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Yes harry, I mean proved themselves top class over 10f afterwards. Preferably in the same year, as I know some horses gain stamina with age. One argument is that SW is top class and will get 10f (I don't think anyone has yet said he's purely a miler) but will struggle to get 12f. So with this argument you would assume that if he fails in the Derby he can still prove himself over 10f afterwards. Have any others done likewise? Think you'd probably have to go back many years.
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kincem
But I'll keep thw AWD to myself. I may have less in-depth knowledge of breeding than yourself, but I do know a thing or two about stats. And the key variable in the AWD stat is the A. A is for AVERAGE which can be seriously misleading without knowledge of the standard distribution. It's possible that a sire may get winners ranging from 6-14f with an average of 10 if evenly distributed or more likely 8 as more runners included at shorter distances. It's clear from the list that DI has produced some good 10+f (Gentildonna, Harp Star, Dee Majesty etc) horses and that is all we really need to know to disprove the argument that he CAN'T sire horses with stamina. |
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Here are a few top Deep Impact horses that earned many Yen
All you have to do is a bit of work listing the distance of the races they won and work out an average winning distance. Horse Yen SHONAN PANDORA 607688000 MIKKI ISLE 529481000 MIKKI QUEEN 487764000 DANON SHARK 471778000 TOSEN RA 460976000 VERXINA 460795000 SATONO NOBLESSE 425415000 DECIPHER 420959000 MARIALITE 407258000 DENIM AND RUBY 363966000 HARP STAR 360248000 DACCORD 309187000 WAGNERIAN 306141000 LACHESIS 295986000 DEEP BRILLANTE 292056000 SINHALITE 286426000 AL AIN 280736000 AMBITIOUS 272497000 MARCELLINA 269385000 DONAU BLUE 263197000 ULIULI 244355000 DEE MAJESTY 230564000 EXTRA END 217785000 TOSEN REVE 214913000 HISTORICAL 202107000 A SHIN HIKARI 197315000 DANON PLATINA 195823000 PASSION DANCE 190877000 QUATRE FEUILLES 187848000 ALBERT DOCK 175869000 RED OVAL 170794000 MARTINBOROUGH 165474000 SMART ROBIN 162415000 MEISHO BUSHIDO 161942000 VINCENNES 160942000 AYUSAN 158745000 FATA MORGANA 153304000 CRANS MONTANA 137438000 SAKURA ARDITO 134850000 GARIBALDI 132593000 RED KINGDOM 130351000 VEILED IMPACT 130172000 LIBERTAS 127730000 SATONO LUPIN 127045000 BARBARA 126473000 ADMIRABLE 124071000 LANGLEY 122429000 NEW DYNASTY 119796000 MOUNT SHASTA 118305000 MOONLIT LAKE 118304000 BOREAS 118139000 HERCULES 117313000 BESTE GESCHENK 116276000 SUPREME GIFT 116065000 TOSEN HOMAREBOSHI 115882000 ARDENT 115393000 TOUCHING SPEECH 114364000 X MARK 111412000 HIRABOKU DEEP 107944000 DANON GELATO 107812000 SNATCH MIND 106137000 FRERE JACQUES 104015000 SILENT SONIC 103993000 BLANC BONHEUR 102308000 GRAND PRIX BLOOD 100583000 CADENAS 100120000 |
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Sankara, I'd argue none of those were top class at any trip.
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As I said, nothing has proved itself top class over 10f yet. Top class milers who've failed to stay include Hawk Wing and Dawn Approach, off the top of my head. Not that the Guineas looks top class at this stage.
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Yes, can think of a few milers. Not saying that it's impossible that SW could be a top class animal over 10f this year but fail to get 12f. Would seem quite a rarity though.
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Going back a bit, I don't think Sakhee really stayed at 3, though he obviously did by the end of his 4YO career.
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Dubai Millennium was no mug...
