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epsom derby 2018

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By:
lewisham ranger
When: 25 May 18 09:07
ok. but none of those were favourites and of the ones that failed how many ran in the racing post trophy, considered perhaps the premier test for staying two year olds?

he could fail for lack of stamina, I guess it's possible, but I can't recall an O'brien quality horse like this where he's come out and said this will go for the triple crown etc and then it's not even stayed the distance.

for me the stamina issue seems a bit like straw clutching.
By:
Sankara
When: 25 May 18 09:08
Hawk Wing.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 25 May 18 09:11
you say king of kings was a certain non stayer but the horse was by sadlers wells, and later on he was found to be lame by the vet. doubt he would have been competitive over a mile that day.

I mean there are certain types like rhodedendron and hawk wing that have been seemingly "outstayed" by more stamina laden types that have a similar level of class in the oaks and derby respectively, but it seems to me that very few O'brien horses have fallen in a hole in the straight and failed to get home at all, at least the more fancied ones.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 25 May 18 09:13

Sankara 25 May 18 09:08 Joined: 18 Sep 10 | Topic/replies: 361 | Blogger: Sankara's blog
Hawk Wing.


yeah I mentioned hawk wing but even then you have to have a quality horse to beat it, for example i think he beat the third that day by about ten lengths.
By:
kincsem
When: 25 May 18 09:15
Saxon Warrior is by Deep Impact out of Maybe (out of Sumora)

Maybe produced Saxon Warrior and Pavlenko (see above).
Neither has won beyond 8f yet.
Pavlenko beyond 8 furlongs: 8th; 5th; 10th; 15th; 4th
Interestingly Pavlenko moved up from 8f to 12f (8th of 10; 5th of 13), was brought back to 7f (won) and 8f (3rd), was again run at 9f and 12f (3 runs without success), and was brought back down to 8f for her last two runs.

Sumora, 2nd dam of Saxon Warrior
Runs: 5f x 9; 6f x 2; 7f x 1
Wins: 5f x 2

Sumora produced
Luckbealadytonight: 6f x 4; 8f x 3
Maybe: 6f x 1; 7f x 4; 8f x 3; 12f x 1 (5th in English Oaks)
Fluff: 8f x 3; 12f x 1 (7th)
Promise To Be True: 7f x 4; 8f x 2

It was the dam of Sumora, Rain Flower, who produced the English Oaks 12f winner, Dancing Rain (by Danehill Dancer).

You can see that 8 of 9 runs by Maybe, the dam of Saxon Warrior, were at 8f or less.
And the 12 runs of Sumora, the dam of Maybe, were almost all at 5f (9 of 12).
We are relying on Deep Impact to provide the stamina to Saxon Warrior.
By:
Sankara
When: 25 May 18 09:26
True, but the third was a blatant non-stayer too, and High Chaparral wasn't exceptional. Can easily see something like Hazapour, Delano or Young Rascal being as good as HC at this point.
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 25 May 18 09:31
Saxon Warrior fans only have the trip to worry about. Going up 4 furlongs is enough to think, who knows?

I wouldn't be worrying about the camber or him regressing considering he's a 3yo who as only run 4 times. 2,000 guineas didn't look like a peak performance either, looked like he'd improve for that.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 25 May 18 09:34
weren't there the same doubts about golden horn staying, as on pedigree he wasn't supposed to, and he ended up hacking up? Also you fail to mention that one of his grand sires is galileo, a strong influence for stamina.

I seem to recall dosage index expert steve miller saying in previous years that an ideal dosage index for a derby winner was about 1.0, too much higher than that and they are unlikely to stay, much lower and they will probably be too slow.

saxon warrior has a dosage index of .87, which seems ideal. by contrast roaring lion has a dosage index of 2.67, which would be higher than any derby winner in recent history.

last ten winners dosage index:

1. wings of eagles 0.57
2.harzand 1.40
3. golden horn 1.38
4. australia 0.67
5. ruler of the world 0.77
6. camelot 0.68
7. pour moi 0.57
8. workforce 1.00
9. sea the stars 1.67
10. new approach 0.58

so 0.87 looking at those numbers looks absolutely ideal. by contrast hawk wing mentioned above had a dosage index of 2.00.
By:
kincsem
When: 25 May 18 09:58
lewisham ranger
Every horse that finishes down the field is found to be lame or have a heart irregularity.
This is about the stud value,
Nobody is going to issue a statement to the press saying their horse was "beaten fair and square", or that we "now realise it is not as good as we thought"
Pennekamp was also found to be lame iirc.


