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Epsom Derby 2017
Epsom Derby 2017
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do you think Permian might not be a short runner over the derby trip, ffs? he was run out of it in the Epsom trial, and seemed to be fading slightly at the end at York too
maybe he put up great sectionals because he's a 10 furlong horse interesting what you were saying though about how certain horses progress due to their breeding and most punters don't seem to take that into account. |
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Permian 10f horse for me too,cannot have him beating Cracksman at all given any luck in run!
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Crystal Ocean
Right now no decision has been made about whether Crystal Ocean is going to Epsom. Sir Evelyn de Rothschild can see it’s a wide open this year, that Churchill now is going elsewhere following his colts highly promising run in the Dante; as an ageing owner-breeder he might not get a better chance. I have had some on him at 50’s for a punt. Hope uncle has not given up yet. |
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Graeme83 good question. It has been a bit of a roller coaster ride. You start off 6 months ago thinking he will win it, then you doubt it, JG upgrades the races he was intended to run in while winning trials with his other horses, he plays down this horses chances and he still wins, his owner doubts his ability to even win the Dante let alone run in the Derby, he is withdrawn because of the going which makes me think they think he actually has a serious chance, JG comes out and says he wished the Derby was today and all the while Coolmore and others do everything they can to make the opposition look beatable. Goodness me the next 2 weeks are probably going to seem like a year.
At the moment I'm pretty calm, I think he has good enough form credentials to win, and that is something I never thought I would say, he has arguably the best trainer and jockey for the job so I have no concerns on that front. His stamina and ability to handle the course look solid. I hope there are no hard luck stories either way. |
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Very good article in today's Post by Nicholas Godfrey.
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the derby trip and track doesnt suit a lot of good horses.churchill maybe might not be suited to the cambers turns and hills and hollows. the epsom derby isnt the bee all and end all.a lot of bang average horses have won it over the years,and good ones have been beaten in it.
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So what is going to win?
1) Eminent 2) Yucatan 3) Cracksman 4) Cliffs of Moher These are my comb tricast. |
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Removing Churchill from the picture helps somewhat but the race still has a lot of uncertainty left, too much for me to get involved at present.
Nothing has performed to a level which constitutes a strong case so far and with just 12 days to go its unlikely that we will get anymore visual evidence to go on.COM and Cracksman are probably the right favs but neither rate strong enough at the prices to justify having a bet A/P. Day of race decision for me now. |
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As far as I know no horse beaten in the Dante has ever reversed form with the winner
all of the dante runners can be crossed off as far as I'M concerned ans Cracksman can be added to that list also as He is basically the same horse as Permian |
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would cracksman be rated a doubtful stayer?
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This may help Kavvie 'Pivotal is Cracksman's damsire and also of last year's St Leger winner so stamina should not be a problem'.
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fair enough brig thanks.i was just looking at the frankel influence.5s is a good price so..
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My bet in the Derby is Permian.
