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These 1576 comments are related to the topic:
Epsom Derby 2017
Epsom Derby 2017
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I think if Eminent was trained by either AOB or Gosden he'd be fav now.
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A bit of trivia.
Ranking in descending order of Derby entries by wins and winning distances in Group 1, Group 2, Group 3, Listed races (more points for better race, and more lengths). Churchill Thunder Snow (some on dirt) Best Solution Permian ... not yet entered Capri Waldgeist Best Of Days Eminent Venice Beach Cliffs Of Moher Douglas Macarthur Rekindling No wins in G1, G2, G3, Listed Benbatl Cracksman Crowned Eagle Diore Lia Dubai Thunder Fierce Impact Finn McCool Glencadam Glory Mirage Dancer Pealer Salouen Tamleek The Anvil Wings Of Eagles Yucatan |
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I had a look at the Cracksman / Permian Epsom Trial again on youtube "Simon Holt Reflect and Projects about Cracksman"
Permian's jockey had his whip in his right hand. At 100 yards out he switches the whip to his left hand and the horse doesn't run a yard from there to the line. |
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lots of derby winners have been beaten but run well in the 2000gns .eminent falls into that category.bred for the derby?yes
which was the last derby winner to finish so far down a guineas field? Generous finished a running-on 4th but had previously won the Dewhurst. Eminent's guineas run says to me simply not good enough I'll be surprised if he places. |
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I think Eminent has a serious chance A-T. Not on his Guineas form but on his Craven form. He was running right away from Rivet and Benbatl who have both confirmed the form to be right up there with the best on offer. In fact it is probably the best form on offer. His run in the Guineas was good as it was a top class race and gave him the more experience he required and he was running over a mile, and not further which will have helped, unlike possibly running in the Dante.
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he was beaten 3 1/2 lengths? possibly over a trip that breeding suggests on the dam side was a bit sharp for him? unlike a lot of the other runners he will be more suited by 1m 4f
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Mirage Dancer a NR? Last matched at 40. Disappointing if he misses the race - I think he could have turned round the Chester form.
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16/05/10 Weekender
"In the last 50 years 12 horses have won the Derby who previously ran in the 2000 Guineas. All 12 reached the first four at Newmarket." "In the last 21 years 23 horses who failed to reach the first four in the 2000 Guineas have run in the Derby without success." Ran in the Guineas, ran in the Derby 2010 ... Al Zir, 9th in the 2000 Guineas, 6th in the Derby 2010 ... Buzzword, 14th in the 2000 Guineas, 8th in the Derby 2011 ... Native Khan, 3rd in the 2000 Guineas, 5th in the Derby 2012 ... Camelot, 1st in the 2000 Guineas, 1st in the Derby 2013 ... Dawn Approach, 1st in the 2000 Guineas, 12th in the Derby 2013 ... Mars, 6th in the 2000 Guineas, 6th in the Derby 2014 ... Australia, 3rd in the 2000 Guineas, 1st in the Derby 2014 ... Kingston Hill, 8th in the 2000 Guineas, 2nd in the Derby 2015 ... Moheet, 8th in the 2000 Guineas, 10th in the Derby 2016 ... Massaat, 2nd in the 2000 Guineas, 9th in the Derby Kingston Hill did well in the Derby after disappointing in the 2000 Guineas. |
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johnny as regards mirage dancer I haven't read anything but last last there was some strange betting patterns on this horse
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last night
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As we've said before stamina is relative to class. In a 12f race if a horse rated 140 at 10f faces another horse rated 130 at 12f the 140 rated horse could run as much as 9lbs below his best over the longer trip and still win. On the face of it there doesn't appear to be any truly outstanding runner at shorter distances in this year's race so you'd have to think whatever wins will probably have to get the trip really well.
