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Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe 2017
Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe 2017
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The natural progression for the French classic winners is the Arc unlike the English classic winners who may go for the Irish classics route, the Eclipse and King George route or the St Leger
I'd say that's a statement supporting Sandown's argument, rather than opposing it. |
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What Figgis has said is exactly right S. Was the King George an after thought making the decision to run at York the tipping point. But you are not saying that. You are saying running in the King George blindly without taking all of the other decisions into account. It is these decisions you have to include when making the selection at race time.
I think he was trained for the race. He missed the Arc the year before went to Meydan, Coronation Cup, missed the King George, the Juddmonte then the Arc. I don't think for one minute he was trained to win either the Coronation Cup or the Juddmonte. I think he was trained to win the King George which he missed through illness and the Arc. You may think otherwise but he only had two races in England between March and October so how you think he was over the top baffles me. |
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Are you saying you backed Suave Dancer because Generous ran in the King George?
No, I'm not saying that.But it was part of the case against backing Generous at the price. |
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I am not saying the figures do not stand up Figgis because Sandown has said they do but following a trend blind without substantive reasons is fraught with danger and results can very quickly change that to the reverse. It is very much like two year olds in all age sprints for example. The facts may show it is difficult or it is easy but I cannot back or lay a horse simply on statistics or theories. I might include it in the overall picture but that is all.
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so how you think he was over the top baffles me
As I've said before, it's how fast they run and how they ran fast, along with some other factors. A horse can run in 8 races before an Arc before if they're all less than truly run then more often than not it will be a fresher animal than one who's been involved in a couple of strongly run ones. Do you think Postponed ran to form in last year's Arc then? |
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following a trend blind without substantive reasons is fraught with danger and results can very quickly change that to the reverse
Agree with that. |
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As I said before the KG Gosden was taking a big gamble with her Arc prospects by running her there. If he manages to achieve both then credit to him, as it's not a gamble I'd have taken.
If you are right, (and I can see that you could well be) then it was an even bigger temptation. A bird in the hand. Its hard to criticise a trainer like Gosden who proved his judgement to be correct with Golden Horn, but Taghrooda represents the other side of the evidence. Looking back at GH's runs, none after Epsom were run as fast as Enable's KG. Thene there is still the colt vs filly factor. I'm aware that I may be overstating the argument and I'm not saying that Enable's performence is all there is to the doubts. The Arc often produces significant PB improvements, as I've said on earlier years Arc threads. Enable is not out of sight in the way the STS was.It's a mistake to just think that all we have to do is look at what the form is to date. |
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If that is how it is Sandown life would be so easy.
It is possible he ran to form. We know Found didn't run to form in the Coronation Cup and Highland Reel may actually have preferred the Arc trip at Chantilly to the Juddmonte. Some of his form, like beating Eagle Top narrowly in the KG and Spiritjim narrowly at Longchamp is not great. The sharper Meydan track may have suited him so it could be possible he failed to stay at that level in the Arc. He was bang there on the rails but Highland Reel ran past him. Then this year at Meydan he was outstayed by Jack Hobbs on the softer ground. |
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A bird in the hand
Yes, often thought that myself and wouldn't criticise him for that. She could've got injured before the Arc or gone off the boil in the autumn regardless of whether she ran at Ascot or not. Owner, trainer and jockey have won an Arc before so it may have not been as much of a priority as if they hadn't. It's just not a gamble I'd have taken myself. I don't know if there has ever been a British trained Oaks winner go on to win an Arc but there hasn't in my time of following the game so that would've been the aim. |
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It is possible he ran to form
Strongly disagree. It's not even remotely possible as far as I'm concerned. |
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Some of his form, like beating Eagle Top narrowly in the KG and Spiritjim narrowly at Longchamp is not great
When discussing older horses' abilities you often bring the form down to lesser levels achieved as 3yos. Do you not think that many horses improve as 4yos and their 3yo level has been left behind? |
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As a 4 year old in the Coronation Cup he beat Roseburg five and three quarter lengths and in the Juddmonte he beat Mutakayyef two and a quarter lengths. Is that better? As a 5 year old he was beaten by Prize Money, Jack Hobbs and Seventh Heave. Is that better?
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Is that what you call Arc winning form?
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My opinion of the Arc is that Enable is clearly the form horse and can only be beaten by herself, either by too much racing this season, or she simply has an off day as some fillies do towards the end of a season. The former is unlikely, even though some will disagree; she’s had 6 races (aka Sea The Stars and Golden Horn prior to Arc wins, although I appreciate they are colts) but looking back, how many of the 6 did she actually have a hard race ? None is the answer.
