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King George VI (29th July)
King George VI (29th July)
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Good luck with that one. What about the horses at the rear?
it's quite normal for pacemakers to be well clear 2f from the finish - happens all the time |
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Ooooh. Touchy.
 That is not an answer A_T. He was leading the field turning in then suddenly kicked at least 4 lengths clear. It is blindingly obvious he had not been going a fast pace to be able to do that. And if a lower class horse is not going a fast pace then the top class horses are certainly not going a fast pace. If you understand 'class'. |
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Johnnyrant, if money talks, and it usually does in this game, it does look that way. Not all books have put her back in the betting but those that have have put her in short. I'm surprised she's running here after they aimed her at the Curragh. I thought it would be either one race or the other, not both. They must think she's come out of it very well.
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OMG I cannot believe it. JG must have read my points.
I thought my money was lost and I backed her to win in Ireland to cover my stake. I have various prices from 19s down to 8s on here and 8s and 6s on the books. I would win more if JH runs but I think she may beat him with her weight concession. Will I go on holiday with two bullets at the trophy? |
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I missed the big prices. D amn.
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Although looking at the market she's only been matched for £45 at that price. Somebody certainly seems keen as it's doubtful she'd be much shorter nearer the time so could just be some loon backer.
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On Oddschecker she 7/4 and 2/1. Cannot be just a rumour, surely?
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one thing i would say in regards to chantilly that day is it payed to be prominent and the rail rode golden imo so if you were wide you had no chance in any race to my memory...feel free to pull me up but imo the track was speed friendly that day and the rail was a golden highway moore knew this and rode the winner accordingly
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Brigg / Figg - give it a rest.
Enable now a possible so all arguments about Jack Hobbs are probably off anyway. |
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Connections of dual Oaks winner Enable are planning to leave her in the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Monday's confirmation stage.
The Ascot Group One, which is run on Saturday, had initially been ruled an unlikely option for the John Gosden-trained filly after she completed her Classic double at the Curragh earlier this month. The Darley Yorkshire Oaks at York on August 24 had been nominated as a possible target, but Teddy Grimthorpe, racing manager to owner Khalid Abdullah, reports she will stand her ground at the five-day stage, although her participation is still far from certain. He said: "Enable will be left in the King George on Monday, so she will still have the option (of running). "I'm not saying we are definitely going to think about running, but John is keen to see how she is in the early part of the week. In theory, she could do both (Ascot and York)." |
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Harry, I've read before about the rail bias but Wuheida and Speedy Boarding both won away from the rail and nothing they've done since would suggest they were any better than the form they showed that day. It's not that unusual for a few of the supporting races on any Arc card to be run at a moderate early tempo, as it's often the style of racing over there, so prominent runners can be favoured when that happens. As for the Arc itself, even when there's a good pace, in most runnings the winner comes from no further than mid division at worst. The horses with superior speed are generally able to gain the best early positions and that's usually something most jockeys will try to achieve unless hindered by the draw, being wary of leaving themselves open to trouble in running that often happens in this race.
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Personally I hope Enable doesn't run. It might compromise her Arc chances and while I'd be more confident of her winning this race than any of the other runners I think there may be more value in the race if she doesn't run.
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yeah i thought the prix de lopera was a strange race figgis tbh but it still payed to be on the speed and the first 2 home were favoured with the winner having to work considerably hard to get by pleascach on the rail, this of course could of been to the easy fractions she had on the front end but she rode the rail up the straight...ryan moore if you watch the arc again he is intent on getting found to the rail and when he angles out in the straight to take the lead he takes her straight back to the rail...imo if you were out wide that day at chantilly you were compromised...agree with your last sentence about jockeys
in other races that day it payed to be prominent or near the speed enough for me to say the track rode speed friendly, like you say though this could of been down to pace but i am still in the camp that says on that ground there is a bias to the rail and a bias to speed on the front...even the rag held on for second in the foret and apart from the sprint which i will leave out no deep run closer came from the rear on the whole card |
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Fair enough harry.
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i know she is by nathaniel but how confident would you be with enable on soft figgis? if they ran her that is
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very tricky affair this if the ground stayed soft imo
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I don't know for sure harry but I'd still back her. Rightly or wrongly I came to the opinion years ago that soft ground generally doesn't have as adverse an effect on runners over 10-12f as it does with sprinters and milers. I reached the opinion after declining to back runners due to the ground only to watch then win anyway. I decided that, even though I might save myself the odd loss by refusing a bet, in the long run it was more profitable to play them anyway, plus it saves a lot of headwork. I'd think again when it's a runner played for a late turn of foot but those type of runners are rare over 12f. Obviously really heavy ground is a different scenario and I'm reluctant to play on such ground unless the horse is a proven soft ground performer.
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fair enough her pedigree says she will love it but i guess you never know and she has looked top class winning on better ground...shame the race hasn't attracted many foreign runners
i have to say i came close to having a dabble on her for the arc but if she is to take in this race and the yorkshire oaks i will have to think again...i think she is better than his hamdan filly that won this but she was over the top after taking in this race and then the arc it's hard but maybe she may not need a hard race here to win, i'd have her odds on if she ran here personally |
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Agree harry, I rated her Oaks win the best I've ever rated in that race in over 30 years, so I share your high opinion of her.
