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These 1576 comments are related to the topic:
Epsom Derby 2017
Epsom Derby 2017
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ffs lets just step back a bit my knowledgeable fiend on all matters of breeding.
I began debating you shortly after your spiel that Cliffs of Moher was an “outstanding 2yo… based on Supposition, Inference, Logical Reasoning…the evidence is his 2yo Maiden win, which some rate (highly, very highly).” You added there was simply no “point running a potential Champion Miler” at Epsom with “a hard race effectively ruling him out of two v important races the Irish 2000, and then the St James”. “Commercial Logic just says no chance… I said it once before but I'll repeat it once - No chance Churchill runs, now they have a legit runner (indeed the fav).” Thereafter you went on to describe how the “commercial side is very brutal - it's where the fantasy meets reality. The reality is the St James is worth more than the Derby. In time, the Commonwealth Cup might be worth more again… Speed is the dominant commodity sought by breeders,” and then on again to enlighten us that “A Sire's value is based 1)On performance, not necessarily even at 1m but shorter 2)His looks, conformation, 3)His pedigree ... that gives him his first two books of Mares, and after that it's what he produces.” This resulted in The Headmaster providing a sound opposing view to your tripe stating the St James Palace in the grand scheme of things is nowhere near the Derby in terms of stallion making (I totally agree with his viewpoint of Coolmore’s increasingly urgent need of classy outcross options for all their Sadler’s Wells/Galileo blood and his opinion of the status between the SJP and Derby individually). He also asked you to back-up your nonsense and “show me the horse that won the SJP and only the SJP that has commanded a fee” and you inadvertently reply with just "You mean exclude good sires such as Canford Cliffs, Mastercraftsman, Henrythenavigator, ... I mean I could go on forever." Your argument is flawed and you cannot adequately reply and debate the status of the two races . The path Churchill takes as a racehorse in his classic year and as a prospective sire is occurring adjacent to the investment and timing with Coolmore’s Galileo trio: Australia, Gleneagles and The Gurkha; therefore, similar to High Chapparal going to stud at the same time as Montjeu’s first-crop three-year-olds hit the scene and Galileo’s yearlings were appearing. Considering the possible opposition may not include the placed horses from Newmarket, the Irish 2,000 Guineas Stakes right now looks his for the taking before perhaps meeting the Newmarket runner-up and French Guineas first two in the St. James’s Palace Stakes, but then again if he were to win the Epsom Derby, Churchill would represent the highly potent Galileo-Storm Cat cross that is free of the Danzig blood and his page would surpass Gleneagles’s even with his G2-winning dam being a full-sister to triple US champion sire Giant's Causeway. With doubts about his stamina it is the positioning this year of the Irish 2,000 Guineas in particular in relation to the Derby and Royal Ascot that has always been critical, along with the likely opposition, and as such he will go for the race where he has the most chance of winning. The whole basis of my rebuttal is this tripe you uttered- “The reality is the St James is worth more than the Derby.” “All talk, nothing to back it up ... Come into a Derby debate roaring about the greatest race in the world - but won't lay a bet against it.”- This is just moronic. |
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Churchill's initial value as a stallion will be greatly enhanced as a Galileo Guineas/Derby winner - their 4 Galileos standing in Ireland don't have that on their CV - Churchill sticking to a mile would not make him stand out from the others. If they think there's a chance Churchill will stay he'll run at Epsom.
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If they think there's a chance Churchill will stay he'll run at Epsom
A_T but what sort of chance do you think they'd need to reckon he had to choose to run him? |
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I mean percentage wise, or odds wise.
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There was more stamina in Gleneagles pedigree who is bred along similar lines to Churchill yet he was never seriously considered for Epsom even though they had no real contender that year. If I owned Churchill he would not be going to Epsom, especially if nothing really emerges from the Dante and CoM likely to go off favourite in that case.
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Aidan said immediately after Newmarket that Galileos nearly always stay (or words to that effect) - off the top of my head I can't think of a top class Galileo about whom we can say with any certainty that it didn't stay the trip. At present I would say even if they're only 25% convinced he'll go to Epsom. A Golden Horn type performance tomorrow might increase that percentage.
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Of course against him is that a Galileo bay has never won the Derby! Exemplar tomorrow might be interesting...