I suspect the Chantilly going on the day will probably be on the soft side of good. It was tacky for the trials a couple of weeks ago and has to drain, additionally, there are 3 more days before the Arc where there is 50% or more chance of precipitation (60% on the Saturday) but considering she goes well on all types of going, the weather will be more of an issue for some of her rivals, and may even lead to several not running. The KG and Arc are similar (in some contexts) this year with the latter being run at Chantilly, both RH, galloping tracks with a relatively short run in and uphill finish, so the course will not be an issue, neither will the trip be of course. I think we all agree the UK and French 3 year olds are an average bunch this year, with Cracksman and Bramelot the better of them, but are they good enough ? The older Highland Reel would have to be considered if the ground was firm (unlikely) but could he give 10lb to one of the best 12f fillies in recent years ? I doubt it. Ulysses is a possible, but not for me. The one horse I feel that could get closer than many this year (albeit with clear daylight between the two) is Cracksman and he’s not a certain runner anyway. Enable has a high cruising speed, you can put her anywhere in a race, although she will probably be up with the pace in the Arc (it wouldn’t be a shock to even see her lead most of the way). When Frankie presses the button around the 2f marker, she really strides out, almost Frankel like, and it’s this surge that wins her races, almost bursting lungs of her rivals. Added to this is the WFA that favours 3 year old fillies in the latter part of the season. The draw is important at Longchamp, but to a lesser extent at Chantilly, and considering she’s always up with the pace, I don’t consider an adverse draw will be a significant disadvantage if she gets one. Frankie has experience of bad draws anyway and it didn’t stop Golden Horn winning a couple of years ago (a well-judged ride). The suggestion that winning the KG is a negative to winning the Arc is erroneous in my opinion, it’s a statistic and has no logical substance. Statistics are simply numbers related to occurrences (in this context at least). How many fillies of Enables class have actually ran in the Arc. There are those that feel she will be 6/4, even 2/1 on the day, the latter is surely exaggeration and if Cracksman is a NR I think she will be closer to 4/6 than 6/4. She may even be lower on the PMU with the 20,000+ expected UK contingent there. This leads me to the last part of the equation, will she simply have an off day ? Not even JG or FD will know that, but with the view that I consider her an exceptional filly, i’m happy to risk some of my hard earned. The last time I was so confident of a filly winning the Arc was in 2008 when Zarkava won. I was at Longchamp the year before when she won the Prix Marcel Boussac in the style of an exceptional filly and I made a mental note of her, backing her in all her subsequent races the following year. After watching Enable win at Epsom I had similar thoughts and i’m almost as confident of her winning at Chantilly as I was with Zarkava at Longchamp. My prediction is she will win by 3.5L If she beats, then c'est la vie, I will accept the loss and drown my sorrows in the seedier parts of Paris LOL Good luck to all that play  |
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Is that what you call Arc winning form?
Depends on the Arc. Whether he was good enough to win last year's Arc is not the point, the point is he undoubtedly ran below the levels he'd showed earlier that season. |
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how many of the 6 did she actually have a hard race ?
There is a difference between winning decisively and having an easy race. A horse can win by 6 lengths but if it ran fast to do so then usually it will take something out of the horse. Most trainers would agree with that. |
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Well he did only run twice so we'll just have to leave it at that.
Have a good day Andrew. I'm flying over on Monday. I had thought about going if Cracksman was running but I have reams of editing to complete which I promised to have completed. I too think a filly will win it though the price of Enable is not really my bag. I've backed her at around 2s but just to cover the bets I have had on Cracksman, Eminent and Cliffs of Moher at big prices but not to win any money. I turned down backing her at 6s for the Arc before the King George because I had already had a good bet on her for that. I have had a reasonable bet on Highland Reel at twice what he is on the books and wait until the Cracksman decision is made before I do anything else. Have a good one. |
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how many of the 6 did she actually have a hard race ?
There is a difference between winning decisively and having an easy race. A horse can win by 6 lengths but if it ran fast to do so then usually it will take something out of the horse. Most trainers would agree with that. Figgis, I agree, and maybe I should have expressed it a little differently. In my opinion, she has done both. JG stated after the Irish Oaks (won very easily) she had taken the race really well, hence part of the reason she went for the KG after only 14 days. She does win decisively, often easing down without leaving too much on the course. Of the 6 races she has run this season, only one was faster than standard (Epsom). She could be a filly that actually thrives on racing, in much the same way Found was. |
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Andrew, the thing with Found is even though she had quite a lot of runs as a 4yo she was only performing to her 3yo level until the Irish Champion, where she reached a new level, so those earlier races wouldn't have bottomed her. Anyway, all horses are individuals so maybe Enable can do it one more time.