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i tend to not go back that far figgis but i rated her at least as good as light shift who i thought was exceptional on the day in the oaks... she looks to have far more improvement in her than that filly though and she certainly looks very special...i would like to play her at a price for the arc tbh but it's a tough ask to keep her at her peak for the arc although she won't be running against treve
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how far clear of light shift did you have her figgis out of interest?
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Jack Hobbs disappointed when finishing last of eight in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot last month but Gosden feels ease in conditions on Saturday will prove much more favourable for the Godolphin-owned five-year-old.
Gosden said: “Jack Hobbs will also be left in and the ground is looking like it will be on the easy side which will suit him better than at Royal Ascot where it was riding very fast.” Thank goodness. Could be a very good race. |
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Enable does look smart but her form at the moment isn't great. She was beaten at Newbury by Shutter Speed and Raheen House who are OK but not superstars as yet, she beat Alluringly at Chester who has only won a maiden, Rhodedendrum at Epsom who either never stayed or has a physical problem and Rain Goddess who has also only won a maiden. She will need more at Ascot that's for sure.
Possibly the best Oaks winner I saw in the flesh was Mysterious in 1973. She ran once as a 2 year old winning a Gr3 at Newmarket first time out. First time out as a 3 year old she won the Fred Darling then won the 1000 Gns easily beating the brilliant Jacinth. She then won the Oaks easily but lost her unbeaten record in the Irish Oaks beaten by Dahlia, who went on to win loads of Group 1 races, which turned out to be no disgrace. Dahlia was probably the best King George winner I saw. After winning the Irish Oaks, a week later she went to the King George where she won easily by 6 lengths beating Rheingold who went on to win the Arc beating Allez France who won the Arc the following year. The KG of 1973 was filled with Gr1 winners. Rheingold won the Grand Prix de Paris twice and The Arc. Weavers Hall had just won the Irish Derby, Scottish Rifle had just won the Eclipse, Roberto had just broken the course record at Epsom winning the Coronation Cup, Parnell had been beaten into 2nd by Brigadier Gerard in the race the previous year and was voted best middle distance horse of the year by Timeform, Hard to Beat had won the French Derby and other top class winners included Card King and Our Mirage. |
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Harry, I have her Oaks win 9lbs ahead of Light Shift. I had Light Shift as an up to scratch winner on the clock but reckon the slow ground that day exaggerated how good she looked. I saw something from the Racing Post online saying that Enable would need to improve to win an average Arc. It's all about opinions, etc, but in my opinion that opinion is rubbish. Form ratings are often behind the curve. If she did win the Arc they'd have her as improved, whether she really had or not. I don't believe she necessarily needs to improve. The opinion that Rhododendron didn't stay or ran with a physical problem is based on no evidence. Unfavourable comparisons were made with Treve and Danedream. In my view there were reasons to doubt their Arc form was quite as good as it looked but even if taken at face value both of those fillies were 5 lengths better than the opposition. Enable doesn't have to win so impressively, even a short head would be enough.
I won't pretend that speed figures are infallible, often you have to make an educated guess but there are times when you can be almost 100% confident and the Epsom card this year was such a case. If she can repeat that form in October it will take a seriously good older horse to beat her and I've not seen one around. |
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Ground likely to be on the slow side of good - looking at weather forecast not that much rain forecast to hit Ascot between now and post time but cooler temperatures this week and mainly overcast. As a Nathaniel filly I don't think Enable will mind any cut in the ground. Ironically, now it looks like she has been given the green light for the race, I think her main competition will likely come from Jack Hobbs (assuming ground on slow side).
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Oaks: Held up in 4th, 4th straight, closed to join leaders over 2f out, soon went clear with winner, ridden over 1f out, no extra and unable to go with winner entering final furlong, outstayed by winner but kept on for clear 2nd (op 4/5 tchd 5/6)
Next run: Waited with behind leading group, rider looked down 4f out and eased her back through field, pulled up soon after It is all about opinions of course. |
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Quite obviously Enable outstayed Rhododendron, just as any winner outstays any second horse that it's going away from at the finish. Horses are not quickening in the latter stages of a race, they're slowing down, but the one going away is slowing down less than the other. If Enable had not run in the race those RP comments wouldn't be saying that Rhododendron annihilated the opposition despite not really staying. Staying is relative.
If we're to believe that Rhododendron ran in the Oaks with a physical problem we have to believe that Coolmore turned her out again only 16 days later despite this. The fact is she was reported to have bled last time, she didn't bleed in the Oaks. |
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Figgis are you telling me that horses do not fail to stay? That horses do not get the trip? You don't know for sure that the reason Rhodedendron was beaten was because of stamina and neither do I. Every horse stays, that is why our racecourses are not littered with horses who failed to stay. But the question is at what level is their stamina tested? Limato ran in the Lockinge and was beaten 2 lengths in 4th and Candy says he doesn't stay a mile so he dropped him back to 6 and 7 furlongs.
