Anyone know why the betting is suspended here and on the purple site?

You are probably still looking at the ante post list. That has expired so go to the race day list.

I think it is you that may be missing the point, Sandown.  You consistently use the word "failures" to describe the list of 13 horses.  They "failed" because they "didn't win", it seems.  I won't type it out again but please refer to earlier posts that more than accurately describe why these horses, despite the fact they "didn't win", hadn't actually "failed".


If they didn't win, and that can't be described as failure (to win) ,then how should it be described HM? Before the race, they could accurately be described as "potential winners" and after the race as "actual losers" irrespective of how they ran subsequently.

Favourite Enable is in stall 2, Ulysses next door in box 1
O'Brien Arc draws: Idaho (7), Winter (8), Order Of St George (9), Capri (15) and Seventh Heaven (17)
Zarak is widest of all in 18, Japanese hope Satono Diamond is in 13

If they get poor starts they could be screwed from those positions. Tactics are going to play a massive part now, pretty sure they will try and put the squeeze on those two. I'm not a backer of Enable but what I do like about her is she's a very uncomplicated and honest (big ears) filly. Surely Dettori will want to ping her out as quick as possible and get her right up near the pace now!? She is a strong stayer with gears, like the majority I think she will be hard to beat.

Pretty happy with Dschingis Secret in stall 10, the way Chantilly 12f course is configured Adrie de Vries has got options from the middle... I'm hoping he will!

Headmaster, think you should be re-named the Guru. I'm the caretaking curator mi sen

Enable is now 11/10 and Evs on some books today.
There is a moderate to heavy rain shower expected on the course tonight.
I thought Seventh Heaven was a silly price at 100s given she beat Found before she won the Arc last year and she beat Postponed on soft ground at Meydan earlier this year.

So the draw has been made but the going is still inconclusive. I am never convinced by the French going assessments. It could actually be anything !!!

Where is the pace going to come from here ?

What is team Aiden going to do with all of his runners ?

Will an irish classic placed horse ( IDAHO ) be sacrificed to ensure a true pace or does he really want one with the doubtful stayer WINTER jocked up as their possible number one ????

I have always fancied ORDER OF ST GEORGE to run big again in a race he has run well in b4,. He has a better draw here than last season and without a dearth of potential pace setters in attendance he should get a decent position from 9.

There is a real potential for this to be a messy race and early track position is likely to be the key to success or failure.

ORDER OF ST GEORGE to place at worst and to trade much shorter in the run as i feel sure he will be given a really positive ride from around 3 out and may just nick it.

Looks a decent shape of a race to have an each way poke against the front 2

I can see no way this race can be slowly run. So many want a strong pace and need a stamina test. One point is that a few strong stayers may all make for home and have a protracted battle too soon leaving the door open for fast finishers It is possible the likes of Idaho or Capri or OOSG take on Enable to soften her up. These horses are not mugs with all capable of staying further than 12f. Satono Diamond and the German horse are also all about stamina. The most famous stamina battle I remember was Grundy and Bustino where the pacemakers set up a proper battle and Bustino was a decent horse but he wasn't as good as the Derby winner getting the allowances. Grundy did prevail but only just.

Its all ok being a stayer but which ones will want to compromise their individual chance by doing the donkey work ??

Wasn't everyone saying Workforce can't win from his draw? People always say things like this.

Figgis, what do you say?

Sorry, been away a few days. Had a look in on the forum but not enough time to post. All I know about the French penetrometer (if that is what they still use) is that most of us who looked forward to its introduction all those years ago quickly found it to be useless when we saw the descriptions it led to. I don't know what the ground will be like this year at Chantilly but I know from the past that more often than not French descriptions significantly overstate how soft the ground actually is.

Sandown what will you say if she bolts up? Will it just be a poorish race or will it prove that it is possible for a filly to do this?

All Sandown has said is that Enable's chance is less than her price in his view, but still we get posts that twist this into some kind of suggestion that it's been stated as impossible.

If Gosden had missed the KG with Enable I'd have made her around an 8/13 chance here and I would've taken the evens. However, having won that race I see her as no shorter than a 7/4 chance. That still gives her a favourite's chance but she's no longer a bet. If she hadn't ran in the King George I'd say there was more chance of her winning the Arc than not. Whereas now, even though she still has a favourite's chance, there is more chance of her not winning the race than winning it. This is not because she ran in the King George in particular, I'd have felt the same if she'd taken in any other well run all age Gp1 event.

The Headmaster
Taghrooda finished 3rd, trapped wide all the way from 15 and beaten by horses drawn in 3 and 4 that had a dream run round.  Is anyone saying she didn't run right up to her best?

For me, she ran 5lbs below her best on Arc day.

Snow Fairy then ran 2 weeks later and posted an improved performance according to RPRs in the Champion.  After that she skipped off to Tokyo and won a Grade 1 in November.

Am I following this line of thinking correctly - the suggestion being these two horses were OTT on Arc Day?

I don't think there's any doubt that Snow Fairy was below her best in that Arc, as were a few others. The problem here is in referring to a horse as over the top as it implies that the horse is finished for the season. Sometimes that is the case, but often a horse will regress for a race or two then bounce back to its best later.

The effect of the draw can only be guessed at in this example. Personally I doubt it cost her more than a length at the most, about a couple of pounds on my scale. It's possible it did cost her about 2.5 lengths and I can't prove it didn't. So for argument's sake let's say she did run to form but was inconvenienced greatly by the draw. There is no way, however, I would be convinced Taghrooda ran to form in the Yorkshire Oaks, no matter how much anyone would try to argue the contrary. So she definitely regressed at York but maybe she came back to form at Longchamp. It's also possible that Enable was a bit below par last time and could be right back on song for Sunday. My argument would still remain the same. We are dealing with a horse who I can't be sure is in as good form as she was earlier in the year.

I am sorry but I have to that Taghrooda running 5lbs below her best is incorrect. In the Oaks she beat two horses who couldn't win a Group 1, in the King George she beat Telescope who couldn't win a Group 1 and Mukhadram who only managed to pinch one Group 1 while in the Arc she beat Tapestry, who beat her in the Yorkshire Oaks, by miles along with 14 other individual Group 1 winners

I am sorry, but that limited way of reading form is for the birds, in my view of course.

Disappointed by to 6.08 post which is the usual nonsense.

*effect

Lovely... you're a lot better than that Lucy Verasamy Brig! Ever thought about becoming a weatherman? These updates are great.