I have small bets on likely non-runners Orderofthegarter, Best Of Days, Rivet at big odds. Because Cracksman beat Permian narrowly at Epsom four weeks ago he is challenging for favoritism at 6.2 while Permian is 15.5. Is this because Permian won two races since that Epsom race, going from RPR 103 to 109 to 114 that Cracksman's price has fallen? Permian has improved, not Cracksman. We don't know if Cracksman has improved. It was mentioned above that Cracksman has Pivotal as damsire, and a recent St Leger winner has Pivotal as damsire, so Cracksman should stay. The only other horse I can find by Frankel out of a Pivotal mare is Seven Heavens (trained by John Gosden). He has run 6f x 2; 7f x 4 and has entries in the 8f Irish 2000 Guineas and the 6f Commonwealth Cup. Better imo to look at Cracksman's dam, Rhadegunda, to for an opinion on Cracksman's staying potential. Rhadegunda ran eight times as a 3yo before retiring, 7f x 3; 8f x 3; 9f x 1; 10f x 1 Her best run was a Listed win at 9f at Fontainbleu on heavy. Permian's dam, Tessa Reef, ran nine times as a 3yo+, 8f x 7; 9f x 2, so you would doubt she would produce a horse to last 12f (see below). Tessa Reef'as offspring: Second Wave probably 10f; New Caledonia 12f; Samana Cay 10f; Royal History 9f; Destination Aim 7f; Calypso Cay 8f (my opinions). ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. I posted this on the boards.ie Derby 2017 thread Permian is the horse I have backed for the Epsom Derby at 16.5 (15.5/1). Positives Born on 1st May 2014 so may be improving more than the older 3yo colts. Won the Group 2 Dante Stakes well (RPR 114 that race), in a good time (8th fastest Dante). The 2017 Dante was on good/soft (questionable). Has also won on good/firm. Five wins, two 2nd, two 3rds from 10 runs. His last five runs were at 1m 2f or longer. Has run at nine racecourses, so is experienced, and has a good competitive attitude. His dam, Tessa Reef, ran only at 8f and 9f, but her offspring seem to get 1m 2f or more. His sire, Teofilo, ran five times at 7f as a 2yo and retired injured. Teofilo's stud record is good with many offspring rated over 100, and include Irish Derby winner, Trading Leather. Negatives A small colt, I would prefer if he was bigger. Beaten a short head in the Epsom Derby Trial in April by Cracksman. Cracksman caught Permian on the line after slight trouble in running. Cracksman is 5.2/1 and imo he is less likely to stay the Epsom 12f well. Permian is not entered in the Derby. Connections must pay £85,000 to supplement the colt. They said they will supplement. ......................................................................................................................................................................................... I have old RP Weekender cuttings of Nick Mordin system articles about the Derby and other races. An article dated 16/05/10 said the winner of the Derby was almost always in the top two RPRs before the race, and that 12 of the last 13 horses before 2010 to win the Derby all earned RPRs of 118 or more in one of their 3yo starts. He said in 2010 "so far this year we haven't had a single Derby contender that has done that, which means that the Derby winner is likely to emerge from some race yet to be run - probably the Dante, the Gallinule Stakes, the Glasgow Stakes, or the Irish or French 2000 Guineas" He was right. Workforce (114, "bit ran through mouth") has his first run of the year in the Dante, finishing 2nd to Cape Blanco (120), before winning the Epsom Derby. Cape Blanco next ran 10th of 22 in the French Derby on soft, and then won the Irish Derby on good/firm. RPRs before Epsom Derby 1997 Entrepreneur (124) 4th; Benny The Dip (117) 1st; Silver Patriarch (117) 2nd 1998 Cape Verdi (125) 9th; King Of Kings (124) 15th 1999 Saffron Walden (123) 7th; Dubai Millenium (118) 9th; Oath (118) 1st 2000 Sinndar (118) 1st; Sakhee (118) 2nd 2001 Golan (122) 2nd; Galileo (118) 1st 2002 Hawk Wing (125) 2nd; High Chaparral (119) 1st 2003 Kris Kin (119) 1st; Refuse To Bend (118) 13th 2004 Snow Ridge (123) 7th; North Light (120) 1st 2005 Dubawi (126) 3rd; Motivator (119) 1st; Oratorio (119) 10th 2006 Sir Percy (120) 1st; Visindar (117) 5th 2007 Authorized (121) 1st; Eagle Mountain (117) 2nd 2008 New Approach (121) 1st; Tartan Bearer (119) 2nd; Casual Conquest (119) 3rd 2009 Sea The Stars (124) 1st; Fame And Glory (120) 2nd This year only Churchill at 121 meets the test. Looking for a horse with an excuse: Waldgeist (108) on very soft might improve on better ground. Orderofthegarter (97) may not have liked soft in the French Guineas. He ran (112) in April. Eminent (111) in the 2000 Guineas "nudged right entering final furlong, keeping on same pace and held when not much room well inside final furlong" Best Of Days hasn't run in 2017 Cracksman (107) in the Investec Derby Trial " trying to switch out right and not clear run 3f out" My worry about Permian was the 16 day gap between the Dante and the Derby. Would he recover in time? His races in 2017: .... 14 Apr ....... 12 days ....... 26 Apr ..... 10 days ........ 6 May ...... 12 days ...... 18 May ................................................................................................................................ Another poster on boards.ie posted the RPRs of the leading Derby contenders Cliffs Of Moher rpr 108 Cracksman rpr 107 Eminent rpr 111 Best Solution rpr 113 Permian rpr 114 Mirage Dancer rpr 101 Yucatan rpr 112 Venice Beach rpr 108 Dubai Thunder rpr ? Crystal Ocean rpr 111 Capri rpr 111 Douglas Mccarthur rpr 112 Rekindling rpr 107 Waldgeist rpr 108 Wings Of Eagle rpr 106 None of them meets the Nick Mordin RPR 118 minimum. |
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Between Cracksman and Permian it is the latter that is the more exposed and with limited improvement and/or potential given his many more runs. And as such I believe the former is the more likely of the two for further improvement if the allusion of his trainer was to be believed; the former's withdrawal from the Dante also could be pivotal, and a blessing in disguise for the Derby (I hope).
