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epsom derby 2018

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Replies: 766
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 22 May 18 11:46
figgis if it was a weak guineas, how come roaring lion, who was beaten seemingly fair and square in that same race, should be favourite and a maximum bet? surely that reasoning is somewhat contradictory?

also you write: However, because of his profile, the performances he put up last year and his performance/time in the Guineas I reckon there is an odds on chance he'll regress somewhat from the Guineas run

but why? you don't give any reasoning.
By:
pipedreamer
When: 22 May 18 11:57
Still no mention by tv experts of Roaring Lions ability to handle the Camber,as he has a tendency to drift left.
With the race obviously going to be run at a fast pace his stamina surely will be severely tested.
Prix du Jockey Club looks a better bet.
By:
Figgis
When: 22 May 18 12:00
LR, you're right RL was beaten fair and square in the Guineas but I said I think he can deliver a peak performance next time, better than his Guineas run.

My other reasoning is based on my own time ratings and horses with similar profiles from the past.
By:
Sankara
When: 22 May 18 12:02
Huge stamina doubt about Roaring Lion on breeding (and running style, having been outstayed in the RP Trophy), and he's not that likely to relish Epsom's cambers either. Young Rascal's knee action is a worry unless there's rain, and Saxon Warrior is opposable at odds on given the stamina doubts raised by his pedigree and the way he hung at a much more straightforward track last time. They really should run Study of Man in this, but I doubt they will.
By:
Figgis
When: 22 May 18 12:10
Won't the camber balance out his tendency to go left?Wink
By:
Sankara
When: 22 May 18 12:43
Well there's that - might be the first disqualified Derby winner for a while...
By:
Figgis
When: 22 May 18 12:55
Anything is possible. At the price though I just can't give too much consideration to the camber. I think he'll have too much speed for it to make that much of a difference. Young Rascal is a promising runner, needs about 10lbs+ to find by my reckoning, which is far from impossible at his stage of development but not one I could back. The rest don't look up to much, although something will probably outrun its odds and previous form on the day.
By:
Sankara
When: 22 May 18 13:26
At current prices, and given the stamina doubts about the others, I think the value lies in the Derrinstown principals. Neither the winner nor runner-up was well placed that day off a slow pace, and both did well to beat horses that had gained a head start on them without having wasted much energy. The Pentagon also came on nicely from his reappearance, though he was more prominently positioned than the pair that beat him.
By:
dunlaying
When: 22 May 18 13:37
The Cocked Hat could throw up a lively outsider in the shape of Bombyx .
By:
impossible123
When: 22 May 18 16:18
I'll be in the money if any of AOB wins or Hazapour. But I do agree Roaring Lion could be tapped for stamina, and possibly Saxon Warrior too given his pace and acceleration in the 2000G. Let's hope his sheer class tells at the business end.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 22 May 18 16:43
At current prices, and given the stamina doubts about the others, I think the value lies in the Derrinstown principals.

game of opinions but I thought that was an awful trial personally. would be amazed if the winner came out of that race.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 22 May 18 16:43
But I do agree Roaring Lion could be tapped for stamina,

isn't it tapped for speed? Confused
By:
The Headmaster
When: 22 May 18 17:08
Tapped for stamina is an unusual phrase
By:
The Headmaster
When: 22 May 18 17:09
But I do like Hazapour.  Wouldn't be at all shocked if Weld won the Derby and Oaks quite frankly.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 22 May 18 17:21
In my humble opinion, we also need to talk about:

MASAR
THE PENTAGON
AL MUFFRIH
By:
bobbyjo
When: 22 May 18 17:25
HM - any idea what the Weld camp think of Chiara Luna. She was certainly an eye catcher in the trial.

