Jack, no I haven't, well not what you'd call significant research anyway. Just from general observations I'd say trainers can have an effect. For instance I'd be more inclined to favour an O'Brien horse that's had a busy time of things over a Johnston runner that's only run fast once, but I doubt I'm alone there . For me, horses going past their peak is the holy grail of betting. Everything else is easy in comparison. The best I can do is make a broad generalisation and work it into the odds.

I think you are comparing chalk with cheese here S. The French season is geared toward the Arc whereas the UK season is not.
As far as F&M are concerned you have six runners and six losers. According to the Pari Mutuel odds they were Aunt Edith 4/1, Dahlia 8/1, Pawnese (coupled) at 4/1 would have been much higher on the books having been well beaten in the Vermeille and overlooked by St Martin, Park Top at 4/1, Time Charter at 9/4 and Tghrooda at 11/2. At the odds I can see no problem. If they had all been even money then maybe, but not at these odds.
And it is not as if they ran badly as though the season was taking its toll. Dahlia and Pawnese had problems. Of the UK horses Park Top was given a bad ride to finish 2nd, Time Charter was also given what could be described as a poor ride in finishing a very close 4th, Taghrooda I have already pointed out was drawn badly raced wide and was beaten by potentially two better horses on the day in Treve and Flintshire. Aunt Edith was only short because of a coughing epidemic in France eliminating the best three year olds plus a swamp fever epidemic which barred the French horses from travelling to the UK. Had these horses just been inexplicably well beaten you may have a case but they were not.

I think the gender of the horses involved is of small significance, if significant at all. The fact is that historically the Arc is littered with good runners that failed to perform to their best after hard seasons. Yes it's a championship race but it's a race like any other, where the best horse on the day wins. Sometimes that also happens to be the horse with the best form that season but often it isn't.

Don't be silly. Nijinsky may have lost because he ran in the Leger and had ringworm. I don't think he lost because he ran in the King George. It was a canter.

The Japanese runners are a completely unknown quantity so we have no idea whether them running in the King George jeopardised their chances.

Trying to find a reason to lay Enable is one thing but I think using the King George as a crutch is not correct. Lay her if you think circumstances may help you or because at around Evens there is not that much to gain or risk. Lay her because you think her season will play against her, in general, there is absolutely nothing wrong with making a decision and putting your money down. Just try to make it for the right reasons, that would help.

Deep pockets to be running single runners at 8/1.

Given that the KGQE is the top 12f G1 race in GB and on ratings at least has an average adjusted  RPR for the winner the same as the Arc, it would be unusual indeed if these winners, when running in the Arc, were not somewhere near the top of the ratings for the Arc and would be in the main short in the market.   

How then should we rate their overall success of 6/38 (15.8%) or 6/28 (21.8%) for males and 0/6 (0%) for females? Of course, the combined sample is small and for females too small to be confident about any strong conclusions especially when so much is not known about performance consistency between males and females.

Unfortunately, we have to make our judgement based on what we know and what we can infer rather than what we don't know and can only speculate about, especially when it come to what might have been.

Rare but good to encounter sensible discussion on a thread about the merits and chances of participants.

For what it's worth, and all things being equal, I think Enable can only lose the race if she's had one race too many ie Yorkshire Oaks, akin to Postponed beaten by Found and Highland Reel despite walking all over them previously; history and stats are there to be shot at and/or rewritten, I believe.

But I think Enable is a definite lay at evens/odds-on on good/firm ground given the propensity of the other principal runners to perform on such surface.

^

Dschingis Secret never been unplaced going right-handed: 3-3-1-1-1-1-1. ;)

I've looked  in a little more depth at the KG/Arc record, specifically the SP's of those involved. I would have to say that the poor female record is not proven as if Enable wins, then the expected number of wins for the 7 females trying for the double would be around 1.5 at current prices versus 1 actual,so I couldn't say that would be significant.

On the overall picture, however, at SP's (with caution where we have PMU prices and coupling applying sometimes) I would say that we might have expected 9.5 winners instead of the 6 we have. Is that significant? Well, if Enable should win that would raise the expected total to 10 versus 7 actual. So still below expectations by 3 or 30%.

I think that the overall case that the KG winners have performed below par is closer to being proven. But, we are dealing with small numbers but that's all we have.

Sandown it is difficult to work by starting prices because I would have thought the bookmakers/tote profit has to be included and that, in a 20 plus runner field can be quite high. The starting price I believe does not accurately represent their price. Bfair prices would possibly be a more accurate guide.
Don't you think?

If Enable wins the Arc it will have to be said she is exceptional

I agree ....... but it's quite possible she is

Figgis

Obviously its not the race itself but the fact that both represent the highest value G1 12f races in Europe and are highly competitive  requiring  maximum performance to win. It may also have something to do with the 2 month interval between the races which means either letting the horse down for a short while and hoping it comes back or keeping it ticking over which may not be possible. Not sure either about August prep races. Much prefer the French training methods which give the horse at least a 6  week break.Just speculating.

