I hope all are well.

I think the following will be too slow to actually win: -
Order of St George
Dschingis Secret
Capri

I like Winter and Brametot as horses but I do not think that either horse will stay the trip well enough to actually win, although one or the either could well look the winner at the two furlong pole.

I just do not see how Ulysses can reverse the form with Enable and he has had a few hard races himself plus is he arguably better over 10 furlongs.

I do not think Idaho will be good enough. The Japanese horse didn't pull up any trees in the trial and the ground is unlikely to suit on Sunday.

Of the massive outsiders Seventh Heaven is of interest and worth a speculative small bet at 150/1 if she recaptures her old form as I think the track will suit her and whilst she would need Enable to underperform a few pounds at 150/1 isn't going to break the bank.

So of the rest I only see three winners of the race.

Enable - Has a fantastic chance. People claim that she will not run her race but for me she looks a horse who has physically got bigger during the season, she has shown a hardy constitution and she has thrived with her racing. I expect her to win well.

Cloth of Stars - I backed this horse for the Epsom Derby and he ran a shocker. He was too keen, he was ridden too handily and he basically didn't run his race. But lets think outside of the box. Fabre only brings over horses he really rates to run in the Epsom Derby. Secondly, the horse could be a late improving type. He has only raced 4 times this year, he won the first three races then got beaten in the Prix Foy where it looked like a racecourse gallop to me, a classic prep run, he went off 17/10 fav that day and from previous history we all know how Fabre uses that race as a genuine prep for the Arc. The horse has never had an SP higher than 8/1 (will be 25/1+ on Sunday), has won 7/12 races, has won at Chantilly, a group one winner and is trained by a guy who has a knack of getting his horses to peak for this race even when they don't have the previous form to do so. I also add that Cloth of Stars has won on heavy / soft ground and I think the horse has been brought along slowly as it should relish the 1 mile 4 furlongs trip (Sea The Stars and Shirley Heights in his breeding) and he stayed on nicely last time. I took some 40/1 with the magic sign earlier.

Zarak is interesting and you have to respect his trainer. He has very quietly been targeted at this race. He has only had one race over the last four months and been taken to the track several times, a few times for gallops and other times to just get used to the surroundings, that's how seriously they are taking it. His form is pretty strong as he ran Almanzor (for me a high quality 10 furlong horse) close on two occasions last season and he won nicely over a mile and a half last time out so he stays the trip yet also possesses a nice turn of foot given his previous form over a mile-ten furlongs. He would have to improve but he is one of the few horses in the race who is open to improvement given he only stepped up to a mile and a half last time out. Chantilly not being his favourite track is a potential negative factor but at 34.0 one I am willing to overlook.

Enable is the most likely winner but Cloth of Stars and Zarak rate as the two outsiders for me.

GL all.

Slightly off subject of the Arc to mention a horse running in the PRIX MARCEL BOUSSAC tomorrow.

There is one in there called Narella  14/1 which really impressed me on her debut at Baden Baden a few weeks ago. The step up to a mile looks to be even more in her favour the way she won her race last time. I really like her and is one to follow in her career imo.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3MkNKErHlo

The Yoshida Family  purchased this 2yo filly on the 24th September and immediately supplemented her for the Boussac. I think her chances are being underestimated than the 14/1 on offer.

The last time the Yoshida Family did this was with Danedream in 2011. She was quickly purchased at the end of September and then won the Arc in record time a week later.

He is a he and he's a racecourse commentator and main presenter of the TalkSport Race Club show. I know the one you are thinking about and I follow her on Twitter (F1)!

I said a few weeks ago that my thoughts on the Arc could change but I wasn't expecting it to be the Irish St Leger that made my mind up. I expected OOSG to win quite easily but on watching the race at the time I was still surprised just how impressive he was. I still didn't give it too much thought, assuming the rest had performed poorly, until I compared the times. If his time comparison is taken at face value then I have him improving 7lbs on his previous best, which was last year's Arc. It would be the fastest performance I've ever seen over 14f, although that's obviously because real Gp1 horses rarely run over that trip. Most horses have already done their improving by the age of 5 but there are a few that progress further into their 5yo season. As OOSG has been kept to staying races for most of his career it's not unthinkable that he could have a bit more potential running in better races. I don't know why he's regularly talked of as a soft ground horse, as his previous career best was last year's Arc where the ground was the fast side of good at worst. I'd say all ground comes alike to him. I've seen it implied that he's a bit untrustworthy but I don't see that at all. It was poorly judged rides like in this year's Gold Cup that have cost him, not his character.

