Forums

Horse Antepost

There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 766 comments are related to the topic:
epsom derby 2018

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
Page 2 of 20  •  Previous | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | ... | 20 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 766
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 13 May 18 17:56
saxon warrior is a seriously impressive beast. he looked indeed like he had grown over the winter if the guineas was anything to go by. a proper three year old he looked like.

tom segal said he didn't win the guineas so much in the same way as nashwan or sea the stars, it was more like dancing brave blowing them all away. He thinks he could be one of the greatest horses ever.

but is it too early to go that much over board? I guess if there is a weakness there, it could be either in a stamina sense, or perhaps that the guineas wasn't as great a race as we thought going into it.

sure the guineas generally is the best trial for the derby, but as gamblers I guess you feel duty bound to assess whether or not he truly represents value or not. The other question mark in my mind is stamina. on pedigree and running style he should have no problem getting the 1 mile four, but at Newmarket he looked quite a muscular, powerful colt. Not as muscular as churchill was, but still. On pedigree by deep impact out of a galileo mare he should have no problem stepping up in trip, he may even improve for it and win the derby by five lengths.

I guess the other problem with taking on saxon warrior is the opposition. the two trials last week looked dire to my eyes, even if young rascal should be better suited by the track at Epsom.

barring a minor miracle and next weeks dante throwing up an impressive winner, in another trial featuring some unimpressive looking colts, it looks as if saxon warrior will go into the race as one of the shortest price favourites in epsom history, although there's still just this nagging doubt in my mind that he's not as invulnerable as it seems.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 13 May 18 18:05
I've noticed as well that O'brien hasn't come out with the usual platitudes like "this is the best horse we've ever had here. The things he does at home is unbelievable. He could run in the july cup or ascot gold cup".

Perhaps that's not relevant, but it also seems significant to me that he chose not to go to newmarket, but went to the kentucky derby instead. Although he did also describe Saxon Warrior as a monster, so there's still some room to get some future stallion hype in...
By:
Deptford
When: 13 May 18 18:59
I would take Tom Pricewise opinion like I would drink bleach
By:
Figgis
When: 13 May 18 19:04
tom segal said he didn't win the guineas so much in the same way as nashwan or sea the stars, it was more like dancing brave blowing them all away. He thinks he could be one of the greatest horses ever.

I'm not knocking Saxon Warrior's Derby credentials in any way, as even a placed horse in a decent Guineas has a very good chance providing it stays, but that seems a massively over the top prediction from Segal based on the evidence so far. For me this year's Guineas was the slowest (even accounting for the pace) and weakest in the last 10 years. As for 'blowing them all away', well that's much easier to do when the opponents are so poor, Nashwan and Sea The Stars would've been just as impressive against that lot.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 13 May 18 19:59
interesting thoughts figgis. it seems to me from what i've read that hardly a single person has anything negative to say about saxon warrior; the general consensus is that he was awesome in the guineas and is a shoe-in in the derby. Perhaps people are so in awe of O'Brien and his grip over the derby that people have stopped bothering to analyse or question it. the world's greatest race is over before it's even started.

just have one or two doubts about that. it also seems obvious that O'Brien hasn't got the back-up firepower that he normally has in this race, as he hasn't been winning the trials like he normally does. maybe that has nothing to do with saxon warrior, but I don't know. just feels like another slight negative.
By:
dunlaying
When: 13 May 18 20:52
There are plenty who don't see Saxon Warrior as a certainty .
By:
unclepuncle
When: 13 May 18 22:35
Dancing Brave got beat in the Derby?Devil
By:
Madhu
When: 14 May 18 00:26
Knight To Behold

I thought Knight To Behold put in a strong staying performance in the Lingfield Derby Trial considering he was pretty keen and looking raw and babyish given his lead changes in the first half. He has a good attitude and will have learnt a lot there. I expect him be on the bridle more off a proper gallop which he’ll get in the Derby and I can see him come on a ton in his second start as a three-year-old. You can’t fault his chances on breeding as he’s by Sea The Stars, sire of 2016 winner Harzand and bred on the same Sadler's Wells cross as Taghrooda, his dam is a half-sister to St Leger winner Millenary and full-sister to  Derby 3rd Let The Lion Roar, and his page includes the wide-margin Oaks winner Sun Princess and Coronation Cup victor Saddlers’ Hall.

