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Jack Hobbs has run 4 times at 12f winning 3 easily and finishing 2nd in the Derby to Golden Horn
Right so it's now okay to use a Gp3 race as a guide where he beat a 66/1 shot who has only won a fillies maiden race and a 14f handicap. Fair enough, let's see some consistency in that approach when judging other horses you don't fancy. On the other hand Highland Reel has run 11 times over 12f and has been beaten 6 times Or put another way he's won 5 times out of 11 and on two of those occasions he didn't make all the running. Three of JH's 12f performances were as a 3yo. What is your opinion on the reason for the wfa scale? |
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Discount what you like it is still not enough to form a reliable opinion. No-one knows how far he could have won the Irish Derby or Sheema Classic had there been other horses to take him on or had they been run at Ascot.
Similarly, I have just watched last years King George where they crawled, quickened, crawled quickened. Even then HR had to be hit 7 times to beat Wings of Desire. Should I discount that race and the Breeders Cup race where they were not truly run? I won't bother. I don't bet in handicaps and I don't do ratings. The wfa scale, for the older horses (3 and up) has been tweaked here and there but I cannot think of a bet I have had where the wfa cost me. So it does not bother me and I live with it. I may feel differently if Enable beats Jack Hobbs in a photo. |
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I'm not talking about whether the wfa scale cost you a win. I mean the premise for why the wfa scale was devised, do you agree with it?
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i don't get you're angle in regards highland reel at 1m4f brigust... for me he has just kept stepping up and now is a very solid 12f horse...when he was younger he would be rank with the rider which lead people to believe he was a 10f horse but now he is a solid 12f group 1 horse as he has learnt to settle, you couldn't of ridden him with restraint in the past and i actually thought he needed to get it easy on the easy the lead in order to win but he has now become a man and he looks better than ever this season and is tough, it is a shame for him the ground probably won't ride fast but i'd be very disappointed if he were out the frame
he took an age to pick up in the prince of wales and that was down to the fact he has become a solid horse at 12f now, which wasn't the case before...like i say though, he is a far better animal when the ground is on top but still expect him to perform respectively here and he is solid |
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Of course it depends on who turns up HC, but I certainly wouldn't be surprised if he is well beaten. I believe he is not a strong 12f horse at this level and that is one theory I expect to be put to the test on Saturday.
The wfa scale does not bother me. What does is when I read about the rating this horse or that horse has been given for winning a race top class race. I am of the opinion you cannot rate 'class'. The Irish handicapper continually tried to with Arkle and failed. Timeform and the BHA tried to with Frankel and failed miserably. Trainers and jockeys often refer to horses as being 'top class' or having a 'touch of class' because they are different from handicappers. |
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The wfa scale does not bother me. What does is when I read about the rating this horse or that horse has been given for winning a race top class race
As I have tried to say, I'm not talking about specific ratings or whether the scale is accurate or not. I'm talking about the reason why it exists. The whole reason why 3yos receive weight from their elders. |
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Figgis, I am just completing my 8th book, tomorrow afternoon I am leaving with my wife, son and daughter in law and four of my grandchildren for a three week break in Orlando. Later in the year and some of next year I will be attempting to finish off the house we are building in France before planning a drive around the US with my other son and his wife. Do you really think I have time to think about Admiral Rous?
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Didn't think it was such a difficult question to answer whether you agree with the theory or not, a simple yes or no would have sufficed but I suppose I should've known better
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I have given it zero thought so I guess it will either be a yes or a no. You possibly have too much time on your hands.
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More good news before I go away. Cracksman is running in the Great Voltigeur and not the St Leger. JG has five others for the St Leger. I thought that would be a good move and that is what he is doing. Let's hope we get more luck than we did in the Derby and the Irish Derby.
