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I like My Dream Boat Uncle, I hope they run him. (Famous last words) He did beat Found last season so on best form you never know. I have been waiting for them to drop him in class a touch. He was favourite to beat Ulysses first time out this season and was given a no chance ride. He will like the ground and could surprise a few.
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It's been raining at Ascot for at least a couple of hours and expected to continue for another 30 mins.
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I don't think My Dream Boat will stay the trip. His last two races had comments of "no extra" and "drifted left" over a mile and a half so that doesn't fill me with confidence plus his breeding isn't exactly crying out for the trip. That said, it is obviously factored into his price as he won the Prince of Wales on soft ground so the carrot is dangling in front of punters.
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Enable is already 11/8
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Uncle I just had a few quid on MDB at 40s with billies and blow me down their rep has just come on ATR saying there has been a late market move for My Dream Boat cut in from 40s to 20s. Call themselves bookies?
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Weather forecasters changing their predictions like some people change their selection for a race. Now predicting rain Thu and Fri and a sunny Saturday. Doesn't look good but as they've changed their predictions every single day anything is possible.
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'Doesn't look good?' It looks great.
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I meant it doesn't look good from a racing fan's point of view. Which is something you've regularly claimed to be before a punter
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I think the MDB gamble is just about the gorund and 'shrewdies' trying to steal a place edge - there may well be less than 8 runners. I personally can't have him beating Enable, or an on form Jack Hobbs, so even at 40/1 right now it's only really 7/2 the place.
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I cannot see him winning Unc but he is already down to 20s on here and if one or two of the top ones don't run he will likely be shorter if you see what I mean Uncle?
How is it good for a racing fan's point of view watching the horses you like getting beaten because the ground is like a road? Are you saying Enable and company do not have racing fans? Or do you think races should be won by the same horses all of the time? |
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How is it good for a racing fan's point of view watching the horses you like getting beaten because the ground is like a road?
Where does this "ground is like a road" tripe come from? How often have you seen the ground like concrete at a major flat racing meeting in the current era, when the ground is far more watered than those great racing days of the seventies you talk about? Anyone who starts comparing proper good to firm ground with being like a road is an idiot and it's those types who have led to the tendency to over water. Most racing fans want to see flat racing run on at least good or good to firm ground. Good to firm ground is what is expected in most summer flat racing. Enable has already won on it, like most top class flat horses should be able to, so it wouldn't be a problem for her. What soft ground will probably lead to is a depleted field and a much worse quality one, which is fine if it suits your punting, no problem with that, but don't pretend it's the view of a racing fan. |
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Oh you mean like last year when the ground was too fast or the year before when the ground was too soft. Well this year the ground should be no worse than good and I would have thought that would be a more level playing field than the last two years where we had a 13/8f and the year before with a 1/2 favourite.
How can that possibly be bad for racing fans Figgis? |
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Now that Enable is a confirmed runner its not surprising she's been supported today, now around 11/8 and that could look a good price on Saturday afternoon with doubts surrounding several of her main rivals. I certainly wouldn't want to lay her, even at odds on and that could quite easily occur.
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Hi Lawrie, hope life is good with you
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Oh you mean like last year when the ground was too fast
It was too fast at this meeting last year? Says who? Too fast for who exactly? |
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Hi Andrew, very good thanks. I'm off on holiday at 4 o.clock just to give young Figgis a break.
![]() I thought Enable was a good bet a few weeks ago thinking Jack Hobbs would be her only danger. I never expected her to run in Ireland so when she did I put more on Jack Hobbs and got my Enable stake back in the Irish Oaks. Then, out of the blue, she was backed for this race and now I have two main bets. Cannot remember that ever happening before so I will enjoy it while it lasts. On the down side I am off to Florida and it's raining there as well but I'm sure it will be great. How are your business travels going, Any new countries to add to the list? |
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Well this year the ground should be no worse than good
Before today the ground on the round course was described as soft, good to soft in places. There's rain today, and in my post, which is the post you quoted from, I stated it's forecast rain for Thu and Fri. So in the circumstances being referred to is highly unlikely that the going will be no worse than good. |
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It's not really raining Figgis, they are scattered showers and Ascot drains brilliantly. It will be too fast for soft ground horses and too slow for fast ground horses so a level playing field.
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Well I hope you're right, brigust. Personally I want to see all the intended starters making the race. I would also like to see that happen on ground no worse than good so it's fair for everyone, both from a punting and racing fan view. Although admittedly I haven't played ante post and might well have a different view financially if I had. However, if it we do get a depleted field I think Enable can have an easier time of things so on the bright side it shouldn't damage her Arc chances too much.
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Laurie, I got back from West Java on Monday, but that was pleasure (my daughter lives there). Toronto on August 7th, but business and only for a few days.
You have a couple of decent chances running for you on Saturday, albeit more so with Enable in my opinion. I didn't back her ante-post as JG appeared to be relying on Jack Hobbs, but she obviously didn't take much out of herself in Ireland. With the WFA and receiving 14lb, she must take all the beating, even if they all run. Have a great vacation, i've never been to Florida. |
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Thank's Andrew, I will. I think you are right about Enable. I hope I get to watch the race, one way or another. We are planning to travel more as my work load diminishes.We are currently planning a US tour with one of my two my sons and his wife. I have always wanted to see The Alamo, New Orleans and Gracelands but we have a project in France to complete before that. Take care.
