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epsom derby 2018

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Replies: 766
By:
Figgis
When: 28 May 18 17:15
Yes harry, I mean proved themselves top class over 10f afterwards. Preferably in the same year, as I know some horses gain stamina with age. One argument is that SW is top class and will get 10f (I don't think anyone has yet said he's purely a miler) but will struggle to get 12f. So with this argument you would assume that if he fails in the Derby he can still prove himself over 10f afterwards. Have any others done likewise? Think you'd probably have to go back many years.
By:
Sandown
When: 28 May 18 17:15
kincem

But I'll keep thw AWD to myself.

I may have less in-depth knowledge of breeding than yourself, but I do know a thing or two about stats. And the key variable in the AWD stat is the A. A is for AVERAGE which can be seriously misleading without knowledge of the standard distribution. It's possible that a sire may get winners ranging from 6-14f with an average of 10 if evenly distributed or more likely 8 as more runners included at shorter distances. It's clear from the list that DI has produced some good 10+f (Gentildonna, Harp Star,  Dee Majesty etc) horses and that is all we really need to know to disprove the argument that he CAN'T sire horses with stamina.
By:
kincsem
When: 28 May 18 17:16
Here are a few top Deep Impact horses that earned many Yen
All you have to do is a bit of work listing the distance of the races they won and work out an average winning distance.

Horse    Yen
SHONAN PANDORA    607688000
MIKKI ISLE    529481000
MIKKI QUEEN    487764000
DANON SHARK    471778000
TOSEN RA    460976000
VERXINA    460795000
SATONO NOBLESSE    425415000
DECIPHER    420959000
MARIALITE    407258000
DENIM AND RUBY    363966000
HARP STAR    360248000
DACCORD    309187000
WAGNERIAN    306141000
LACHESIS    295986000
DEEP BRILLANTE    292056000
SINHALITE    286426000
AL AIN    280736000
AMBITIOUS    272497000
MARCELLINA    269385000
DONAU BLUE    263197000
ULIULI    244355000
DEE MAJESTY    230564000
EXTRA END    217785000
TOSEN REVE    214913000
HISTORICAL    202107000
A SHIN HIKARI    197315000
DANON PLATINA    195823000
PASSION DANCE    190877000
QUATRE FEUILLES    187848000
ALBERT DOCK    175869000
RED OVAL    170794000
MARTINBOROUGH    165474000
SMART ROBIN    162415000
MEISHO BUSHIDO    161942000
VINCENNES    160942000
AYUSAN    158745000
FATA MORGANA    153304000
CRANS MONTANA    137438000
SAKURA ARDITO    134850000
GARIBALDI    132593000
RED KINGDOM    130351000
VEILED IMPACT    130172000
LIBERTAS    127730000
SATONO LUPIN    127045000
BARBARA    126473000
ADMIRABLE    124071000
LANGLEY    122429000
NEW DYNASTY    119796000
MOUNT SHASTA    118305000
MOONLIT LAKE    118304000
BOREAS    118139000
HERCULES    117313000
BESTE GESCHENK    116276000
SUPREME GIFT    116065000
TOSEN HOMAREBOSHI    115882000
ARDENT    115393000
TOUCHING SPEECH    114364000
X MARK    111412000
HIRABOKU DEEP    107944000
DANON GELATO    107812000
SNATCH MIND    106137000
FRERE JACQUES    104015000
SILENT SONIC    103993000
BLANC BONHEUR    102308000
GRAND PRIX BLOOD    100583000
CADENAS    100120000
By:
Figgis
When: 28 May 18 17:17
Sankara, I'd argue none of those were top class at any trip.
By:
Sankara
When: 28 May 18 17:21
As I said, nothing has proved itself top class over 10f yet. Top class milers who've failed to stay include Hawk Wing and Dawn Approach, off the top of my head. Not that the Guineas looks top class at this stage.
By:
Figgis
When: 28 May 18 17:23
Yes, can think of a few milers. Not saying that it's impossible that SW could be a top class animal over 10f this year but fail to get 12f. Would seem quite a rarity though.
By:
Sankara
When: 28 May 18 17:29
Going back a bit, I don't think Sakhee really stayed at 3, though he obviously did by the end of his 4YO career.
By:
Sankara
When: 28 May 18 17:35
Dubai Millennium was no mug...
By:
harry callaghan
When: 28 May 18 17:38
difficult figgis certainly not many, a few that have run badly in the derby who were top class at 10f were Rodrigo de Triano and spectrum were decent as was in the groove but not easy to find tbh
By:
Figgis
When: 28 May 18 17:39
I never saw Sakhee as a non stayer at 3, but even for those that do, he still ran a fine race, only beaten by a future Arc winner and finishing clear of the rest. If SW was seen as more of a miler I could understand people getting hung up over the question of the trip. If he's going to run a big race but just going to get touched off at the finish then you'd have to think it will be by something pretty decent. Roaring Lion and maybe even the potentially good Young Rascal aside, for my money the rest look very mediocre.
By:
Figgis
When: 28 May 18 17:45
Yes Dubai Millennium is one I hadn't thought of. I had one bet that year which was the winner, Oath, as I thought Dubai Millennium had been overrated. In hindsight though maybe I got lucky, as he proved himself very good afterwards. From memory though he did always appear a bit headstrong and maybe stamina was always a doubt with him?
By:
Madhu
When: 28 May 18 17:47
A quick perusal of the pedigrees of the dams of some of Deep Impact’s best middle distance offspring in Japan, that of Gentildonna Japan Cup (2012, 2013), Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) (2012), Shonan Pandora Japan Cup (2015), Deep Brillante Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) (2012), Kizuna Tokyo Yushun (2013), Makahiki Tokyo Yushun (2016), and Satono Diamond  2013 Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger), are dominated by speed and mostly from mares imported into Japan.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 28 May 18 17:50
Oratorial.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 28 May 18 17:51
Sorry, I mean Oratorio.
By:
kincsem
When: 28 May 18 17:54
Not too many 2000 Guineas winners have done the double recently

