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Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe 2017
Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe 2017
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If you take the time to read what I have written Harry you will see I have already said quite clearly she is this season's 12f champion. Why, do you think she is the sprint champion or mile champion or even 10f champion? You tell me.
Absolutely wrong. She impresses me. She is clearly the best horse over the distance albeit at the moment with wfa but that is OK. I have extolled her virtues in the past and she won me a nice bit when she won the King George. But, as Timeform wrote so eloquently 'the adjective great has been so overused it has practically lost its meaning'.'The English language is in such a bad way it can no longer cope with the exceptional. This is as much the fault of the journalist as anyone'. |
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brigust everything you say is ambiguous tbh
just out of interest who do you consider to be an exceptional filly down the years??? not colt so we can be clear just filly |
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I would rather you explained 'everything you say is ambiguos'. HC.
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I would rather you explained 'everything you say is ambiguos'. HC. i have no wish to take the bate
I want champions who have earned their position and it is substantiated by the quality of horses they have beaten not foisted upon them by the press or Coolmore. what has she not earned this season brigust?iyo i just want you to tell me who you consider to be an exceptional filly and then i can understand why you disagree she is? |
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is she wins the Arc she will be a "great"
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she may well have to win to achieve greatness AT but that still wouldn't take from me, that she is an exceptional filly
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brigust I don't know why you mention wfa. Dancing Brave won his Arc and KG with wfa - on more favourable terms than 3yos today. does this detract from his reputation?
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A pretty disgusting decision from team Gosden/Oppenheimer IMHO.They have waffled on repeatedly now for months over this look after the horse theory,4 yr old campaign etc.
Yet this morning they withdraw from an Arc to seemingly have a tilt at a Champion Stakes that will probably be fiercely run and in **** ground. Where is the sense in this with a view to conserving the horse, eh for next years Arc. Couple of shiesters and everything that is wrong with the game. Lets all look afer number 1, and lets all have a dip of the nose in the trough along the way. Horses wellbeing as we have heard repeatedly now absolutely not even a consideration!Sporting owner bla bla,my foot! |
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You have no wish to accept you are talking rubbish would be more accurate.
And I do believe she is an exceptional filly compared with what is around. Just as Frank Bruno was an exceptional boxer compared with what was around. I cannot say more than I think she is clearly the 12f champion this season. If you are not happy with that I cannot help you. Losing in the Arc cannot take away from her what she has already achieved and her price and the prices of the opposition shows that it will not necessarily improve her achievements. Time will tell. Of course it does not detract from Dancing Brave's reputation A_T he was clearly the best of his generation plus he beat the best of the older generation who very good horses. I also believe the three year old colts in his generation were very good horses unlike the three year old colts this season. I cannot change that. Enable has beaten the best of her older generation but I think you would have to agree that Ulysses could have been disadvantaged by the ground and the trip, Highland Reel was disadvantaged by the ground and Jack Hobbs never ran to form. I cannot change that and I have to accept it. Things may be completely different in the Arc where she will be meeting most of the older generation on a track and with underfoot conditions to suit them. This could be a different ballgame. That is what horse racing is all about. |
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brigust I don't know why you say the older horses were good in 1986 - Shardari was beaten in a listed race as a 3yo and the Derby, Prix du Jockey Club, King George and Arc winner from 1985 did not race the following year
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I am not getting into that A_T but Ulysses was 12th of 16 beaten 23 lengths in the Derby and he is likely the main dnger to Enable.
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I cannot change that. Enable has beaten the best of her older generation but I think you would have to agree that Ulysses could have been disadvantaged by the ground and the trip, Highland Reel was disadvantaged by the ground and Jack Hobbs never ran to form. I cannot change that and I have to accept it.