This year's Derby looks very open however, it would not surprise me (and hope) a "superstar" emerges from it. |
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A small point about the Investec Derby Trial.
Cracksman was gives a RPR 107; Permian was given a RPR 103 The margin was a short head "lead last stride" Did Cracksman get points for style? |
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He doesn't win points for style but I can understand why people think Cracksman has the sexier profile.
If you want to talk about stats then surely it has some relevance that Johnston has never won the derby yet Gosden has on a couple of occasions. I'm not convinced Permian has improved since that Epsom blue riband trial run I think he's just been running in better races and his rating has risen accordingly, and surely it must concern you that Permian was running on empty at the end of that blue riband trial and yet has a couple of furlongs further to go here? Personally though I don't think either of those two will win anyway. I think others will relish the trip more. |
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Maybe on that day ffs but it was his first run of the season and only his second ever run. JG thought he was too backward to win yet he overcame a slow pace, being boxed in and then chasing down a horse who was bang fit, had first run and has almost the best form in the race.
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If this had been any old race I would be extremely confident about Cracksman's chances but this is the Derby ffs. And that is where the doubts come in. However Figgis once sais along the lines of 'you cannot judge the quality of a race by it's name'. That puts a slightly different slant on it.
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*said
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by the look of it it could be the biggest derby field ever could some be balloted out as 20 is the max number
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Godolphin or Ballydoyle might have something a bit undercooked that they are polishing for the big day.
The public form looks so average I'm hoping a few trained in France or Germany might run and spice it up a bit. |
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I watched the Dee Stakes and the Investec Derby Trial won by CoM and Cracksman respectively, again.
In the Derby Trial Permian had had 1st run on Cracksman who was momentarily blocked by the former when a gap appeared but was outstayed by the latter despite having had a 2/3 length advantage; I think Cracksman would have won by a much further margin than a head if the distance had been further than 10f eg the Derby trip. On the other hand CoM had had to do his running much earlier on to get a better position as he was badly drawn in the Dee Stakes; he did not seem to be going away from Bay Of Poets at the finish despite having had 1st run on him which made me think CoM could have come to the end of his tether in the 10f race. |
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More often than not the Derby is run in a fairly decent overall time. Even when they go slow early the pace usually picks up early enough that we don't get a really bad final time performance. If I look back at the last 15 years the worst figure I have for the race was 2006 when Sir Percy won. I'm not saying necessarily he was the worst winner, he'd already run a lot faster when second in the Guineas, but the Derby seemed to finish him off anyway. Looking at only this season's form not one of the runners has run to Sir Percy's winning time performance. That's not to say any of them can't match it or improve on it, it's more likely that at the very least one of them will, but at the moment it's all guesswork. There are bound to be a few who will show their best form ever when tackling this distance at a stronger pace than they've ever gone before. But for some that have only been involved in slow races all their short career this new test will come as a bit of a shock and prove too much for them.
