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epsom derby 2018

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Replies: 766
By:
The Headmaster
When: 23 May 18 12:33
Yeah, I get the feeling O'Brien's pecking order would not quite mirror the market's, with The Pentagon a good deal shorter at BetBallydoyle.com.  You can definitely make the odd excuse for his defeats.
By:
Figgis
When: 23 May 18 14:20
Headmaster, just out of curiosity, once into the straight, does the camber run the entire width of the track?
By:
The Headmaster
When: 23 May 18 16:17
This is the best picture I can find, although it doesn't do it total justice

https://goo.gl/images/chWNW1

It's not just the camber, the whole straight rolls up and down too.  When the waves are at their highest the camber is not quite so pronounced (I think the near side is a little less undulating - hence the 5f draw advantage - so the camber evens out a bit when the far side rises), but when the straight dips again, the far side sometimes dips harder, which accentuates the camber.  I'm sure this is why you see horses dying/being collared on that rail in all sorts of races through the season.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 23 May 18 17:29
who cares about the camber, seriously. it's about who the best horse is.

as for horses that battle back are superstars, sorry but I can't buy into that theory. horses battle back all the time, doesn't make them dancing brave. if they were that good they wouldn't have been headed in the first place.
By:
luckyme
When: 23 May 18 18:20
Paddy power just pushed out Delano to 16s from 12s this afternoon.
By:
Figgis
When: 23 May 18 18:46
Headmaster, thanks.
By:
Figgis
When: 23 May 18 18:55
Wondering why some punters think Roaring Lion has stamina doubts? Can't see any doubts myself.
By:
Sankara
When: 23 May 18 19:31
Outstayed by a re-opposing rival in the RP Trophy (or dogged it, which would be worse), the dam didn't stay 10f and he's related to milers on that side, although the sire stayed. York provided no evidence of stamina as it was run at a crawl.
By:
Figgis
When: 23 May 18 19:36
Was beaten a neck in the RPT and there was 3 lengths back to the rest. Would be very surprising to me if a 2yo could run over a mile at that pace in that style and not get 12f as a 3yo.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 23 May 18 19:49
the whole thing about staying is overrated, in my view if a horse can get 10 furlongs it can get a mile and a half no problem.

have you ever tried running around york racetrack? I have, and it's huge. if you can stay 10 furlongs there imo you have no problems getting 1 mile four at epsom. Crazy

although having said that I always think of lush lashes falling in a hole half way up the home straight in the oaks Crazy
By:
impossible123
When: 23 May 18 19:50
If one was referring to Roaring Lion I think the most poignant moment was Gosden's reticence to commit him here immediately post his Dante win usually the most significant of any Derby trials. Also, 10f mooted as his optimum trip, I believe.
By:
Sankara
When: 23 May 18 20:01
Is that the same Lush Lashes who had won her ten-furlong trial at York by 5 lengths?
By:
Figgis
When: 23 May 18 20:03
LR, she did prove that she got 12f afterwards though and even though she ran a bit like a non stayer at Epsom I think there was some other reason for the Oaks failure. One of those things that can only be guessed at, like does impossible123 talk in that manner down the pub?! Wink
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 23 May 18 20:33
LaughLaughLaugh

if he did he would have had his head kicked in by now Wink

as for lush lashes, yeah maybe she wasn't "conditioned" to run over 12 furlongs at that point in her career. seem to recall passage of time also failing to get home (or maybe she wasn't good enough) after winning the musidora as well, so maybe there is something in this non-staying stuff.
By:
Figgis
When: 23 May 18 20:56
My opinion is I think there are 3yos that can win over 10f but find 12f too far, but often the clues are there as 2yos with the ones highly likely to stay. Roaring Lion's performance in the  RPT was a definite display of stamina as well as speed (same goes for the winner of course). Added to that Gosden started him out over a mile as a 2yo and never once dropped him back in trip, running him a few times with give in the ground. Doesn't seem the type of 2yo campaign you'd give a horse if you had even the slightest stamina doubts. His past talk about RL being (at least) a 10f horse is not surprising, as unless the runner's stamina is already proven trainers usually only guarantee slow horses to stay further.
By:
mr nice
When: 23 May 18 22:07
Hello,

John Gosden was absolutely delighted with Roaring Lion after the Dante, in my opinion.

