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Horse Antepost
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These 1576 comments are related to the topic:
Epsom Derby 2017
Epsom Derby 2017
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Hardly a possibility is it kinscem, I doubt the race on Saturday will take much to win AOB has 5 of the 8 runners. The horse would be worth a fortune if he could pull off that treble. I'm devastated he's not running had a nice season long bet with Churchill derby letting it down. The horse still stands at latest forfeit stage. Need some sort of miracle, but then I did have Newcastle to win championship
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A stumble after leaving the stall and unseating his jockey, an unlikely scenario I understand, but it could happen. What next?
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Royal Ascot more than likely would be next. He has only been kept in the Derby in case something goes wrong with their other main contenders.
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Talking about Eminent and his percieved "stamina problem" in fact he seems to have the ideal profile for the derby. He's got the speed of Frankel on the male side and his dam was by quarter moon, who was a staying on second in her oaks.
His dosage index is also .74 which is ideal. And going back to the looks thing, I can't get over how well he travelled yesterday in his spin and he looks like a middle distance horse. To me looks are more important that pedigree when assessing whether a horse will stay, many doubted golden horn but he looked like a middle distance horse. And Eminent in his spin really did remind me of authorized who hosed up in his derby a few year back. Maybe it will turn out that he's not good enough however it's hard to really get any confidence about any of the others. O'Brien seems to be as usual running half his stable and when you've got so many it's normally an indication that you haven't got any. Same with Godolphin and there don't seem to be the same vibes with cracksman that there were with Golden horn. My theory is with good travellers like Eminent is that the better the race the better they can look, because they go a much harder pace than they do normally. He'll switch off and when others are hard ridden in the final few furlongs he'll be cruising on the snaff. the derby should be an ideal race for him, because he won't have to run as hard early as in the guineas it's just a question if he's good enough. |
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I made up a few rules and ran them over the Derby field to see who passed.
I gave a free pass to Yucutan and Capri on 1. and 3. as they both narrowly lost their 1. last race, 3. group race . 1. won last race 2. won 7f+ 2yo race 3. won a group race 4. has a RPR 110+ this year These six passed Best Solution; Capri; Churchill; Douglas Macarthur; Permian; Yucutan These are how the others fared out of 4 Benbatl (1); Best Of days (3); Cliffs Of Moher (2); Cracksman (2); Crowned Eagle (2); Diore Lia (0); Dubai Thunder (1); Eminent (3); Fierce Impact (3); Finn McCool (1); Glencadam Glory (1); Mirage Dancer (1); Pealer (1); Rekindling (3); Salouen (1); Tamleek (0); The Anvil (0); Venice Beach (2); Waldgeist (2); Wings Of Eagles (1) |
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looking at the record of OBrien in every derby including and since the 2006 version won by Sir Percy makes for rather chilling reading for those who just like to back his runners blind.
In that period he's had over 40 runners and backing all of them to a £1 level stake would have returned an incredible loss for only an 11 year period of -£35, which considering he's won 3 derbies in that time, is rather depressing of course those stats would probably look a lot better if you threw out all the O'Brien runners starting at very long odds, and perhaps just counted the last five years, but it does rather suggest that backing O'Brien runners in the derby is not a financially good idea. |
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I don't think the amount of runners O'Brien has from year to year reveals much about the strength of his hand, I think it's just become the policy in recent years that when Coolmore have got anything that's a Derby type (and they usually have a few nowadays) they're going to run it. O'Brien has won the race 5 times and in those years there was only once, the first time with Galileo, when he ran only 1 horse. In Camelot's year he ran 2. I can't recall what else he could've chose to run but didn't that year but as Camelot was a Guineas winner who was always regarded as more of a Derby type it's fair to say they were pretty confident. When High Chaparral won he ran 3, Ruler of the World he ran 5 and even with the confidence behind Australia he ran 4.
