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Horse Antepost
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These 1576 comments are related to the topic:
Epsom Derby 2017
Epsom Derby 2017
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Madhu, yes you're probably right.
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Ffs you are positing tripe mate.
I don't think so - and as for the comments, well - what every breeder dreams about is producing something produces horses that make a lot of money. As for Derby winners - as opposed to 2000 / StJ winners - you have the rare exception, the Galileo, the Sea the Stars (both out of an Arc winner, mind, and with huge depth in pedigree) - but Sir Percy, Fame and Glory, Ruler of the World, Pour Moi, Motivator, Authorized - they haven't done much at all. Sir Percy - covered 98 mares .. compare that to something like Mahler at 237 Yes - when you look for Breed-Shaping Sires - it's important, but it's not commercial, not like the G1 Mile races |
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I know full well about Tesio, and Vincent, and so on ... you can argue the bigger picture of where the breed is going - but you can't argue that a lot of Derby winners throw up a lot of unwanted yearlings
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You can also argue that it's The Race - but Royal Ascot is the centerpiece and that's where more money is made by flying home winners, in front of the v wealthy, looking for a piece of that
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ffs you really are spouting gibberish.
Yes - when you look for Breed-Shaping Sires - it's important, but it's not commercial, not like the G1 Mile races Galileo is the most commercial sire in the world and you could add all of the profits from Giant's Causeway and Shamardal (Stud fees, prize money/earnings, yearlings sales blah, blah, blah.), both St. James's Palace Stakes winners, and it would still come up short in comparison to his holiness. I can’t make head or tail of your other convoluted separate postings but I remember from the past you do like to take up the whole page of threads. |
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That is what I don't get. You either think the horses will stay or you don't think the horse will stay. Irrespective of the opposition. If you think it stays then you must run that is a no brainer. Similarly, if you doubt it stays you cannot run. Waiting to see if you think it will stay is nonsense. Even if you allow for the quantity of runners AOB could have, which only shows the contempt to which British racing is treated by this group, the other runners are of good enough quality and potential stamina to ensure a proper test.
This can only be about control. Exhibiting the control they have over British racing for the sake of it. Nothing can have changed since the 2000 Guineas yet we still wait. It's disgusting and I am staggered how everyone accepts with situation with such pacifism. |
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Brig...you've said a few times now that running lots of horses in the Derby shows contempt. Can you explain? It's the exact opposite from where I'm standing. Magnier shows huge respect for the race and gives every horse that's earned the right to have a go his chance. Contempt would be not running horses, thereby showing disrespect for the race and choosing other options. Appreciate it might not suit your book but don't get your grumblings at all.
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TH I'm not saying running lots of horses in races shows contempt. What he is doing about Churchill, I believe shows contempt. Anyone who knows anything about horses knows they have already decided whether they think he stays. There is nothing they can do at home to alter that fact. They will probably do nothing different if he goes for the Irish 2000 or the Derby. Not letting the public know is treating us with contempt. What do you think they are waiting for that will change their view about whether he stays or not?
My point about Coolmore is the power they have and the way they use it. In the Gr1 races they enter a number of runners then you have to wait for them to decide. If those horses were trained by seperate trainers the whole emphasis would be different. Everyone knows you cannot find out who is best on the gallops. I believe they concentrate on training the horses that are best for their training operation and their pockets rather than what is best for horse racing. They have far too much power. Their actions have virtually destroyed a vibrant ante post market we would have if the Coolmore horses were trained by different trainers and owned by different owners. I cannot do anything about it but that doesn't mean I like it. |
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The fact is Coolmore has a monopoly on the Flat, thanks to the inept management and foresight of entities like Godolphin.
Does anyone believe CoM has an equal or better chance of winning this year's renewal as US Army Ranger last year who was unluckily thwarted by Harzand? I honestly believe not! The procrastination by Coolmore not saying yah or nay about the participation of Churchill here is because there is still over 2 weeks to the race; considerations of the welfare of CoM and other possibles; the weather, and events elsewhere. |
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**I meant breeding operation, not training operation.
I cannot have it that they are waiting for anything. They either believe he will stay, in which case he runs. Or they don't believe he will stay, in which case he doesn't run. As the trainer of CoM he is in the control of AOB etc so it is not as if they are waiting on the decision of another trainer ffs. There are no other possibilities. They either think he will stay or they do not. |
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1) The 1st question Coolmore will be asking is, which horse of theirs has the best chance of winning this race without Churchill ? At the moment probably CoM or Yucatan.
2) The 2nd question will be, will Churchill stay the Derby trip? Of course they think he'd stay the Derby trip - trainer had alluded to that in public post the 2000G victory. Do Coolmore need to make a decision now? The answer is an emphatic no. And if Churchill turns up, Moore will undoubtedly be onboard as he had alluded to that too post 2000G victory. If Churchill is running, will the services of CoM and/or Yucatan be required? Most probably at least one will not be eg CoM, deployment elsewhere eg French Derby - shorter trip - or the King Edward should Churchill win the Derby, otherwise Irish Derby and Churchill will go the Irish 2000G and St James's Palace. The utmost unknown is the unpredictability of the weather on Derby Day. |
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I think you have your questions the wrong way around. Will Churchill stay is by far the most significant question.
Do Coolmore need to make a decision? Yes they do. What their training schedule will change if they are training him for the Derby or the Irish 2000 Gns a week earlier, what the jockeys will be prepared for and lined up for, what their other runners will be trained for. I believe they have already made their decision and they made it some time ago. I understand the horse's well being and the weather are factors but the over riding decision is whether or not they believe he will stay. If they believe he will stay then he will run. |
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I believe Churchill on breeding has no chance of staying the derby trip. His dam was a sprinter, his grand dam the same and his great grand dam the same. The way he won the guineas to my eye, running with the choke full out says to me he is a miler.