You aren't telling me something I don't know when you say King Of Kings was by Sadler's Wells (I have a 400,000 horse pedigree database)
But the horse was one of the favourites at 11/2 and you can be sure people were saying he has such a "relaxed style of running", he "switches off in his races", that he should get 12f

The point is Aidan O'Brien does put horses in the Derby who will fail due to lack of stamina.
The owners decide what will run.
They are in the business of selling stallion covers.

I can't be sure about Saxon Warrior staying or not staying.
But it has to be seen, and in my mind there are doubts.

Deep Impact won at 15f and 16f.
My concern about those races is the Japanese style of long distance racing.
The tracks are very firm, flat, with big sweeping bends.
The field travels in a large group at high speed, a bit like a cycling peleton.
This must provide an aerodynamic benefit to a horse hidden in the group.
Then near the finish the winner comes wide from the back of the peleton and uses speed to win.
This showboating style, often seen by Japanese jockeys in the Arc, has not worked in Europe.
I am not saying we will see this style at Epsom, of course we won't.
But here horse need to take a position early, as the field normally travels in pairs around bends (Epsom and Longchamp)

Ever horse stays 12f.  The question is about sustaining effort over 12f.

With Saxon Warrior we have:
A sire that in one attempt at 12f in France was passed by two horses near the finish, and he was on a drug to improve his breathing.
A sire that on the Racing Post website has only 18 runners in GB/IRE and 10 of his 14 progeny wins were at 7f -9f

The three 12f -13f Deep Impact progeny wins were
New World Order - a 12f Southwell AW Maiden race win - the horse won this maiden as a 5yo on his 10th run
Wisconsin - a 12.5f Tipperary Maiden.  His next race he was 12th of 13 in the Queen's Vase 14f at Ascot btn 29l, then 5th of 7 (14f),  and 8th of 9 (13f)
Love Conquers - a 12.5f Newcastle AW Maiden as a 3yo on his 6th attempt

Sorry for going into so such detail, but is anyone having a look at facts?

Saxon Warrior's other parent, his dam, Maybe
A dam that ran at 7f and 8f, and once at 12f (reasonable effort).
A second dam that was a 5f sprinter.
By:
jedi sophie
When: 25 May 18 10:00
Have to object to High Chapparal not being Top Class. Dear me, won g1 at 2. Won a Derby. Won 2 breeders cup races, and ran 2 big races in Arc.
What more can a horse do fps.?

Loved that horse, so genuine and tough. Battered Hawk wing in derby who was also top class,non starter granted.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 25 May 18 10:19
agreed again to say high chapparal wasn't top class seems bonkers.
By:
jedi sophie
When: 25 May 18 10:26
Wonderful Racehorse.
Only down bit disappointing as a stallion.
By:
kincsem
When: 25 May 18 10:51
lewisham ranger
weren't there the same doubts about golden horn staying, as on pedigree he wasn't supposed to, and he ended up hacking up?


I hold up my hands and admit I posted on here and elsewhere that I had strong doubts about Golden Horn staying the Derby distance.
The problem was his dam, Fleche d’Or was unraced, so it was difficult to guess based on the Plusvital Equinome C.C, C.T, T.T classifications if Golden horn was a C.C or a C.T.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

Also you fail to mention that one of his grand sires is Galileo, a strong influence for stamina.

I know Maybe’s dam is Galileo.

It has not been made public the Equiniome classification of Galileo, but in my data I have guessed he is a T.T (stamina), and my other guess is Sumora, the other parent of maybe is a C.C (sprinter) so Maybe must be a C.T as she gets one from each parent.
If Deep Impact is a T.T  then Saxon Warrior could be a T.T (stayer) or a C.T (middle distance).
But in my data (guesses) I have the parents of Deep Impact, Sunday Silence as a C.T, and also have Wind In Her Hair as a C.T, so it is likely Deep Impact is a C.T.
If Deep Impace is a C.T and Maybe is a C.T then it is 25%  likely Saxon Warrior is a C.C (sprinter), 50% a C.T (middle), 25% a T.T.

It is bad policy to use the damsire as proof of stamina.
Borderlescott won 7 x 5f and 7 x 6f.
His damsire Touching Wood, won the English St Leger 14f and the irish St Leger 14f.
Borderlescott’s sire Compton Place was a C.C, His dam Jeewan a C.T (her sire Touching Wood a T.T).
Obviously Jeewan C.T inherited a C from her dam Adebah.
Borderlescott got a C from Compton Place and a C from the C.T of his dam Jeewan.
And the T.T (staying influence) of Bordellescott’ s sire Touching Wood T.T did not pass down to him.

