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Horse Antepost
Epsom Derby 2017
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I've been misconstruing things all over the place.
Well you certainly did in that Listed race  You know how you hate it when someone thinks they know more than you and then don't hesitate to tell you about it? No shame in knowing less about a subject than someone else. You said you take no notice of times and you sound proud of it. I know next to nothing about cars. The difference is I don't get involved with disagreeing with those who do  |
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So to be clear, what do the sectionals say?
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So to be clear, what do the sectionals say?
So you do take notice of times? |
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I am just asking a question.
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They largely correlate with the visuals, which is they did not take a pull at the 2f marker.
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Show me where I can find them, please.
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Show me where I can find them, please.
Publicly available ones? I don't know, maybe some are available from Timeform subscription. Wouldn't interest you anyway as you believe they're flawed |
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You see if there are no official sectionals it is your opinion against mine. the only difference is that you chose to use sectionals to try to prove your point. If that is the case do you realise how dishonest that is?
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Sometimes even I find that the arrogance of some people knows no bounds. So I am off to bed. Goodnight.
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You see if there are no official sectionals it is your opinion against mine
Yes. the only difference is that you chose to use sectionals to try to prove your point I have not used sectionals anywhere on this thread to prove any point. I asked you what sectionals you were basing your judgement on. You replied you were using visuals. I disagreed with you about the visuals. As do the in running race comments. The video is publicly available. Your comments may be your opinion of how the race was run but your opinion is clearly wrong based on the visuals. If that is the case do you realise how dishonest that is? See above |
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I'm watching the news about the terrible bombing in Manchester. It is not a night for sleep.
Cracksman / Permian Looking at the Investec Derby Trial on youtube again I see the race started at the permanent 10f post (red post). But the bend around Tattenham Corner was moved out a lot which much have added a bit of yardage to the race. I agree with harry callaghan's point that Permian took a few odds steps in the last two furlongs. He also seemed to stop running when he got to the advertising hoardings on the inner rail about 100 yards out, from lack of stamina or surprise I don't know. In the Dee Stakes Cliffs Of Moher looked like he lacked something, probably fitness. Mirage Dancer was blocked behind a wall of horses before reaching the cut-off, then made up some ground on the rail but started too far back. The Derrinstown Derby Trial looked disappointing, against the time of previous runnings, and against other races on the card. On a pedigree note there are a few things about Permian that stood out. His second dam Massaraat is a full-sibling of super filly Miesque (10 Group 1s). Massaraat was rated 52 kgs, about 114. Permian has the full-siblings His Majesty and Graustark in his pedigree, often a positive (European champion sprinter Mozart 125 also had these two). Permian has the 3/4 siblings Sadler's Wells and Nureyev, again imo a positive. |
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I'm watching the news about the terrible bombing in Manchester. It is not a night for sleep.
Agreed, sickening and angering. Looking at the Investec Derby Trial on youtube again I see the race started at the permanent 10f post (red post). But the bend around Tattenham Corner was moved out a lot which much have added a bit of yardage to the race. Official report was the distance was increased by 29yds. |
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here's the comparable sectionals for cliffs vs sovereign, hand-timed (accurately!)
1f-0.31 -0.618 -0.323 -0.124 -0.288 0.334 0.643 |
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0-1f -0.31
-0.618 -0.323 -0.124 -0.288 0.334 0.643 |
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ffs
0-1f -0.31 (cliffs faster) 1f-2f -0.618 2f-3f -0.323 3f-4f -0.124 4f-5f -0.288 5f-6f 0.334 6f-7f 0.643 (sovereign faster) |
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looking back at the Derby Trial - absolutely no excuses imo for Cracksman, had every chance - The RP giving him 4lbs higher than Permian is ridiculous.
Permian did take one / two awkward strides on the camber, but visually he looks quite weak there, which is probably why he has progressed so well since then. Cracksman looks very forward, physically and not so sure if there's much more strengthening in him, he probably will come on for fitness, but he's so unbalanced looking - he really has trouble engaging properly, can't quite put my finger on what is exactly 'wrong' with him, But the Permian who won the Dante was a much stronger looking horse, and if you look at them side-by-side you can see it in him. The Cracksman issue is a head-scratcher for me, mb JG's comments that he's 'much more professional' indicate that he's letting himself down better, but we'll have to see |
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Still awake.
