I think if Enable runs on Saturday she will have an outstanding chance and I have backed her accordingly at some great prices but her form is not unbelievable and I was simply pointing that out.

What on earth are you on?
The truth is you contradict my posts continually. Then copy and paste lines to suit your point. Get over it. Move on ffs. If you don't want anyone to read or comment on your posts just say so. This is a forum ffs. To think everything I write has some sort of bearing on you is narcissism of the first order. This is supposed to a group of punters discussing forthcoming races. Putting forward their views, their bets and reasons and discussing individual points. No-one knows the answers until after the event that is the beauty of it. We lose some we win some. It is not an exam where you go around insulting others views and trying to downgrade the rest.

If you don't want anyone to read or comment on your posts just say so

I'm not the one bleating about anyone disagreeing with my posts. That's you.

I've said I reckon Enable produced the best winning Oaks performance in more than 30 years but when put into context that's not really as bold a statement as it may seem. Possibly some Oaks winners were past their best by October but the truth is most of the winners just haven't been good enough to win an Arc. Ouija Board was one of only three winning ante post bets I've had in the race in 15 years and by far my favourite winner of the race, but I have Enable 7lbs higher than her winning performance. Even though I think Enable is the most likely winner if running there is a danger of her price becoming only little value. I'm sure she's a better filly than Taghrooda was but I'm also sure the horses I consider her main threats, Highland Reel and Ulysses, are better horses than Telescope. Regrettably I backed Telescope that day as I'd underrated Taghrooda going into the race.

If Ulysses can repeat his Eclipse form over 12f, and personally I think he can at least go close to it, then I'd have him only 3lbs behind Enable at the weights, with Highland Reel a further pound behind. The question is even if Ulysses has the stamina for 12f will he be able to do it on soft ground? Stoute is on record as saying the ground was too soft for him on debut, so I thought he might not run him in those circumstances but at the moment he seems to be running anyway. I'm not convinced by Stoute's excuse on debut as Ulysses didn't seem to have any problem when winning his maiden impressively on similar ground. He's by Galileo out of Light Shift, both horses who handled cut in the ground extremely well so if that counts for anything it shouldn't be an issue. As for Highland Reel, I think he should run very close to Ulysses on his best form. Doubts have also been raised about his ability to handle cut but while I'm not saying that's wrong I'm not absolutely convinced yet. More of a concern for me would be the two hard races he's just had. He's proved a very tough horse so far but all horses have a limit and it wouldn't be a total surprise if he runs a bit below his best. I don't rate Jack Hobbs in the same class as an older horse but I'll accept it if I'm proved wrong about that.

So on my figures Enable has enough in hand to achieve a convincing win and there are some doubts about what I see as her chief rivals, but 3lbs only converts to about 1 and a half lengths on my scale over this trip so it's not something to get too carried away by. We've had the odd slowly run King George before, and 1 1/2 lengths can easily be negated by a disadvantaged position/trouble in running. At current prices I'd still back her on the day, hopefully she might drift out again, but if shortening much more I think any value would only be minimal. Even if winning, if either Ulysses or Highland Reel run to form I also think she'll probably have a taxing race.

Sounds good F and though I disagree with the placed horses I expect Enable to prevail. Maverick Wave will make it a strong pace accompanied by Permian for the first mile followed by Highland Reel, because he lies handy and because he may try his usual mid race sprint, and Idaho who cannot be ridden for a finish. Behind these will be Jack Hobbs and Enable. Just before the home straight I guess Highland Reel would have made his break for home but and Jack Hobbs will be right behind him. Enable will go to the front approaching the home turn followed by Highland Reel, Idaho and Jack Hobbs in any order. Ulysses will be trying to get close and Permian will be beaten off. Highland Reel will drop away half way up the home straight and could be beaten by Idaho and Ulysses but Jack Hobbs and Enable will pull clear and finish first and second probably in that order. Hopefully in the other order. (Attention dual forecast backers).
Ulysses will sit behind this main group but will never be able to get in a serious challenge. If patiently ridden he may be able to run past the weakening Highland Reel.

From a punting perspective I'm still hoping Enable doesn't run. I'd have more confidence backing her than any other runner but even a hefty wager doesn't light my fire at this price in this instance and there will be other days for her. I would prefer to be backing Ulysses who, even though I have niggling doubts about him, I see as a far better value bet in the event of Enable not running.

Of the worries that have one is Coolmore jumping Idaho off in the lead then dropping the anchor.

Buick is already jocked up on Jack Hobbs so I guess that puts Frontiersman out of the picture? Crowley on Ulysses and Frankie on Enable.

Does the Arc still even carry the prestige it used to?

I've argued in the past that even though the Arc is favourably looked upon compared to the KG these days the winning performance often hasn't been better. Sure, there have been some great horses that won but the race comes at the end of the season, sometimes on soft ground, when many horses have had busy or hard campaigns in Britain and Ireland and are already past their best and/or unsuited to conditions. Also a few have been run at a less than satisfactory pace and trouble in running has occurred more often than in the KG. That said, looking at the list of recent winners I'd say it carries as much prestige as it ever has and UK/Ire runners look to have been better targeted at the race.