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So you can post about half a dozen posts this morning. One a few paragraphs long containing your 'theories'. You can post 4 replies that evade the question elaborating your reasons why it doesn't matter. Yet you didn't have time to say yes or no to whether you agree with one of the most fundamental theories of flat racing and why the races are framed the way they are. Yep, makes sense
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I don't know if you understand the concept but I try not to waste my time on things I cannot change. Having discussions on here sometimes while I am sat at the computer is a break, clears my head and it's about something .
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(sorry) it's about something I enjoy.
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I don't know if you understand the concept but I try not to waste my time on things I cannot change
Who said anything about changing it? I don't know if I can make this any simpler but I am not talking about the specific scale itself or the specific allowances or whether it's accurate or fair or whether you'd change it, etc, etc. I am simply asking if you agree with the basic theory of why 3yos receive weight from older horses? |
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I suppose the fact that Brigadier Gerard had to give 11lb to Roberto in the Benson & Hedges (Juddmonte International) at York instead of the 8lb he would give him today, added to the fact that had Joe Mercer persevered with him the distance between them would have been nearer a length, meant the Brigadier would have remained unbeaten then I guess the wfa system has had a major effect on my horse racing life but I cannot do anything about it and waste no time thinking about the rights and wrongs.
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I try not to waste my time on things I cannot change.
And your constant carping about those fiendish Coolmore people strongly suggests otherwise ![]() |
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I suppose the fact that Brigadier Gerard had to give 11lb to Roberto in the Benson & Hedges (Juddmonte International) at York instead of the 8lb he would give him today
I am not talking about the specific scale itself or the specific allowances |
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Coolmore is something I do have an opinion about, it involves everyone and is a good discussion point and anyone can profer an opinion. You never know who reads these threads. The wfa scale is not a discussion point, thanks.
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Coolmore is something I do have an opinion about
But what can you do about it? Which was the point you have just made. You've been moaning about them since I can remember on here yet you've said things have become worse, so your moaning hasn't changed anything. The wfa scale is not a discussion point Well the scale is certainly not the discussion point I'm making. I said the reason for it. I'm now actually beginning to think you really don't know why it exists. |
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I am not moaning I am just pointing out how damaging Coolmore is to the sport of my choice.
Now I am confused. You just wrote 'I'm now actually beginning to think' followed by 'you really don't know why it exists'. Which of those two statements is true? I know the answer. I wonder if you do? |
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You don't know why it exists
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I'm astounded Jack Hobbs (JH) is 2x the price of High Reel (HR) despite the ground presently is soft with more rain between now and including saturday. I believe HR had never won a Gp 1 race on soft going; HR was comprehensively beaten by JH at Meydan on similar ground.
Should Gosden not run Enable JH could be installed fav for the race, and rightly so given the uncertainty concerning the participation on Ulysses if the ground deteriorates further and the "effectiveness" of HR on it. |
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WEIGHT-FOR-AGE
Weight-for-Age (WFA) is a weight allowance to compensate a horse for lack of physical maturity. In practice, the WFA table describes a sliding scale of weight allowances that younger horses receive from older ones, based on the principle that, on average, Flat horses become fully mature at around the beginning of the turf season as 4 year olds, and that young Jumpers are the equal of their older counterparts as hurdlers towards the end of their 4 year old year and, as steeplechasers, approximately one year later. Younger animals are considered to be more disadvantaged in races over longer distances and the sliding scale reflects this. For example, a 3 year old is presumed to be the equal of his elders over 5 furlongs by November. However, a 3 year old running over a mile on the same day would receive an allowance. Similar distance-based factors are included in the Jump scale. The WFA scale is designed to reflect the physical development of the average horse. When a Flat horse is described as having ‘failed to train on’ from two to three, it may be the case that the horse was precocious and had less than average scope for physical development at the end of its 2yo season. It will therefore have regressed relative to its peers. Conversely other horses may improve by more than the scale suggests. In handicap races with different age groups, the Handicapper deducts the WFA allowance from the weight carried by any horse that receives it. Each racing nation sets it own WFA scale. The international protocol is that Handicappers normally use the scale in operation in the country where the race was run. 14 This is not necessarily the case with regards to Irish Jump races because their scale is significantly out of line with Britain’s. The policy in all cases is set by the Head of Handicapping. As the breed develops, it is possible that the WFA scale may require further adjustment from time-to-time. The Jumping WFA scale has been amended twice in the last 12 years and the Handicappers are satisfied that it is currently working well. |
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So therefore you understand that there are two fundamental principles behind the reason for developing the scale, with one factor outweighing the other. It's the same question. Do you agree with the theory?