My reasoning being the fact that he had time to massage Matt Chapman's ego with his jokey remark comparing Roaring Lion to Chapman in his youth. Gosden not the the type of person, again in my opinion to banter with the likes of Chapman if he wasn't in happy, confident form. To be fair who would? But that is my point.

Think about it, it's logical and reasonable enough wouldn't you agree?

The Derby was always the target. It's starting to get very interesting now. Can't wait!

All the very best to everyone.
By:
mr nice
When: 23 May 18 22:18
For me that seemingly innocuous remark spoke volumes regarding Gosden's confidence in his horse.

In my opinion.

Ciao.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 24 May 18 09:08
yeah the more I think about it the more I like roaring lion. surprised more isn't been made of that dante peformance. Ok I don't know about saxon warrior, but I'm convinced that if the likes of young rascal or hazapour had run at york, they would have been crushed just the same.

if saxon warrior doesn't get home, then the way is clear for the lion.
By:
kincsem
When: 24 May 18 09:41
Posted by me on another forum
..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Deep Impact
I wonder about the quality of the staying races he won in Japan at 15f and 16f.
Japanese St Leger 15f: the first four horses were sired by Sunday Silence.
Tenno Sho Spring 16f: the first three horses were sired by Sunday Silence.

His middle distance races:
12f firm in 2:23.30
12.5f in 2:31.90
12f (Arc 3rd) in 2:26.30
12f in 2:25.10
12.5f in 2:31.90
These imo are not really staying races, run on pancake flat tracks on very firm ground.
His son, Saxon Warrior, runs in the English Derby where a typical winning time is about 2:35, about 10/12 seconds slower, due to the 140 foot Epsom hill.

Deep Impact's sire, Sunday Silence won the Kentucky Derby 10f, and the Preakness Stakes 10f, but was beaten 8l by Easy Goer in the Belmont Stakes 12f on fast ground in a fast time.
Deep Impact's dam, Wind In Her Hair, was 2nd in the English Oaks to Balanchine, and 4th in the Irish Oaks. She ran 12f or longer seven times and won once at 12f in Germany (Group 1, easily).

Clutching at more straws let's look at the dam of Saxon Warrior, Maybe.
Runs: 9 times, winning 5, 1 3rd (wins 6f x 1; 7f x 4; all as a 2yo).
Distances: 6f x 1; 7f x 4; 8f x 3; 12f x 1
The 12f run was a 5th in the English Oaks.

My slight reservations about Saxon Warrior are:
a sire with doubtful staying credentials
a dam who only won as a 2yo
..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

I said above that I am looking for reasons to oppose the favourite, Saxon Warrior, and tried the "won't stay" angle.

Deep Impact was 3rd in the 2400m / 12f Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe and was later disqualified
"tested positive for Ipratropium, an inhaled substance which aids the respiratory system and is banned in horse racing in Europe, but not Japan."
"We weren't aware Deep Impact had anything as serious as asthma but we know he had treatment for his breathing," equine director Keiji Nishimura said."

I see on attheraces and elsewhere that because Deep Impact won at 3200m / 16f in Japan his son, Saxon Warrior, should stay the Epsom 12f.
Deep Impact may have won at extreme distances in Japan but that was: on medication; on firm ground; on flat tracks.
Deep Impact didn't fully see out the 12f Arc when on medication, in the 7th fastest Arc at Longchamp
"led 2f out, soon under pressure, headed 1f out, no extra final 100yds, finished 3rd, disqualified".

On the JBIS website: Japanese Bloodstock Information System (English Version), the comment about Deep Impact in the Arc was "FAIL TO FINISH".
By:
Figgis
When: 24 May 18 11:20
For me Saxon Warrior hasn't looked even remotely short of stamina in any of his races, just the opposite. O'Brien started him as a 2yo over a mile and kept him to that trip, which is what he does with most of his runners that are thought of as more middle distance types. As much as I'm against SW at the price I just can't see him failing due to lack of stamina.