Bringing last year's form into it then I reckon Cliffs of Moher has already run fast enough to win an ordinary Derby, albeit at a much shorter trip and it's impossible to be sure that he'll replicate that over 12f. Of course I could be wrong about how fast he ran at Leopardstown. When you're judging a horse on only one run then there's obviously far more chance of getting it wrong. I've already allowed that the ground got slower between his maiden and the Listed race and it's possible I've still underestimated the difference and therefore overrated him. However, that risk is all part of why I considered him a bet, if he'd raced again last year and repeated that time he'd have been a much shorter price. Have to say though I wouldn't be so keen to take that risk at the current price. If CoM was a non runner I wouldn't be having a bet as even though I think it's probable at least one or two will improve considerably on past form I wouldn't be confident who is the most likely to. |
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Just a quick question Figgis in the Listed race they took a pull at around the 2 furlong marker allowing the 66/1 shot take over whereas in CoM's race he took it up early on then proceeded to make every post a winning one with almost everything off the bridle turning in while almost everything was on the bridle in the Listed race turning in. How can the time be relevant?
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Just to put into context how much I think these horses need to improve to match even Sir Percy's performance, taking CoM out of the equation, I have Eminent next best and for me he needs to improve 3lbs just to match Sir Percy's performance. I think he'll get 12f but I'm not sure he'll actually improve for it. In his favour I have his best race last time so he could still be naturally improving. The negative is he's already had a couple of hard races this year. I can't agree that this year's Dante was a good renewal. I have it 10lbs worse than Sir Percy's win. Maybe something out of that race will improve again on the big day, although personally I wouldn't take the winner from the race as for me he ran no better than when winning on Guineas day and I think his improvement has probably levelled off for now.
Looking back to Sir Percy's race those who ran close behind him improved a fair bit on what they'd shown before and I'm pretty sure that's what will happen here. Apart from CoM, Cracksman is the one that hasn't really had a proper chance to show what he is fully capable of. So even though I wouldn't go near him at current odds I wouldn't be at all surprised if he won. At the same time though I wouldn't be at all surprised if he didn't even make the places as it's still all about what he might do rather than what he's done. When he beat Permian a short head was that the Permian who won the Newmarket Listed race impressively and followed up in the Dante or was it the one who finished third in a Bath handicap only 12 days earlier? Nobody can answer that for sure. Permian's form appeared to get better after Epsom but maybe it was just that he was in stronger run races. In my view of the recordings he didn't see the 10f out as well at Epsom and earlier as he did at Newmarket and York and I'd estimate he improved. It could be argued that Cracksman wasn't seen to best effect off the slow early pace at Epsom and that might be true, but nobody can know how much better he'd have been and whether he's up to the kind of overall pace he's likely to get here. For those on at large prices none of this matters too much as they've already struck some great value and I say well done. I just believe that he's much too short at today's price. The same can be said about CoM, that he's there on potential, trainer, etc and that's true up to a point. However I'd argue that some of us backed him because we think he's already shown he's pretty fast when given the pace. We might be proved wrong but that's what we think at the moment. The same can't be argued about Cracksman, everything is based on potential with him even for his biggest fans. Looking at past races it's not always been runners who had the most potential who improved most on the day. There were years when horses who seemed comparatively exposed ran out of their skin and surprised most of us by going fairly close. This year I wouldn't be as surprised if that happens. |
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in the Listed race they took a pull at around the 2 furlong marker
Based on what sectionals? |
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Ah, so in 'times' you only go by the finishing time, got it. The way the race was run and any other visual clues are redundant because there are no sectionals. Simple.