I'm in Dublin and away from the bombing in Manchester but it is troubling. There is no sense to all those lives lost and others badly injured. The government should cancel the election and round up a few people. If they don't there might be more horror. It may have been one suicide bomber. Others are organising the terror. |
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I agree about the election for a couple of days K but we cannot let these people win. I was just going to bed and spent the until the early hours watching this unwind with my son who had just come home from work. Puts all of our petty differences into the shade. I cannot imagine how bad this can be for those involved.
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#bwts eminent worked very nicely i thought
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gpz63176
Did Eminent pass the post 1st? Good omen if he did. I've done a double for the two Class horses to collect ie Eminent and Rhododendron. |
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wonder how many will be left in after the cut-off today?
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just youtube "#bwts" to watch the work of cracksman ,eminent etc
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I just saw Cracksman and the John Gosden interview..
I'm no expert. If I was using a racing cliche (hate them) i'd say he was carrying condition. in my words "fat". I'm talking about Cracksman, not John Gosden. He looks good.  |
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If Glencadam Gold comes out the traps properly he could be right in the mix imo.
There. I've said it now. |
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I am hoping he is right in the mix TH because JG doesn't think he is in the same class as Cracksman. I saw the JG interview and he talked a lot of sense.
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26 left in.
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how many runners do people think there will be? 17 or so, i had 10 horses exiting
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Churchill still in
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maximum runners 20 horses could b balloted out for the very first time ever
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Thunder snow surely isn't going, or Churchill, there is quite a lot of chaff left that won't run, even rekindling must be a doubt. I thought AOB would run 5 max regardless of any statements so far, so would expect his numbers to decrease between now and 3rd of June.
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I can understand Oppenheimer being bullish - he did win the Derby w Golden Horn - but everyone suffers from cognitive biases, it just depends on how aware you are of them affecting your judgement,
When he says (through JG) that Cracksman is bred to go 1m4f I just have to say there is little in his pedigree to justify that. (and otoh, it was very clear that GH would get the trip, though in that case the owner doubted it), Ok - for the positive, Cracksman has a half-brother who did get 1m4 but was by the heavy stamina-influencing Dalakhani, but whether that horse was better over 1m2 or 1m4 is far from clear, - that horse's full-sister never went past 1m2 One other half-sibling (by StS) never went past 1m2 The dam (Pivotal / Green Desert) also never went past 1m2 and was best at 1m1, you do get some positive evidence in that she had a half-sister (Halling) who was a proper stayer - but she was a stand-alone as the rest of her siblings stayed at less than 1m4 Now, I'm not underestimating Cracksman not JG + Frankie, but this is dubious to me, especially when it's compared to the family of Eminent: His dam was best at 1m as a 2yo and at 1m4 at 3, and the real beauty is his grand-dam, Quarter Moon, 2nd in the Oaks and Irish Oaks - a great racemare and a great broodmare, Of all the horses in the race, not that I've studied them inside out, he seems to be the one through Quarter Moon who has the 'purple' pedigree, and to me he is an exceptional looking racehorse |
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Golden Horn has a Dosage Index (DI) of 1.38 whilst Cracksman is 1.0 - the lower the figure the better for a horse going further (apparently).
Eminent has a DI of 0.74, and the class and form to win this race, given a trouble-free passage, I'd think. |
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I watched Youtube Breakfast With the Stars runs of Cracksman, Eminent, Best of Days.
Eminent looked the part, but I know nothing. |
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cracksman looked a bit ill at ease to me?
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Eminent exposed at G1 level - simply not good enough - going up in distance won't help. Cracksman is he good enough - we'll find out but if he's beaten it won't be down to stamina.
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Eminent is a real contender, I am sure he will improve stepping up in distance.
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lots of derby winners have been beaten but run well in the 2000gns .eminent falls into that category.bred for the derby?yes
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looking at the videos from breakfast in the stars, eminent beat his stablemate by less than cracksman beat his, but somehow impressed me more.
it's possible of course that cracksman is just a monster but it looked like hard work. eminent travelled around like a motor car. in fact the way he travels and in looks he reminds me of authorized, which can hardly be a bad thing. |