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epsom derby 2018

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Replies: 766
By:
Figgis
When: 26 May 18 22:35
I think you'll find that a bigger price is better value. Stands to reason.

Is this from the Derek Thompson betting handbook? Wink
By:
mr_sykes
When: 26 May 18 22:50
Hazapour is a Shamardal,Delano might improve for further,would probably go Delano in a match bet v Hazapour over 1m4f myself
By:
mr_sykes
When: 26 May 18 23:00
remember At First Sight finishing 3rd in Derrinstown few years and nearly winning at Epsom,id be hopeful of Delano placing anyway never know
By:
Sandown
When: 26 May 18 23:12
Figgis

Sandown, what was your opinion of Australia after his Guineas run?

A 12f horse with enough speed to run well at 8f at G1 but not fast enough  to win. The one to beat at Epsom and I did back him as sole bet but can't recall what price I go. Betfair SP was 3.5 on my record.

in my view in terms of speed he actually ran 8lbs below his Guineas effort and never really recovered his Guineas form afterwards

It depends on how horses should be rated, speed or collateral form only or both together. His speed figures peaked in the Gns and were considerably higher than subsequent runs but his RP collateral ratings went from 122 (Gns) to 125 (won Derby) to 121 (won Irish Derby) to 129 (won International York) to 125 (sh 2nd Irish Champion). He won 3 more G1's after the Gns but his speed figures were lower. I wouldn't therefore agree that he never recovered his Gns form

I have Australia's third 3lbs ahead of Saxon Warrior's winning effort but the big difference this year for me is SW has a smart rival in Roaring Lion, whereas Australia didn't.

I think that SW did just enough in his Gns to win the race. How much more might he have found if challenged? Plenty I think. Anyway, the issue is whether he might be better or worse at Epsom and I think that he will relish the step up in trip. he didn't really show a top class turn of foot at the end of the race but he was fast enough to beat the milers. At 12f I think he will be travelling nearly at 8f speed and at the end that will give him a big uplift on his figures. I think is a Nashwan type and will be galloping through the line so for me the stamina issue will determine the outcome. Kincem has thrown enough doubts in that respect for me to be less certain than I was initially but I still have confidence in his ability to be better at 12f than 8f.There is still a doubt to my mind with RL at 12f especially given his TOF at 10f but without SW he would be my favourite on his York form. I can't see how he turns the form around unless SW doesn't stay after all- unlikely as  I think he will improve for it.
.
By:
Sandown
When: 26 May 18 23:19
Pete

I think you'll find that a bigger price is better value

Not if his win chance is less than the price, it isn't, whatever the price is. I'll take evens about a 1/2 chance every day of the week rather than 33/1 about a 50/1 chance.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 May 18 23:21
I think SW will have no problem with the step up in trip, it's just his ability to run to form next time out whatever the trip that concerns me. Having since revised my opinion of last year's RPT I don't think Roaring Lion was at his best in the Guineas and he can improve on that.
By:
Sandown
When: 26 May 18 23:27
I think that they have the race between them so for me it really is about how to play the race so as to get a return either way.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 May 18 23:46
Wouldn't disagree with that but just see the only value with Roaring Lion. If I was making a book for the markets I'd obviously still have SW as the favourite, as supply and demand has to be considered. But for my personal book I actually have Roaring Lion as the short priced favourite, with SW around 5/2, so couldn't even have him as a saver with the price he is now. Famous last words but think any other winner is big odds.
By:
PeteTheBloke
When: 27 May 18 08:51
Sandown - I think you might have taken me a bit too seriously.

I was kinda teasing impossible123, but my attempt at humour was probably lost on him too.
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 27 May 18 10:43
Sandown, assume evens and 5/1.Then £600 win Saxon Warrior and £200 win Roaring Lion. Outlay £800, return in either event £1200, profit £400. Perfectly possible but not for me.
By:
Figgis
When: 27 May 18 11:39
Sandown, assuming evens is the price on the day, what price do you think SW should be?
By:
Sandown
When: 27 May 18 12:52
PeteTheBloke

Got me there PeteGrin
By:
Sandown
When: 27 May 18 14:35
Figgis/Feltfair

It's hard to see that SW is any value at evens unless on the day I completely make it a 2 horse race , which whilst I have said he and RL have the race between them doesn't mean that I totally exclude the chances of anything else.To get to that position I have to factor in market moves, going conditions and paddock assessment. Without that info I have SW at 3.0 and RL at 6.5 assuming that all quoted run (16 runners.) I do price up conservatively these days, especially if A/P. On the day I will go shorter if all the signs are positive.


