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Horse Antepost
Epsom Derby 2017
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Some people understand when they are being treated with contempt others are quite happy to be the victims
I'm glad I don't recognise myself as a 'victim' here, sounds pretty pathetic over such a trivial matter in my opinion. Neither do I feel I'm being treated with contempt. The clues are all there for anyone to take a punt on whether Churchill runs or not. I'm sure people would feel put away if they said we don't plan to run him, only for them to do a u turn if their alternative plans turned to dust. Some need crutches to support them while others have confidence in themselves, trust in their own ability and rely on their experience Ah right, I was under the impression you relied on the reports of others rather than your own ability to judge the ground from your armchair, my mistake  |
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And up pops another aftertime price, time to go.
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Anyone else think there should be a cap on how many horses from the same owners can run ? ...Obviously some would find a way around it, but i'd rather there weren't any hard luck stories in a derby. Running seven horses to me is a bit unfair.
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"Anyone else think there should be a cap on how many horses from the same owners can run ?"
No. Definitely not. I like it when Ballydoyle field 7 - it means we can have a good look at everything else with a degree of confidence |
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I do not think Ballydoyle will run 7 - 5 has been the most, if memory serves; there is also the French Derby to consider the same weekend.
I think three ought to be the most allowed especially in valuable and prestigious races eg Guineas, Derby and Arc, otherwise team tactics could get in the way to influence the final outcome eg majority from the same owner could be used to deliberately box in a principal opponent. |
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Graeme83
Anyone else think there should be a cap on how many horses from the same owners can run ? I would like to see two at most in one ownership in a race. Ballydoyle ran eight in the 2007 Epsom Derby, won by Authorized. Eagle Mountain 2nd; Soldier Of Fortune 5th; Yellowstone 8th; Acapulco 9th; Admiralofthefleet 10th; Mahler 11th; Anton Chekov 12th; Archipenko 17th (17 runners). |
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I remember being slaughtered on here for thinking Australia would run in the Guineas based only upon what AOB had said
Don't recall many doubting Australia would run in the Guineas why would they have done? What people doubted what AOB's assertion that it was going to run in the QEII on Champions Day and indeed it never did run in that race |
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Anyone else think there should be a cap on how many horses from the same owners can run ?
Would like to see them grouped in the betting that would cut down on the shenanigans and ultimately cut down on the runners from the same outfit |
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So what have we from this years Derby trials and what runs in the Derby
2000 Guineas Churchill don't know : Eminent runs Blue Riband trial Cracksman runs Chester Vase Venice Beach dont know Wings of Eagles don't know The Anvil don't know Dee Stakes Cliffs of Moher don't know Lingdield Derby trial Best Solution runs Glencadam Glory runs Derrinstown Douglas McArthur don't know Yucatan don't know Capri don't know Dante Permian runs Crystal Ocean doesn't run. Does ayone else see a pattern here? Obviously all decisions to run are with the proviso that all is well with them in the run up to the race. |
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And I brought up Australia, AT, because it was exactly the same story. Treat us like mushrooms and over exagerate the importance of himself and 'the boys'.
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It's "the lads" Brig. Definitely "the lads".