very ambiguous, covers most angles tbh i totally disagree in regards ulysses but suits your thinking You have no wish to accept you are talking rubbish would be more accurate. And I do believe she is an exceptional filly compared with what is around. Just as Frank Bruno was an exceptional boxer compared with what was around. so as i thought you don't think she is an exceptional filly, otherwise you wouldn't insult her and me like you have and using frank bruno proves my thinking was correct so thanks for that then you move on to the ground being a leveller at chantilly in comparison to ascot because this helps you're thinking or how you want to argue the case against her achievements because as far as you are concerned no horses did any running at ascot... well i don't buy that she was just much the best on the day and as far as i am concerned ulysses gave his running and clearly likes cut in the ground, i know you like to think the third was unlucky as well when basically he didn't have the pace to even consider challenging and was only closing on the second because ulysses had been buried by the filly, he at least challenged her, he may well be best at 10f but that isn't proven... when the filly bolted up on fast ground at epsom in a fast time what was the problem with this effort? i suppose the second didn't stay this day as well, a similar argument to your ulysses one sometimes brigust horses do stay but are just beaten by class and speed...i except highland reel doesn't handle that ground but he may well of just run poorly because of his early season efforts, he has never really been that good anyway a low level group 1 horse who has been well placed by his trainer |
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I think by saying she is clearly the 12f champion means when compared to what is around she is an exceptional filly. that So you don't think Frank Bruno was an exceptional boxer? Forty five fights, forty wins and 35 KO's.
It is all relative and the other nonsense you spouted HC was just that, nonsense. If you think the horses Enable beat in the King George all had their conditions and performed to the best of their ability then good luck to you. And you don't have to tell me about the King George I watched it. Albeit a couple of weeks later. You know I was criticised all over the place because I thought Enable had an outstanding chance in the King George and had backed her at good prices long before she was declared to run while I stated quite clearly at the time that her previous form was not fantastic and that was before the ground conditions deteriorated against her main opposition. So if Highland Rel finishes in front of or right behind Enable what will you be saying about Enable then HC? |
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Highland Reel
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frank bruno an exceptional boxer you clearly know as much about boxing as you do racing brigust and in regards to me spouting nonsense i find that hard to bare reading your theories, if you asked me who i think is an excetional boxer i would say floyd mayweather or sugar ray leonard frank bruno an excetional boxer, no offence if your reading frank...
your only form of handicapping horses is horse A finishing near horse B which surprises when the horse you fancy for this is highland reel and before that cracksman and before that emminent didn't you back 2 others before backing the filly for the king george?... you clearly want credit for backing her but didn't you back her and 2 others jack hobbs was one if memory serves So if Highland Rel finishes in front of or right behind Enable what will you be saying about Enable then HC?[/b] i would evaluate the race before spouting on about horse A highland reel finishing upsides horse B enable... you however would have all angles covered for sure brigust, its the same if enable beats him 6l you will say he didn't run to form or he needed a run for the breeders cup and o'brien is at it, that would cover you there for sure... so whats the point in me saying i think she would destroy him if both ran to form |
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Floyd Mayweather and Sugar Ray Leonard did they fight Frank Bruno? I missed that. But you completely prove my point. Frank Bruno was one of the best around at his weight at that time but that does not make him a great boxer.
I don't even know if you backed Enable in the King George but I thought then that she was the best around at her distance even when meeting her opponents on their required conditions so try getting your facts right first, that would be a good start. You can wriggle and squirm as much as you like HC the fact is that hopefully in the Arc she will be able to show us just how good she is. Where you get the comment 'she would destroy him if they both ran to form' I don't know. Why not enlighten me on the form lines that show you that Enable would destroy Highland Reel if they both ran to form. That would be interesting. In your own time. |
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So, Cracksman doesn't run, the second fav out. How does the market react? Hardly a ripple. Why? Because Cracksman not running was already factored into the prices. The chance of every horse remains much the same as it was before this morning's news.
A discussion about Enable or any other horse is worse than useless without taking prices into account.What makes us think that we can actually work out beforehand what will happen when there is so much that we don't know, can't know, will never know, yet people speak with such certainty about an outcome. We cannot agree on what has happened in the PAST let alone what might happen in the FUTURE. There are countless examples of short-priced horses being beaten, not just in the Arc but every race ever run. To take just one case in point, that of Orfevre when he got done by Solemia. With just 100 yards to go, he was all over the winner yet he was beaten by a 66/1 shot rated 17 pounds behind on RPR's, who he had just passed. Orfevre traded at 1.01 in running. Not only did everyone get the outcome wrong, they got it wrong with just a few yards to go. This is horse racing. It's not roulette but its not a crossword puzzle either. There is no right answer. Good luck if you have backed Enable at big prices because you have a good bet. Backing Enable at its current price is a BAD VALUE bet - WIN OR LOSE! IMO of course! |
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Im posting this just before the Beresford Stakes.Saxon Warrioor is 2.02 fav after just one run, yet he is 12 lbs behind the top rated horse (Kew Gardens) and is behind every other horse as well. They are all capable of considerable improvement, so at the price SW is rank bad value for anyone not in the know. At this price, he not only has to find that 12 lb he has to find at least that much again to be value.No bet.