I mentioned his time being taken at face value. As anyone who does time analysis will know there are some conclusions you can be more confident about than others. The Curragh can be a tricky course anyway because of the layout, and as the Irish St Leger was the longest race that day it could be misleading. The next longest races were over 10f and it's entirely possible that the ground was a bit quicker further out on the track or the wind affected the 14f race differently. If the horse concerned was an even money shot next time I'd be giving more thought to those doubts but as he's a really good price I'll happily take the race at face value until proven otherwise. If Enable is at all below her best OOSG is the one I see taking advantage and I've had a good bet on him.

I don't really subscribe to the 'bounce' theory, which I've usually understood to mean regressing after one career best fast time performance. Most of my biggest bets are specifically on horses who have done exactly what is supposed to be a red flag. It's an Americanism so maybe it applies more to dirt racing, I wouldn't know. I mean yeah I've seen it happen over here on turf but it's not what I'd call expected. It also depends how the horse ran fast of course. If it was chasing a lung busting pace, just managing to get up in the last strides, with the jockey in all out mode then I'd be more concerned about it backing up.

That is how I understood the bounce factor S. I thought the suggestion was that a horse running its fastest time was taking more out of itself than possibly thought or visually appeared.
The Irish St Leger form is pretty poor though. The 2nd and 3rd are only handicappers really and often a horse wins by a wide margin when the chasers accept the issue. Last year's Arc is a strange race and at face value, I am not sure beating Siljans Saga by hard-fought three-quarters of a length is anywhere near good enough.

Interesting about the ground. Two unkowns are what is the going today and what price will the bookies open up with for Enable tomorrow? Surely in such a big field of possibly closely matched opposition plus the bookies will surely want to get Enable what will they open up with?

The 'right' horses were involved in the finish for the Gp2 but because of the trip it's difficult to know how much the final time was affected by the pace. If I have Ice Breeze running to their previous best in a truly run race then it's possible that the ground could be what we'd regard as properly 'soft' over here. However, it probably wasn't run as fast as it could've been so I'd agree with the good to soft estimate so far, but it might take another couple of races to be absolutely sure.

Figgis you are correct - the bounce is all about a horse 'bouncing' off a number that was much bigger than it had managed previously (US handicappers commonly chart horses' runs).  Steady progression fine, but a sudden leap is often followed by a way below par effort.  The thought being the horse has experienced mental and physical exertion it hasn't had to deal with before, and without a good break it will chuck in a stinker next time out, having not recovered.  The theory has been bastardised over here to focus on horses (mainly Jumpers) that will run poorly on their second run after a break having run well on return.

As luck would have it, I've found Ragozin's book.

HM is correct in making the point about the big improvement in PB the last time.

Ragozin devoted a hwole chapter to the "bounce" but there are a few choice quotes worth repeating.

" A horse is a better candidate to bounce if he's been heavily raced (in a season)

"It's rare for horses, particularly fillies, to improve in four straight races." (Enable?)

"Don't give a horse any extra credit for having won easily, and don't believe he is less likely to bounce."

Re Chantilly ground. The last 2f times for both races were 24.91 (ice Breeze) and 23.71 ( The Juliet Rose). These times, especially the sub 24 secs do NOT happen with ground that is soft, even in slowly run races. Add that to the final times, and I can't see how it could possibly be softer than good to soft, unless the straight is considerably drier than the back straight.

On the other hand, Dettori described it as "soft."

Slightly off subject of the Arc to mention a horse running in the PRIX MARCEL BOUSSAC tomorrow.

There is one in there called Narella  14/1 which really impressed me on her debut at Baden Baden a few weeks ago. The step up to a mile looks to be even more in her favour the way she won her race last time. I really like her and is one to follow in her career imo.

Very impressive run Roz and she's by Reliable Man... he had his best day at Chantilly (Prix Du Jockey Club), 14-1 has made my mind up.