I've said I think Cracksman is likely to get the 12f but I'm beginning to wonder if he'll get it as well as he gets 10f. I've already referred to the Epsom trial where for me Permian was running on empty in the last half furlong rather than Cracksman running on strongly. On viewing Cracksman's debut over a mile the same thing seemed to happen there. Wild Tempest came with what appeared to be a winning run to take the lead 2f out, however his run petered out very quickly in the last furlong and he was spent. Sure, Cracksman stayed on better but he was staying on better than a spent horse, not one that was putting up a battle. I don't envisage Cracksman treading water when he tackles another 2f for the first time but I wonder if he will really excel over the trip, as I think whatever wins will probably need to. |
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Figgis
Just to add to your comments about Cracksman. He may or not improve for 12f but I don't think that the Epsom run is a good enough guide to draw that conclusion. That race was run at a false pace which resulted in a slow final TS of 70. However, Cracksman ran the final 2f in 22 secs which is fast enough at 10f to believe that the horse has a classy turn of foot, better than any of the other contenders in point of fact. For example,I clocked COM at Chester at 24.55 for the final 2f with a TS rating of 94 which wouldn't be good enough to have confidence in him as a Derby winner.However, he did perform better at Leopardstown and on that run, he is a live contender. But, neither Cracksman nor COM have reached a level which suggests that with some certainty we could say that these are likely Derby winners. Both have to improve significantly, as do the rest of course. On what we have seen, I couldn't put one in front of the other at this time.COM is at least by Galileo but is out of Wave who only won at 5f and never ran beyond 7f. Cracksman is out of a Pivotal mare who was a miler. Neither has a cast iron guarantee that they will stay imo. If Permian wins the Derby on his 11th run he will break some kind of record for sure. Without going back decades I can't find a Derby winner that has run that number of times (Erhaab won on his 9th run). Very uninspiring at present. |
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Cracksman ran the final 2f in 22 secs which is fast enough at 10f to believe that the horse has a classy turn of foot
Yes I don't doubt he has a decent turn of foot in those circumstances he faced that day but would he be able to reproduce a good turn of foot off a faster early pace over a longer trip? I'm not convinced by the way he ran in the later stages of the race. He was in a well run race on debut but by my reckoning would need to up that about 18lbs just to win a Sir Percy level Derby. It's entirely possible he could improve that much or even more, as it was only his debut after all. However, it's quite well known that in light of the publicity for Frankel's 2yos a lot of them were being readied for their debut a bit more than they possibly otherwise would've been. But, neither Cracksman nor COM have reached a level which suggests that with some certainty we could say that these are likely Derby winners I can't prove it as it depends on how each person rates CoM as a 2yo but I'm quite confident he's already run fast enough to fight out the places in a slightly above average standard of Derby, providing he's as effective over 12f, which still has to be proved. I think he's already run fast enough to just about win a moderate Derby. If he goes on I'd expect him to improve a few pounds from last year but can't be totally confident of that one way or the other from his inconclusive trial. For me, it mainly depends on how good this Derby ends up being on the day. Looking ahead I don't envisage many runners really excelling for the pace and trip so I'd be a bit surprised if it takes a lot of winning, although there could be something lurking capable of hammering the rest. |
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Sorry, I should've said would need to improve 15lbs on his debut. So certainly not an insurmountable task, but at current odds I couldn't think of backing one who would probably need to improve at least that much.
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Figgis - probably your best summary of where COM stands. If he shows that 2yoy speed and is effective over the extra furlong then he should be right in the mix. There will be plenty of horses in the race that either get outpaced or aren't suited by the trip. Obviously the scrubbing along during the dee trip is a concern but hopefully that was his greeness and where Coolmore were with the work at that stage rather than his ability level. For me the market has this spot now, all the unexposed horses at the front of the market with the exposed known quantities. One of the COM, Cracksman, Eminent trio has to have enough improvement to beat the best solution, permian, derrinstown form etc. If something else wins outside the top three i would be consigning this three year old generation to the dustbin fairly quickly
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Figgis
Using RPR's (which I'm forced to for easy comaprison) there have just been 4 horses in the past 28 runnings which improved by 15lbs or more over their PB (Shaamit,Lammtarra,High Rise,Workforce) so it is 6/1 against it happening on that basis. As the median winning RPR for that period is 125 and Cracksaman's RPR is just 107 that's an 18lb difference to reach an average performance. COM is rated just 1lb higher so it needs +17lb to hit the average. |
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@Sandown, will something need to run to 125 to win this year's derby? it could well be won running to 122+ or something lower
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Sandown
I wouldn't expect RPR's to rate CoM any higher as times would have little bearing on their ratings. Part of the idea when using times is to hopefully be ahead of the curve, of course they can put you away too. In my experience most form ratings simply put a number on what is usually already obvious to everyone else, which is fine if you want to stick with short priced favourites. If CoM goes on to win the Derby RPR would have him improving at least a stone or whatever, whereas I'd probably have him a couple of pounds better. |
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FA
I can't answer that except to say on balance of probabilities it seems unlikely. |
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Figgis
I agree with your general point about needing to identify reasons for believing that the RPR's and more importantly OR's understate the merit of runs but I have nothing whatsoever on times or sectionals(apart from Cracksman's) to support the case for anything yet.If you have a case for COM then it comes down to price and risk/reward judgement. |
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As the median winning RPR for that period is 125
it could well be won running to 122+ or something lower I can't answer that except to say on balance of probabilities it seems unlikely I use Raceform but rarely look at the RPRs, but if 125 is a 'median' figure for over a 28 year period then surely there have been a few occasions when the winner ran at least 3lbs less than the median? Especially when you consider the big variance in ability of winners during that period. |
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I have nothing whatsoever on times or sectionals(apart from Cracksman's) to support the case for anything yet
So on CoM's Leopardstown performance on the clock you agree with RP that he needs to improve 17lbs? |
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Figgis
Yes of course there are 50% below 125 and 50% above 125. The lowest recorded in this period was Sir Percy on 118 and the highest High Chapperal and Authorized on 130. At present, my personal best figure for COM is 111 so just 3lb higher than the RPR, so +7lbs would put him level with Sir Percy. |
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ah yes i forget that Sir Percy derby wasn't exactly a vintage renewal. I suppose that's the low bar for Derby winners although Dylan Thomas turned out to be a very useful 4yoy. Sandown how many winners of the derby do you have running to less than the 125 over the last 10 years?