I think if you're opposing SW it has to be either that you think he might not be in the same form as the Guineas or that something can improve to give him more of a race. I reckon there's an odds on chance he peaked in the Guineas and it could be downhill from here. If he is beaten then connections will probably blame lack of stamina if it seems at all plausible, but he could still be worth opposing if dropped back in trip.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 24 May 18 11:55
interesting thoughts figgis but you haven't actually given any reasoning why he might regress, is there any logic behind it?

and didn't he look at newmarket like he'd grown over the winter?
By:
kincsem
When: 24 May 18 11:55
Saxon Warrior has a full sibling (same sire and dam) one year older, a filly named Pavlenko (2014).

Now imo comparing colts and fillies is tricky.
She was rated 92.
Her one win was at 7f as a 3yo.
Her two placings (3rd) were at 8f as a 3yo.

She tried 12f three times:
8/10 btn 11 1/2l (Group 3);
5/13 btn 6 1/4 l (Maiden);
4/9 btn 5 3/4 l (Listed).
By:
Figgis
When: 24 May 18 12:19
LR, because my findings over many years is most horses are only able to run to a peak time performance a limited number of times. There are other factors such as how exactly the performances were achieved, age, etc. There is no point in me plotting exactly why on here as they are my own ratings and will obviously differ with how others view/rate his performances. It isn't black and white. I don't believe in statements such as this horse 'will bounce', etc, but you can say there is a strong chance one will.

For me, he's more likely to put up a regressive performance than not next time out. It's the same as I felt about Caravaggio after his Commonwealth Cup win. He did regress like I thought but obviously some don't. I said I think his chances of regressing make him more like a 5/2 chance than odds on. So that still puts him in a strong position and the second most likely winner, in my view.
By:
kincsem
When: 24 May 18 14:25
Here is a snippet of information that might interest forumites.

Queen's Vase (Group 2) Royal Ascot. 23 June 2017, 13 runners, 3yo, 9-0, good to firm
12th Wisconsin (Deep Impact - Peeping Fawn (Danehill)), A P O'Brien. btn 29 l
13th Fierce Impace (Deep Impact - Keiai Gerbera (Smarty Jones)), David Simcock, btn 34l

Peeping Fawn was 2nd in the English Oaks to Light Shift, beaten 1/2 l.
Peeping Fawn won the Irish Oaks from Light Shift, by 3 1/2 l.
Keiai Gerbera won at 6f x2 and 7f x4 in Japan
By:
kincsem
When: 24 May 18 14:25
*Queen's Vase 14f
By:
mr nice
When: 24 May 18 14:31
Kincsem,

Very interesting and informative stats,very much appreciated.

Ps Has anyone noticed the slight drift and drying up of support for SW on the exchange?
By:
kincsem
When: 24 May 18 14:52
I posted this in Irish Sports

Irish 2000 Guineas
I was looking at the form and I remember posting about Symbolization.
He ran on English 2000 Guineas day in the 17:20 race, a 0-105 3yo 1m handicap carrying 9-7, winning in 1m 36.94 (7 runners)
The English 2000 Guineas was run earlier at 15:35, won by Saxon Warrior, carrying 9-0, in 1m 36.55 (14 runners).
As Elarqam in 4th was 2 1/4 l behind Saxon Warrior, or about 0.4s, that would put Elarqam and Symbolization on almost identical times.

I know one was a handicap, and Group 1s tend to be much tougher, but Symbolization and Elarqam ran identical times, and Symbolization was carrying more weight.
I've put €30 on at 15.21.
If Elarqam and Gustav Kilimt are beaten in the Irish 2000 Guineas the English Derby market might get a shake up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmlX_ZMusUo
I agree with the commentator. Happy
Symbilization was conceding 12 pounds to the runner-up.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 24 May 18 16:17
interesting stuff figgis.

why do you think horses regress?
By:
Figgis
When: 24 May 18 16:58
Hard and fast races take a lot out of most horses. Some can go through the pain barrier more than others, some are just lucky in being more physically robust. But more often than not when a horse has reached a peak it will put in a weaker effort afterwards. It isn't an exact science, but I reckon there's a big chance Saxon Warrior has peaked, at least for the time being.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 24 May 18 17:23
thanks for that figgis mate, I've never thought about it that way, but I guess that makes sense.