The Arc is still the race. It´s the KG that has really suffered in recent years. Compare the last 3-4 runnings to previous years. It is not pretty, cause GB&IRE breeders don´t care about middle-distance races anymore. The French and Japanese stick to the Arc and the Germans only come with their elite talent, which they only produce sporadically.

only been following the arc, since treve was winning it easily, don't really know much about the king George, no doubt the arc
has most of the top middle distance horses from all over the world and has the most prestige. would of preferred enable going
for an easier target before a tilt at the arc, sounds like enable is a banker for this race, judging by peoples views on the race,
has the makings of a vintage renewal this year. goodluck, will be watching with interest

The wfa is the biggest factor surely- it amuses me that they've adjusted it so that whereas Taghrooda got 15lbs from the older colts, Enable now gets only 14lbs - I assume that adjustment was data driven but it's surely unlikely to make any material difference. Everything looks in Enable's favour to me (assuming she shows up!) - if the ground is on the softer side the weight allowance becomes even more of a factor plus she's more likely to still be improving than the older horses.

I would n't be using Shutter Speed's run in France to knock her form either, Gosden has dropped plenty of hints that events conspired against her that day (whilst being careful not to mention her jockey's inability to give her full assistance).

No, of course not, but from memory Taghrooda won by 3 lengths +?

I just think the wfa scale generally favours the 3yos (the really good ones anyway!) - I've no evidence to prove that and I'm sure the change was data driven as I say.But how much data is there in terms of 3yos taking on their elders in Group Ones over 12 furlongs?

I just think the wfa scale generally favours the 3yos (the really good ones anyway!)

I agree.

Apart from HR and Idaho one other AOB's charge that could play a significant role in this race would be Seventh Heaven but she's injured; Capri was gifted the Irish Derby courtesy of the imprudence of the other jocks - the Voltigeur will testify to that, I firmly believe, if he runs there. And as far as the 3 yr old colts are concerned they are much of a muchness.

Oddschecker: Enable 2/1, HR 5/2, J Hobbs 6/1, Idaho 13/2, Ulysses 8/1.

It will also be interesting to see what the ground is like on Friday. Supposed to be dry tomorrow, some rain Wed and Thu but dry the rest of the week. The ground is currently described as soft but that could easily change at this time of year. In the last 5 years the ground has been described as good to soft twice on KG day, yet on both occasions the ground was certainly no worse than good.

really struggled to rate jack hobbs personally i've got his dubai run very inclusive ratings wise and have struggled to handicap him properly. i have also struggled with last years champion stakes where inflated ratings were rewarded to all runners but were in my opinion way above what they should of been...

i have to say i have jack hobbs pegged at a very low level group 1 wise and really he is a disappointing type considering the potential he showed as a 3 year old but for me he never really improved much from the dante, i know the ratings say he has but for me he isn't much better than that

if this race were to be run on fast ground i certainly think highland reel would race the filly but the ground how it is rates his chances far less, i realise the soft ground will favour jack hobbs but have a feeling he will fail to please those that rate him so high

have a feeling this years addition of the hardwicke stakes was a lot poorer than in recent times and although the winner did well to win especially the way he played up beforehand, his price however makes little appeal but he may improve on what he has shown so far in his career, he certainly never ducked the issue in the hardwiche

i have struggled with ulysees as a horse...he has taken an age to learn to settle in his races but he looks to finally be learning how to drop the bit...the eclipse was a poor edition in my book however and was run at a horrible stop start gallop and i actually fancied the third a tad before the race, this shows what i thought of the horses running that day... anyway he was a game winner against the slightly quirky barney roy who carries his head slightly awkwardly and is still learning his trade

anyway i get the feeling he might need the type of ride he got there and is stretching out here, although there does look like being pace on here, this is going to be run on different ground and although i have always liked him and his price is appealing, i didn't rate the eclipse that highly

i still think this is tricky betting heat bar the filly but if she didn't run i will be looking outside the top of the market especially on soft ground...if the ground is ok i think highland reel would take a lot of beating but lets hope we get it soft so it opens up a can of worms

i have also struggled with last years champion stakes where inflated ratings were rewarded to all runners but were in my opinion way above what they should of been...

I agree with that harry. The race was slowly run early on and as often is the case in slowly run events it leads to a problem with form ratings. The front two had showed superior form previously but because of the slow pace the form ended up more compressed than it otherwise would have been. The form ratings compilers are left with the choice of downgrading the winner, which they are usually reluctant to do, so end up rating the winner correctly but giving inflated ratings to those behind, such as My Dream Boat.

i have to say i have jack hobbs pegged at a very low level group 1 wise and really he is a disappointing type considering the potential he showed as a 3 year old but for me he never really improved much from the dante, i know the ratings say he has but for me he isn't much better than that

I also agree with that. Even though I'm rating his races using different methods to you I came to pretty much the same conclusion. After the Dante I have him improving only 1lb on that in his subsequent races as a 3yo and older.

I think if HR is allowed to set a steady and not searching pace HR could quicken at the 2f or 1f pole and nick the race whilst the other principals could be involved with scrummaging at the crucial moment similar to the Irish Derby. Neither will HR want a slow pace as that would play into the hands of JH and Ulysses; Enable is the unknown as she has only beaten maiden and not Group winners at this distance excluding Rhododendron who clearly did not stay in the Epsom Oaks - she was cruising 2f out - according to Moore and AOB.

I hope all the principal runners turn up to give the racegoers a proper spectacle. I might even lay Enable again if she goes off shorter in the race.

Jack Hobbs has run 4 times at 12f winning 3 easily and finishing 2nd in the Derby to Golden Horn. On the other hand Highland Reel has run 11 times over 12f and has been beaten 6 times. May I suggest that judging Jack Hobbs on the evidence available from those four runs can only be guessing whereas with 11 runs a pretty firm idea of what suits Highland Reel can be made. I know JH ran over 12f at Newmarket but he fractured his hip at some stage during the race and was pulled so naturally that cannot be included.