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Hi Laurie,
Thank you. I'm actually taking the long way around to Paris this time due to a meeting in UK on the Friday. I leave here Thursday night for Stansted, on to Paris the following night from Gatwick, returning there early Monday morning, and on to Sweden from Stansted the same evening. The Arc weekend is my favourite meeting, i've probably seen over 80% of them since Pat Eddery won on Detroit in another life (or it seems that long ago). I backed her, and Moorstyle in the Abbeye, it was probably these results that started my love affair with Longchamp  For fun bets, I often back everything in the Aga Khan colours, if my memory serves me well, he had 6-7 winners over the 2 days several years ago. Enable is not a certainty, or even close, although I feel she will win comfortably. It will not be the end of the world if she doesn't, I will still enjoy Chantilly and Paris. It's a bet, no more. If she wins, the winnings will not be life changing by any means, although my daughter will probably want a day out on Oxford Street later in the year, but I will be content knowing i have probably seen the best 3 year old filly since my beloved Zarkava. Good luck with your bets. |
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I do understand your enthusiasm about individual horses, I feel exactly the same though I follow them less so now as I have so many commitments. I do not follow the daily dross but Cracksman was a typical example even if it was a virtual unknown likely to be heading for the Derby.That is a first for me at least since Grundy who I bet all over the winter and watched him win at Epsom. It makes the sport much more meaningful I feel. I'm off on Monday but I will be back after a couple of weeks to meet the proprietors of the property where Brig is buried. I'm planning to install a couple of benches in time for his anniversary but need their permission. I've already managed to arrange lights and plants over recent years. The headstone is cracked but it is the original so I think I will leave it. After that, it's back to France and then a return in time for the Elvis exhibition at the O2 and to spend Christmas and the New Year with the grandchildren. The Florida holiday hs put the building works back a bit but we are planning to do something similar the year after next so I had better get my skates on.
I've been to Longchamp a few times so I must go back next year when the work is completed. Should be great. Perhaps I will be watching Cracksman run? Who knows. Take care. Be lucky. |
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Monday week
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some horrible aftertiming there andrew
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Sorry Harry, i guess you're referring to Aga Khan, all true, but note i didn't mention all the losers he has
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Well, it looks like the decision will be made, or has already been made about Cracksman's participation. I hope John Gosden points out that Enable has not yet met a horse on equal terms. In the Oaks the 2nd had a problem of one sort or another, in the Irish Oaks she beat Rain Goddess who is basically not good enough, in the KG she met Ulysses over a distance too far and Highland Reel on ground he doesn't like and in the Yorkshire Oaks she met Queens Trust on ground she hates. In the Arc she will meet a number of horses where both underfoot and track conditions will be ideal for them. As it would be for Cracksman.
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will be looking for the horse most likely to finish 2nd to enable for the f/c in this race. haven't looked at any
of the runners yet. who that horse is ? don't know yet, will take a closer look the day before the race. |
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Looking at betting patterns (that are often a good indicator) it appears Cracksman will not run. I actually thought he would, but in my opinion it removes Enables strongest challenger in the Arc.
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What are we expecting ground wise for next weeks Arc ?
If it comes up soft and Aiden throws a couple in to help OOST and subsequently turns it into a slug fest then he has to be a player if ridden in a track position to attack rather than chase down the filly |
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Good morning Andrew. Cracksman is now a confirmed non-runner. Nick LUck on Sunday.
Chantilly racecourse weather. https://www.worldweatheronline.com/chantilly-weather/picardie/fr.aspx |
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I backed Cracksman at 55s on here and 33s on the books so I am pretty disappointed at not getting a run but it has been that kind of year with Cracksman so there you go. Gosden could really end up having egg on his face, or not.
I think Highland Reel is her main danger on form I'm just concerned about his price on here compared with OOSG. He was behind him and ran past him in the Arc last year and if he runs to that form Enable will have a fight on her hands. Of course she may be the filly everyone is saying she is but I have seen nothing on the racecourse to confirm that yet. Sunday will be the ideal opportunity for her to prove herself notwithstanding it isn't the greatest gathering in opposition. |
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Thanks for that.
I feel that long range forecast is very flimsy for that amount of rain to fall on sat / sun next week tbh |
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If i could totally bank on it being correct i would go all in EW on OOSG providing i knew they were going to serve up the recent St Leger type of event
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If Enable does disappoint next weekend I do hope we don't get the usual piffle about how she wasn't very good anyway.
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Only excuse for Cracksman's absence is a stable belief he can't beat Enable - they better hope she wins now. Can't help but think Dettori is behind this.
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'usual piffle' by that you probably mean anything you disagree with Figgis.
I have made no secret that I believe the horses she has beaten were either great horses or they were disadvantaged by circumstances. You may believe otherwise that is your right just as it is mine. I have also already said she is the 12f champion this season and nothing more. Her form is there for all to see and she clearly has a fabulous chance of winning the Arc. However, I don't believe anyone can say this has been a vintage year for either the three year olds or the older horses. And, contrary to belief, that is not what I want. I want champions who have earned their position and it is substantiated by the quality of horses they have beaten not foisted upon them by the press or Coolmore. I don't know if you read Willie Carson recently talking about class but he highlighted that very point very succinctly. |
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*not great horses
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But in your world if a horse with exceptional ability, through no fault of its own, is unfortunate to be racing in a season where the opposition is below par that exceptional horse will be classed as nothing special. Thankfully most racing fans aren't as limited in their thinking.
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trouble with that view brigust is that there is nothing she can do to impress you
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think this years crop not bad imo, harry angel/ winter / enable / capri how many top class group 1 horses do you expect each year
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I want champions who have earned their position
so would you not call enable a champion on her runnings this year then brigust?? you talk of what she has beaten but when considering this opinion, also consider how she has beaten these horses, with contempt imo |