when pundits talking about the bounce factor it's nearly always in relation to when they've come back from a long absence.
By:
Figgis
When: 24 May 18 18:06
Yeah that seems to be the case in the media but I'd say that probably applies more to NH racing, which I don't bother with anymore. There are horses like Dylan Thomas, who may have not been the absolute best horse in recent years but I found it remarkable how he ran in fast race after fast race as a 4yo and almost ran to the same mark every time. I can't know for sure how Saxon Warrior will run next time, I'm just making a generalisation on how I'd expect most runners with his profile to perform and that makes him underpriced.

Also I think there being only being 4 weeks between the 2 classics this year could make his task more difficult. Although the last runner to achieve the feat was Camelot, another O'Brien runner, and it's possible his training methods helped with that, it's impossible to say. If it was very weak opposition SW could maybe get away with running a bit below his best but I think Roaring Lion has the potential to be an above average winner.
By:
the istabraq years
When: 24 May 18 18:10
Firstly your dealing with AOB and the full power of coolmore here..im pretty sure he would of had SW exactly where he wanted him RE the derby around 2000 G time which was stated pre race...the fact that he was on the tubby side ( I was there paddock side and can confirm he was def not hard fit imo ) only adds to the performance which I believe simply proves his absolute ability to win in that fashion.

AOb is well known for his horses to keep busy and improve from run to run..i can certainly understand your idea in his going backwards from the 2000 G with horses like Gustov Klimt recently and Churchill last year doing just that but on the flip side we have Gaints Causeway, Rock of Gibraltar, Winter, peeping Fawn, Highland Reel etc etc , horses who kept going on......the list is endless in fact.

I agree 4/6 is short now roaring Lion runs plus one or two other interesting types BUT I ll be shocked if he bounces as it were..it seems much more likely to my eyes that he is just a different class and IF he improves for the trip and his first run as AOB believes we could be seeing something very rare indeed and something to enjoy.


I for one hope so anyway.
By:
the istabraq years
When: 24 May 18 18:11
PS on that proviso also then Cracksman must be to short on the Friday  after his Ganay romp !!!!!!!!!!
By:
Figgis
When: 24 May 18 18:38
Istabraq, of the 3yos you've mentioned there was only Rock of Gibraltar who I'd say would fit the bill of possibly regressing next time. He did have very easy opposition next time though. As I say it isn't black and white. Some go on to perform exactly the same or even better, just that more don't. I know O'Brien wouldn't have wanted to over train him for the Guineas but I'd be surprised if he wasn't as good as race fit, despite how he may have appeared.

You could be right though, we may see something special. Even if he just matches his Guineas form to the pound I wouldn't expect him to be beaten.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 24 May 18 18:41
He certainly didn't look fully fit in the Guineas and I would expect improvement rather than regression.
By:
the istabraq years
When: 24 May 18 18:51
Again good points made..thats the game were in I guess, all about those opinions.

I may look back and see I was blinded but maybe its the romance of it and why I got in the game all those eyears ago wanting to see the El Gran Senors and Dancing Brave s of this world....I hope and believe this fella can go to those heights as looking at him at HQ he just looks perfect

Relax s, settles, quickens and stays ( he is a tank )...re watching his racing post win he is brave too , no doubt he has the guts to match.

As always time will tell us all.

All the best
By:
impossible123
When: 24 May 18 19:03
If he's as good as Australia on the day that will do me just fine,...bring on the Leger, I say.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 24 May 18 19:25
figgis theory more likely to get him beat than the staying thing. can anyone else remember an o'brien horse that failed for lack of stamina?

although still feel that the biggest factor he has to overcome is the opposition, as does roaring lion. one win in one race doesn't prove that you're the best of your generation, he still has to go and prove it at epsom, whether he's improved or regressed or whatever.

camelot had a penalty kick at epsom, that was a dire race, think this year somewhat different.
By:
Madhu
When: 24 May 18 19:25
I’d find it difficult to oppose Saxon Warrior from the "won't stay" angle based on his breeding considering his family has already produced winners of both the Epsom Derby and Oaks.

