We want to share an important update with our Betfair Community users.
Over the coming months, the Betfair Community platform will be winding down. The final active day for the platform will be December 21st. From December 22nd, users will no longer be able to access the platform.
Your discussions, insights, engagement, and, most importantly, feedback have helped shape the platform and guided innovation. Your feedback continues to be important to us, and we will continue to listen via our dedicated feedback channels, as well as through product testing and innovations.
To share your feedback and experience, visit: https://support.betfair.com/app/home
|
By:
All talk, nothing to back it up ... Come into a Derby debate roaring about the greatest race in the world - but won't lay a bet against it.
|
|
By:
|
|
By:
From the Irish Independent:
HOW his other steeds are performing at home will have a major say in terms of where Churchill runs next, according to Aidan O’Brien. And, by extension, where Churchill runs – in the Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas on Saturday week or the Investec Derby on Saturday fortnight – will dictate the plans of other colts too, he told the Irish Independent. Churchill, winner of the English Guineas, heads a Derby market which O’Brien dominates. He disputes favouritism with Cliffs Of Moher, which seemed most impressive of O’Brien’s three Derby trial winners. Cliffs Of Moher took the Dee Stakes at Chester, where Venice Beach landed the Chester Vase. At Leopardstown, General Macarthur led home a 1-2-3 in the Derrinstown for the barn. O’Brien also runs Exemplar in the Betfred Dante tomorrow at York, though he warns that the colt is just starting off in that event, in which recent Derby gamble Crystal Ocean is expected to be a hot favourite. “Exemplar will come forward a lot. The forecast rain would be fine. He is a grand colt,” O’Brien said. “I was happy with the trials but have no idea how many will run at Epsom. We’ve plenty of choices and likely will sort all that out at the end of this week or early next week. “None of the horses that ran well in the trials are out of Epsom and our Curragh plans will depend on the Derby. With Churchill, absolutely we are open-minded. He does relax, with a relaxed way of racing. “You couldn’t be confident he would get a Derby trip though and with most horses you wouldn’t be as he is one with plenty of pace. It’s whether we go that route or not; it depends on what way the other horses are going, what routes they go. Everything revolves around Churchill: if we make a decision on him, we make a decision on the others.” Regarding Cliffs Of Moher, his trainer says that he “needed the run badly at Chester and was just ready to go racing. We were very happy with him.” |
|
By:
"it depends on what way the other horses are going, what routes they go. Everything revolves around Churchill: if we make a decision on him, we make a decision on the others.”
Contradicts himself there in the same statement. At first he says it depends on how the others are and where they go, which is what I was saying earlier. Then he says the decision on the others will depend on the decision for Churchill. Anyway I still think it's all about the others, they don't really want to run Churchill unless they're left without other credible options, which seems unlikely at the moment. |
|
By:
I agree to some extent, it was a statement of the bleeding obvious. Except for the fact that after the 2000 Gns he said he would tell everyone in a weeks time.
I think, as he said, everything revolves around Churchill. To say they haven't decided yet I cannot buy. He has done his running. They either think he stays enough to take a chance, or they don't. The only credit I can give him, and it is totally against what I believe, is that it is so close a call they are giving it every moment they can. |
|
By:
I don't see what's so difficult to understand that they don't really want to run Churchill in the Derby but they do want to have at least one runner they consider to have a good chance. If the chances of the other runners start to look negative then they might decide to run him.
|
|
By:
|
|
By:
I did think of that but this is the 21st century ffs.
|
|
By:
Also - in that interview - the interviewer is a Churchill 'Yes' man, so he may have phrased some questions that make the headline seem more click-baity and have taken AO'B out of context (in terms of 'it all depends on Churchill' - you can see him asking that and AO'B just saying 'Yes' ..)
|
|
By:
People on here have already answered their own question in how they posed it but for some reason chose a totally different answer. If Churchill was considered a likely stayer and therefore a likely winner then they could've just said he's on course to run, all being well. However, if they're doubtful about his chances, which I believe they are, and would only seriously consider running him if something went wrong with their others, they would just say he was only a possible, which they have.
|
|
By:
The ultimate factor is the weather, I firmly believe.
|
|
By:
The decision will be made towards the end of this week (it's virtually already been made but this is when they've said it'll be announced) so the weather for the Derby can not be known and has nothing to do with anything at this stage.