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difficult figgis certainly not many, a few that have run badly in the derby who were top class at 10f were Rodrigo de Triano and spectrum were decent as was in the groove but not easy to find tbh
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I never saw Sakhee as a non stayer at 3, but even for those that do, he still ran a fine race, only beaten by a future Arc winner and finishing clear of the rest. If SW was seen as more of a miler I could understand people getting hung up over the question of the trip. If he's going to run a big race but just going to get touched off at the finish then you'd have to think it will be by something pretty decent. Roaring Lion and maybe even the potentially good Young Rascal aside, for my money the rest look very mediocre.
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Yes Dubai Millennium is one I hadn't thought of. I had one bet that year which was the winner, Oath, as I thought Dubai Millennium had been overrated. In hindsight though maybe I got lucky, as he proved himself very good afterwards. From memory though he did always appear a bit headstrong and maybe stamina was always a doubt with him?
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A quick perusal of the pedigrees of the dams of some of Deep Impact’s best middle distance offspring in Japan, that of Gentildonna Japan Cup (2012, 2013), Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) (2012), Shonan Pandora Japan Cup (2015), Deep Brillante Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) (2012), Kizuna Tokyo Yushun (2013), Makahiki Tokyo Yushun (2016), and Satono Diamond 2013 Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger), are dominated by speed and mostly from mares imported into Japan.
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Oratorial.
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Sorry, I mean Oratorio.
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Not too many 2000 Guineas winners have done the double recently
Year Horse Finish 1991 Mystiko 10th 1992 Rodrigo de Triano 9th 1993 Zafonic -------- 1994 Mister Baileys 4th 1995 Pennekamp 11th 1996 Mark of Esteem -------- 1997 Entrepreneur 4th 1998 King of Kings 15th 1999 Island Sands -------- 2000 King's Best -------- 2001 Golan 2nd 2002 Rock of Gibraltar -------- 2003 Refuse to Bend 13th 2004 Haafhd -------- 2005 Footstepsinthesand -------- 2006 George Washington -------- 2007 Cockney Rebel -------- 2008 Henrythenavigator -------- 2009 Sea the Stars 1st 2010 Makfi -------- 2011 Frankel -------- 2012 Camelot 1st 2013 Dawn Approach 12th 2014 Night of Thunder -------- 2015 Gleneagles -------- 2016 Galileo Gold -------- 2017 Churchill -------- 2018 Saxon Warrior |
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very much enjoying the deep impact debate
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Looking back at DM I see he only won a Gp2 over 10f after the Derby, he won two Gp1s over a mile so that was seen more as his optimum at that stage. Can't really see SW's near future being over 1m.
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Jack, well he did win two Gp1s over 10f so has that in the book. Personally though I don't think it was great form. Motivator was never as good after the Derby. Again, some people said afterwards that his Derby win was poor, but while not the very best I still rate him an above average winner on the day.
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Looking back at Oratorio's form prior to the Derby you'd have to say it was always questionable if he'd be a 12f horse. Pedigrees are all very well but surely racecourse evidence takes precedence? Okay SW still hasn't been over 12f but look at what he did in the RPT. There is nothing whatsoever about that performance that suggests the slightest stamina doubt. In fact just the opposite, there was everything in evidence that you look for in a 2yo that will get the Derby trip.
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I never considered him a 12f horse myself before the Derby and I'm not sure O'Brien really did either. Roaring Lion is another who may be better over 10 furlongs rather than 12, although I think he will stay.
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By the way Jack, even though I have my doubts about SW running to his best and I'm taking him on for that reason, I do like your unwavering intention to continue to back him while you see him as the value, quite right.
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question to you all...who have got as running the best race in the guineas?
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Harry, the winner.
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got to be joking?
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1992 Rodrigo de Triano 9th
Worst ride given to a fancied derby runner ever by Mr L Piggott! This superb horse then won the champions Stakes over 10f but was never put in with a chance in the Derby. Re SW and his sire DI. I think if the ground is good firm he probably gets home but good or worse than that and it has to be taken on trust. Odds on pokes for me need a lot more than trust. SW beat a sub standard Guineas field. I think Young Rascal looks to have the right profile of stamina and acceleration and I am really sweet still on Sevenna Star and pray he takes his place in the line up. Think he has far more chance than Roaring Lion from the Gosden yard. |
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Most of Deep Impact's progeny like harder, faster ground than anything Saxon Warrior has experienced, and for that reason I think he could improve massively given those conditions. Following on, although he has only won on ground with some give I do believe that any give in the ground away from fast ground will be to his disadvantage relatively so and the weather is looking unsettled on the lead-up this week.
