I've been on COM for ages

Fallen Angel, what did you make of him physically at Chester? On that score I thought he was the most impressive looking of the contenders I've seen. I was disappointed at first he had to be scrubbed and took so long to pass the leader but after closely looking at how the race was run I can forgive that. As he approached the post he was still galloping powerfully with ears pricked and looked head and shoulders above the opposition. You would never have thought he'd been ridden for so long as he barely looked like he'd had a race. I suppose the slow early gallop meant he wouldn't have had too hard a race anyway but the Epsom trial was slowly run also and I didn't think Cracksman looked anywhere near as impressive approaching the line.

Everything about Cracksman's maiden win suggests to me he'll stay. The fact that Gosden picked a mile race to start him off, was content to run him over that trip on good to soft ground, and the way he finished his race in what was a decent enough time. Whether he'll be fast enough is another matter.

I backed him after the Cheshire Oaks, backed him alone and doubled with Enable for the Oaks, posted on this thread. Even though I rated him I didn't back him earlier than that as I thought they might go the Irish Guineas route with him or another mile race. Think he was mentioned on here by others though earlier than that, Fallen Angel I think was on earlier. Don't think too many would've been converted on his Chester running if they hadn't fancied him before.

And if it's a strong pace - who do you like?, if it's a weak pace ?

you don't think if he comes round Tatt in a good possie he could drive to the line ?

Ffs, most of my thoughts on the race are based around CoM. If he's as good as I think he is, which isn't spectacular but still well above anything I've seen, I find it hard to see one of these beating him. Possibly Cracksman has a chance of improving past him as he's still not been completely exposed. I reckon he has about 20lbs to find on all shown form though so I couldn't back him and would just take it on the chin if he did win. If I'm wrong about CoM then nothing would surprise me as the race might not take much winning and Eminent's previous form would give him more chance than most.

Fallen Angel 11 Apr 17 13:34 Joined: 06 Jan 05 | Topic/replies: 2,182 | Blogger: Fallen Angel's blog
Cliffs of Moher has been really well backed since the weekend following Order of the Garter further franking of the maiden run with a win in the Guineas Trial stakes. Was still 20s on monday morning but the best price with any of the major firms looks to be 16s (only two go 16s) with most firms going 14/1. The leopardstown maiden back in October looked to be run in a decent time although recognise that maybe OOTG would be ridden differently in they were to meet again. Saying that 5L beating was impressive and didn't look to be stopping at the end. Has a Dante entry which is interesting and assume he must be highly thought of. There are no other entries for recognized derby trials. The three year old's that only got their first two year old run much later in the year i quite like as there have been a number of cases of the later maturing ones being the one to be on.

Posted by FA on 11 April so well before Chester, which anyone would've seen if they didn't have their head up their own arse, crowing that anyone who fancies him can't possibly have any mind of their own they have to be just following O'Brien. At least if some did back him for that reason they were far shrewder than the mugs who backed Churchill thinking O'Brien would surely aim him here

That's about right 'assume' simply because it is AOB's the bandwagon awaits

So the criticism is that he was trained by O'Brien so people must be just jumping on that bandwagon. That's funny, as even if that was the case it would be no different to thinking you're jumping the queue by backing Churchill for this race. I also can't see any difference in that and backing Cracksman. As in your own words you were just thinking ahead of the Frankel bandwagon, and the bet was planned as a trade on the market, with you sounding quite desperate to make that trade at one point, rather than any confidence that Cracksman is likely to win.

I tend to agree the Ballydoyle colts seem to be fairly even with nothing outstanding other than Churchill - and they can't all be champions. At Chester COM beat a horse not even entered in the Derby -  some may argue he's actually better than that or he'll improve but why him especially and not the others? What's so different about him? I happen to think they were very sweet on Sir John Lavery - Moore missed G1 races in France to ride him in the trial. The fact he was well beaten may just suggest the Ballydoyle middle distance colts this year are only an average bunch.

Incidentally looking at the Lockinge today there seems to be nothing  outstanding on the older horses in the mile division. This might help persuade AOB to keep Churchill to a mile.

and I can't have Eminent when was the last time a horse finished so far down a Guineas field and won the Derby? Generous was 4th I seem to remember, Sir Percy 2nd, New Approach 2nd, Australia 3rd. Finishing 6th in the Guineas seems to say simply not good enough at this level and stepping up in distance won't make any difference.

Orderofthegarter only has mediocre form despite being AOB's rep in France. He certainly is no The Gurkha or Churchill; he even finished behind War Decree who ran a shocker in the Craven.

I firmly believe the English Derby candidates are no better than the Irish ones as shown by the trials however, I'd not say the Irish ones may not even be placed though. The win of CoM in the Dee Stakes was not in the manner most were expecting but he did win despite his immaturity and having his 1st run of the season; the injudicious ride on Yucatan (13/8 fav) in the Derrinstown Stakes and Capri in the Ballysax both these horses have Group credentials.

As most will agree this year's Derby is very open and the two horses at the top of the betting market are mainly on their respective trainer's fame and not form related eg Cracksman and CoM, both with no Group credential. Nevertheless, I do hope the eventual winner will be better than last year's.

I'm pretty sure Eminent 'bounced' somewhat in the Guineas - suggested it might happen before the race. Not saying he would have won or even beaten the placed horse who all look good milers, but with a month to recover he should be in with every chance.