Yes, Galileo T.T is a strong influence for stamina, but he is the damsire of Saxon Warrior, not the sire, and a damsire T.T may or may not pass to the runner.

As an aside this week I paid for Plusvital / Equinome tests for my mare and her foal, and am waiting the results.

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

I seem to recall dosage index expert steve miller saying in previous years that an ideal dosage index for a derby winner was about 1.0, too much higher than that and they are unlikely to stay, much lower and they will probably be too slow.

saxon warrior has a dosage index of .87, which seems ideal. by contrast roaring lion has a dosage index of 2.67, which would be higher than any derby winner in recent history.

last ten winners dosage index:

1. wings of eagles 0.57
2.harzand 1.40
3. golden horn 1.38
4. australia 0.67
5. ruler of the world 0.77
6. camelot 0.68
7. pour moi 0.57
8. workforce 1.00
9. sea the stars 1.67
10. new approach 0.58

so 0.87 looking at those numbers looks absolutely ideal. by contrast hawk wing mentioned above had a dosage index of 2.00.


Why not put up the Dosage Index of the horses that finished 10th in the English Derby for the last ten years?
I doubt the numbers would differ much.

Please forget the Dosage Index as a guide to anything.
“Dosage index expert Steve Millar” …… says who, the paper who prints his articles?
I wrote my first Dosage Index program in 1993 and sent it to a well known racing systems journalist.  I also sent a copy to the programmer of the commercial pedigree package I use.

I have calculated DI numbers for every Group 1, Group 2, Group 3 race in IRE, GB, FR, GER, ITY from 1900 to 2015.
Believe me when I say it is not a useful guide.
Besides ignoring some important sires it also adds in sires after the event to correct figures
“we have prompted XXXXXXXXX to a chef de race sire in the Brilliant/Intermediate category ….”

See my thread here for my questioning on the Dosage Index
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057435498
snippet from my thread linked in the line above
"Pharis is categorised as a sire of speedier stock than Nureyev although his group winners were at 1.8f longer distances"
Even if the Dosage Index was a good guide (and it is not) my analysis of the chef de race sires they use show that they got many of the categorisations (Brilliant; Intermediate; Classic; Solid; professional) wrong in my opinion.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 25 May 18 11:20
I'm not an expert on it kinscem, I think you are probably right about the dosage index thing as you'd know a lot more about it than me (or most for that matter.)
By:
Figgis
When: 25 May 18 11:51
Couldn't agree more about kincsem's summing up of the dosage theory. Some people may get some use out of it but when I had a look into it many years ago it seemed the work of a charlatan. Still don't think lack of stamina will be SW's undoing though Wink
By:
kincsem
When: 25 May 18 12:45
I think Ballydoyle / Coolmore will have had Saxon Warrior tested and I would be surprised if he is not a C.T.
Most winners of the English Derby will be C.T, but some were T.T (e.g Galileo).
Coolmore in recent years have been sending sprinting mares (C.C) to Galileo (T.T) and Montjeu (T..T) to get guaranteed C.T types.

My guesses at English Derby winners that were T.T
Relko; Royal Palace; Blakeney; Morston; Shirley Heights; Teenoso; Slip Anchor; Shahrastani; Commander In Chief; Lammtarra; Sinndar; Galileo; Authorized.


For the record how did "Our Dosage expert Steve Miller" do in the 2000 Guineas and 1000 Guineas

2000 Guineas
1) Elarqam 5/1 4th
2) Gustav Klimt 4/1 6th
3) Masar 5/2f 3rd

1000 Guineas
1) Happily 11/4f 3rd
2) Wild Illusion 11/2 4th
3) Laurens 7/1 2nd
By:
kincsem
When: 25 May 18 13:00
I was there when High Chaparral won, and was so convinced he would win I did not have a bet on him to win the Derby.
My bet was a double on Kazzia 4/1 in the Oaks, and High Chaparral 9/4 in the Derby, and the double paid 16.25/1.
I also had the Trifecta (div £292.90 to £1) in the Derby 1) High Chaparral 2) Hawk Wing 3) Moon Ballad .
(Is this an aftertiming record .. 16 years Happy)

It had nothing to do with the Dosage Index, although I certainly knew the numbers for the field.
At Leopardstown after High Chaparral won the Derrinstown I immediately went to the parade ring to see him.
He came in as relaxed as he was before he went out, not out of breath in the slightest after winning conceding 7 pounds, although his pacemaker Nostradamus was on the point of collapse.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 25 May 18 13:13
I was there that day as well. Only been to two derby's that one and the high-rise one. plan to go as well this year.

from memory I think I backed the other godolphin horse (not moon ballad) that was lapped Laugh
By:
impossible123
When: 25 May 18 14:54
'kincsem', I bow to your superior knowledge of DI and Breeding. Given the DI of Roaring Lion is 2.64 - that is high. I do not think he'll stay a truly run Gp 1 12f race; lay him for a place at just odds against here, and back the other AOB's inmates.
By:
Figgis
When: 25 May 18 15:24
Please forget the Dosage Index as a guide to anything
By:
Figgis
When: 25 May 18 15:24
Seems to have somehow missed the whole point.
By:
kincsem
When: 25 May 18 16:12
lewisham ranger
I was there that day as well. Only been to two derby's that one and the high-rise one.