You know I always wondered why I never bothered with times. |
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Permian's form appeared to get better after Epsom but maybe it was just that he was in stronger run races. In my view of the recordings he didn't see the 10f out as well at Epsom and earlier as he did at Newmarket and York and I'd estimate he improved.
i've got permian a whole lot better on a conventional track, he seemed to lose his action at about the 3 pole at epsom and looked very uncomfortable on the track thereafter imo this really is proving a brutal race to fathom for me and this is a group 1 only in name in my book...i still feel i can get there in regards a bet but it's tough for any handicapper trying to handicap these horses, you wouldn't want to know who i have top rated i do feel embarrassed  anyway this is like trying to solve one of the most tight knit derby races i can remember, with problems lurking every way you turn... i am going to go right to the wire as feel i will get a price on any runner come the day the way it is looking and some of the rags running cannot be discounted and i have no idea of the full field or draw so have to wait and see what the ground and draw is, i will be very surprised come the day if this isn't a very tight knit finish  (well done columbo) |
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Ah, so in 'times' you only go by the finishing time, got it
No, you made a statement of fact that they took a pull at the 2f pole, I'm asking you a straightforward question of how you know that? |
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On a positive note I have to say CoM looked visually impressive though not as impressive as Dubai Thunder.
How did I know they took a pull? You will have to trust me on that one.  |
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Brilliant summary HC. It has got me completely snookered. I do feel there could be a Group 1 horse in there but finding him is proving to be tough.
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oh there is one border line group 1 horse in there brigust1... i just want the price
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Making a statement of the bleeding obvious the horses I think are still in with a chance of being Group 1 are CoM, Cracksman, Eminent, Best Solution, Dubai Thunder and Waldgeist. CoM, Cracksman and Dubai Thunder are not yet exposed, Best Solution and Waldgeist have Group 1 form and Eminent has good class form at a trip supposedly short of his best so deserves a chance to prove it. The rest, I believe, have had their chances and come up short. For any of those to win the ones I have listed all need to fail to live up to expectations. Most might but for all of them to fail is asking a lot.
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If we're going by the visuals then you seem to have been watching a different race than me.
took a pull at around the 2 furlong marker allowing the 66/1 shot take over Truffles was in front after around a furlong, they didn't take a pull at the 2f pole allowing him to take over. almost everything was on the bridle in the Listed race turning in Some of them were already being ridden before the 3f pole and the majority of them were ridden shortly after the 3f pole. There is nothing unusual in that whatsoever. In most races the pace picks up somewhere between the 3f pole and the 1f pole. As I said you seem to have watched a different race where most were on the bridle turning in, the one I watched most were off it at that stage. The trouble when people get involved who in their own words take no notice of times, is they often misconstrue the term a decent pace or a fast pace with one that is run overly fast early on. A very fast early pace is not usually how a race is run in a good time, not unless the winner is out at the back ignoring the sacrificial lambs up front. There was nothing unusual or poor about the pace of that Listed race and it was run in a very decent overall time for the class. |
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you wouldn't want to know who i have top rated i do feel embarrassed
I want to know harry . Nothing to be embarrassed about. I might end up having to downgrade my rating of CoM shortly after the race is over. |
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well am trying to finalize a bet figgis so will post later am still pondering a decent bet or just a poke bet, i can't make my mind up
i will say i have cliffs of moher as my clear projected top rated horse, however that is just my own guess work although like a good few i liked his maiden win...i have to say though to many things are bothering about him although came very close to pulling the trigger with him...it really is a desperate affair but fraught with risk in my book but i think i am nearly there i just don't like what i have come up with figgis it's horrible!!! |
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Ah it is such a shame when you cannot differentiate between a decent pace and a fast pace. And I didn't know that when horses go off at too fast an early pace can affect them at the end of the race. What on earth have I been doing all of these years? I've been misconstruing things all over the place. Doggone it.
And even worse. You know how you hate it when someone thinks they know more than you and then don't hesitate to tell you about it? They are rare beings though, thank goodness. But they are around. |
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Dubai Thunder absolutely hammered the opposition so it did look more impressive to the eye. The negative is no matter how you rate that race it has to come out with a pretty uninspiring time. I'm not saying he can't improve on that, maybe a faster pace will be well within his ability. I have to think though that stepping from that one race as a 3yo to a Derby two weeks later, even a possibly weak one, is asking a lot of the horse.
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