well soul stirring certainly was....

the way cracksman stayed on last time, it didn't strike you as a horse that was going to have a problem with 1 mile four

If you watch the Epsom trial you can see in the last half furlong that Cracksman's stride was visibly shortening, but you can also see that Permian's stride was shortening even more, he was cooked, that's why both Cracksman and Bay of Poets gained on him at the finish. I know it's usual for horses to run slower in the final furlong but it's not always as obvious to the eye as it was there. I don't think that suggests he'll lack for stamina, I still think he's odds on to get 12f, I just think his performance in that trial wasn't as good as it might've seemed.

is anyone taking bets about when we will know Churchill is a non runner? Will he tell us before the declaration stage for the Irish 2000 Guineas, I think it's Monday?

ha ha would be a surprise if "The Outfit" do us any favours but there is a first time for everything

A_T I have history of being wrong predicting AOB, I thought he would tell us after the Dante. My next guess is today during interviews about Carravagio.

Oh so Cliffs of Moher being injured means they will change their mind about whether Churchill stays? Is that how it works?

I have always said my views are based solely on AOB's actions. Some people think Churchill will stay if another horse doesn't run. While some think if they doubt Churchill's stamina he will not run no matter what happens. Some even write off all of AOB's other runners and think all of his decisions are based on the horse they fancy. That, in my opinion, is not living in the real world.

i dont think coolmore will run churchill in the derby for the same reason as was stated last year . they have a imbalance regarding speed in their stud . they need a horse to take on kingman and frankel . theyve already got galileo , australia , camelot , ruler of the world standing as derby winners another makes no sense commercially .having digested the trials, mirage dancer will win the derby imo . best of luck

The decision to run Churchill, in my humble opinion, is whether or not they think he will stay the 12f trip and nothing whatsoever to do with their other Derby runners. I guess 2000 Guineas and Epsom Derby winner a more marketable commodity than one of each. That is assuming one of their other runners has a Derby winning chance.

There will be many considerations around if he won or if he lost and how that would affect their plans in the future but the main consideration will be how well they think he will get the trip. And anything else is a side issue.

Enable and Shutter Speed are not Churchill. They are also homebred fillies. There is the world of difference. There is also the world of difference in how quickly we were informed about their targets.

*other two

They also made their decision with the proviso that if one was unable to run they may well switch.

I understand AOB's dilemma to some extent because he clearly has little confidence in his Derby entries to the extent that he may still be considering running a horse with, even they think, has potentially little chance of staying the trip. It was so much more different for John Gosden and his fillies.

brigust what is the significance of the fillies being homebred?

A_T possibly because they will be off the market so their races may not be decided on their individual market value.

You are right KS I think I have said enough. On the Cracksman bet I only want to cover my stake, not the bet, thanks.

The Aidan O'Brien-trained colt was made favourite for the Investec Derby at Epsom after his victory in the Qipco 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, but is almost certain to stay at a mile for now.

O'Brien said: "It looks like Churchill will go for the Irish Guineas, and Lancaster Bomber (fourth at Newmarket) could go with him. I'd say it's very unlikely that Churchill will go for the Derby."

O'Brien has dominated the Classic trial picture over the last few weeks, and added of his Derby squad: "There are seven horses very strongly in the picture at the moment for the Derby.

"The three Leopardstown (Derby Trial) horses (Douglas Macarthur, Yucantan and Capri), the three Chester Vase horses (Venice Beach, Wings Of Eagle and The Anvil) and the Dee Stakes horse (Cliffs Of Moher)."

It's hard for anyone to be overly confident about anything. Godolphin and Coolmore are chucking anything and everything at the race.  Even Waldgeist is still an intended runner, even though he won't be at the practice ceremony. Brig - what concerns you more, one being too good for Cracksman, or 'tough luck' in running ?

Doubt there's money for wald. They're just shortening him up as he's been confirmed as an intended runner. He's has the same form or better as some 14/1 and 20/1 shots, but his re-appearance was poor enough.

Watched a replay of Harzand's win and something in the post-interview with DK Weld really struck me as I had been taking issue with Permian / Cracksman

As Weld said, "for these middle-distance horses this is the time of year June and July when they really start to come into their own" - i.e. that they're not the typical forward speedballs who dominate 1m and shorter.

And that gave me greater confidence to make the case that the boost Cracksman got from Permian winning the Dante is very dubious,

That, in fact, Permian had won it on his own Merit as a progressive horse who has been thriving on his racing - coming forward from Epsom to win a Listed race at Newmarket, beating the Feilden winner (getting 3lb but winning 6L), and then forward again to Group 2 success. The collateral form isn't significant because the horse who won the Dante was much improved from the one who ran at Epsom.

Looking at the Teofilos aspect is revealing also, I believe. Jim Bolger held that horse in the highest regard, not just for his quality, but his mentality - Bolger horses are traditionally strong-willed and thrive on racing .. that's how he breeds them, and he was a homebred - he said he was always mature, even as a foal.

Then look at the best progney of Teofilo: Trading Leather, Pleascach, the Aus horse Palentino - and what you see is they thrive on racing, and don't start hitting their peak until after roughly 10 races (almost exactly in each case).

The Dante was the 10th race of Permian's career and I think he's in that mould of being tough and progressive, and as DK Weld said, this is time of year for a horse like him to really shine, and that's what he's doing.

Timeform back it up in their Sectional Debrief:

"The Dante was won in the fourth-fastest overall time this century – though not all recent editions have been run at the advertised distance – and deserves to be viewed positively, especially after those closing sectionals are considered. Permian’s 35.40s for the last 3f is quicker than Golden Horn’s 35.6s in 2015 and Wings of Desire’s 36.4s in 2016, incidentally.

Permian had been short-headed by Cracksman in a sprint finish to the Derby Trial at Epsom then run a useful overall time and solid closing sectionals when winning a Listed contest at Newmarket. Nonethless, this performance was still a further step forward, and those sectionals – which prompt a 120 sectional rating for the winner – suggest it was gained on merit.

The sort of time performance the principals will need to run at Epsom depends heavily on the pace of the race, but a 120 form rating on the day has been good enough to get second in two of the last five years and third on another two occasions."

Sinf when i say there's money for a horse, i usually mean he's been backed or tightened due to it being blue with quite a few bookies on oddschecker. I only think wald is blue because he wasn't priced up as an intended runner. Maybe i need to fix my terminology. Wald won't be winning anyway.