Churchill should win.

is he a lump at the current price?

I couldn't say CoM was an absolute lump on job at the current price but I can see his price shortening further. Last year USAR was backed into 7/2 fav even though there was decent support for Gosden's Wings of Desire. I have CoM already 4lbs higher than USAR's performance when finishing 2nd last year and 2lbs ahead of ROTW's winning performance. The question is whether Coolmore also rate him higher than those past runners of theirs. I doubt they'd fear this year's field any more than last year's.

I'm pretty confident in my rating of him, I'd say it's about 2/5 that I'm right. What I can't know for sure is how strong this Derby will be on the day. If it turns out to be as ordinary as it looks beforehand he'd have a very strong chance of winning. I also can't know for sure if there is a potentially outstanding runner amongst them who'll turn out to be a cut above. Cracksman looks to be the only obvious one with still untapped potential. As the cliche goes he could still be anything, but so far he hasn't given any hint that he could be outstanding. For instance he didn't put up a Workforce type debut performance when winning his maiden.

All things considered I'd much rather be a CoM backer than a layer at the current price and even with others available at bigger prices he's the only one I'd want to back.

Khalidi bolts up at Goodwood. Cannot be bad.

If that is true !mp123, and I hope it is, they may think he should have beaten Permian and with Cracksman likely to be a good bit better than Khalidi it augurs very well indeed. At least he wasn't a flop and casting doubts, eh?

Permian won the Newmarket Stakes and the Dante Stakes = Cracksman form boosted.
Permian beats Khalidi by 6l in the Newmarket Stakes and Khalidi wins the Cocked Hat = Cracksman form boosted.
Cracksman is getting an enhanced reputation every time another horse wins.

Permian won the Newmarket Stakes and the Dante Stakes = Cracksman form boosted.
Permian beats Khalidi by 6l in the Newmarket Stakes and Khalidi wins the Cocked Hat = Cracksman form boosted.
Cracksman is getting an enhanced reputation every time another horse wins.


Permian form is also enhanced Kincem. There was nothing between them at Epsom although I believe Cracksman would beat him again. But there is a big gap in the prices.

As long as the winner comes from these lot ie Eminent, Yucatan, Capri, Cracksman or Cliff Of Moher I'd be more than happy; a bonus if the combi tricast prevails too.

I'd like Johnston to win it for the 1st time and for the north with Permian...unlikely, my head tells me.

I think Yucatan would be more suited to the French Derby.

I'm pointing out that Cracksman's status at the top of the market is based on the form of others since his last race.
He may be scorching up the gallops at home but I'm going by what he has done in public.
He has won a maiden and a conditions race.

His sire has not produced a 12f winner on grass in GB & IR.

He will be 38 days off the course on Derby day.
Shaamit (217 days), Lammtarra 302 days), Harzand (55 days) are the only Deby winners in the last 29 runnings with a longer break.
Australia (35); Sea The Stars (35); Dr Devious (32); Generous (32); Nashwan (32) had the next longest breaks, but that was after running in a Classic.

There are so many reasons to question him
no Group win; low RPR; sire not a 12f winner and sire progeny unproven at 12f; long layoff

I analyse all the runners, and do the same analysis for last ~30 Derbys.

The last 18 Derby winners have all been 7/1 or lower (average 4.1/1) which points to Cracksman.

I know it is probably not de riguer to say this but it is possible Cracksman is a long way better the others.
Some have rightly said he may not improve past Permian but that is being inconsistent with what often happens, and is rightly expected to happen. JG was very concerned about Cracksman's condition, fitness and greenness at Epsom but he has apparently come on bundles since then. If that is the case that will put him some way ahead of Permian and through the 2nd and 4th horses in the Dante a long way ahead of others.
His stable companion today thrashed Raheem House who had Rivet form in the RPT and, when it is likely Khalidi, today's winner, is some way behind Cracksman that would put Eminent also some way behind him. Eminent ran well in the Guineas but only beat two 100/1 shots and two 33/1 shots. The proximity of Eminent to Churchill may have been exaggerated because Churchill may only do enough to win. He has beaten Lancaster Bomber by a lot further in the past so he could be a lot better than his Guineas form shows. Plus if Benbatl was inconvenienced by the going at Newmarket behind Eminent and Rivet but had his ground when beaten by Permian that would put Permian close to Eminent and therefore possibly some way behind Cracksman. 

Stoute has withdrawn Mirage Dancer because his work wasn't worthy of running in the Derby so that must put a question mark over CoM considering it would be quite reasonable to assume they both had equal possibilities of improvement. Yucatan had RPT form but is now not a runner. Gosden's other runner, Glencadam Glory would not be far behind Best Solution and JG has already said he is not in Cracksman's class. Venice Beach has form with The Anvil who finished last in the RPT behind Rivet and was beaten in his maidens last season. Through Rivet, Cunco etc he has little chance. Anyway with MD not running and CoM only a short distance in front of Bay of Poets, and considering it is likely Cracksman has improved since then, plus a race fit Orferofthegarter finished further behind Rivet than CoM on his best form, through several runners that puts CoM some way behind.

I know I a looking at all of the plus points but there are clear reasons why every other runner is some way behind Cracksman so it is not inconceivable.
I just thought I ought to point that out before the race.

I think but for his connection and high regard he is held by his trainer Cracksman would be trading at the same level as Permian for this race, why? His claim to fame is beating Permian, a runner here, and certainly beat nothing special last season; he is certainly no Golden Horn and Permian, despite winning the "Dante", won the most uncompetitive Derby trial, in my opinion.