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Figgis I have no idea how the Magic Body Control on the new car works but what I do know is it cost a small fortune. The brochure says it adjusts the suspension to cope with potholes. That's all I need to know, thanks.
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I see now why you always hold an older horse's form down by what it achieved as a 3yo.
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You need to get out more F. We are here for a good time not a long time. You really don't want to be on your death bed thinking about the wfa scale. Get a life mate.
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Now I really have to pull this work together so that I can give it to the proof reader before I go away. Otherwise, he will be giving me grief when I get back. Will say goodbye tomorrow.
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You really don't want to be on your death bed thinking about the wfa scale
And still he fails to grasp it ![]() Get a life mate This advice could be considered wise from someone out there living the dream. Never seems to carry much weight though coming from someone who are themselves spending their time squabbling on an internet forum ![]() |
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Going currently described as soft, good to soft in places on the round course. Rain forecast tomorrow so it depends on how much they get. Supposedly dry Thu and Fri with showers on Saturday but even if that's true I don't think it will make much difference if the ground has dried out by Friday. Depending on what happens tomorrow it's still possible we could have good ground Fri and Sat.
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I cannot think of a bet I have had where the wfa cost me. So it does not bother me and I live with it. I may feel differently if Enable beats Jack Hobbs in a photo
Why would you feel differently? Everyone knows beforehand what weight a horse carries and should factor that into their betting. |
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It's been reported the connections of Highland Reel (HR) and Ulysses (U) are watching the weather closely as neither would want a deterioration of the present soft ground condition - the forecast is unsettled. Will Enable be declared? If so, would she run if the ground deteriorates further? The (possible) absence of HR and U may persuade connections she runs, I'd hope.
It is a possibility that 1/2 the present field could defect come race day if Ascot gets more rain. |
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A lot will likely hinge on how much rain hits the track tomorrow. Latest met office: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcps2xe58#?date=2017-07-26
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Do you agree with the Duckworth Lewis system?
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Benbatl 20/1 each way
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It's been a long night, but worthwhile. A_T it was a light hearted comment. When your horse gets beaten any excuse is a good excuse. If Jack Hobbs gets beaten I will blame Figgis. If he hadn't spent all this time saying what a great chance it had I wouldn't have backed it.
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Enable and Jack Hobbs both run on Saturday. Bring it on!
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Enable was on Wednesday given the green light to run in the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot on Saturday but John Gosden, trainer of the dual Oaks winner, says his perceived second string Jack Hobbs should not be underestimated.
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I don't think Highland Reel, Ulysses or Idaho will even run due to the likely ground.
It is still an interesting race as I can see it now being a very small field. I hope it's soft ground and I hope they front run on Jack Hobbs to make full use of his stride and staying ability - that would make it a real race against the most likely winner Enable. Otherwise it will just turn into a procession for her, which it might do any way. But if Jack Hobbs front runs on soft ground then I think it could get interesting. That isn't based on speed figures, data or any jazz like that, just the good fashioned eye test - I think Jack Hobbs could be seen at his best front running with some cut in the ground. Most annoying that betfair do not have an antepost place market as I want to back Algometer in this regard. |
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I think Enable will like soft ground so it's hard to see her being beaten with the wfa.
Jack Hobbs e/w @ 5/1 right now with 3 places is a bet to nothing if the other market leaders drop out (though I expect Idaho will run whatever the weather- they have nothing to lose) but I was also thinking of a place or e/w bet on My Dream Boat @ 50/1. |