The ground looks pretty much the same as it was on trials day IMO.

Yep, I noticed the trainer as well Roz and he's in good form by the look of it. Hopefully they will both run good races tomorrow!!

She (NARELLA) is trained by Markus Klug, same trainer as Dishingis Secret who runs in the Arc - i always take note when Yoshida buys one - he only buys the best with a long term view of their careers at the Shadai Stud.

She has actually had 2 wins from 2 runs- racing post website didn't show her first run earlier on , now showing a previous win at Cologne,

===============
Funny enough I think Klug has an even better two year old filly in Rock My Love


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uO3sNCP-C_g

Furthermore there is another Klug filly Attica who returns tomorrow in a Gr.3 in Dusseldorf at 4-1 odds. If she is fully fit, she´ll win. She crushed the German Oaks winner Lacazar by 4L in the spring, who is now around 6-1 for the Opera.

i argued with sandown about the price of enable but i have had a slight u turn and after the draw was announced... i now believe her chances to be longer... a 6/4 chance would be fairer with the runners that are now also running as i didn't see winter as a runner and i didn't actually think capri would turn up

a really tricky affair

i have struggled to find a confident bet in this race i did like order of st george at 25 ante post but have missed the boat, i have him second top rated, he is an interesting runner no doubt, however his best performances have all been against mediocre opposition who are slow rather than having to run fast against faster horses...anyway i like him and he has his chance... i still have my reservations about him against quicker horses so i have to pass him over...the other thing that concerns me with him is this speed favouring track and at the track here they run far faster at this distance than other tracks imo...we will see tomorrow whether i have made an error in judgement and he goes into the race in peak condition...pace will be key for his chances

i have read on here about this being a big field and there is bound to be pace on... however i have found no confirmed speed influences in the field and i see the controlling pace coming from enable and potentially the other japanese horse...

enable is very quick from the gate in fact she is one of the fastest horses i have seen from the gate...her poor draw could be negated by being a controlling speed here and i see no reason why she won't control things or at least sit off an easy lead which round this speed favouring track will negate the poor draw she has received...she is going to be very difficult to beat if this scenario pans out and she was going to be very tough to beat anyway but if given easy fractions near the front end confirmed stayers like the german horse, capri and order of st george will not have the pace to put it up to her imo

capri a horse i have never liked. i have him forth best and think he will outrun his odds as i have him improving slowly but improving all the same and it has to be remembered his st leger win was his first run off the lay off and despite people thinking he had a hard run in the leger i actually thought he won cosily and should come forawrd for the run he is a very decent price here and he has now been able to win in a tactical irish derby and a well run st leger, the cut in the ground will suit and i see no reason why he shouldn't out run the generous odds so have had a bit on him...his chances will depend on a decent pace i'd say but he has his chance at a fair price imo

the other horse i like is the rouget colt brametot he is drawn quite close to the filly who i believe will be the controlling speed here, he ran like a drain last time like a lot of the rouget string at that time, however he is much better than that and if he did jump well from the gate a problem that has been a persistent problem with him and able to sit close to a likely moderate early pace he certainly has the speed to at least race the filly if he can sit near the speed, how he breaks is key...i have had a bit on him

winter was a tad disappointing the last day but she has looked a top class filly to me and if she could come back to her early season form she would have to go well i was just disappointed with her the last day and i have to pass her on with regret...i think she would stay

i don't like the japanese horse but 60/1 on here is generous and the trainer is no mug   

anyway a tight knit affair in which i see the filly taking a world of beating and i have also had a bit on her as just think she is much the best here she may get it very easy near the front end of the field or even on the speed...other confirmed stayers must be praying they can get some speed to run at and even if they do, she still maybe much the best, i have her a mile clear

I don't know if it rained but it is not raining now. Mostly cloudy with a little rain expected from around 7 am.

No rain overnight. Apparently, they have had only 1mm in the last 24hrs.

Cloudy now, possible rain at 11 o'clock.

Enable will win if she performs up to her normal level but how many times have we seen a British champ 3yo flop in Paris? So Enable vs the Field - I like Ulysses.

No rain at 11pm and none expected now until 5pm.