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There's also the Irish Derby, some will be split, and the ground will affect it also,
Dead Against grouping horses from same stable - ruins the options in betting on different horses who you might like over others (from same stable / owners) It might be controversial to say but I think it's prudent of O'Brien to stay basically impartial (if that's the right word?) If he nails horses A,B,C and then runs D,E,F because of ground / well-being he'd be slaughtered, Ofc he knows more than he's letting on, but there's really no upside for him being definitive with so many to juggle |
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Also, as you all well know, these are growing horses still - the improvement that can about in 4 weeks can be huge, or they can breeze badly and you realise they're over-cooked
It's different to, say, WP Mullins saying Faugheen is going to the Champion Hurdle and not over fences, though you do get trainers who will change tack mid-season - e.g. was it Top Notch ?? |
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Obv people on here like Antepost betting, or else they would just read the day-of-race (and for most people that's what they do anyway - whether O'Brien prevaricates over horses A,B,C two weeks before a race is nothing to them, and they are the bulk of punter money),
With the Antepost you could say he leaves opportunities open if you correctly read him, or otoh that it's tougher to back anything as it's riskier. I'll give him credit though in that he always gives an interview, is very polite, and it doesn't matter if it's the Derby or a maiden in Bellewstown. The man is a Saint ! Cut him some slack !! |
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Do you not think every trainer works under the same conditions? If anything happened to any of the 'supposed' runners causing a withdrawal we would accept our fate, as I have many times. When a trainer accepts the conditions AOB accepts and the responsibility of the numbers he trains along with it, in my opinion, is the responsibility to keep the public informed. I believe the decision about Churchill's participation was made even before he won the Guineas. Sir Henry knew about Frankel ffs. And the latest offering from AOB only confirms that view. I agree they will have a pecking order and I agree that they have to choose between 7 possibles but that has always been the crux of my objection, the number of horses he trains is detrimental to British racing not complimentary.
In his defence I guess he is just a puppet to a group of multi millionaires who care not about the racing only about the breeding. Without the restrictions under which I do believe he willingly operates he would possibly be a great trainer. |
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Had those 7 runners been trained by 7 different trainers the Derby picture we would be looking at today would be bright and clear. Goodness only knows what day that be with today's set up.
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When Permian won yesterday John Ferguson within the hour said he had spoken to the Sheikh and the horse will be supplemented and if all is well he will run at Epsom.
JG said Cracksman will go to Epsom for the morning with the stars, is in great form and is Epsom bound. Why cannot Coolmore come out and say something similar, they will know what their plans are they just don't want to tell us. And unril someone puts a rocket under them that is how it will remain. It is not beyond the wit of man that AOB can say exactly what his intentions are with regard to his string. The Irish 2000 Gns is next week and the Derby is in 2 weeks. He will know what the plan is and that is a fact. |
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I don't know the damage it does to 'Horse-Racing' - obviously it affects Antepost terribly, but for the millions who will tune in and have a tenner on whatever horse they fancy, they don't know their Storm Cat from any other Cat !!!
As for AO'B, does it hold him back operating for Coolmore ??? I think that's doubtful as the pedigrees and deep pockets are phenomenal. E.g. Al Zarouni, Appleby, Sin, hardly set the world alight with even deeper pockets and stallions arguably (w the exception of Galileo) who are better |
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Brigust, if you can make an argument that they keep the info under-wraps so as to make books that are favourable then I'm willing to listen to that,
But, imagine you were a trainer for the last ten years and be told you weren't allowed to race any Galileos ! Godolphin had to turn to Jim Bolger to get into the bloodline, and here we have a Teofilo as their best chance. |
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Ffs I don't believe there is anything sinister or some betting plot I just think their PR stinks. The way they race their horses is worse but their PR stinks. In my opinion of course.
AOB knows what his plans are for every horse. He may have alternative plans for some but what is wrong with that? He is training his horses in that regard. He is just not letting us know anything. |
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O'Brien never said anything more than Churchill was a 'possible', never sounded very confident to me. If people want to read more into that and back him that's their gamble. If they did choose to back him they must have been aware they were getting a much better price than if he'd been declared a probable runner. That's the gamble, don't cry like a baby afterwards.
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So, if he knows, ok - I believe that, and I believe he always saw Churchill as a 1miler and was happy to keep him at that.