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FA
Sandown how many winners of the derby do you have running to less than the 125 over the last 10 years? 2 below (Ruler of the World 121, Pour Moi 121) one on 125 (Australia.) |
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interesting, i had Australia down as an a slightly above average Derby winner but that was maybe my impression on the day rather than anything else. Golden Horn and Sea the Stars i would imagine might also be considered to be above average winners considering what came out of those races and what they did subsequently. Very interesting none the less
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Eminent's chance hinges on whether you think he ran below his Craven mark in the Guineas or not. Initially I rated him higher in the Craven, believing he was probably still feeling the effects of that when disappointing in the Guineas. Looking back though I doubt the Craven was as good as I thought at the time. Going into the race I had Rivet as a poor RPT winner but Eminent and Benbatl were very promising once raced winners and unexposed. No surprise to see them show better form in the Craven but I also rated Rivet as improved and the fourth horse Contrapposto improving far beyond anything he'd shown in four previous starts. I was prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt as horses can occasionally get 'dragged along', for want of a better expression, against better opposition in a well run race.
After the Dante I had to re-evaluate the Craven as I just can't rate the York race anything more than moderate. I have Permian and Rekindling running to my previous marks for them and if I go back and rate Benbatl's Craven run the same lower mark I have him in the Dante then everything makes more sense. Which means Rivet hadn't improved at all in the Craven, he just ran to his previous best, Contrapposto hadn't progressed the unlikely amount it seemed and Eminent's run in the Guineas wasn't a below par effort after all. If Eminent goes on to win the Derby no doubt I'll be kicking myself for downgrading him but that's how I see him right now. |
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I have Eminent running to much the same form in both races, any difference being too small to quibble about.Another who has to improve a lot but he might. Didn't look too bad in Epsom work-out. I was rather more taken with him than Cracksman tbh.
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Eminent's chances also revolve around whether you rate the Guineas as higher/below the prospective Derby winning form
I have this year's Guineas as competitive but at the moment I rate it below average. That said, the winning performance was still better than anything on show here but as for a 6th placed horse going on to win here, well it's possible but it would be a really disappointing level for the race unless he can improve again. |
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@figgis, although could you not argue over a completely different trip he would either improve or that he was running an inadequate distance in the first place. As much as we all like to consider the mile form and how the race was might be run in the Derby there is a certain level of guess work in knowing how to translate a mile into 1m 4f
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Had another look at Cracksman's action in the trial and BWTS. Both forelegs just spend too much time in the air. He'll pick up sharply when he hits the ski jump finish, of course, but that only gives him about 120yds to play with. Won't he have lost his race already?
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FA, I find that speed ratings rarely go up much as horses move up in trip. Maybe a couple of pounds now and then but not much more than that. It's just that races generally get less competitive as the distance increases. A fairly recent example I can think of is Kingston Hill who was much more competitive when finishing second in the Derby compared to his Guineas 5th but I had him only 3lbs better at Epsom. Australia didn't run as well as he had in the Guineas so they finished closer together. I think if Eminent improves it will be because he's progressed anyway rather than the trip being the reason, just my view of it.
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Handsome is as handsome does, and all that, but I think the appearance side of things is seriously underrated in form study. Not so much the way a horse looks but more the physical impression the horse makes on you when winning its race. I've seen horses win by 5 lengths that have typically been described as impressive but personally I've not been overly impressed with the manner of the win. Whereas I've seen horses win by a length and a half and had that sense of witnessing a powerful performance. Have to say Cracksman hasn't impressed me so far visually, but others will obviously differ on that.
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TH I understand your comments about Cracksman's action but I do think it will be better at a faster pace. When he is going steadily he is climbing rather than shuffling along. I'm pretty sure, and I hope, that if they go a faster pace he will be able to lengthen instead of climb. His action certainly looks like he would appreciate a bit of cut and he was fine when allowed to stride on when he ran for the first time.
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Churchill to win the Irish 2000 Guineas, run in the Epsom Derby and hack up.
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completely agree figgis about good looks however I have the opposite view with cracksman, I think he's a good looking and imposing colt and as sandown said his sectionals were very impressive last time out.
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I thought he was quite good looking from what I've seen of him, but I'm talking about when the horses are actually racing, physically during his paces he hasn't impressed me, not that that sort of thing always counts. As for the sectionals, the early pace of that Epsom race was very slow, leading to a really poor final time for the grade, so in my view sectionals under those circumstances don't mean a whole lot, although I know others project what a horse might be capable of in a truer run race. In this case though it would take a huge upgrade to project that form to anything like Derby winning standard. And I still reckon the front two were running tired in the last half furlong, particularly Permian.
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And to put that into context about the splits, Bay of Poets finished similarly, which can even be seen without use of the clock.
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