His breeding and running style says he is screaming out for further - though 12f may be pushing it?.

think eminent is overhyped and is a red herring.

someone said earlier that frankels don't progress much. I'd go along with that, earlier in the thread Harry mentioned this frankel filly Aljazeera, she got stuffed today, thus fitting in with the pattern of frankels three year olds that they don't really progress much.

one thing I feel very strongly is that COM and Cracksman owe their position in the market more to hype than what they've actually achieved. they've achieved about the same as Permian, venice beach and best solution. nothing more.

Think venice beach will prove the one who relishes the trip the most. forget all the st leger talk, this horse can win the derby. He might not have been visually that impressive at chester but at Epsom they'll go a proper gallop and the others will need to get every yard as we know this fellow will.

We're getting double figures about a horse who already has proven form over the distance and is related to one of the best middle-distances horses in recent years, and in fact being by galileo you could argue he's even better bred than she was.

There are not many people who wouldn't think that CoM's position at the head of the market has more to do with his trainer than anything else?

The reason for his position in the market was not mentioned. It was the comments that he has only been backed by people because of the trainer.

Most just like to green up, as they call it, and others just let it run. There is nothing wrong with that so they don't need to be poked at.

As for poking fun I only need to refer to the following post on someone else talking up a horse which was then 16/1 and is now only 4/1, which I would've thought was something to be commended. So the 'poking' comment is a touch hypocritical I'd say.

Oh shortened form 20's to 16's. Well knock me over.

[i]Has a Dante entry which is interesting and assume he must be highly thought of.[/i

That's about right 'assume' simply because it is AOB's the bandwagon awaits. Order of the Garter did his winning in Ireland but of course as soon as he left Ireland he got well stuffed.

But just for the record, I've never said anything about anyone who calls a trade as they make it. I'm talking about the ones who make post after post about a horse having next to no chance, only to reveal later they've had a cover bet on this no hoper at odds long since gone.

Yep LR, I don't mind anyone talking about races and bets from years ago. We've all got good memories and it's no fun recalling the losers. Bit different though when there's a long running thread and the first we hear is someone's on the first three in the betting, only at double figure prices that were taken weeks ago and their book is now all green

On a much happier note is anyone taking bets about when we will know Churchill is a non runner? Will he tell us before the declaration stage for the Irish 2000 Guineas, I think it's Monday? And will anyone be running a sweepstake of when 'the boys' knew he wouldn't be running?

LR, I wasn't accusing brigust of aftertiming, I know he posted his Cracksman bet early on and the intentions behind it. I did post saying he'd done well. I was talking about posts from elsewhere crabbing CoM's chances and his chances of even running, that he could be a lay, then we hear that he's been backed in a cover bet. No mention of backing Cracksman prior to the Dante then we hear after he's shortened that he was backed at better prices to win more money than a bet on Churchill that the poster has been banging on about for months. That sort of thing.

Fallen Angel 20 May 17 22:40
@unclepuncle, i've watched the guineas a number of times, sometimes I think he is incredibly unlucky sometimes i think he is well held. Just comes across as a very messy race, although to be fair the money has really come for him again in the last few weeks and he never drifted too much in the betting post the guineas. What did you make of the run yourself?

As I said I half expected him to bounce, partly because he had a proper race in the Craven just 2 weeks earlier and also it was his second run on very quick ground, which I don't think is ideal for him. Clearly the Guineas went like a dream for Churchill and not so well for the others who all got in each others way - but clearly the best horse won on the day, and the 2nd and third look highly likely to win Group 1's this year too so it wasn't a desperate run given all that. I always saw him as more of a Derby horse than a Guineas one - though to me his breeding suggest 10f may be his optimum. Think the Eclipse would be right up his street.
The Frankel 'not training on' thing is an interesting angle and there does seem some merit in it - though it's a very small sample size. The Derby, with Eminent and Cracksman will be very informative.

Obviously I may be slightly blinded by my antepost position having nibbled away at him between 40/1-50/1 over the winter - stakes long since laid off at around 12/1 for a freebie.

I simply wasn't impressed at all with COM in the Dee Stakes (though most seem to be pointing to his 2 y.o.maiden win as proof of his real ability). Clearly you have to respect his connections and he may improve a bundle as they suggest, but as a value backer / trader I coudn't touch him at the price (not even the 7/1 straight after) and will take it on the chin if he wins. Hopefully the first leg of Figgis's double comes in though.

As for Crystal Ocean I dont really think there was a major gamble on him - to me it was simply a market correction given the open nature of the race. I said on here he was the last remaining rick when available at 40/1 a couple of weeks ago, as given his form, connections and breeding he should have been 16/1 imo. Was always the chance Stoute would aim him at the King Edward at Royal Ascot instead but then if he wanted to go sfotly, softly I don't understand why he went for a very strong looking Dante with him. And for me he was the horse to take out of the Dante and if a definite runner would be about an 8/1 shot in my book. I've laid off my stake at 14/1 for another freebie.

@uncle - yes sounds like were in agreement that 1m 2f might be the optimal distance for Eminent, looking at the Dam's breeding i would be a little worried on that side that she doesn't add much in terms of stamina. Still stranger things have happened. Although from a p&L perspective he wouldn't be a good result if Eminent I would really like a decent 3yoy frankel crop as it would be good to see he has passed that real star quality on. So would certainly not begrudge them running really well.

I think it would be a good result, for some, especially the press but I guess you mean it wouldn't be a very good result for the Derby. I'm not sure anything winning would make it look a good Derby until, possibly, later in the season and there is more to judge them on.

the way cracksman stayed on last time, it didn't strike you as a horse that was going to have a problem with 1 mile four

quite the contrary it should improve for the extra distance

maybe i'm going a bit bonkers with this venice beach angle. nothing about it's form suggests that it's anything out of the ordinary.

all aboard the cracksman train