Feltfair. Yes, I could dutch the two as you say but normally I prefer to save on one. The obvious one to save on is the short priced SW and back RL to win money.There again I am leaning at the moment to play RL each way and SW to win. The key issue is just how big I go in and that depends on whether I can get them together to around 80% chance.I have money in hand on SW having traded out at 2.1 but that's just to small money so of no great help.

I guess it comes down to the negatives attached to others rather than any more positives for the front two.
By:
kincsem
When: 27 May 18 15:34
Conclusion by Deep Impact, 10th of 10 runners in the Group 3 10f Gallinule Stakes at The Curragh today
beaten 40 lengths "pushed along over 3f out, soon dropped to rear and eased under 2f out"
By:
Sandown
When: 27 May 18 16:09
Kincem

Conclusion was rated 25 lbs on RPR behind Platinum Warrior. No surprises  there.

Conclusion? No relevance to SW chance in the Derby.
By:
kincsem
When: 27 May 18 16:25
Conclusion? 10f was too far for him
Why don't you check through all the Deep Impact horses that have run in GB/IRE and tell me how they got on over 10f, 12f, and further.
New World Power won a 12f class 5 on the Southwell AW for him.
Saxon Warrior might win the Derby, but I think odds on is terrible odds for a guess.
By:
Sandown
When: 27 May 18 16:59
kincem

I'm not commenting on all the progeny  of DI only that of this single horse being rated 25 lbs behind the winner is not one to use if you are building or establishing a case for DI progeny not staying.

I'm a fan of yours, incidentally, not a critic and your views on SW stamina have had a bearing on my thinking although I will take the chance that SW is innocent until proven guilty of not staying 12f.Cool
By:
Sandown
When: 27 May 18 17:11
kincem

PS In much the same as your expertise is in pedigrees, I have spent many years  studying pace in the race and analysing sectionals. It's my view that the finishing splits for SW in the Gns point to a horse who will have no problem staying 10f at top pace. Maybe a further 2f  is unknown territory but as I have said before, he reminds me of Nashwan as they have very similar pace profiles. His run in the RP trophy at 2 also points to sufficient stamina for 12f. However, neither of us can be sure until he tries it. It is his race to lose imo. But I agree that the price currently is not attractive.  On the day, unless Tabor & co steam into it, the bookies without A/P liabilities will try and get him in the book to start with and I hope that he might be more attractively priced then.
By:
kincsem
When: 27 May 18 17:16
I just think odds on is terrible value on a course that is very difficult, and over a distance where most of the field are unproven.
If you add in another unknown, the ground on the day, then it is major guesswork.

There have been 32 odds on favourites in the Derby since 1780, and 18 have won.
One of those was in a 4 runner race, and lost.
Ten of the Derbys with odds on runners had less than 10 runners.

Camelot was the last odds on winner (9 runners).
Before him Entrepreneur; Tenby; and El Gran Senor lost and two of those had won the 2000 Guineas.

I like big odds.  They pay for a lot of losers.
By:
Sandown
When: 27 May 18 17:26
kincem

So, 55% of odds on Derby favs have won which is more or less what you would expect, isn't it? If SW goes off odds on (maybe) and wins then that would be 57.5%. It's too small a sample to argue that the record of odds on favs in the race is below what one would expect.

Anyhow,I can't argue against your predilection for large price winners - much more profitable!

PS Keep the stats coming please.
By:
kincsem
When: 27 May 18 18:00
My last two decent winners were from recommendations by posters on forums, one today.(see boards.ie)
My PC monitor went dead this afternoon but a big price winner pays for a new HDMI monitor Love.