Wind In Her Hair, the dam of Deep Impact was out of Burghclere, a daughter Highclere and therefore a half-sister to Height of Fashion who produced Nashwan, Nayef and Unfuwain. Saxon Warrior’s second dam is closely related to Dancing Rain and his third dam is a three-parts-sister to Dr Devious.

Saxon Warrior is from Deep Impact’s eighth crop that was conceived in the year after Gentildonna became the only horse to have won the Japan Cup twice after having been the first three-year-old filly to win the race, yet her dam Donna Blini won both the Cherry Hinton Stakes and Cheveley Park Stakes for Brian Meehan, and her sire was the John Gosden trained sprinter Bertolini by Danzig. Deep Impact has sired alongside juvenile champions, multiple winners of both the Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) and Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby), and a winner of the Kikuka Sho (Japanese St.Leger - 3000m), if you’re looking to find a fault in Saxon Warrior stamina-wise, his page is not where you should look.

Roaring Lion is interesting considering he is grey/roan. I’m not an expert on equine coat colour genetics but it appears he gets his grey/roan gene from his dam and grand dam, however, the dominant form of the grey gene is found in his grand sire El Prado. Being a grey/roan is he unique or will he will be bidding to become the fifth grey to win the race and the first since Airborne in 1946 (Gustavus (1821), Tagalie (1912) Mahmoud (1936))? A quick google and the others have consisted of 175 bay or brown; 58 chestnut and two black.
 
I remember looking at the Derby entries before Christmas from an ante-post perspective years ago and coming across the Henry Cecil trained Mighty Yar and scrubbing it instantly because he was a grey and the same since for the likes of Capri last year and dare I say it with this animal. Of the grey horses that come to mind, Kingston Hill finished runner-up to Australia in 2014, as did Silver Patriarch in 1997 and Terimon in 1989, so statistically grey-wise for me he is up against it big time.
   
Following on it may pay to dismiss all of the Galileo’s entered as all three of his Derby winners have been chestnut. Interestingly, one of those, New Approach, is the sire of Masar, who like his Oaks winner Talent is a chestnut!

Deep Impact still also has a potential Derby runner in the Niarchos homebred Study of Man. His second dam is a Storm Cat daughter of Miesque, so is a half-sister to top-class miler Kingmambo (sire of Oaks winner Light Shift, dam of Ulysses) and Prix de Diane winner East Of The Moon. He is not absolutely guaranteed to stay 12f but Miesque is also third dam of 9f Dubai Turf winner Real Steel, another Deep Impact out of a daughter of Storm Cat who ran 2nd beaten a neck in Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger) by Kitasan Black.

Study of Man won the Prix Greffulhe in impressive fashion; the same race Por Moi used as a platform before Epsom. His action suggests he will be much better on faster ground and although quite a late foal, the way Flaxman Stables rushed Ulysses into the Derby on the back of a Newbury maiden win by 8 lengths on his 3rd start, I can definitely see them routing him here for his stallion potential.

It appears that Pascal Bary is considering Jockey Club for both or Naturally High in Chantilly and Study of Man in the Derby, but will give an answer after a time of reflection this weekend. I’m had a bet on him and now have two arrows with Knight To Behold.
By:
kincsem
When: 25 May 18 08:41
lewisham ranger
figgis theory more likely to get him beat than the staying thing. can anyone else remember an o'brien horse that failed for lack of stamina?


1998: Second Empire 10th; King Of Kings 15th
1999: Saffron Walden 9th
2000: Aristotle 10th (possibly just slow)
2003: Brian Boru 16th was a stayer as he won the St Leger later
2004: Meath 14th
2005: Oratorio 10th (10f horse)
2006: Septimus 12th (needed soft?)
2007: Archipenko 17th ... Yellowstone 8th; Acapulco 9th; Admiralofthefleet 10th; Mahler 11th; Anton Chekhov 12th
2008: Frozen Fire 11th; King Of Rome 12th
2011: Seville 11th
2013: Festive Cheer 10th

i must update my file for 2014+

Pacemaker, too slow, didn't stay ... any number of reasons
Certain Non-stayers in bold
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