|
|
By:
I think they want to run but are just making sure everything is in place. Had they not wanted to run they have had every opportunity to say so.
|
|
By:
I think they want to run but are just making sure everything is in place
What is in place? Had they not wanted to run they have had every opportunity to say so That's kind of a pointless statement. As it could just as well be said they have also had every opportunity to say he's an intended runner. Seems more likely that they wouldn't want to announce him as an unintended runner, only to have to back-pedal if CoM and others didn't come out of their trials well. |
|
By:
I think that is not right. Announcing him as an unintended runner was the easy option. Back pedal? You have switched the main players around here. CoM is not a main player. He is a substitute and if the don't run Churchill the others will be substitutes. How many people on this earth are looking to see if CoM runs? Everyone is waiting to hear if Churchill runs.
|
|
By:
Ok, have it your way. From the way you're now talking you've convinced yourself Churchill is their main player, an intended runner, a likely stayer and therefore likely winner. It's just a case of waiting for Coolmore to announce the inevitable. If that's how you really see it then I don't know what you were getting your knickers in a twist about. Something about that suggests you're trying to convince yourself.
|
|
By:
It is not my way. The interviewer was trying to find out whether or nit Churchill is a runner. CoM was just an addendum to the interview. It is the way it is.
I am waiting, you are waiting to see if Churchill runs. |
|
By:
*not
|
|
By:
I am still waiting as of course I don't know the answer, I'm not connected. I just don't see how their actions can be read any other way than that they're waiting to see how the others are before taking a decision on Churchill, not the other way around. If I'm wrong I'll admit it. I would probably lay him if he does run so at the moment there is no advantage for me to gain in the market as I would rather wait to get him at a much shorter price. Obviously I could lay him now but when I say he's an unlikely runner I think his chance of running is already reflected in the market, so no value there either.
On the other hand if I was of the opinion that he's more likely to run, as you have said you are and one or two others have, I'd be loving the fact there's be no announcement yet and the market that's created, as surely it's a mouthwatering betting opportunity rather than something to moan about? |
|
By:
I have already backed him. The fact that we have this AOB circus has nothing to do the Churchill just the way Coolmore mess the market up continually and this has been a hobby horse of mine for years. It's the Derby this time. You cannot have a good bet and neither can I because we know nothing, are fed crumbs and have to try to break the code for every horse that runs. Shutter speed has just run and JG has said she will more than likely go to France than Epsom depending upon the ground etc. How difficult was that.
Why couldn't AOB say Churchill is more than likely to run or not run in the Derby. All these shenanigans. He is now waiting until the final declaration stage for the Irish Guineas ffs. Which is in 10 days time. That is another reason why I believe the Derby is still top of the list. |
|
By:
Bit of a tell ?
No entry for Churchill in the Eclipse ... !? (Would clash w Irish Derby), |
|
By:
Actually - that's not confirmed, just saw the headline that Minding is fav for AO'B - he may be entered.
|
|
By:
Churchill is entered ffs.
|
|
By:
phew - he is entered, but at 10/1
|
|
By:
Why couldn't AOB say Churchill is more than likely to run or not run in the Derby
As I said before you've already answered your question but refuse to recognise it. Probably because of your earlier statement I have already backed him Ask yourself this question. If you were part of the connections and you were confident in his chances and intended to run him barring mishaps, and all intended runners are susceptible to mishaps, what possible reason would you have for not saying so? Now ask yourself this question. If you were doubtful of his chances of staying, not sure he won't stay, as nobody can be sure, just doubtful but therefore you'd prefer to keep him at a mile. At the same time the Derby is a very important race for you and while you have plenty of ammunition you wouldn't want to go there with nothing more than a rank outside chance. Would you announce early on that Churchill was an unlikely runner? Then run the risk of finding out that your possible Derby runners were crap, or came out of their trials poorly, or suffered a setback. Next thing you're having to make another announcement, "Sorry folks but we're going to run Churchill after all as even though we think he might not stay the rest of ours are garbage/under a cloud". Churchill, so far your flagship horse of the season, ends up going to the Derby with the public aware he's only going as a substitute. For me, if you answer honestly only one of those explains their actions so far. |
|
By:
If I was seriously doubtful about his stamina I would not run. I would remove any reason to change my mind. Leaving the door open is nonsensical and doesn't mean the horse will suddenly stay. The decision about his participation must be, and I am sure will be, taken in isolation then every other decision about runners stems from the end decision you make. Just as AOB has stated.
|
|
By:
What is becoming clear is that they have three choices. He won't stay, he will stay and not sure. They appear to be in the not sure camp because otherwise they would have decided. That is giving them credit.