Taken 20/1 and also put him in a 272/1 double with Beat The Bank in the Queen Anne.
By:
Lance in France
When: 14 May 18 08:46
[i]I've noticed as well that O'brien hasn't come out with the usual platitudes like "this is the best horse we've ever had here. The things he does at home is unbelievable. He could run in the july cup or ascot gold cup".
That's probably because of the Deep Impact not a Coolmore stud implications. Well that's what the cynic in me thinks!
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 14 May 18 09:56
yeah that's a good point! I hadn't thought of that.

probably after his racing career he'll be packed off to japan.

if he wasn't, aiden would be saying "Unbelievable Richie. The things he does at home, it takes your breath away and breaks my stopwatch. Not only could be win the july cup, but he could win the world cup, while smoking a cigar. we've never had a horse work like this, ever. Well not since the last stallion I hyped up"

Crazy
By:
impossible123
When: 14 May 18 11:07
I'm surprised AOB has indicated he'll be running another 3 along with Saxon Warrior (SW) eg Delano Roosevelt, The Pentagon, Nelson/or possibly Kew Gardens despite SW is looks a very good thing; Nelson to do the donkey work, I suppose. Kew Garden did not seem to have the early pace for this role, I believe, on his Lingfield running.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 14 May 18 12:09
Most of those are bred to be Derby runners so why not run them. SW might break down, have bad luck in running (Dancing Brave!) or just not stay.
If he can win it with a homebred outsider he'll be happy enough and even if they don't win it won't do them any harm - look at Capri last year.
By:
gpz6316
When: 15 May 18 21:12
madhu , i liked knight to behold too. though he reminds me very much of a horse called perfect sunday whom won this trial and though suited by the course and distance of the derby didnt have enough class . which is my concern with him . i backed him too at 20ish as i think i can lay off easy if he gets there . i,d really like him if it were loose ground as he really motored around that bend and he would gain lengths . i wouldnt rule out kew gardens yet , obv he had too much to do , but , you make your own luck and the knight made his . i do think he will lead the derby 1.5f out , but , i see him getting run down by kew gardens in a hard run race with saxon failing to handle the course ! roaring lion will also thrive here so watch out for him too . all a load of guesswork picture becoming clearer the closer it gets .
By:
The Headmaster
When: 15 May 18 22:49
I can see Hazapour playing Sharastani to Saxon Warrior's Dancing Brave. Especially if Ryan goes out with his US Army Ranger hat on.
By:
mr nice
When: 16 May 18 00:26
Odds on for the Derby. Deep Impact progeny, are they prolific middle distance winners, I'm not sure, only asking. His dam, Maybe, she didn't stay 12f.

Looked awesome 3f out in the Guineas, cruising down the golden highway, but not so awesome 100yards from the line as he went for a bit of a wander. Masar and Roaring Lion running him down from the slow lane, no disrespect but 50/1 shot second. Deep Impact running around turning oval tracks in Japan was amazing but didn't see it out in the Arc.

Of course he might win by 5 lengths, but odds on seriously? the Epsom Derby? I'm laying him for much more than I can afford to lose and I'm buzzin.

Then all being well I'll be in Tenerife until the money runs out.

PS If it rains he won't be in the first three.

All the very best to all you gamblers.
By:
impossible123
When: 16 May 18 08:35
I think Saxon Warrior is skinny for a reason. He's trumped all the Group 1 runners in the 2000G in his 1st run of the season despite taking it up too early; he'll win if he sees out the Derby trip. Hazapour has an e/w chance (no more), and the form of the others are clearly inferior.

If Saxon Warrior stays the Derby trip he'll win, and his price reflects that; if one backs Saxon Warrior one is betting he'll stay the Derby trip, I firmly believe.
By:
dunlaying
When: 16 May 18 09:15
I agree with you mr nice . He was untidy at Newmarket and I am far from sure that the Epsom 12f will suit .
By:
Figgis
When: 16 May 18 11:03
For me, there is no question that Saxon Warrior will stay 12f but I don't go along with it meaning he'll definitely win. The Guineas can take a lot out of a horse. Entrepreneur and Pennekamp were short prices and bombed out/finished lame. Whether they stayed or not is immaterial as the point is they were beaten before stamina was an issue. Same with King of Kings. There have been plenty of other Guineas winners (who didn't go the Derby route) that didn't run up to form immediately after the race, some who never reached that level of form ever again. There are only 4 weeks between the Guineas and Derby this year. This could have an effect as it has been recognised that 5 weeks is more favourable for a horse to recover from a tough race. Camelot managed the 2 races within 4 weeks (although in my view he was never the same afterwards) so obviously I'm not saying it can't be done, but for me it is an issue to consider before steaming in on a shorty.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 16 May 18 12:13
This is going to be difficult for obvious reasons but could I make a plea for this thread not to turn into Camp A vs Camp B, where Camp A say Saxon Warrior will definitely win and Camp B say he won't.  Other horses are available, feel free to mention them.
By:
dunlaying
When: 16 May 18 12:46
Another to consider for e/w purposes would be Kew Gardens if he gets the ok to run . He was giving Knight To Behold 3lb and did not appear to be happy on the faster ground at Lingfield . My guess is that Kew Gardens , like Roaring Lion , is on a slower fuse than most . I note that he has an entry in the Arc .
By:
sageform
When: 17 May 18 07:55
I am not saying that the Dante winner will win the Derby but it is very competitive today and if any horse wins it comfortably, it will have to be very good. I like Wells Farhh Go but he may still lack experience and fitness according to Tim Easterby.
By:
charwell.
When: 17 May 18 11:45
I think Saxon Warrior is the only class horse in that 2,000 guineas field. IMHO he beat a load of trees. I think about 1m2f would be his optimum trip.