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Not at all. I didn't see any relevant excuses for the rest, certainly not enough to overturn the form. After initially thinking Roaring Lion ran to his best form, I have since changed my mind and reckon he was a bit below par. However, no excuses, that's as good as he was on the day and even if he'd have run to his best there the result would probably have been the same as in the RPT.
Who do you say Harry? |
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would you say figgis the race was truly run? in context of the horses running? i did
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Harry, they didn't go flat out early but I've often argued that doesn't necessarily mean a race wasn't truly run overall. In my view the race result was not affected at all by the pace. It was a few pounds short of average time for a Guineas but that's because they were below average milers. What's your view?
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I should've said below average Gp1 milers.
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sort of feeling that all this saxon warrior stamina talk is missing the point
that roaring lion's dante win was more impressive than anything any other horse has put up reckon he'll kill them for speed in the final furlong |
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Ulysses another good example.
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this is how i read it but i did think they went fast for the class of horse although agree it didn't seem it
i love trip handicapping now and i would say they went a million considering the class of animal in the race for a start off with murillo the pawn in the o'brien chess game of pace in a race the horses compromised were elarqam and masar both of whom had shown previously a liking for being on the speed/up in the van and they chased the sprinter on his terms with saxon warrior getting the most perfect trip imaginable in behind the johnson horse... the other horse with the most perfect trip was roaring lion who got to sit in behind masar who ran a tremendous race considering he went with the speed on the slowest part of the track, the rag in second who sat right out of the speed and picked the pieces up late also had a perfect trip sitting out of the speed for me masar gets all the credit and if he had been trained in behind horses to come home well, would be a major play for me in the derby but can just see him getting lit up in the big race, however the price is ok considering everyone and his aunt thinks he was just to fit for roaring lion in the craven and exposed in the guineas which he was but i still gave him the most credit in the race i haven't played him but think he is underrated as i think the young rascal is also in the market it is a shame nelson blew out as he was also looking a likely type...roaring lion i see you fancy figgis is a big rpice on his trail and he settled better there than previously and looked a very good horse, you have to argue how that race was run and he beat backward middle distance horses with a turn of foot, an unsatisfactory affair but a nice winner |
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Roaring Lion most definitely did NOT get the perfect trip in the Guinea, as my post a week before the Dante, on this thread, outlined
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Tbh I'm finding this Deep Impact debate a little boring. It's blindingly obvious he's well capable of siring a top class 12f horse, once we acknowledge he's only making up 50% of the mating. Maybe a little more talk about the bottom half of Saxon Warrior's pedigree could be of more interest.....
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I believe El Gran Senor won a very good 2000G beating Chief Singer, Lear Fan and Rainbow Quest, but he was outstayed by Secreto in the Derby after taking it up earlier than wanted to when the pacesetters dropped away tamely, and going best of all. I think AOB will ensure this will not happen to Saxon Warrior on saturday.
For connections to be talking about the Triple Crown after winning the 2000G when he was not expected to I believe connections do have more than a hope and little doubt he'll stay the Derby trip; I think he'll, and win but far less certain about The Leger though. |
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he was compromised by where he was on the track headmaster but he got a perfect toe in from masar the fact the horse wants to hang under pressure is another matter
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At most, there are 7 horses in the race plus whatever O'Brien runs. Anyone think there might be a bit of a shock on Thursday with just SW making the trip from Tipperary? At most I'd run one other horse as pacemaker. Surely the smaller the field, the more it'll be in his favour? Any more than that and I'd say they aren't totally confident in his chances.
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He got a nice tow until the race started, Harry. Then he was hung out to dry.
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I'd disagree, that might be the old days. As AOB has said on more than one occasions his horses need to run and sometimes there are no alternatives but against one another especially in Group races; one or two could be pacesetters eg Nelson, the others on merit possibly for places, and to assist Saxon Warrior (riding shotgun) and inconvenience his adversaries.
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