I'll admit I get my teeth into posters but backing odds on is imo a motorway to the poorhouse.
By:
Figgis
When: 27 May 18 18:42
SW may win, but if he doesn't, there will be one of two responses from connections. He'll either be packed off to stud, especially if the old sparkle is obviously not there in training. Or connections will pin their hopes on lack of stamina and drop him back in trip. If it's the latter he could become a real money spinner for layers, as I would still doubt it was lack of stamina until proven afterwards.
By:
impossible123
When: 27 May 18 18:49
I could see the optimum trip of SW being 10f, and assuming he wins the Derby but The Leger is discounted, which would be his next race? The Irish Derby or The Eclipse? Unlikely the Prince Of Wales's Stakes, I'd think.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 27 May 18 18:54
Quite unlikely I would have thought considering it's for horses aged 4 years and older.
By:
impossible123
When: 27 May 18 19:08
Sorry, an oversight about the PoW.

I think the Irish Derby will be a natural progression if he wins the Epsom Derby. If he does not, the Eclipse (The Gurkha) and/or the Juddmonte (Churchill) could be next, I think. Then, very possibly the Irish and English Champion Stake to follow.

But SW has to win the Derby convincingly prior to a tilt at The Leger, I believe.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 27 May 18 19:11
I have no concerns over his stamina. I have backed him from 20/1 down to win quite a substantial sum but I still intend to have a decent bet on the day at odds against if the ground is good or better. I can't really fancy anything else in race to beat him.
By:
kincsem
When: 27 May 18 19:46
Knight To Behold 22.34 €161.67  €3,450.10
The Pentagon 50.00 €6.00  €294.00
Sevenna Star 75.63 €40.00  €2,985.25
Kew Gardens 94.51 €72.98  €6,824.62
By:
impossible123
When: 27 May 18 20:36
The ground is good to soft, good in places at the moment; a bit of rain expected tomorrow into tuesday, then dry with barely any precipitation but sunshine.

I did not get any double figures for SW only 4/1 prior to his 2000G in singles, doubles and trebles with 3 Oaks candidates Magical, Wild Illusion and Magic Wand, and Might Bite in the King George (KG).

Saxon Warrior £5 @ 25/1 (2000G/Derby) £125; the rest about £350, excluding Might Bite (KG)
The Pentagon 96.77 £3.63 £513
Hazapour 15.22 £22 £335
Delano Roosevelt 27.67 £15 £400
By:
kincsem
When: 28 May 18 14:29
I posted a little on boards.ie slagging off Saxon Warrior.
Does anyone know a safe house I can use next week. Laugh

The racing post show the AWD (average winning distance of Deep Impact progent as 10.1 furlongs

Is this it?


If you know anything about horse statistics you will know that they are as close to useless as you can get.

The AWD (average winning distance) is, as far as I know, the average for wins as three years old and older.
You and I now know what others do not know i.e. the numbers behind Deep Impact's 10.1f AWD (see my calculation below).

Will this fill you with confidence that Deep Impact's son, Saxon Warrior. will get the Derby 12f distance?
He may get the distance if Deep Impact's Japanese racing form transfers to his progeny racing in Europe.
I can not find any stats on the AWD of his Japanese progeny, but I think that would be worthless based on the Japanese style of racing, very different to here.

Horse ...................All Ages........3yo+ ..........Comment
Saxon Warrior...........8f...............................(2yo win)
Saxon Warrior...........8................................(2yo win)
Saxon Warrior...........8................................(2yo win)
Saxon Warrior...........8...............8................Group 1
September...................7................................(2yo win)
September...................7................................(2yo win)
Pavlenko.....................7...............7...............Maiden (5th attempt)
Fierce Impact.............8................................(2yo win)
Monster Munchie...9.5............9.5..............Maiden AW (3rd attempt)
Monster Munchie....9.5...........9.5..............0-65 AW Handicap
Sunday Bess..............10............10...............0-75 fillies handicap (10th attempt)
New World Power......12...........12...............Maiden AW (10th attempt)
Wisconsin.................12.5........12.5............3yo maiden
Love Conquers..........12.5.........12.5...........Maiden AW class 5 (6th attempt)
Average distance.......9.1..........10.1    


Comments:
Deep Impact's average winning distance calculation of 10.1f is what you see in the above list.
It is based on 8 wins, 7 of those wins in the lowest of grades.
1 win was a Group 1 race, 5 wins were in 3yo maidens, 2 wins were in handicaps.