I haven't touched Enable for the Arc Figgis so I will have to regroup when I get back. I will also miss Goodwood but I haven't any firm predictions about the Sussex Stakes so I will not be missing too much. The one race I will be looking out for the Maurice De Geest. That looks like being a good race and I have unfinished business with Caravaggio and Limato. I will wait to see what runs and what the ground is like before I make any decisions. Anyway, I'm signing off now so try not to miss me too much Figgis, happy and lucky punting everyone. ![]() |
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I will be amazed if Highland Reels turns up. With Paddy contantly pushing him out, I think they know he aint turning up and Aiden will use the softish conditions as his reasoning
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Enable is extremely short at 5/4. Is she as good as Taghrooda? Is she as good on good to soft ground as good/good to firm?
The wfa is a massive advantage for Enable; her last run was only two weeks ago; this race is an afterthought; this race is also the most competitive she's been in. All things being equal, is she the most likely winner on form? |
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The WFA isn't a "massive advantage" for Enable. It allows her to compete on fair terms. She would be at a "massive disadvantage" if she didn't get it. I'm sick of reading such rubbish. Tom Segal is at it in today's Weekender on the subject of the Goodwood Cup: "Big Orange is a high-class horse, but he's certainly not the fastest ever trained and for him to give 13lb to a smart, improving three-year-old would be a huge ask." No, it wouldn't - it would be a fair ask: fair to Big Orange and fair to the 3yo.
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Brigust can you please put up your tip for the King George so I can lay the crap out of it.
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I think the late gatecrashing by Enable has created a lot of value for the rest of the other runners - for once with help from the bookies - if one is not backer.
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Totally p*ssed off with antepost. Backed Highland Reel short, now 5/1 and probably wont even turn up it seems! Same with Almanzor etc etc etc. Bunch of Turds!
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10 declared:
Enable Highland Reel Jack Hobbs Ullysses Idaho Benbatl Desert Encounter Sixties Song Maverick Wave My Dream Boat |
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Given that they didn't go that quick in the Listed race the final time points to the round course being no softer than the slow side of good. That's at least from a mile out anyway, could be softer further out I suppose.
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Markedly slower for the 12f handicap so does indeed seem to be softer further out and more like good to soft ground. No rail movements so that doesn't explain the difference.
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More rian tonight and tomorrow so definitely going to be softish.
Can still see HR and Ulysses being non runners. |
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O'Brien sounded convincing that HR would run whatever the ground. I'm not sure the ground was to blame when he was beaten on it as there were other possible excuses and he handled it well enough in the Hardwicke last year. Even if connections have doubts I can see why they intend to run as he's going for back to back wins and a defeat here wouldn't take away from what he's achieved. I'll be more surprised if Ulysses runs on soft. Even though again I'm not absolutely sure it would hinder him Stoute seemed to have convinced himself that was the excuse on debut. Now that the horse has finally produced what they thought he was capable of you'd think they'd want to give him every chance to keep that winning form going, and there are alternative options later.
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I honestly cannot see why Enable will be beaten... As in an group 1 race, you've got to look at form and can someone please tell me what exactlyJack Hobbs to be so short? Wait till HR is declared a non jigger then lump on... Hopefully godsend will give the Yorkshire oaks a miss and goVermeilles and arc...this could be the next treve
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Highland Reel in excellent form and 11/2 is an insult, ideal ground or not. To say Jack Hobbs ran an absolute stinker last time is a whopping understatement, lay. Enable short enough. Come on HR!
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Enable beat little in the Irish Oaks; in the Epsom Oaks Rhododendron clearly did not stay 12f despite cruising 2f out; she's also too short considering last race was just two weeks ago.
Jack Hobbs (JH) disposed off Highland Reel (HR) and Seventh Heaven (conqueror of Found the winner of last year's Arc in the Yorkshire Oaks) at Meydan after a downpour (Postponed was 3rd) in emphatic fashion; JH finished 3rd behind Almanzor and Found in the Irish Champion (10f) 1st race back from an injury, and that was Gp 1 form. Tomorrow with trip and ground to suit I'm expecting a big run from JH. Would have been HR for me but for the ground. |
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Little e/w on Benbatl just to give me an interest in the race.
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I've checked two weather forecasts and both only show 2-3mm between now and the race.
AOB does tend to run his once they have traveled and although Highland Reel's form is n't as good on ground officially described as worse than good he's run plenty of times on it. Tend to agree with Figgis - he's likely off to stud at the end of the year and they have nothing to lose. I hope Ulysses runs - his pedigree suggests a test of stamina should be right up his street - I know there's a a school of thought that he's such a strong traveler that he could even drop to a mile but I can't dismiss him as a 12f horse yet, to me he just looks like a very talented animal who has taken time to channel his ability successfully. I think Enable will win but I'm not so keen on the price now (2/1 is probably wishful thinking) so I'll back Ulysses each way. |
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Benbatl 20s ap top up @ 25s
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Idaho for me to handle the ground better than his brother,has a much different action.Had a saver each way on Benbatl at 20/1,was never put in the race in the Derby,nursed down the hill then stayed on up the rising ground.May well be better with ease in ground.
Both are just a little short on class but the going could be the leveller. |
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Forecast to rain from 2pm onwards. Jack Hobbs the only horse with the potential to beat Enable imho.
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