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Well looking back at the betting for King of Kings it seems they didn't rate his chances of staying highly so I suppose they could send another. Even though I remember the race it was a rare occasion when I had no financial interest in it and I'd forgotten he was so weak in the market and that Kinane chose to ride the well beaten Irish Guineas third instead. According to the comments King of Kings opened at 10/1 on track, which seems remarkable in retrospect. Personally though I just couldn't see them running one again with so little confidence in him staying unless they came up almost dry in the trials. In the current situation I think they'd want to be at least close to 50% sure and I don't think they are.
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No 5f sprinting dam has ever produced a derby winner. I do not expect that to change.
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group 1
17 May 17 21:28 Joined: 09 Sep 02 | Topic/replies: 12 | Blogger: group 1's blog No 5f sprinting dam has ever produced a derby winner. I do not expect that to change. Not the Epsom version but Laurel delight produced Cape Blanco who won the Irish derby |
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Let's face it, for all the debate about whether or not Churchill will run in the derby, from a purely sporting point of view it would be a shot in the arm for the race if he did run. People should want him to run, it makes it more interesting.
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Dante Stakes
Having already won over 12f, and with the Moulton Paddocks stable having a good line with both Cracksman and Cliffs Of Moher through Bay Of Poets, I would think Wolf Country will front run again and make this a real true test. It would appear Godolphin are expecting the Dubawi colt, Benbatl to improve for the step-up to 10f+ on easy ground, and with this being his third run in a short space of time and being unraced at two I would guess the Dante tomorrow is his Derby, and importantly he also ties in with Eminent’s form. Whereas Benbatl holds an entry in the St James's Palace Stakes, Best Solution has a Queen's Vase Stakes entry and I can’t help thinking the Kodiac colt with a stout middle distance female line is Saeed bin Suroor’s best chance come June. I think Crystal Ocean will run a promising race but the big step up in class will be too much too soon and he will be out of his comfort zone early in the straight. Exemplar is like a third-string and “new” Queens Vase type who has been late getting going having had a setback: he will be there to press for a consistent pace and to gain fitness for Royal Ascot. Permian is just another link for Godolphin in which to gauge the hyped-up/hype-down Cracksman and whatever else might perform well enough in the race to become a genuine contender for Epsom. Swiss Storm has been slow to come to hand, so I would not expect much of him first-time-out considering the going. Forest Ranger is not even entered in the Derby and I don’t think his Tapeta form will be anywhere near good enough here, and Syphax being by Arch out of a Kingmambo mare will probably be the most inconvenienced by the dramatic change in the going at York and Jamie Spencer will look out for his future. That leaves the widely underestimated Rekindling who I think has made a good deal progress from 2 to 3; will be spot-on tomorrow and will be suited to the ground conditions and the way the race will be run, and given he will have no problem staying 12f, I believe he will under the conditions put on quite a show, perhaps enough to dissuade Coolmore from running Churchill even. |
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As for Cracksman, I am not a fan unfortunately.
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Crystal Ocean fans - does it worry you not that Stoute did not think him worthy of an Eclipse entry? Maybe he sees him as a 12f colt and a 12f colt only? Meanwhile, this Valcartier continues to pick up the big dice entries from Johnny Gee. Quite looking forward to seeing him on Saturday.
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Also strikes me as a little odd that the main Godolphin colours have been bestowed upon a horse trained by an outside trainer ridden by an outside jockey in the Dante, when Camps 1 and 2 are represented. Is that a tip for Syphax or could we read too much into caps?
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Some interesting posts about Coolmore and the races they want to win.
My guess is they would be happy with two major horses a year, one to win the 2000 and St James Palace, the other the Epsom and Irish Derbys, and then either to take the Irish Champion Stakes. That would give them two new stallions with impressive race records that might or might not achieve greatness as sires. They would be happy with one top miler sire and one top middle distance sire every ten years, in the Sadler's Wells, Danehill, Galileo class. It is impossible to predict which sires will be the greats. Today I've ordered "Give a Man a Horse" by Dianne Haworth (revised) about New Zealand super sire Sir Tristram, who won two of nineteen starts. SIr Patrick Hogan picked him on pedigree, and probably wouldn't have bought him based on appearance. |
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Crystal Ocean. Will the annual bookmaker hyped, lightly raced, Sir Michael Stoute trained, talking horse finally come good?
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yep today is the day Kincsem, a number of bubbles will be burst, could potentially have a clear derby favorite by the end of the day, alternatively a bunched finish in the mud and no closer to knowing the result at Epsom in 16 days time. What ante-post betting is all about.
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I hope JG withdraws Cracksman. He said having a hard race on this ground at this time would be bad news so I wouldn't want him to win but lose his Derby here.