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The difference between your two examples S is that with Saxon Warrior there is nothing to guide us except the jockey bookings and with Orfevre he was quirky and running on heavy ground he had never encountered before. A friend of mine rang me today to say he was having a good bet on this today and I asked him what form he was going on.
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SW found enough to win, great for anyone who backed him. He won comfortably enough to beat horses rated higher than him and clearly improved RELATIVE to the other horses by around 7lbs. How could we , not connected, possibly have known beforehand. Only those connected to the stable would have had an idea or two. All we had to go on that he would improve sufficiently RELATIVELY was the betting. But whilst that helps confidence, its not enough to play AT THAT PRICE.
With Enable, there is more to go on, clearly. But her edge over the other horses in the race is NOT SUFFICIENT to justify the price of 2.00. ULYSSES is 4 times the price for a ratings difference of 3lbs on RPR's. HR is 14 times the price of ENABLE despite on adjusted ratings being 2lb in front of her. And so on. Obviously, other factors come into play, but the RELATIVE price versus the RELATIVE chance is the nub of it. That said, Enable looks the most likely winner. |
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Good luck if you have backed Enable at big prices because you have a good bet. Backing Enable at its current price is a BAD VALUE bet - WIN OR LOSE! IMO of course! what about when evaluating the opposition you price her up at 2/1 on sandown and she wins by 4l... is she still a bad value bet at even money then iyo? i haven't had a bet mind as not my kind of bet but by saying what you are saying, you are saying that she should not be bet on full stop and if she wins easily so be it but some may price up the race differently to you... last year you laid found for this for reasons i can't remember but i would argue to you she is far from bad value against these horses imo in fact i would say she is a 4/7 shot on all known form so you are purely wagering on whether your theory of the king george paying off and she runs badly... in a normal year before the french ruined there breeding through the french derby dropping in distance i may agree, as you would have more running for you as a layer but being as the 3 year old colts are an average bunch this year like they were last year and the older horses are as slow as a boat i just don't see the angle and especially when all you are playing with is the hope she is over the top but answer me one question sandown, in which race do you believe frankie took her into the red and she had a hard race? |
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brigust I fear you have missed the point with my Orfevre example and no doubt any more words from me will not enable you to see that point.
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what about when evaluating the opposition you price her up at 2/1 on sandown and she wins by 4l... is she still a bad value bet at even money then iyo?
I am at a loss for words if you cannot distinguish between FORESIGHT and HINDSIGHT |
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ok lets put it another way, i don't think she is bad value at even money sandown
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but some may price up the race differently to you...
Of course they may, which is why I added IMO last year you laid found f Irrelevant point whether your theory of the king george paying off and she runs badly... No I'm not. See my earlier post about RELATIVE chances in which race do you believe frankie took her into the red and she had a hard race? Any horse racing on soft ground and winning in a fast time has not had an EASY race. Whether it has a HARD race or not the trainer would be the best judge of that. But how often have you heard the trainer of a beaten runner declare that there was no sign of the horse being over the top, or not fully recovered. As I've said, Enable is the most likeliest winner. |
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ok lets put it another way, i don't think she is bad value at even money sandown
Fair enough. That's your opinion, mine is different, and that's what makes a market |
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My point S is that I don't know how you can be confident about something when there are variables unknown. I agree that even money is short considering the variables unknown with Enable and allowing for the fact that is not my kind of price. That would not prevent me from using her as a saver though. I have said before I go through the race then look at the prices of the principles after deciding. This does through up some decent priced horses but if I am backing a shortie I like to feel I have all of the possible boxes ticked, not some.