Year    Horse    Finish
1991    Mystiko   10th
1992    Rodrigo de Triano   9th
1993    Zafonic    --------
1994    Mister Baileys   4th
1995    Pennekamp   11th
1996    Mark of Esteem    --------
1997    Entrepreneur   4th
1998    King of Kings   15th
1999    Island Sands    --------
2000    King's Best    --------
2001    Golan   2nd
2002    Rock of Gibraltar     --------
2003    Refuse to Bend   13th
2004    Haafhd    --------
2005    Footstepsinthesand    --------
2006    George Washington    --------
2007    Cockney Rebel    --------
2008    Henrythenavigator    --------
2009    Sea the Stars   1st
2010    Makfi    --------
2011    Frankel    --------
2012    Camelot   1st
2013    Dawn Approach   12th
2014    Night of Thunder    --------
2015    Gleneagles    --------
2016    Galileo Gold    --------
2017    Churchill    --------
2018    Saxon Warrior
By:
harry callaghan
When: 28 May 18 17:55
very much enjoying the deep impact debate
By:
Figgis
When: 28 May 18 17:57
Looking back at DM I see he only won a Gp2 over 10f after the Derby, he won two Gp1s over a mile so that was seen more as his optimum at that stage. Can't really see SW's near future being over 1m.
By:
Figgis
When: 28 May 18 18:02
Jack, well he did win two Gp1s over 10f so has that in the book. Personally though I don't think it was great form. Motivator was never as good after the Derby. Again, some people said afterwards that his Derby win was poor, but while not the very best I still rate him an above average winner on the day.
By:
Figgis
When: 28 May 18 18:11
Looking back at Oratorio's form prior to the Derby you'd have to say it was always questionable if he'd be a 12f horse. Pedigrees are all very well but surely racecourse evidence takes precedence? Okay SW still hasn't been over 12f but look at what he did in the RPT. There is nothing whatsoever about that performance that suggests the slightest stamina doubt. In fact just the opposite, there was everything in evidence that you look for in a 2yo that will get the Derby trip.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 28 May 18 18:17
I never considered him a 12f horse myself before the Derby and I'm not sure O'Brien really did either. Roaring Lion is another who may be better over 10 furlongs rather than 12, although I think he will stay.
By:
Figgis
When: 28 May 18 18:24
By the way Jack, even though I have my doubts about SW running to his best and I'm taking him on for that reason, I do like your unwavering intention to continue to back him while you see him as the value, quite right.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 28 May 18 18:35
question to you all...who have got as running the best race in the guineas?
By:
Figgis
When: 28 May 18 18:36
Harry, the winner.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 28 May 18 18:38
got to be joking?
By:
charwell.
When: 28 May 18 18:41
1992    Rodrigo de Triano   9th


Worst ride given to a fancied derby runner ever by Mr L Piggott! This superb horse then won the champions Stakes over 10f but was never put in with a chance in the Derby.