If you read the comments on the right you will know that the maiden races were low class.
A 3yo maiden is for horses that failed to win a maiden when they were two years old, and all of the five maiden wins above were as 3yos.
If a horse keeps running in 2yo maidens, then in 3yo maidens, there comes a time when there are only a few horses left who have not won a maiden, and the bar is set very low.
What I get from this analysis is that Deep Impact has one good horse running in GB/IRE from 18 runners.

What the Racing Post miss from their stats are horses like A Shin Hikari, who won the 9f Group 1 Prix d'Ispahan in France.
And Beauty Parlour (GB), rated 119, won four races in France, although they were all 8f.
The RP stats are GB/IRE only.
By:
ashleigh
When: 28 May 18 15:58
14 left in 5 day decs, 7 belong to a o'brien.
j doyle freed to to ride young rascal
sds on dee ex bee.
By:
Sandown
When: 28 May 18 16:07
kincem

You are certainly doing your best to rubbish DI progeny & stamina but I really do not see how you can leave out the record of progeny who raced in Japan merely on the basis that races are run differently in Japan. That is a HUGE assumption which leaves you with little to work with.

Just to balance things out here is the list of ALL notable progeny onf Deep Impact who himself  was a tremendous racehorse (possibly the best ever in Japan) who won 7 G1's and raced mostly at 12f 14f and 16f. With a better training prep he might well have won the Arc don't forget.Personally, I
think that you are being too selective which best suits your argument. To my mind you have not established that there are stamina doubts with SW based on the record of his sire's progeny. I also give more weight to the racing record of the sire than in the progeny racing record.

Notable progeny
c = colt, f = filly

Foaled    Name    Sex    Major Wins
2008    Danon Shark    c    Mile Championship
2008    Marcellina    f    Oka Sho
2008    Real Impact    c    Yasuda Kinen, George Ryder Stakes
2008    Tosen Ra    c    Mile Championship
2009    Beauty Parlour    f    Poule d'Essai des Pouliches
2009    Deep Brillante    c    Tokyo Yushun
2009    Gentildonna    f    Oka Sho, Yushun Himba, Shuka Sho, Japan Cup (twice), Sheema Classic, Arima Kinen
2009    Joie de Vivre    f    Hanshin Juvenile Fillies
2009    Spielberg    c    Tenno Sho (Autumn)
2009    Verxina    c    Victoria Mile (twice)
2009    Red Kingdom    c    Nakayama Daishogai
2010    Ayusan    f    Oka Sho
2010    Kizuna    c    Tokyo Yushun
2010    Lachesis    f    Queen Elizabeth II Commemorative Cup
2011    A Shin Hikari    c    Hong Kong Cup, Prix d'Ispahan
2011    Harp Star    f    Oka Sho
2011    Marialite    f    Queen Elizabeth II Commemorative Cup, Takarazuka Kinen
2011    Mikki Isle    c    NHK Mile Cup, Mile Championship
2011    Satono Aladdin    c    Yasuda Kinen
2011    Shonan Pandora    f    Shuka Sho, Japan Cup
2011    Tosen Stardom    c    Toorak Handicap, Mackinnon Stakes
2012    Real Steel    c    Dubai Turf
2012    Danon Platina    c    Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes
2012    Mikki Queen    f    Yushun Himba, Shuka Sho
2012    Shonan Adela    f    Hanshin Juvenile Fillies
2013    Dee Majesty    c    Satsuki Shō
2013    Makahiki    c    Tokyo Yushun
2013    Sinhalite    f    Yushun Himba
2013    Vivlos    f    Shuka Sho, Dubai Turf
2013    Satono Diamond    c    Kikuka Sho, Arima Kinen
2013    Jour Polaire    f    Victoria Mile
2014    Satono Ares    c    Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes
2014    Al Ain    c    Satsuki Sho
2015    Saxon Warrior    c    Racing Post Trophy, 2000 Guineas
2015    Danon Premium    c    Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes
2015    Keiai Nautique    c    NHK Mile Cup
2015    Wagnerian    c    Tokyo Yushun
By:
Sandown
When: 28 May 18 16:40
kincem