The other thing is that JG is no-ones fool. He could easily have encouraged Oppenheimer to run Cracksman giving him cover. She must, therefore, be in very good nick and he must be very confident about her handling the ground. This is much removed from Ryan Moore choosing one of AOB's horses while he is still running all of the others. This is a confidence decision I cannot remember seeing before. |
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*throw
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Any horse racing on soft ground and winning in a fast time has not had an EASY race. Whether it has a HARD race or not the trainer would be the best judge of that
yes indeed and he turned her out quickly at york so thats what the trainer thought of ascot... she ran below her best at york but still won easily, in america they call it a paid work out...she has had a tough season in regards the races she has taken in but i think she hasn't had to work that hard in order to win those races and that is because she is very good however this race has been a graveyard for horses who have had a tough season, the trouble is the opposition is weak class wise so even money imo has put the chances of her running badly into consideration, otherwise imo she would be short here against these horses |
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A_T
24 Sep 17 12:56 trouble with that view brigust is that there is nothing she can do to impress you If she can win the Arc on decne tground from HR, OoSG and Ulysses by 2+ lengths that will enhance her reputation greatly. A narrow hard fought win will simply keep her where she is, very good but not an all time great, and a defeat will simply mean she is similar to Taghrooda - hardly a horse that will be remembered in 25 years time. harry callaghan 24 Sep 17 12:58 so would you not call Enable a champion on her runnings this year then brigust?? She is clearly champion middle distance three year old filly, but if she gets beat in the Arc then she will be one / one agaisnt the colts/older horses and so can't really be considered an all age champion or a potential all time great. All IMHO. I hope she does win decisively. |
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I agree with that Uncle, I think. If Enable beats these easily on their favoured conditions then that must enhance her reputation. I just wish there was something of similar ability to test her. Perhaps a Golden Horn or a Found. Something that would make it a proper contest we can salivate over.
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the opposition is [i]weak class wise[/i]
Good grief. The likely opposition has clocked up 22 GI wins between them plus many near misses and 2nd & 3rd in last years' Arc.Every year myopia sets in and people can not look beyond one horse which dazzles everyone. If this is a weak race, then what year isn't? |
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Perhaps a Golden Horn or a Found
Only one horse can win the Arc each year not two. |
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I'll say one thing. I will be amazed if JG sees Enable as an even money chance. The man is nothing if not a realist.
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Are you sure A_T? I'm sure one year Sagace and Rainbow Quest won it. Sandown that is th only way I can accept them not running Cracksman, because he is a realist and believes there is no way he could beat her. I struggle to find any other reason.
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I can accept them not running Cracksman, because he is a realist and believes there is no way he could beat her. I struggle to find any other reason.
And that is going to look a very questionable decision if she finishes down the field like so many previous British 3yo favourites - Salsabil, Reference Point, Generous, etc. |
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I so hope you are wrong A_T. I backed Cracksman at big prices for the Derby and some say he should have won, I backed him for the Irish Derby and some say he should have won if Enable runs poorly in the Arc I will likely have a treble up I certainly didn't want.
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because he is a realist and believes there is no way he could beat her
I'll take JG's comments at face value and that the decision is based on what is best for Cracksman, which is that the horse will be stronger and more mature next year .... which implies that he does not think that the horse is up to the necessary level to win it this year. The fact that he has Enable only helps to come to that decision. The horse would have more than just Enable to beat, so being a realist, it was clearly a decision taken sometime ago. What would be interesting to know is what he would have decided if Enable had been injured in the run-up? |
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If Enable had been scratched form the race over the last two or three weeks there is no doubt whatsoever that Cracksman would be running with Frankie riding - and he would be about 2/1 favourite.
Going for the Champion Stakes over 10f is a totally bonkers decision and I don't see how it is going to be better for him in terms of his potential progress next season - that is just a load of piffle (and I usually respect Gosden). |
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unclepuncle 11 Sep 17 14:18
It will be a real shame if they don't let Cracksman take his chance - and I say that with no financial involvement on the race. They keep talking about saving him for his 4 year old career but what is the aim - to win the Arc next year? He may not be fit and well next October, and even if he has a good season and makes the gig, as a 4 year old colt he will be at a massive disadvantage (only two have won this century). |