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Gosden on Cracksmans after the win of Shutter Speed in the Musidora. Gosden: "I'll tell you, since he won at Epsom, he has really come on," he said. "He is highly, highly professional. To be honest, I wish the Derby was tomorrow."
The ground at York is soft, and no rain since 10pm last night, and breezy sunshine forecast today. However, I do hope Cracksman does not run today too as he could leave his race behind at Epsom on 3rd June. |
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They obviously think he has a serious Derby chance when talking about swerving this race because of the effect it may have.
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n/r brilliant news.
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This crystal ocean gamble seems to have come to a screeching halt, 7/2 ante-post, day of the race and no Cracksman and you can back the horse at nearly 6/1 on here. Maybe its a ground thing aswell.
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Why is it that the multiple posters on here who think there is zero chance of Churchill running, let alone winning can't get his price above 7/1 between them?
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Interesting they are protecting a horse the owner thought might not win this race
 . Right decision. |
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Absolutely right decision. JG wished the Derby was today. That's good news.
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out to 9/1 with Patrick power and 10/1 on the sportsbook here ?
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^one and the same, aren't they?
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Why is it that the multiple posters on here who think there is zero chance of Churchill running, let alone winning can't get his price above 7/1 between them
I don't think he has a zero chance of running. I think he has a chance of running if CoM doesn't come out of his trial well, which could still happen. A 1 in 8 chance of running is around about right I'd say. The question should be as so many have said they think there's more chance he'll run than not, so an odds on chance to run, why is he still available at 7/1 to win? |
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brig there r the same most of the time but the sportsbook is currently 10/1 cracksman but have a winning bet then u cant get on
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If I am saying 'Churchill is more likely to run than not' it is only because of what AOB is doing and nothing to do with what I know. What I cannot believe is that the decision about his participation has anything at all to do with CoM. I think AOB will be making decisions about his best horse then any fall out from that will affect the rest. Not the other way around.
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and, no, i didn't bother reading any of it
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I guess AOB, to give him the benefit of the doubt, has decided to wait to see what the latest trials bring and the fact that Chester brought nothing has decided to wait until after today considering he has come this far. If that is what he is doing then if Exemplar doesn't win then I think Churchill will run. And if Churchill does run then that means he doesn't think any of his others are capable of winning in his absence. If Exemplar doesn't win and he doesn't run Churchill then, in my opinion, he is confirming everything I think about Coolmore.
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He may even announce it after the Dante.
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I think AOB will be making decisions about his best horse
So you think a trainer has an opinion on a horse's chances of staying in purely black and white terms? He will stay or he won't. Therefore he runs or he doesn't. You don't think the likes of Tabor, with his bookmaking background, think more in terms of odds and percentages? If they don't have any other credible runners for the Derby there is obviously more chance they'll consider the risk of running Churchill. There is nothing unbelievable about that, unless you think everyone else can only see things as you do. |
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Stoute has come out and said he doesn't think Crystal Ocean is a Derby horse "We have been bringing him along steadily and I doubt he is a Derby horse."
so it's hardly surprising he is friendless. I was always worried that Stoute would go softly, softly with him and aim at the King Edward (though I'm surprised he decided to run him in the Dante if that is the case??) as he did with the horses brother Hillstar so I've laid off my 40/1 bet at 14/1, as I have with my Eminent bet. Cracksman is now my biggest winner, though I have a few sheckles on Wolf Country at 210 so hopefully he runs well today. |
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ffs
Lay the Irish 2000? and, no, i didn't bother reading any of it Your response to my analysis of your debating skills reminds me of an Andrew Balding horse, Weigh Anchor. |
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Isn't that what punting is? I see things my way, you see things your way. Sometimes we agree sometimes we don't, what is wrong with that? I am putting down what I think and it is out there to be shot down. I am not coming on afterwards when decisions are made. I remember being slaughtered on here for thinking Australia would run in the Guineas based only upon what AOB had said well this time it is less clear but if AOB doesn't run Churchill for the reason that they don't think he will stay then I think that is unacceptable. And that is my opinion.
And if you think Coolmore are making decisions about anything other than what is best for horse racing then I hope you don't knock me when I say exactly that. |
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What I cannot believe is that the decision about his participation has anything at all to do with CoM
if Exemplar doesn't win then I think Churchill will run So let's get this straight. You cannot believe that the decision will have anything at all to do with CoM, who is currently Coolmore's no1 in the betting. However, you do think he might base the decision on how the current 33/1 shot Exemplar performs today. Now that is unbelievable! |