Well done with Roaring Lion. An epic shout !
Certainly makes the race more interesting....
By:
pipedreamer
When: 22 May 18 17:45
The camber as I understand it tilts left,affording R. Lion all the opportunity to hang left.Why do punters fancy Young Rascal ?.He came from the rear at Chester,but Deexbee came through with him from even further back,so there both the same. As we are looking for a great horse to back for the Derby,[and you need positives],what's the odds that BOTH of them are potential Derby winners.They can't BOTH be good enough to win the Derby ?.
Another point is the knee action of Young Rascal,not sure he'll handle the downhill.
Hazapour has been described as a big horse,but you wouldn't exactly describe him as LENGTHY ?,doesn't seem to cover a lot of ground with his stride.
Anyway,good luck to all.
By:
keeping silent
When: 22 May 18 17:53
How many do we reckon will line up on the day ?
By:
The Headmaster
When: 22 May 18 18:07
Thank you Bobbyjo, I hope a few others got on when he was flagged. Somewhere around the 100 mark I believe? Blush Unfortunately I know nothing about Chiara Luna Sad

He's not my biggest winner though - that honour falls to Hazarpour, who in no way is a big horse - which earthling described him so, pipedreamer?  Shambles.  Perfect size for a little scamper round the Downs imo.
By:
Figgis
When: 22 May 18 18:13
Pretty sure the camber in the straight (which if Roaring Lion is to hang this will be the place as he's asked to quicken) slopes left to right, which is why you see many of the runners edging slightly right in the straight. Could be pretty dangerous if they were all sloping into the rail.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 22 May 18 18:15
Left to right from what viewpoint?  For a horse it's definitely right to left.
By:
pipedreamer
When: 22 May 18 18:17
Headmaster,ATR described him as big,tho when I looked at him I couldn't see how he could be seen as "big".
But that is what we get on tv,commentators telling us that they are going a fast gallop In a race,and quite a few behind are pulling like crazy.That along with comments such as,"Masar should be 1/3 ",and asking before the Guineas whether Murillo had a chance [a horse entered for the Palace House 5 furlong earlier that day],etc etc.
Best of luck anyway with you selection anyway,it's never as straightforward as it seems,so they all have a chance,including yours.
By:
bobbyjo
When: 22 May 18 18:26
110 Wink
By:
Figgis
When: 22 May 18 18:39
http://epsomderbybetting.co.uk/news/investec-derby-2017-never-2-2/

there is a pronounced camber from left to right

There is plenty of conflicting information about the exact nature of the track. Personally I always thought the camber was right to left sweeping around Tattenham Corner then was left to right on the uphill climb to the finish, which is why more horses edge right at that stage.
By:
pipedreamer
When: 22 May 18 18:49
From memory of seeing other races at Epsom,don't quite a few horses hang left in the straight there ?.Maybe i'm wrong I don't know.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 22 May 18 18:52
I've been to Epsom as much as any track in the country, and was there today in fact.  Can categorically state, from the viewpoint of a horse, that the camber is right to left all the way from Tatters to the line.
By:
Figgis
When: 22 May 18 18:54
Pipedreamer, I'm sure they do on the initial descent into the straight and early part of it but then edge right. Anyway, like you I'm not absolutely sure as I've never seen the proper evidence, maybe you're right.
By:
Figgis
When: 22 May 18 19:04
Headmaster, fair enough. For me it is no more of an issue for him than any of the others, despite him hanging left previously. It is the slower runners under pressure becoming unbalanced that will have more of a problem with the track.
By:
Sankara
When: 22 May 18 19:10
Not worried a horse that hangs left - when he's going at top speed - on a flat as a pancake track like York might have a problem on a rollercoaster track like Epsom, where the camber pushes them in towards the rail? I would be. Though I'd be more worried about his stamina, especially at 6-1.
By:
impossible123
When: 22 May 18 19:15
'Tapped for stamina' is merely a description borrowed (economically) from that of speed.

I watched the Derrinstown a few times last night, and was impressed with the way Hazapour not only held his position during the race, but quickened when the pace quickened; he also showed a good turn of foot at the business end.

Despite having a free bet on The Pentagon thro' trading I do not know what to make of his run in the same race against Hazapour; he'd his ground (good/good to firm) but was ridden up with the pace which was rather unusual. Would he have done better if not? Not convinced he'd have beaten Hazapour, if so; Delano Roosevelt ran his usual solid race there too, but again could he have beaten Hazapour? Again, not convinced either.

