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Horse Antepost
Epsom Derby 2017
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Isn't that what punting is? I see things my way, you see things your way
I'm not talking about what you think will happen. I'm talking about you finding it unbelievable that Coolmore will make the decision based on criteria different to yours. |
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Not sure Cracksman coming out of todays race can really be viewed as a positive to Epsom; although I guess we'll find out on the big day
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I don't think he has a zero chance of running. I think he has a chance of running if CoM doesn't come out of his trial well, which could still happen. A 1 in 8 chance of running is around about right I'd say.
surely the real odds of Churchill lining up at Epsom are less than 1 in eight Are Cracksman fans not concerned about the prospect of rain at Epsom? |
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right I try to place £10 on crystal ocean with Patrick power at 20 according to the trader they not taking bets on this horse for the derby and then tried to bet £10 at 33/1 with sadblokes for the derby I could have £6.16 that's it for fcuk sakes its the biggest flat race of the year gambling commission take there licence of them
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second bet was on benbatl
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LR, sorry I should've said 7/1 to run and win. In my view it mainly depends on how CoM shapes up after his trial, and really you can't put a confident price on that, but I'd say it's about 5/1 for Churchill to run and about a 3/1 chance of winning even if he does, as even though he has the best form I'd still see him as an unlikely stayer. So yes strictly speaking laying the 7/1 offers a touch of value, but laying those kind of odds for scraps of value isn't for me.
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In the same vein - they have to see how CoM comes out of his race - Figgis is right, it's not black and white - these are not machines, it's percentages and risk vs the racing pattern, long-term aims vs shor-term etc...
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What YOU think Coolmore thinks! What the bookies think is Coolmore's No 1. You may believe what you read but I prefer to rely on my own judgement.
When AOB said he would let us know in a weeks time it is suggested he wanted to see what his Chester runners did before deciding about Churchill, I think that is fair, but he when nothing came to light from Chester he still never said anything so I am giving him the benefit of the doubt that he will wait until after the Dante to decide. That may not be your opinion, that may not be AOB's opinion, but it is mine. And neither do I think it has anything to do with CoM. I think they have given themselves time to decide whether or not to take a chance on Churchill. Whether CoM runs or not will not change their view about Churchill's stamina. That is the key point, nothing to do with CoM at all. In my opinion. |
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lewisham ranger 18 May 17 14:32
Are Cracksman fans not concerned about the prospect of rain at Epsom? Not unless it gets really soft in which even anything could happen. Gosden is just making sure he doesn't have a really hard race 2 weeks or so before the big day, totally understandable given it looks a red hot Dante. I see it as a positive, in as much he as he is forgoing a £100k Group 2 for which he had a favourites chance to save him for Epsom - presumably he must really fancy him for the Derby. He took the chance to run Shutter Speed yesterday because she had a much easier task on apper (and duly won easily) and has over 4 weeks until her next intended outing. |
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What the bookies think is Coolmore's No 1. You may believe what you read but I prefer to rely on my own judgement
So in your judgement you think I'm wrong, fair enough, you think the bookies are wrong, fair enough. From what you've said you have to think that Exemplar is more in Coolmore's thought than CoM. He has to be if you think it's not believable that they will base the Churchill decision around CoM, but in your words they might base it on Exemplar. Interesting judgement. |
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Whether CoM runs or not will not change their view about Churchill's stamina. That is the key point
Of course it won't change their opinion about Churchill's stamina, that was never said and it is preposterous to even suggest that is what is being argued. The point is they don't know if he'll stay. They have doubts that he will, O'Brien has expressed those doubts. They'll have a rough percentage estimate of what chance they think he has of staying. They will decide if the reward is worth the risk compared to keeping him at a mile. That risk will be weighed up against other factors. One of the most important of which will be what chance they think their other horses have of bagging the prize. Anyone who thinks that is unbelievable is obviously stubbornly refusing to see beyond their own personal interest. |
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crystal ocean out with the washing for the dante, he is nearly a bigger price to win the dante than he is for the derby.
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Crystal Ocean is a bookie red herring, a classic marketing ploy by their PR people, I believe.
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Well, well, well.