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yes but the only point I was trying to make was that he's had an awful lot of ones beat
betting shops are filled with the ghosts of old O'Brien derby bets  so my logic would be do I really want to try and work out if cliffs of moher or venice beach have a more outstanding chance than some of the other fancied horses he's run in the race over the last few years that have been beaten, horses that whatever you say about them now were equally well fancied going into their respective derbies? I think O'Brien derby runners fall into two categories. they are either outstanding like Australia or camelot, or like 90 percent of the runners he puts in the race, are fairly ordinary. The whole cliffs of moher thing seems like a sort of Agatha Christie mystery to me. We are supposed to back it because it ran a good speed figure in a leopardstown maiden many months ago. But then again this whole derby is one great mystery. It's like a mystery wrapped up inside a riddle wrapped inside an enigma. |
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I changed the rules I used above when looking at past Derby winners by adding
2. (a) won 7f+ 2yo race 2. (b) won 10f+ 3yo race if the horses didn't win at 7f as a 2yo it must have won at 10f as a 3yo before the Derby (many did both) Year .......Horse................won last race.............won 7f 2yo.....won 10f 3yo........Group win.......RPR 110+.......Comment 2016 ......Harzand......................yes............................no.....................yes......................yes.................118 2015 ......Golden Horn...............yes...........................yes....................yes......................yes.................123 2014.......Australia.....................no.............................yes...................no........................yes.................122.............. last race =3rd in 2000 Guineas 2013.......Ruler Of The World...yes............................no.....................yes......................yes.................112 2012.......Camelot.......................yes............................yes....................no.......................yes..................121 2011.......Pour Moi.....................yes............................yes...................yes.......................yes..................118 2010.......Workforce.....................no...........................yes.....................no........................no..................114................last race = 2nd in Dante, "bit went through mouth" 2009.......Sea The Stars...............yes...........................yes......................no.......................yes................124 2008.......New Approach..............no..........................yes.......................no.......................yes................123..............last race = 2nd in 2000 Guineas 2007.......Authorized....................yes..........................yes.......................yes.....................yes.................121 2006.......Sir Percy........................no............................yes.......................no......................yes.................120..............last race = 2nd in 2000 Guineas 2005.......Motivator.......................yes..........................yes......................yes......................yes.................119 2004.......North Light.....................yes..........................yes.....................yes.......................yes.................120 2003.......Kris Kin...........................yes...........................yes....................yes......................yes..................119 2002.......High Chaparral.............yes...........................yes.....................yes......................yes.................119 2001.......Galileo...........................yes...........................yes......................yes.....................yes..................119 2000.......Sinndar..........................yes............................yes......................yes....................yes...................118 Conclusion: If the Derby winner did not win its last race it placed in the 2000 Guineas ................(or it had a very good excuse in a very good race (Workforce) All Derby winners won a 7f 2yo race or a 10f+ 3yo race or both. All Derby winners won a group race....................... (except one horse that finished 2nd in a good Group race with a vary good excuse) All Derby winners had an RPR of 118+ ...................(except the horse with the good excuse) |
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So no Mirage Dancer due to his work performance, down to the 27 possible's and an extremely tight book again at the current prices.
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As an ardent follower of this race and from experience I think the rightful fav ought to be Eminent, and Yucatan ought to be a lot closer in the betting to CoM who is extremely short on experience and racecraft. In my opinion both Cliffs Of Moher and Cracksman do not warrant to be heading the betting market on known info / form eg neither has Group credentials, both beat Bay Of Poets who was comprehensively beaten by Rivet who finished behind Eminent.
Eminent and Yucatan are trying 12f for the 1st time similarly Cracksman and Cliffs of Moher but rated higher in by the BHA and RPR; Yucatan ran on very strongly in the Derrinstown (10f) to finish 2nd despite given tender handling and far too much to do by Heffernan. I hope my opinion is vindicated post the race. |
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mirage dancer worked badly but presumably wasn't considered good enough to compete anyway. hardly a ringing endorsement for the dee stakes form. but having said that I do recall Aiden saying before he ran at Chester that they'd only just got him (COM) started again, and of all the derby runners, he was the one with the most amount of improvement to come.
