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Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe 2017
Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe 2017
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Replies: 448
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To be fair to Gosden it looks as though Cracksman may well not run again this year which would at least make some sense - though this is definitely the year he has the best chance of winning an Arc.
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The fact that he has said he may run in the Champion Stakes does confound me. They were talking about not giving him a hard race this year yet dropping back to 10f at Ascot would not be easy, I don't think. It has to be that they think there is no chance of him beating Enable. Nothing else fits. So, if that is the case the hint must be taken and the 3 year old colts can be written off now.
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the 3 year old colts can be written off now.
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Only half the sentence there Sandown. Why take things out of context?
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. It has to be that they think there is no chance of him beating Enable. Nothing else fits. So, if that is the case the hint must be taken and the 3 year old colts can be written off now.
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With some forecasts now suggesting heavy rain on Sunday I've done Dschingis Secret @ 20 and One Foot In Heaven @ 200 (who I also tipped last year when he came 6th).
GL all. |
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These forecasts change hourly let alone daily
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Dschingis Secret is the only ante post bet I've placed so far, backed him after his Grosser Preis von Berlin win. He impressed me how he won going away, even though he pulled hard for nearly half the race... He settled so much better in the Prix Foy and won a lot easier. I had another EW bet today with the weather forecast looking good (probably change) for him. Always a good read this thread... and the one that got destroyed.
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That's better S. the most important word is 'if'.
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few tricast's in the race for me, don't like any of the European horses
enable/capri/ oosg/winter/Ulysses enable/Ulysses/ winter/capri/oosg 6 lines small stakes |
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The OOSG raindance might just be working.
Various forecasts showing some heavy rain for the weekend now. If it does arrive, I think he is incredible value at 12/1. You can get double your return on him just placing, than you can backing Enable to win. |
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Is there an exchange ante post market for this. ??
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^ Yes - go to horse racing, antepost, Fra.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/horse-racing/market/1.127697310?nodeId=27979395 |
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The market is reacting today to the news that the going at Chantilly is currently soft (3.7) and the mixed weather news which includes the possibility of anything up to 20mm between now and Sunday.
First of all, 20mm is not by itself abnormal for this time of year and in normal circumstances would change the going by no more than one degree. But, if the ground is genuinely soft, (and its desribed as being the same as on trials day) any rain will counter any drying that might otherwise take place. If I had to bet on it right now, I would go for good to soft on Sunday because of the way in which the course is prepared, with fresh ground being kept back, and because there is a good chance that we wont see 20mm. Nevetheless, this will not be in the best interests of horses like Ulysses, Highland Reel, Winter (trip) or Satono Diamond.It will favour Enable, OOSG,Dschingis Secret, Brametot, Zarak. |
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The possible rain and your comments Sandown just about sums up my Arc and has made me make my final bet on Enable. I could wait to see if the rain does arrive but that would mean putting all of my eggs in one basket. If the rain does materialise then I will only realistically have Enable running for me and that will only be for small winnings as a get out. If it doesn't rain then I could have sizable winnings from Highland Reel, Cliffs of Moher and Satono Diamond and nice winnings from Winter. Any other result would mean
 . That's life. |
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Of course I will also have Enable if the rain doesn't arrive.
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for me enable is too short at around evens and as we know these french races of ten get messy with a lot of hard luck storys post race ,add to that o,brien looks likely to be mob handed and team tactics will have been discussed and they will have come up with a plan to maximise the chances of their main challengers and minimise the chances of the opposition , interesting that stouty runs ulysess here rather than the champion stakes makes me think that team stoute fancy their chances of turning the filly over , anyway some massive prices away from the fav and i will be having 2 or 3 against her at big prices and will lay her at around evens or shorter .
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Enable done at 2.66 tonight?
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Highland Reel out to 80s and Winter in to 21. Cliffs of Moher shorter than HR on here.
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I am with Mr Dinos , Dschingis Secret in that soft ground , managed to get a bit of 14/1 - imo he hasbeen the most visually impressive in his lead up races.
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Silverwave is worth a small interest e/w at fancy odds.
Son Cesio is not without a chance in the sprint . 33/1 e/w is tempting. |
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Clerk of the course Matthieu Vincent had some slightly better news for those wanting drier conditions, with the Chantilly ground – although still officially soft – now at 3.5 on the penetrometer from yesterday’s 3.7.