Cracksman may and will beat Permian again because I think Permian is a just plodder which does not make Cracksman a much better horse than the likes of Eminent and Capri (both ran in Gp1 races) or Cliffs Of Moher (Listed), and like most except one has not run further than 10f.

Cracksman is certainly no Golden Horn, and from his BWTS at Epsom on tuesday, his forelegs "clawing" action does not feel me with confidence despite he is my pick to finish infront of CoM in a private bet with 'ffs'.

How many other times have you use the term 'simplistic nonsense' to the suggestions made by others?

Rarely, as, whether I agree with them or not, most of the others make reasonable arguments.


I started off by saying 'it is possible' that Cracksman could be a long way better than the others. Are you saying it is not possible?

No I'm not. As obviously it would be there in print if I had.

What form have you got to the contrary?

An unfit Bay of Poets got within 2 lengths of Cracksman. A fitter Bay of Poets got to within a length and a half of an unfit CoM. Therefore isn't it reasonable to assume CoM gave the better performance?

You don't know Bay of Poets was unfit, actually.

"We were pleased with his performance in the Derby Trial at Epsom and given that was his first run of the year, we'd expect him to improve," said Appleby.

According to his trainer he was expected to improve. Maybe we should only take notice when Cracksman's trainer says likewise?

And the fact that the race was slowly run would have helped him had he been unfit

So being held up at the back off a slow early pace, not getting a clear run, having to switch then sprint finish would help an unfit horse how exactly?

Considering JG has stated that Cracksman has improved out of proportion since his Epsom run and he trains Tartini why would I include it?

When Appleby said that about Bay of Poets he wasn't saying he had improved and I cannot find any evidence that he has improved. If he comes out and says that he has improved then I would take that on board, but he hasn't.

If you knew anything about horses you would know an unfit horse has a better chance of running well in a slowly run race than a strongly run race where his fitness would be exposed.

What RPR is average to win the Derby?
What RPR is average going into the Derby for a winner?
What improvement from best 3yo RPR before Derby?


Horse___________RPR before__RPR Derby__improve__(Year)

High-Rise_____________107___123___16___(1998)
Commander In Chief____113___127___14___(1993)
High Chaparral________119___130___11___(2002)
Motivator_____________119___129___10___(2005)
Sinndar_______________118___128___10___(2000)
Quest For Fame________116___126___10___(1990)
Ruler Of The World_____112___121___9___(2013)
Authorized____________121___130___9___(2007)
Galileo_______________119___127___8___(2001)
Harzand______________118___124___6___(2016)
Oath_________________118___124___6___(1999)
Benny The Dip_________117___123___6___(1997)
Dr Devious____________118___124___6___(1992)
Camelot_______________121___126___5___(2012)
Golden Horn___________123___127___4___(2015)
North Light____________120___124___4___(2004)
Australia_____________122___125___3___(2014)
Pour Moi______________118___121___3___(2011)
New Approach_________123___126___3___(2008)
Nashwan______________126___129___3___(1989)
Kris Kin_______________119___121___2___(2003)
Erhaab________________126___127___1___(1994)
Sea The Stars__________124___124___0___(2009)
Sir Percy______________120___118___-2___(2006)

Median________________119___125.5___6


Generous______________121*___133___12___(1991)
Workforce_____________114___129___15___(2010)

Shaamit
Lammtarra
Kahyasi

* Generous: only RPR 106 as 3yo but RPR 121 as 2yo
  Workforce Dante RPR 114 was low due to "bit through mouth" problem


This year
Cracksman ..............................RPR 107
Cliffs Of Moher ......................RPR 108
Eminent ...................................RPR 111
Best Solution...........................RPR 113
Permian...................................RPR 114
Venice Beach..........................RPR 108
Capri........................................RPR 111
Rekindling ..............................RPR 113
Waldgeist...............................RPR 108

To get to a poor Derby winning RPR of 121 some of these need to a big jump.

Sorry F, but that is wrong. A 10f strong gallop will test a horse's fitness far greater than a 3f strong gallop. 

The point is we don't know just how fit or unfit he was. My guess is, from his trainer's comments, that he was pretty fit for his first run.

A 10f strong gallop will test a horse's fitness far greater than a 3f strong gallop

Not true anyway if the horse is held up at the back off the strong pace.

Considering JG has stated that Cracksman has improved out of proportion since his Epsom run

Is that what he said? If that's what he said then it may be true, but to use your words I cannot find any evidence that he has improved, and the gallop didn't do anything to endorse that statement.

I've seen him say this about Cracksman, "I am very happy with him and he has come on a lot from Epsom.The form got a nice boost on Saturday, not that our fellow (Khalidi, third) turned up, but that is another matter.He has been in great form since the race and he has come on a lot mentally. He learned an awful lot".

But then last year he said this about Wings of Desire after his pre-race gallop, “Frankie was really happy with him, and is thrilled with way he has come on mentally. This place takes no prisoners,” he said.
“He loved the way he came down the hill, changed his legs nicely in the straight and picked up when he wanted. He’s learned a lot, come on strongly and didn’t blow much after".

What I can say is these are very minor points, nit picking in fact

Nit picking? Maybe. I'd say I'm just calling out the cherry picking of bits and pieces of form and statements from trainers that suit your argument but tossing others aside that don't.

What Wings of Desire has to do with it I have no idea

It has to do with questioning the validity of using Gosden's statements as a fact his horse has improved, as you have done, instead of providing any real evidence.

I certainly wouldn't bring up AOB statements about his other horses as evidence. Heaven forbid

Neither would I. Which is why I haven't used any statements of his about CoM. It would be terribly hypocritical of me to do that then ask what his previous statements have got to do with it