had a look at cliffs of moher maiden win and he was hugely impressive, tanked his way through the field and showed a bright turn of foot around the home bend. looks a very high class colt in the making and not surprised the time was good. just a nagging doubt in my mind that the price has gone now. obviously if the likes of figgis and so on are on at big prices then fair play to them but is he a lump at the current price? handtimed the brekkie with the stars workouts of eminent and cracksman. eminent covered the final five furlongs approx .9 of a second quicker than cracksman, however not sure about the weights and also cracksman was heavily eased at the end. going back to the eminent stamina issue once again, the craven run and the guineas run give two contrasting outlooks. in the craven on strongly having seemingly hit a flat spot at one point; strongly suggesting a colt that wanted a step up in trip. However I believe in the guineas he was completely put out of his comfort zone being ridden up with the pace and then faded quite badly at the finish. That run didn't suggest a derby winner but whether he ran like that because he was feeling the effects of the craven run or if he was simply outstayed/outclassed, is hard to tell. given the way he worked in his day out, id' be inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt and suggest that he "bounced" in the guineas. |
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One thing i can say about the 2000 Gns is that it wasn't a strong early pace. I have any number of faster pace 2000 Gns on record. Something else to ponder is that Eminent may have been 6th but he was only 3.5 lngth behind the winner so the placing may mislead. (sir Percy was 2.5 lngth behind for reference). Also, take a look at those that finished in front of Eminent. They all look like milers /sprinters to me so the race wasn't run to suit him as much as those in front and his trainer is on record as saying that 8f is the bare minimum for the horse.
I certainly don't have him down as the obvious winner but he has as good a chance as any. His trainer, breeding and sales price all point to him being under the radar somewhat imo. |
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i concur regarding eminent but he does like juice and its very hot at the moment . he does look to be thriving at present though going off the work #bwts but might not get his ground ?
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I bought the Racing Post Weekender about an hour ago.
The writing in it isn't up to much these days. Tom Segal article headline: Cracksman could run away with the Derby if he gets rolling early Much of the article is about Derby winner Troy and how Cracksman is similar. Then he says the question is whether the Ballydoyle team will be able to hold off the "strong-staying sons of Frankel". More fiction in the paper than a Mills & Boon romance. |
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I believe that the best Frankels will be seen over middle-distances. His brothers both won stakes races over 12f and he himself was not stopping at the end of the Juddmonte International. The filly that won the Japanese Oaks did not look like she was stopping. If Cracksman and Eminent lose it will not be down to lack of stamina just whether they are good enough. IMO Eminent has already proved that he isn't.
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As Sandown has pointed out, the Guineas was not run to suit him and in my view he is a middle distance horse that was taking on milers in that race. I expect to see him improve plenty stepping up in trip. I backed him for the Derby after the Craven but not the Guineas as I didn't think he would have the speed to win the Guineas and I was not disappointed with his run in that race.
The fact that he finished sixth is pretty meaningless with regard to the Derby and I believe the Guineas will be regarded as a pretty decent race by the end of the season. |
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i'd rather take the Guineas on face value than try to look for excuses. if it walks like a duck...
does anyone remember a horse finishing lower than 4th in the guineas going on to win the derby? |
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I believe the Guineas will be regarded as a pretty decent race by the end of the season.
Most people seem to have taken a positive view of the race. For me it was the worst winning performance in the last 10 years. So interesting months ahead as we get to see how good it really was. |
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If taking the race at face value means ignoring how the race was run and just looking at the final result then that is a dangerous tactic in my view.
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although placed fourth generous was beaten 8 lengths before winning the derby .eminents profile is very similar imo and he was only beaten 3.5 ls
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sorry i was responding to at s dismissal of him cos he placed less than 4th in the guineas . i think you write off a thriving horse with class stepping up at your peril sir !
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does anyone have any knowledge regarding mirage dancer ? whom i was sweet on but obviously hes not cut the mustard in his work .stoute yard seem to be very tight . ie no leaksto the press he just faded away in the betting as far as i know . any stoute insiders oi oi !
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Mirage Dancer is not going to Epsom - his work was not up-to-scratch.
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1991 was a pretty poor Guineas. Generous beaten almost 9 lengths having already run 6 times before goes on to win the Derby by 5 lengths, beats French Derby winner and future Arc winnner Suave Dancer 3 lengths in the Irish Derby and then wins the King George by 7 lengths beating Sanglamore the previous year's French Derby winner.
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The guineas was Generous' seasonal debut he was entitled to improve for the run - plus he had already won at G1 level.