“The outlook is unstable and we could get rain on Friday night or Saturday morning andf again on Sunday,” he said. “By that stage we might have got to 3.4 which is pretty much good to soft so it will depend what happens after that.” |
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There good to soft, pretty dam soft!
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Limato scratched from the Prix De La Foret due to expected soft ground. MB will make a decision regarding Big Orange tomorrow.
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Well the predicted showers for Monday never materialised, the predicted showers for tomorrow are far from certain and Saturday they are saying showers possible. We live in hope.
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The odd thing is they have had very little rain since the trials and none at all in the last 10 days yet the day before yesterday it was the same as trials day at 3.7 then one day later it was 3.5 and expecting it to be 3.4, good to soft, on Friday.
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The weather forecast I have for the racecourse is Partly Cloudy tomorrow, Patchy rain possible Friday, Light rain 2.6mm Saturday, Patchy rain possible Sunday.
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Laurie, according to jockey Christophe Lemaire, the ground is softer today than it was for the trials, and it was really tacky then. On top of that, the forecast (if you can trust them) is for rain on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Irrespective of the quantity, if all this is correct (and betting patterns suggest it is) then it's going to be soft, so maybe this is the reason for several trainers concerns, not only with Arc entries.
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Hi Andrew I read that too. I'm not sure where the gallop was but that doesn't coincide with the rainfall they have had since. The CoC stated that he hoped to get to 3.4 but I'm not sure when. Before Friday night or after the light rain he expected. I understand Hendy not running Limato so I expect the next test will be what AOB does. I see no point in running horses not capable of performing on the ground I just hoped we would get a good test for the filly. I've backed Enable anyway to try to ensure a small profit but if the only danger is OOSG it will be disappointing, to say the least. I'd prefer you had I nice sunny couple of days in Paris.
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*Henry
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If OOSG wins im packing in!
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Going to also speculate with the Japanese runner Satono Diamond at 20/1 - Satano was my first choice but i went for Dschingis Secret based on the reports of soft ground - but if those reports are bogus then at least i'll have one who reportedly performs better on quicker ground.
Good luck all for this weekend. |
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Thanks Laurie, we all want sunshine when we go away, but if Vazirabad wins the Cadran on Saturday and Enable struts her stuff the way i expect on Sunday, then it can rain every hour as far as i'm concerned
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Good luck Andrew. They do look like bankers.
The weather forecast now is no rain today, no rain tomorrow, no rain Saturday, patchy rain possible Sunday. Going down to the wire. |
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The French going descriptions/,measurements are confusing, to say the least. Given as 3.5, hoping to get it to get 3.3 ssuggests that the lower[/b the figure, the [b]faster the ground.
Here, the figure gets higher the faster the ground. Eg. Ascot June 23 GF, watered, 9.1.Feb 18 soft, g/s places 5.5 (source Turftrax) Anybody understand why? For what its worth, my figures for Chantilly on trials day indicate that the ground was no worse than good to soft, based on times/ratings that day. So, if there has been little rain since then, and little rain forecast, the idea that the ground on Sunday will be soft or worse, given fresh ground several metres out from the rail, is somewhat fanciful. Figgis, what do you say? |
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"The GoingStick accurately measures the penetration (the amount of force required to push the tip into the ground) and the shear (the energy needed to pull back to an angle of 45 degrees from the ground). These two measures taken in combination represent a scientifically based proxy for the firmness of the ground and level of traction experienced by a horse during a race."
Source : Turtrax site |
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NB A 3.5 reading would make the ground a virtual bog within the UK context
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Highland Reel and Cliffs of Moher do not run. AOB runs 5. OOSG, Winter, Idaho, Seventh Heaven and Capri. So I am down to Enable, Winter, Satono Diamond and I had a few shillings on Idaho yesterday at 110 because of the ground and he nearly ran down Ulysses in the KG. Still in with a shout.
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Sandown it is a pity they don't use the same stick it would make it easier but in the past, I have seen different racecourse come up with weird going stick measurements.
The fact that so many top of the ground horses have been withdrawn means it must be pretty certain it won't dry out. Given that I thoght Seventh Heaven was supposed to be a top of the ground horse. Who will Moore ride? |
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different UK courses that is
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