When they have decided then they will decide where the other horses run. If they run from a 'not sure' decision they will two choices about who they run as well. They will not want the race to be run too fast, as they tried with Rip Van Winkle, so they will run others accordingly. In my humble opinion of course. If they run the only outcome is a Churchill win and they will strategy around that. |
|
By:
Otherwise, I think they will throw everything at the race, sit back and see what happens.
|
|
By:
If I was seriously doubtful about his stamina I would not run
Harwood expressed doubts about Dancing Brave staying, the decision to definitely run was made quite late, didn't Alex Bird get on at 5/1 while they were dithering? Oxx expressed doubts about Sea The Stars staying. Leaving the door open is nonsensical and doesn't mean the horse will suddenly stay As I've already said, they don't know he won't stay, they just think it's less likely he will. The doubts could be proved wrong, they've been wrong before. They're more likely to gamble if they have nothing else left. |
|
By:
Cracksman's run in the Dante is in doubt because of the ground and the proximity to the Derby if he has a hard race.
I'm sure they questioned Rip Van Winkle staying but he ran, another reason why I think Churchill will run. |
|
By:
What is the comparison between Minding and Churchill with regard to stamina?
|
|
By:
I'm in the same boat as some here ie backed Churchill for the Derby and the 2000G double too. But I do not blame connections regards decision made/to be made about his participation here; the comparison with JG/Shutter Speed/Enable is inaccurate as the Gosden's inmates share the same owner and one is stamina suspect thus sensible to separate them and target both the English and French Oaks, individually.
I believe if CoM had been impressive in the Dee Stakes eg winning easily going away (he had stamina susceptibility too), CoM would have been confirmed a definite for this race, and Churchill extremely unlikely, assuming all being well with CoM; as it was not Churchill is still their number one contender here, and rightly so. But the ground (forecast less than clement) could still have the final say if the forecast is proven right ie inclement weather abounds. I think either Churchill or CoM (still work-in-progress) runs here and not both for commercial reasons. Also, at the moment I think Minding will be doing battle for Coolmore over 10f eg Prince Of Wales Stakes, unless Churchill moves up-in-distance and excels then possibly he and Minding will share duties bt will not compete against each other, again for commercial reasons similar to Found last year unless it is the Arc, I believe. |
|
By:
I'm sure they questioned Rip Van Winkle staying but he ran, another reason why I think Churchill will run.
At that stage RVW had only finished 4th in a Guineas, O'Brien openly admitted he wasn't sure what his best trip would be. Churchill is a Guineas winner, totally different. |
|
By:
They also had Fame and Glory who was unbeaten and a Group 1 winner unlike what he has now in opposition.
|
|
By:
Yes but O'Brien always held RVW in higher esteem than F&G, he made no secret of that, the horse had a big reputation, a reputation that a few of us were beginning to think would never be deserved until his Eclipse run. After the Guineas he was talking that RVW may be a 10f horse who might stretch to 12f. He was quite well backed on Derby day. If RVW had won the Guineas I very much doubt he'd have been sent to Epsom, especially with F&G to rely on.
|
|
By:
RVW did not come from a family of sprinters also.
|
|
By:
I think either Churchill or CoM (still work-in-progress) runs here
Who'd have thought it?! For me CoM is an intended runner and he appears to be their number one hope for this race. Churchill will only be under consideration to run if something goes wrong with CoM's prep, and even then I wouldn't be sure they'll risk it. If they do decide to run Churchill the decision will be based around CoM, not the other way around. |
|
By:
So - what do you gents read into a 'only possible' from AO'B .. ? Percentage-wise
I'll kick it off by saying 20-30% |
|
By:
The year of RVW, they also had Mastercraftsman, dual G1 winner at 2 over 6f + 7f (Phoenix and National Stakes), went on from Newmarket to take the Irish 2000 and StJ
|