To take odds on about a horse who beat these plodders, isn't guaranteed to stay and obviously an unknown ability to handle the course is crazy. And that's provided he is the best horse in the race (which is also not a given). If we see an impressive winner of what looks like a very open Dante today (I fancy Northern Lights E/W @ 9/1) his price can only go one way.

I am really sweet on Sevenna Star. Needs the trip and even if not quite having the class to win he just needs to beat quite a few non stayers into the place money. I have 66/1 E/W and have topped up on the exchanges at even bigger. I was also quite taken with Young Rascals performance and have 16/1 (win only) on him.
By:
impossible123
When: 17 May 18 15:37
Roaring Lion was impressive in the Dante, but Derby trip? Trainer repeatedly reiterating Dante is his trip though; a compliment paid to Saxon Warrior.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 17 May 18 15:40
Sounds to me like he doesn't fancy taking on Saxon Warrior again. I think he will probably be aimed at the French Derby.
By:
woodmanchester
When: 17 May 18 15:46
Roaring Lion improved greatly on run behind Masar and effort in Guineas. Hope he goes to Epsom coz got 35/1 about his chances
By:
charwell.
When: 17 May 18 15:47
I was surprised at the ease with which RL won there but JG seems to favour a tilt elsewhere and reiterated he thinks 10f is his optimum trip.
By:
Figgis
When: 17 May 18 16:00
Irrespective of RL's chances I'd take Gosden's negativity with a pinch of salt. His comments have often put punters away in the past. Not suggesting he does it on purpose but he generally sounds over cautious, talks up the opposition and is keen to state what a big task his runners have. He gave RL his debut over a mile, kept him to that trip and raced him 3 times last year over the trip with give in the ground. Doesn't seem to me that he'd fear stepping him up to 12f as a 3yo.
By:
bobbyjo
When: 17 May 18 16:00
Great shout HM, lets hope he takes his chance
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 17 May 18 16:01
Sheikh Fahad will want to have a crack at Epsom surely?
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 17 May 18 16:04
He will stay 12 furlongs in my view but I think Gosden knows Saxon Warrior could be special and the French Derby could be his for the taking.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 17 May 18 16:41
The owner also sponsors the French Derby.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 17 May 18 16:58
Fair point, I'd overlooked that - they only have one other entry for the French Derby too (as far as I can see) - Military Law who won a maiden for Gosden last back end and has n't been seen since.

I can understand why they'd be keen on France then - though personally I think it would be make the Derby a more interesting spectacle if he ran at Epsom (I've no bet in the Derby yet).
By:
dunlaying
When: 17 May 18 17:30
The owner likes the big stage so I wouldn't be surprised to see Roaring Lion at Epsom . I thought it was a nice performance today and probably a few pounds above his Guineas run .
By:
impossible123
When: 17 May 18 17:32
Hazapour is weak, concerned or Roaring Lion induced?
By:
PeteTheBloke
When: 17 May 18 18:33
Vincent (the other O'Brien) used to say that a good 10f horse was what you need for the Derby .
By:
impossible123
When: 17 May 18 18:45
I think Roaring lion is a shoo-in for the French Derby. His owner sponsors the race too; an absentee, I think, unless Saxon Warrior is an absentee here.
By:
PeteTheBloke
When: 17 May 18 18:54
You should bet it with L@dbrokes Impossible - 11/2 with the price boost - 7/2 with the other books according to Oddschecker.
By:
gpz6316
When: 17 May 18 19:26
chantilly is right handed i123 so id be suprised he needs left handed
By:
impossible123
When: 17 May 18 20:25
Might have a flutter on Roaring Lion then. Also, just asked for his inclusion here.
By:
impossible123
When: 17 May 18 21:07
Latest from Gosden is to hold fire on Roaring Lion until a decision made, and Sevenna Star is waiting for Ascot's King Edward VII Stakes.
Page 2 of 20  •  Previous | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | ... | 20 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
‹ back to topics
www.betfair.com