I see that DI has become the world's most expensive sire, no doubt NOT based on your selective statsCool

A significant change to the hierarchy of the world's most elite stallions is contained within the list of 2018 covering fees for Shadai Stallion Stallion in Japan - with Deep Impact overtaking Dubawi as the world's most expensive advertised sire.

Deep Impact has seen his fee increased from ¥30 million (£196,000/€221,000) last year to ¥40m (£261,000/€294,000) for the upcoming breeding season, ahead of Dubawi who remains at a fee of £250,000 for the 2018 breeding season.

That 33 per cent increase is due in no small part to the success Deep Impact has enjoyed across the globe during 2017, with Al Ain, Danon Premium and Satono Aladdin all winning Grade 1s in his native Japan and Tosen Stardom, Saxon Warrior and Vivlos extending his influence further afield.

Racing Post Jan 2018
By:
kincsem
When: 28 May 18 16:47
Sandown

I've worked on his progeny in Japan too.
With 20 of his biggest earners, Gentildonna et al, I have calculated an average winning distance.
All of the 20 are rated over 100, many in the 120 and higher.
But I'll keep thw AWD to myself.
As I add more the AWD does not vary a lot.

Why not work one out yourself and publish it here?
That would be better than a list of races.
By:
Figgis
When: 28 May 18 16:50
Just wondering, when was the last top class 3yo 10f colt that failed due to lack of stamina in the Derby? Might've been some but can't say any immediately come to mind.
By:
kincsem
When: 28 May 18 16:53
A significant change to the hierarchy of the world's most elite stallions is contained within the list of 2018 covering fees for Shadai Stallion Stallion in Japan - with Deep Impact overtaking Dubawi as the world's most expensive advertised sire.
Deep Impact has seen his fee increased from ¥30 million (£196,000/€221,000) last year to ¥40m (£261,000/€294,000) for the upcoming breeding season, ahead of Dubawi who remains at a fee of £250,000 for the 2018 breeding season.
That 33 per cent increase is due in no small part to the success Deep Impact has enjoyed across the globe during 2017, with Al Ain, Danon Premium and Satono Aladdin all winning Grade 1s in his native Japan and Tosen Stardom, Saxon Warrior and Vivlos extending his influence further afield.
Racing Post Jan 2018

Bloodstock agent speak.
I am being polite when I say "speak"

So what if Deep Impact charges more for a cover?.
That does not mean he is better.
That just reflects that Japan, Hong Kong, and Australia have Tote monopolies that put hundreds of millions back into racing.
I think the average lifetime earnings for a horse (any old nag) in japan is about Euro 300k.
In GB/IRE it is more like Euro 10k.
By:
kincsem
When: 28 May 18 16:57
Tenby was the dog's b******* in the Derby with two 10f+ wins before the race, 4/5 fav, and that is about the time he came in.
By:
Madhu
When: 28 May 18 17:02
Yesterday Deep Impact sired another winner of the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) in  Wagnerian.
By:
Figgis
When: 28 May 18 17:02
But Tenby never proved himself up to much after the Derby either, even when dropped back in trip. The horse had peaked early. Although I know people went on to say that he was never any good anyway. Whether he was ever quite as good as some thought is not the point, he clearly went backwards.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 28 May 18 17:08
figgis how many top class 10f horses do you know before the derby has been run? not many races run over the distance apart from trials or are you asking from horses who have moved on to be top class at 10f after the derby?
By:
Sankara
When: 28 May 18 17:15
There aren't any horses in this year's Derby who have proved they're top class over 10 furlongs, but Cliffs of Moher, Eminent, US Army Ranger and Carlton House were all shorter prices than anything that's run over 10f+ in this year's race and all were outstayed in the Derby.
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