I'm glad connections of Roaring Lion opted for the Derby instead of France,...was that Gosden induced? Personally, I doubt it. But applaud
for the sporting gesture displayed by connections.

Roaring Lion won the Dante over 10f; Saxon Warrior and Masar both finished infront of him in the 2000G but not gone beyond 8f. Nevertheless, I'd expect Saxon Warrior to once again finish infront of Masar, all things being equal. Similarly, the same horse infront of Roaring Lion as he's beaten Roaring Lion twice already, all things being equal.

Of the 3 I have I hope Saxon Warrior wins despite winning me the least money of all as I'd like to see him in The Leger attempting to make history (hopefully), and a bit of money too.

I hope all the big boys turn up for the gig on 2nd June at Epsom.
By:
Middle_Of_March
When: 22 May 18 19:38
I’ve been to epsom a fair few times and, as Headmaster rightly says, the camber is right to left.

I’m on Young Rascal at 20/1 from before he hacked up in the Chester Vase. He will improve for a galloping track im absolutely sure.
By:
Figgis
When: 22 May 18 19:50
Sankara, if he hangs left in the straight then I'd assume the jockey will allow him to get near to the rail at the soonest opportunity. Of course, this might not be possible and he could muller half the field as he veers across but usually these kind of incidents happen when you don't expect them. If we were talking about a short odds on favourite then it could be worth considering but not at this price, in my view. I'll be surprised if he fails due to lack of stamina with the RPT as a guide, even though he was just touched off there.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 22 May 18 20:26
Back to Roaring Lion then...do we need to talk about the jockey?  Fine young talent, no doubt, but definitely a thinker so will they be, on the biggest of days, the perfect combination?
By:
pipedreamer
When: 22 May 18 20:29
Young Rascal "hacked up at Chester".Oh dear I wouldn't describe him as doing that,would any of you?.Slightly a rose-tinted view !!!.
Still we shall see.I live and learn,esp about cambers !!.
By:
Figgis
When: 22 May 18 20:56
Headmaster, if on the day it is a closely fought competitive race (and it could be) then that may well be a factor. I just feel very confident about the race this year and think we will see a comfortable winner. Richard Baerlein's famous quote comes to mind Wink
By:
PeteTheBloke
When: 22 May 18 21:53
It comes to mind every year. A classic.
By:
PeteTheBloke
When: 22 May 18 21:56
BTW I don't think we've seen a Shergar this year.
By:
pipedreamer
When: 22 May 18 23:22
In the Royal Lodge,Benny The Dip,got headed late on and fought back to win,New Approach did it also in the Dewhurst.
In the Racing Post Trophy,Saxon Warrior was near the front of the chasing Group behind the Front runner,when the Leader folded,he ran out of lead horses and found himself in front too soon.
Like a lot of horses in this situation in races,he was a sitting duck for a late finisher .
He got headed and rallied to win the race.
Only very good horses can do this,all other horses cannot summon up more energy that late on in a race
that pans out for them in a similar fashion.
That's how I see it,and being a massive 2 year old,he can only grow more throughout the season and fill into his frame and obviously has scope to improve more.
He is more likely to achieve the Triple Crown, for as with Camelot who was unlucky not to do it,Camelot in the parade ring at the Guineas,looked a tad on the small side compared to him.
By:
impossible123
When: 23 May 18 11:50
pipedreamer, I hope you are correct. I've availed myself to his (Saxon Warrior) 4/1 for the Derby and Triple Crown at 25/1 prior to 2000G run. We shall know fairly soon.
By:
impossible123
When: 23 May 18 12:09
Despite The Pentagon finishing 3rd behind Hazapour and Delano Roosevelt in the Derrinstown given an unusual ride ie ridden with the pace early and starting fav he's 50 here, 3x the prices of the other two; he's also likely to have his ground at Epsom too.
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