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ya i figured that 123 but i havent seen any press regarding it and wondered if any stoute connections would offer up something rather than just let us watch the horse drift from 18.0 to infinity . (and beyond ) . i like stoute but in this modern era i do feel he should publicise that the horse aint going before the drift . clearly hes said to the stable staff, hes not going ,lay him all you like on betfair and fill your boots . i think on the derby all serious contendors have a duty to let the general public know when connections have drawn stumps
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this year I think it's easier to try to eliminate those you think can't win. Eminent is one of those for me. I'm also discounting all the Galileos - only chestnuts from him win the Derby
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at ,i know i can read as can you . but there is a big feeling the horse improves for a step up and generous had a lot more experience so was entitled to run a bigger race . i feel you may be slating the winner . watch it now think of your rep b4 you say more
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Generous had already run 6 times so far less scope for improvement compared to Eminent. I don't buy this first run of the season nonsense, any decent trainer would not run a fancied horse in a classic race if not close to peak fitness. As the winner of the Dewhurst, I think Paul Cole would have had him pretty straight for the Guineas.
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as for mirage dancer somebody knew 2 nights ago wen on here it was being laid at any price yet it came back in to the market price before drifting to a crazy price some accounts need looking into that's all im saying
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gpz6316...it's in the Racing Post under Classic Update. It says: "Stoute rules out Derby bid for Mirage Dancer after workout".
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Generous had already run 6 times so far less scope for improvement compared to Eminent
and he didn't improve a lot post guineas? |
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Of course he did. You seem to be missing the point, if a horse can improve stepping up to middle distances having already run six times before including five runs as a juvenile, then a big unfurnished horse like Eminent can also improve massively with time and moving up to a trip more suited to his pedigree and running style.
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I certainly don't have him down as the obvious winner but he has as good a chance as any. His trainer, breeding and sales price all point to him being under the radar somewhat imo.
i think it's a tad much to say he is under the radar sandown he is after all 7/1 third favorite? i have wagered now the hard work is over, will put a write up up this weekend on how i see the race and the horses in it, of course i may just have a nonsense view but have put a lot of time in, so hopefully we have nailed him down in a desperate year for quality, am knackered with the books at the moment so fingers crossed we have found one if i haven't fecked up my own ratings that is |
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My two ante post bets are CoM and Eminent. Having watched the Guineas and all the trials since, those two are the only ones that would interest me still today.
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A_T
i'd rather take the Guineas on face value than try to look for excuses. if it walks like a duck... does anyone remember a horse finishing lower than 4th in the guineas going on to win the derby? I can't resist a question.  Psidium, 1961 Derby, 66/1 ...... finished eighteenth of the twenty-two runners behind Rockavon 66/1 in the 2000 Guineas. In their book A Century of Champions, John Randall and Tony Morris rated Psidium a “poor” Derby winner. In their book A Century of Champions, John Randall and Tony Morris rated Rockavon the worst 2000 Guineas winner of the 20th century, commenting that he benefited from "the most inept of competition". And this looks like being a poor Derby.  |
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My attempt to help journailits writing previews of the Derby
goes there with every chance in an open year relaxes well in his races and should see out the trip switches off didn’t get the run of the race going well on the gallops goes there with every chance no stamina issues hated the ground |
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The current betting has substantial improvement already built into the price for Cracksman and COM. Dettori and Moore (probably), Gosden & AOB, Cracksman unbeaten, COM talked up by connections, it comes as no surprise that these two will most likely be supported into even shorter prices on the day. Eminent comes from an unfashionable yard and has people looking at the form figure rather than the actual form - 6th last time ? can't have it.Eminent is rated 3lbs higher on RPR's than those two yet is third in the betting. As someone said, its not too much of a stretch to argue that it could be favourite as its the most likely of the trio to not just get but relish 12f.
In fact, on ratings as they stand, Permian has an even better case being the top rated on RPR's (114) and having won the best trial for the Derby in winning the Dante.Yet, its out with the washing really at 15/1 or so. There are negatives but 15/1? Best Solution is second rated to Permian on 113 RPR, higher than the first 3 in the betting.Waldgeist has won a G1, is trained by the best trainer in Europe in Fabre, yet is really out with the washing at 25/1 despite being targeted at the race. Negatives? the ground for sure, but this is the most stoutly bred horse in the race and guess who it has beaten?Best Solution,(Lingfield Derby trial winner)Capris, Douglas Macarthur,. Who are part owners? Tabor & Magnier. That still leaves others with chances such as Venice Beach,Dubai Thunder. This could be the year of a turn up. |