City Honours 2nd beaten a head by High-Rise was the second leg of my Oaks / Derby double, 20/1 (won) and 11/1 (2nd).
I was there and watched two horses ar5es heading together to the finish. Sad
Although I live in Dublin I went to the Oaks & Derby for 10 to 15 years.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 25 May 18 16:27
that's ul and another good shout. Can't even recall what I backed for that race was so long ago. might have been the filly and one or two others. Certainly got nowhere near the winner. was city honours a robert sangster horse?

just remember watching it from the hill and could hardly see a thing, but being wowed by the atmosphere.

you did well to make the trip, people are so lazy these days with internet shopping/24 hour sky sports you can just do everything at home
By:
kincsem
When: 25 May 18 16:54
City Honours was a Godolphin horse.
He was given a very good Derby ride by John Reid.
By:
Sandown
When: 25 May 18 21:07
Excellent contribution Kincem.

Up to now I was entirely convinced that SW was a 12f horse with the speed to win G1's at shorter distances - 8f/10f which I believe to be the ideal formula for finding the Derby winner. He reminds me of Nashwan in both his manner of racing and his physique (although memory may serve me badly on that.)

Deep Impact may be Japanese but he traces back to Nearco through Hail To Reason as did Roberto's, Deep impact himself ran some incredibly fast times in Japan at 12f to 16f and I have no issues with stamina either for DI or SW. As for the possibility of SW regressing, well AOB has won 300 G1's and I will take that as convincing evidence that the man knows a thing or two about training racehorses.Given paddock judges views on the horse looking like he was carrying condition, the fact that he did not run race at too fast a pace, I take the view that the risk of him regressing is slim.

The horse has beaten RL twice, and he looks likely to beat him again at 12f imo.

At A/P prices SW is no value at evens but I will be backing him on the day if he is odds  against. He is the most likely winner by far but I can see a case for backing RL each way and will play him as well, on the day. I can't see anything else with a high enough chance of being involved with a win chance.
By:
Figgis
When: 25 May 18 22:49
Before Saxon Warrior, O'Brien had won the Guineas eight times. One of those, Footstepsinthesand, never ran again. Of the seven that did return three ran subpar on their next start. That is including Gleneagles who still won the Irish Guineas but that renewal was a Gp1 in name only and he struggled that day. None of this has any bearing on how SW will perform next time and has no connection with why I think there's a good chance SW will regress. It does show, however, that no matter how good a trainer O'Brien might be he is not immune to his Guineas winners disappointing afterwards.
By:
Sandown
When: 26 May 18 09:45
What you say Figgis about AOB's record is true but possibly misleading in that it ignores the context in this case that AOB & co have long considered that SW will be better over further than a mile, have had the Derby (and even the St L apparently) in mind so will have been trained with an eye on the future. The horse has apparently grown in stature and paddock judges considered it to be carrying condition and would come on for the run.The horse also showed that he was a relaxed sort. On top of which the times both final and sectional do not indicate an overly demanding 2000 Gns. Putting that all together, along with AOB's phenomenal record in G1's, I am not concerned about the horse regressing in its next run. Only my opinion, of course, but weighing evidence and making judgments is what we as punters do all the time. That said, I don't think that you need a negative case for SW in order to give RL a major chance and at the prices he represents better value.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 May 18 11:04
Sandown, I take the point that the horse has grown in stature, and that may well mean he can improve again. I'm certainly not dismissing that as a possibility, as each horse is an individual. It's just that when I did my own research on the matter, admittedly many years ago, I found when a horse was reported as having grown from 2 to 3 it didn't have a great correlation with it actually showing immediate improvement, the findings were random. The same goes for when a horse was described as not being 100% fit, despite showing a high level of form at that time. Obviously if one isn't fit and finishes down the field it is more of a factor.