So then the official word was that "If he's going to Epsom then he has to start on a new routine, we have to decide tomorrow (on Wed)" The problem arises when Ryan Moore says after winning the 2000 that "There'll hardly be a better ride", and "His daddy got the trip", ... Ryan may be tight-lipped but is he now suffering for Coolmoreitis !? or are there differing opinions in the Group about the horses, what targets to go for, the health of CoM ? UEFA said it was 'better' to work with Authoritarian regimes like S. Africa, Russia, China because 'you can get things done' ... It's easy for John Ferguson to ring the Sheikh and get an answer - but who can have these horses, these 'problems', and not have to work as a group (of self-made men) |
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The problem arises when Ryan Moore says after winning the 2000 that "There'll hardly be a better ride", and "His daddy got the trip"
He's just a jockey, surely nobody takes that much notice of them unless they're giving proper information of how well a horse is going at home (which is rare to hear), or relaying what they've been told by the trainer/owners. Part of his job is to talk up winners afterwards. What would he know at that stage? Nothing until his employers tell him. |
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The ante-post market on here still makes no sense. I could only get to a book % of around 87% based on who i saw running and that was with an 18 runner derby with some real unlikely runners. I excluded both Crystal Ocean and Churchill. Suggests there might well be some contraction in the prices from current levels. Even if i add both those horses back in it would be a very tight book.
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Added to that AOB said 'Distance is not usually a problem to a Galileo', with a mile and a half you are never sure, he can go down a lot of roads'.
Derrick Smith added ' We have plenty of other horses in the Derby, I am not ruling it out though'. 'Something could come out of the pack who looks unbelievable, would you run Churchill then?'. that, at the time in my opinion, is an honest appraisal of the situation. What has happened since then is silence and that, in my opinion in this day and age is unacceptable. To some who think this is about gambling and getting the best prices I disagree I do not believe this has nothing to do with gambling, this is just keeping us in the dark for no other reason than that they control the agenda. And this has nothing to do with the fact that I backed Churchill either. That was purely a sensible move to cover my position I never wanted him to run knowing there was every chance the other horses I had backed would shorten up, they would avoid the chance of taking on the best 3 year old and a potentially serious danger and there was more chance of a straight forwardly run race. Unlike the Guineas. |
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* I do not believe it has anything
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Can anyone explain how any of us can be entitled to feel hard done by if Churchill is declared a non runner? Apart from his backers of course but as I've said they were taking what they knew was a better price, it was their gamble. I took the view they were unlikely to run him. If they now declared him an intended runner I would have nothing to moan about.
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If it's a case of CoM being their best chance, they can't say or do anything until they are happy with him going on, he did have a hard race and only his 3rd of his career, so I guess they put him back in easy work and then give him a good breeze to see how he is ? ... All good ? Then Churchill is out.
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ffs...if Churchill is confirmed a non-runner and CoM is, you'll have won 1st part of (two) of my betting challenge; if CoM does finish infront of Cracksman, Mirage Dancer and Yucatan I'd still donate £50 to a local charity of your choice, ok? But I hope not as a win for either Cracksman or Yucatan but not Mirage Dancer will win me much more than if Churchill runs.
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I backed Churchill ante post. Will I feel hard done by if he doesn't run? Absolutely not. If I back ante post I know the risks. That is not, and never has been my point. Every other trainer has told us their honest opinions about their potential runners. All, that is, except AOB and Coolmore. And it would possibly be fair to say their runners will have the greatest effect on the race. That is unacceptable. You might be happy Figgis, and I have no problem with that, others might not care and I have no problem with that but I do care. I think they are treating punters with contempt.
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Nice to see Cracksman's maiden form, franked in the 1st at Newbury.
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Seems like some people have their own definition of possible.
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If the other yards had half a dozen possibles to plan around instead of one big hope they wouldn't be as forthcoming. As far as Godolphin making their intentions clear, the chances of one of their 'probables' making the gig isn't much better than one of Coolmore's 'possibles', with their current reputation of knackering them up before they get there.
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That only goes to confirm my point, which I have repeated several times, that one trainer being in control of so many possible contenders is bad for horse racing.
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I think that was put to AOB by Lydia (I think) after the victories of Churchill and at Chester but AOB eventually conceded that was too difficult a question for someone like him to answer.
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This was a good thread once.
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