Re SW and his sire DI. I think if the ground is good firm he probably gets home but good or worse than that and it has to be taken on trust. Odds on pokes for me need a lot more than trust. SW beat a sub standard Guineas field. I think Young Rascal looks to have the right profile of stamina and acceleration and I am really sweet still on Sevenna Star and pray he takes his place in the line up. Think he has far more chance than Roaring Lion from the Gosden yard.
By:
Madhu
When: 28 May 18 18:43
Most of Deep Impact's progeny like harder, faster ground than anything Saxon Warrior has experienced, and for that reason I think he could improve massively given those conditions. Following on, although he has only won on ground with some give I do believe that any give in the ground away from fast ground will be to his disadvantage relatively so and the weather is looking unsettled on the lead-up this week.
By:
Figgis
When: 28 May 18 18:43
Not at all. I didn't see any relevant excuses for the rest, certainly not enough to overturn the form. After initially thinking Roaring Lion ran to his best form, I have since changed my mind and reckon he was a bit below par. However, no excuses, that's as good as he was on the day and even if he'd have run to his best there the result would probably have been the same as in the RPT.

Who do you say Harry?
By:
harry callaghan
When: 28 May 18 18:44
would you say figgis the race was truly run? in context of the horses running? i did
By:
Figgis
When: 28 May 18 18:48
Harry, they didn't go flat out early but I've often argued that doesn't necessarily mean a race wasn't truly run overall. In my view the race result was not affected at all by the pace. It was a few pounds short of average time for a Guineas but that's because they were below average milers. What's your view?
By:
Figgis
When: 28 May 18 18:48
I should've said below average Gp1 milers.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 28 May 18 18:54
sort of feeling that all this saxon warrior stamina talk is missing the point

that roaring lion's dante win was more impressive than anything any other horse has put up

reckon he'll kill them for speed in the final furlong
By:
Sankara
When: 28 May 18 19:11
Ulysses another good example.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 28 May 18 19:12
this is how i read it but i did think they went fast for the class of horse although agree it didn't seem it

i love trip handicapping now and i would say they went a million considering the class of animal in the race for a start off with murillo the pawn in the o'brien chess game of pace in a race

the horses compromised were elarqam and masar both of whom had shown previously a liking for being on the speed/up in the van and they chased the sprinter on his terms with saxon warrior getting the most perfect trip imaginable in behind the johnson horse... the other horse with the most perfect trip was roaring lion who got to sit in behind masar who ran a tremendous race considering he went with the speed on the slowest part of the track, the rag in second who sat right out of the speed and picked the pieces up late also had a perfect trip sitting out of the speed

for me masar gets all the credit and if he had been trained in behind horses to come home well, would be a major play for me in the derby but can just see him getting lit up in the big race, however the price is ok considering everyone and his aunt thinks he was just to fit for roaring lion in the craven and exposed in the guineas which he was but i still gave him the most credit in the race

i haven't played him but think he is underrated as i think the young rascal is also in the market

it is a shame nelson blew out as he was also looking a likely type...roaring lion i see you fancy figgis is a big rpice on his trail and he settled better there than previously and looked a very good horse, you have to argue how that race was run and he beat backward middle distance horses with a turn of foot, an unsatisfactory affair but a nice winner
By:
The Headmaster
When: 28 May 18 19:19
Roaring Lion most definitely did NOT get the perfect trip in the Guinea, as my post a week before the Dante, on this thread, outlined
By:
The Headmaster
When: 28 May 18 19:24
Tbh I'm finding this Deep Impact debate a little boring.  It's blindingly obvious he's well capable of siring a top class 12f horse, once we acknowledge he's only making up 50% of the mating.  Maybe a little more talk about the bottom half of Saxon Warrior's pedigree could be of more interest.....
By:
impossible123
When: 28 May 18 19:26
I believe El Gran Senor won a very good 2000G beating Chief Singer, Lear Fan and Rainbow Quest, but he was outstayed by Secreto in the Derby after taking it up earlier than wanted to when the pacesetters dropped away tamely, and going best of all. I think AOB will ensure this will not happen to Saxon Warrior on saturday.

For connections to be talking about the Triple Crown after winning the 2000G when he was not expected to I believe connections do have more than a hope and little doubt he'll stay the Derby trip; I think he'll, and win but far less certain about The Leger though.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 28 May 18 19:29
he was compromised by where he was on the track headmaster but he got a perfect toe in from masar the fact the horse wants to hang under pressure is another matter
By:
Howellsy
When: 28 May 18 19:32
At most, there are 7 horses in the race plus whatever O'Brien runs. Anyone think there might be a bit of a shock on Thursday with just SW making the trip from Tipperary? At most I'd run one other horse as pacemaker. Surely the smaller the field, the more it'll be in his favour? Any more than that and I'd say they aren't totally confident in his chances.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 28 May 18 19:36
He got a nice tow until the race started, Harry.  Then he was hung out to dry.
By:
impossible123
When: 28 May 18 19:41
I'd disagree, that might be the old days. As AOB has said on more than one occasions his horses need to run and sometimes there are no alternatives but against one another especially in Group races; one or two could be pacesetters eg Nelson, the others on merit possibly for places, and to assist Saxon Warrior (riding shotgun) and inconvenience his adversaries.
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