I've also seen the Guineas described as a slowly run race. I accept that they didn't go flat out early on but that isn't necessary as long as the pace quickens up early enough to produce a decent overall time. Unlike last year when Churchill won I don't believe this year's race was slowly run, although I know that will be a contentious view to anyone who has used one allowance for the card. It wasn't a great time performance as far as Guineas go, but for me that's as good as they all were on the day.
By:
impossible123
When: 26 May 18 13:03
In a nutshell if SW stays 12f he'll win even if RL stays too ie 'evens' for SW staying. But between SW and RL who'd have a better chance of staying 12f in a Gp 1 race? I'd think SW is much more likely given their DI, breeding and trainer's opinion and race programme. Hope the Coolmore "boys" show their money on race day for him, and I think they will.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 May 18 13:56
Sandown, what was your opinion of Australia after his Guineas run? I said on here that he was good odds for the Derby at around 7/4, or whatever he went out to, I might've even said any odds against, and collected, but in my view in terms of speed he actually ran 8lbs below his Guineas effort and never really recovered his Guineas form afterwards. I have Australia's third 3lbs ahead of Saxon Warrior's winning effort but the big difference this year for me is SW has a smart rival in Roaring Lion, whereas Australia didn't.
By:
pipedreamer
When: 26 May 18 14:12
Just seen on telly,question to Aiden O'Brien.Before the Guineas,did you have the Triple Crown at the back of your mind".
Am I  Rainman or something,can't believe the question seeming they had a go with their much smaller Camelot.Anybody agree ?.
I cannot comprehend some of the stuff in the media.Just seen Ed Dunlop being interviewed about his horse.Good luck to him, but I reckon his horse could well be burned off up front with O'Briens pacemakers pushing him to go faster.
I see the Derby probably being one of the fastest runs ever,and Deep Impacts sire with all his stamina will test all the others
By:
keeping silent
When: 26 May 18 16:17
Does anybody have any opinions on Hazapour ? I backed it as an ew alternative to SW after it won the Trial . Considering going in again at 14s  EW.
By:
charwell.
When: 26 May 18 16:36
I said it was a terrible Guineas and the Irish 2,000 confirms it. Would look to back something that didn;t run in it tbh.
By:
impossible123
When: 26 May 18 17:28
I think the ground could be responsible for the lacklustre showing of Elarqam or possibly too keen given the tactic employed by AOB's inmates. Gustav Klimt (GK) was badly positioned, and did not stay; US Navy Flag nearly nicked it. The form is nothing special and I do not think GK will be running over 8f in the future (ever).
By:
kincsem
When: 26 May 18 18:14
I was at the Irish 2000 Guineas.
The ground was firm but Elarqam was struggling a long way from home.
Time to think again about Saxon Warrior.
What he beat was well beaten at The Curragh.
By:
impossible123
When: 26 May 18 19:29
But it is still the best form available, correct? Otherwise, RL could be considered in the same boat. Outside 2000G form what is the next best credible form then? To me, the most likely would be the Derrinstown which brings Hazapour into play majorly; I cannot see AOB's inmates overturning that form, and the British trials do not look good enough to me either.

There is excellent value to be had outside Saxon Warrior (SW) and Roaring Lion (RL), I believe; a bigger price expected too for SW here if Happily is beaten or AOB does not win the Irish 1000G tomorrow, I firmly believe.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 May 18 20:51
If Saxon Warrior is supposedly a winner if he stays, supposedly even money to stay, and his price is available at only very slightly under evens then it's baffling that there is excellent value to be had outside of him. If he's virtually the right price then where exactly is the market underpriced to create all this excellent value?
By:
mr_sykes
When: 26 May 18 20:52
thought Delano Roosevelt wasnt given a hard time in Derrinstown,held up initially and appeared to make some eye catching head way late on,whip was only used twice too,would probably be the each way for me at this stage with a step up in trip to come,the Aga Khan was more all out on the day...
By:
PeteTheBloke
When: 26 May 18 21:45
Figgis - I think you'll find that a bigger price is better value. Stands to reason.
Don't forget (and I hope you don't mind me pointing this out) the bigger the price,
the cheaper it is to buy - it's not like Tesco, you see? So, regardless of the
perceived chance of winning, when you bet at a big price (i.e. cheaply) you are
getting more value. Every little helps (if you'll forgive me again).
By:
impossible123
When: 26 May 18 22:00
I think Delano Roosevelt was tapped for speed when the pace quickened just after the bend unlike Hazapour who not only quickened when the pace quickened, and again to take it up fairly easily to go past The Pentagon in a matter of strides. I hope Dettori does not play his hand until the 2f or 1f marker from home.

I'll play Hazapour against Roaring Lion in a match bet, and the odds will be generous too, I think.
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