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It's odd that Gosden cried off when the ground has to be actually on the fast side of good judging by the times. Got to think the ground on Derby day probably wouldn't be much quicker than that.
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Think I was being a bit conservative there, it's got to be good to firm, not just the fast side of good.
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They are saying soft, good to soft in places. Aren't they?
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Boost for Cracksman form no matter the ground!
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I think I have a live one.
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The time of that race has me confused. Is Permian really that good? Have they replaced the track overnight? Did they put patio heaters on? Did the race start from the usual spot?
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The winner Permain enhances the form of Cracksman but the 1st five have had a hard race, I believe; Gosden must be just as pleased as Johnston, the trainer of Permain with the result.
Will Churchill walk this if he runs if the ground is ok? I'd imagine so. Come on AOB, put us out of the suspense. |
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I think the race was shorter, I read somewhere.
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It certainly hasn't done Cracksman's chances any harm. Although Permian put up an improved performance last time at Newmarket and Cracksman did only beat him by a short head prior to that. Also, as has been said the Dante form looks solid but fairly ordinary, so bookie reaction looks a bit exaggerated again. Cracksman still goes there as a horse full of potential, but no more than that.
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[i]Rails:Rail all in innermost position on round course, no alteration to official race distances as per stalls section.
From BHA website. The time for the Middleton was decent too, considering there was only 4 runners and they didn't go mad. Nothing wrong with that ground. |
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It says in today's Post that the race will be 32 yards shorter. So much for the time merchants.
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Crystal Ocean out of Derby.
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Even if it's true that the distance was 32yds shorter, the ground still couldn't be any slower than fast side of good, as anyone with even a hint of a clue about times would know.
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Why should it not be true? The clerk of the course stated it in Racing Post. If you cannot trust the officials telling you when the distance is amended how can any timing calculations be worth anything?
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As Coomore's secret number 1 hope Exemplar has just been stuffed I await the announcement that Churchill runs in his place
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I have backed Churchill but I can honestly say I would prefer he didn't run ffs.
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Why should it not be true? The clerk of the course stated it in Racing Post. If you cannot trust the officials telling you when the distance is amended how can any timing calculations be worth anything
The final time calculations are done when all the evidence is known. If that's what the clerk said then it must be true. The point is the times of both races were so fast that a 32yds reduction still makes the ground no slower than fast side of good. So Gosden withdrew needlessly. |
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Actually thinking about it no that's total bollocks about the clerk. The distance used to be called 10f 88yds, along with the other tracks it has now been remeasured. It is now stated as 10f about 56yds, hence the 32yds reduction. The actual distance, however, is still the same as it was before, and so is the standard time. So my initial post stands, the stuff we heard about the clerk is twaddle.
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Oh dear, I may have put you away. The clerk actually said the race will be 32 yards shorter than the Musidora. Back to those times. I don't know what I'm missing.
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I'd like Churchill to run as I have backed Churchill at 8/1 and 10/1 (2000G/Derby) double, and in accas too; I have also back Cracksman at 9/1 and 8/1 similarly with CoM, Eminent, Yucatan, Capri. The 2017 Derby looks so open anything less could be an anticlimax even before the race stars. I reckon.
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On a more sensible note you obviously believe Cracksman would have won easily enough for it not to have affected his chance in the Derby. So I would say that, apart from Churchill, that would clearly make him the form choice, let alone one with potential.
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On a more sensible note you obviously believe Cracksman would have won easily enough for it not to have affected his chance in the Derby
I don't know if Cracksman would've won or not, I had no bet and wasn't planning to whether he ran or not. I did consider backing Benbatl while Cracksman was a runner, but decided against it. I had Permian third best in here and unlike the two I had ahead of him he was a certain stayer, so no surprise he won. I had Permian improving past his Epsom form last time at Newmarket, although with how that race was run it's difficult to get a proper handle on it. I can't say for sure if Permian improved because he was a better horse at Newmarket or it was because he got a much better pace. Maybe Cracksman would've been more impressive off a faster pace but then it's almost certain Permian would've performed better in those circumstances too. Cracksman might be much better than Permian, but he'll probably need to be as the Dante was very ordinary form, even if it's not a great Derby. |