Andrew, I agree it is possible Enable is exceptional. She is definitely the 12f champion this season so far. What the opposition is I think we all know. It has long been claimed and proven so far that the UK and French three-year-old colts are an average bunch. The older horses, according to the betting including Ulysses, Order of St George, Dischings Secret and Highland Reel etc are not what I would have considered at the beginning of the season as being very top class. The Japanese horse is less known but was well beaten in his trial, his colleague was well beaten last year in the Arc having narrowly beaten Midterm in his trial so the writing is fairly clearly on the wall.

To a certain extent, it is Enable's race to lose but there is one fly in the ointment I keep coming back to time and again. Highland Reel.
I have always thought HR couldn't win a strongly run 12f race with give in the ground and that was fairly well proven in the King George. However in this race last year he finished 2nd in a race which included horses I believe are better than run this year. Namely Found and Postponed. The race appeared to be well run and on good ground, he ran past Order of St George and Postponed in the home straight where I thought he would not. To my surprise, the gradual (10m) climb in the home straight at Chantilly certainly appeared to help him. Maybe his Achilles heel is just the ground, and not his stamina. If that is the case then he has a very real chance this time. Especially as the weather forecast is for sun every day now until raceday. After all, he was a short-priced favourite for the King George for a long time until Enable was a certain runner then the weather went against him. He has been rested since the King George so will be a fresh horse. And if, as expected, Winter doesn't run then I am sure RM will ride him. His form is there for all to see.

Freud?

HR has run 9 times over 12f where the going was good or better. Won 5, 2nd twice and unplaced twice where there could he be excused. First time out in Meydan where he finished 4th to Postponed in a Gr1 having just returned from Australia and Hong Kong and in the Irish Derby where he was 2nd favourite, ridden by RM but sweated up badly and clearly, through his stable companions, he never ran his race.
So 12f on good or better ground is not a problem. He was 2nd in this race last year running on so I see no problem there. His form is better than any other threat to Enable from any other of the older horses. Unless one of the younger generation puts in a performance hitherto not shown then I see him as the only danger to Enable. Unless Winter runs, of course.

Does anyone have any opinion (or even better insider knowledge ) on which horse Moore will ride? As this will surely affect the market when announced. I'll say up front that I have no idea who he'll pick, as I was surprised he was about to ride Clemmie in the Moyglare the other weekend.

Your fascination with the King George amazes me S. When I go through a race I list those I think can win and those I think cannot. I list with and without certain ground conditions and potential race tactical conditions based on form. Which I believe is the most reliable model.
I have already said I don't think Ulysses will be placed because I think the race will be run at a strong pace and there is a stiffish (10m) uphill finish. I also think a strong pace will be to the advantage of the more fancied runners. The fact that the ground could well be on the faster side will suit Ulysses that is why I will wait until the day to decide about how I will be laying him.
Enable is clearly the best filly over this trip but her one attempt against the colts could be flawed. Ulysses only just hung on to 2nd place from Idaho who doesn't even make the field. If you look at his form with Harzand he would have little chance anyway. Highland Reel was inconvenienced by the ground and it would not be unreasonable to think, on form, that Highland Reel would have finished 2nd at worst on better ground. Therefore if Highland Reel is only inconvenienced by the ground then his claims in the Arc are stronger than his price suggests for a win as well as a place.
I go into every race thinking about making a profit but I put making the selections first then I look at how I make a profit. Not the other way around.
If there is no profit to be made then I walk away. Similarly, if there is a short-priced fancy and a long-priced fancy I prefer to make the longer priced one the bet and the shorter priced one the saver. Not the other way around. 
I think Moore will ride Winter if she runs or Highland Reel if she does not.

After beating Suave Dancer in the 1991 Irish Derby, which he won from Suave dancer by 3L. Generous took in the KG end July which he won comfortably. He was
then rested until Arc day. Meanwhile SD was rested immediately after the Curragh run, brought back mid Sep for the Irish Champion, which he won, and which was his prep for Longchamp. Generous went off odds on. A certainty was the cry. He was beaten by 9L by Suave Dancer.A nice win for me.

That's why the prep route matters, that's why the KG is a pivotal concern, and that's why Enable could be beaten. Gosden may not have learned from the Taghrooda experience . Either that or taking in the Yorkshire Oaks was seen as a gimme. Has the Arc been her target all along? I wonder.

That's why the KG is important brigust1. Peaking the horse for the race that matters.

I do realise that the same argument applies to Ulysses, by the way.

Either that or taking in the Yorkshire Oaks was seen as a gimme. Has the Arc been her target all along?

I think the Arc was the ultimate aim and the Irish Oaks and Yorkshire Oaks were always the plan along the way. It seemed the King George was as an afterthought when she came out of the Irish Oaks so well and it looked an opportunity too good to miss. That's fair enough if Gosden was as happy to win that race as an Arc. The Arc generally has more depth but a lot of those extra runners are over the top by the time it comes around, and I've said previously the KG often produces as good a winning performance as an Arc. However, there's no denying that the Arc carries more prestige nowadays. As I said before the KG Gosden was taking a big gamble with her Arc prospects by running her there. If he manages to achieve both then credit to him, as it's not a gamble I'd have taken.

I don't think Postponed was laid out for the race. If he was then it was a poor plan. I said before last year's Arc there was an odds on chance Postponed would be over the top for the race, and I wasn't the only one on here who said that.