Similarly with horses having problems. They are horses and cannot tell you. Rhodedendron may have had a problem in the Oaks where she didn't want to go through the pain barrier. The next time she ran she had a problem. She cannot tell us and the evidence may not be there for the trainer to know. It is not black or white. Opinions differ. I remember Detroit City a Champion Hurdler with Philip Hobbs. He was a top class hurdler who appeared to fall out of love with the game and looked like he refused to go through with it at the business end. After two inexplicably poor runs where he should clearly have done better some on here called him horrible names, dog etc. In his next run he died of a heart attack approaching the 2nd hurdle. Had they known he was possibly in pain with his heart when he was put under pressure, which was probably the reason for those poor runs, they would have retired him but they didn't and he couldn't tell them. On a happier note JG has just been on and whether they run Enable will be decided on Wednesday morning though he sounded positive. The reason he gave for Jack Hobbs not performing last time was because it was the hottest day in June at 30+ degrees and the ground was lightning quick. Everything he didn't want. He thinks he is good at 10f and has form to back it up but it looks like the trip and conditions on Saturday will be ideal. |
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Figgis are you telling me that horses do not fail to stay?
If you can find where I said that please show me. Otherwise don't bother writing utter ****. You don't know for sure that the reason Rhodedendron was beaten was because of stamina and neither do I I never said I did. What I said was the opinion that Rhododendron did not stay was based on no evidence and that still stands. The rest of your post is pointless. |
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I what I write is pointless Figgis. If you don't like it, do one!
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That reply makes a refreshing change. I was expecting more "boo hoo, I'm entitled to my opinion" pathetic victim playing
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No. I thought I worried copy your example from yesterday. But it is just my opinion. When I am wrong you will know. It doesn't bother me. But just because your opinion differs from mine does not make me or you wrong. That is something you singularly fail to grasp. So can I suggest you don't have to comment on any of my posts. You can seethe in silence if you wish. See if I care.
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*would
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But just because your opinion differs from mine does not make me or you wrong. That is something you singularly fail to grasp
Looking through the posts, harry directly asked me a question. I answered him that Enable gave the best Oaks performance I've rated. Which is not the same as saying the best winner of an Oaks. I said the best Oaks performance. They are my own personal ratings, I don't expect everyone to agree with me. You came in with a contradictory post that she has a lot to prove, which you're entitled to do. This was based on selective form reading such as the second horse at the Curragh has only won a maiden, ignoring that she had just finished second in a Gp1. You posted "Rhodedendrum at Epsom who either never stayed or has a physical problem" as a statement of fact rather than an opinion. I merely replied that this was an opinion based on no real evidence. I never said it was an opinion nobody should be entitled to. This is your modus operandi. You contradict other people's viewpoint, which you are entitled to do. However, when your contradictory opinions are disagreed with or you are asked for some substance to back up what you've stated you reply that you're entitled to your opinions and they should not be questioned. So in effect what you're saying is you can contradict someone else's view but yours should be the last word. My opinion is that is hypocritical |
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Interesting race. I am absolutely kicking myself as I always thought Enable would end up running here as in reality, it looked a weak King George with a Doctor Dino type (although a pacesetter as opposed to a closer) in Highland Reel being 11/8 favourite a week back! They have obviously thought that it won't take much winning (not a Sea The Stars 3 yr old or Dylan Thomas older horse type in the race) so all being well will let her take her chance.
If it is soft ground then maybe we will see the real Jack Hobbs. Other posters made fair points about him only having run over 10 furlongs at Ascot, another two furlongs and soft ground could be just what he needs. Enable will be favourite, and rightly so, and she has Jack Hobbs to beat in my opinion. I can't have anything else in the race. Highland Reel won't have the fast ground he needs and you would think connections of Enable would enter a pacemaker to ensure there isn't a silly stop/start pace to the race. |
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You flatter yourself Figgis. I was following on from my earlier post with regard to Enable and suggesting the chance of Jack Hobbs may not be fruitful. Get over yourself for goodness sake or start a thread called 'Figgis' if you want views to be only for and from you.
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*fruitless
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I couldn't agree more Swagger. Let us hope they both turn up, the ground is good and we get a proper race.
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Swagger, I can certainly see why they're tempted but I'm surprised they ran her at the Curragh if this was still under consideration. If they do run her I can see her winning convincingly but that doesn't necessarily mean having an easy race. If there is a pacemaker, like you say there could be, then even if she wins well she'll have had a taxing race. Dettori could try to hold on to her for a late run and win as snugly as he can but that might be difficult in a race run on possibly slow ground and a fast pace, as the race is likely to open up earlier rather than later in those circumstances. For me, it's a bit of a gamble that she might leave her best form behind after this race if they're really intent on giving her the best chance of winning an Arc.
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You flatter yourself Figgis. I was following on from my earlier post with regard to Enable and suggesting the chance of Jack Hobbs may not be fruitful. Get over yourself for goodness sake or start a thread called 'Figgis' if you want views to be only for and from you.
Right. So you rambling on about the best Oaks winner you've seen had nothing to do with the posts between me and harry, which had been posted just before and there had been no other mention of best Oaks winners prior to that. Ok |