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brigust, here you go:
Aidan O’Brien has described the prospects of his Qipco 2000 Guineas hero Churchill lining up in the Investec Derby at Epsom on 3 June as "only possible". Churchill gave O’Brien an eighth win in the opening Classic of the season when he saw off Barney Roy by a length on the Rowley Mile. His connections have yet to reveal whether Churchill will take up his entry at Epsom over a mile and a half or remain at a mile, here his upcoming targets would include the Irish 2,000 Guineas and the St James’s Palace Stakes. Sired by the all-conquering Galileo, Churchill’s pedigree is a mixture of speed and stamina, meaning that he’s uncertain to get the Derby trip, although his relaxed style of racing should aid his cause if connections go down that route. O’Brien indicated that owners Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith and John Magnier may wish to see how their representatives perform in Thursday’s Dante Stakes at York before arriving at a final decision, although they already have another leading fancy for Espom in the form of Cliff Of Moher. "I think only possible," was O’Brien’s assessment of Churchill’s participation at Epsom when he was interviewed on RTÉ 2fm’s Game On. "Probably the middle of this week is the time we have to decide, really, because towards the end of this week his work programmes will change if he’s going to the Derby. "Up to now he would have been doing the same things anyway, but like I said, probably from the middle of this week it will change. "The lads have to make their mind up now where they’re going to and I would think they probably want to see what’s going to happen in York, as well. |
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I'm sure given past experiences with the likes of Camelot and Australia Churchill's prep regime could already be in operation by now, accordingly.
His dosage of 0.76 indicates a good chance he'll stay; his trainer alluded to it and jockey indicated "there is no better ride in the Derby"; his temperament and manner of running also a positive. If so, more conundrum for him to digest. But I think, 10f could turn out to be his best trip similar to Minding. The ground condition could be the deciding factor, eventually. |
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I123,
towards the end of this week his work programmes will change if he’s going to the Derby |
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AOB was candid Churchill would stay the Derby trip in the interview with Lydia immediately post his 2000G victory.
Could Altior breed an Epsom Derby runner and/or winner in the future then? |
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High Chaparral was the better Derby winner - they were both good - I wouldn't say AO'B was candid, he said if asked he'd have the necc qualities, great mind etc..
But in reality, think about it - Group 1 winners is what he wants, it what 'the lads' want - two, Irish 2000, St James Palace Stakes up for the taking ... Anyone who wants a quick and easy Churchill bet can lay off the those two races, not only if he runs in Epsom he'll be a NR, but even still he has to go win them, so ... |
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Does anyone believe CoM has an equal or better chance of winning this year's renewal as US Army Ranger last year who was unluckily thwarted by Harzand? I honestly believe not!
Well in hindsight that USAR finished a close second then CoM's form obviously looks inferior, but going into the race USAR had only narrowly won a maiden and scraped home from his stablemate far from impressively at Chester. I think most honest punters would say CoM's form is, at the least, no worse. |
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What, lay Churchill at 7/1 (now) when if confirmed he'll likely be 7/4 or 2/1? Not a prudent move, I'd think.
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@figgis and some would say that US Army Ranger would never had won had it not been for a at best careful ride on port douglas when giving 4 pounds to the winner. If anything this form pre-derby was worse not better. And yet on the day US Army ranger rocked up to the derby was ridden out the back and ran on very strongly to be the best of the O'brien horses.
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shows that Chester is just a stepping stone, you don't win the derby there you prepare for it.
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Fallen Angel, exactly. I don't mind anyone putting up an argument against CoM's chances because they think his maiden win was overrated, etc, but these skewed hindsight comparisons are nonsense, and so is the suggestion that he'll go to France to make way for Churchill.
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The poster has also conveniently put himself in a no lose situation (at least on here anyway) by constantly carping about the chances of CoM at every opportunity but making sure he got it in that he'll make a profit if this overrated horse wins
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ffs
Apart from the fact that one horse is not representative, there was once a time that breeders wouldn't touch Galileo, even AO'B thought High Chaparral was the better Sire when Jim Bolger came looking - it wasn't Galileo's Derby win that made him the Sire he is, it's what he produced. As for HC, he has a good horse in Altior Your embellishment about Aidan O’Brien and High Chaparral is tripe. High Chaparral went to stud in 2004 as the Galileo yearlings came on the market, and the first crop three-year-olds of Montjeu excelled the very next year; through competition he was put to the side of the other “now” preferred sires. You are still spouting tripe ffs I'm afraid. |
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indeed, I am not suggesting the horse is phenomenal value at 6/1 or whatever you can take now but if you were on at 20s, 14s 12s or whatever then there is no need to panic. To me the price moves since Chester suggest that that he is the best of the Coolmore trial winners (excluding for the moment Churchill) and if the people connected with the stable feel differently then i would have expected to see it in the prices of the others by now.
Obviously he will need to improve for the run but clearly that has happened with other AOB chester runners, I remember thinking what an awful performance it was from USAR and that i had wasted the money i had on him. In the end he came on in leaps and bounds as many of them do for the yard when stepped into a group race. Obviously we can't know that for sure but if you were on before the Dee you have not taken too short a price (and are not paying too much of a premium for an expected improved run next time out). It was obviously the maiden win which got us all interested, hasn't exactly worked out as I hoped (would rather him be a 3/1 shot after hosing up  in the Dee) but there are plenty of historical precedents not to get too worked up and that's how im now looking at it. |
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At 1.9 for the Irish 2000G I'd be a buyer and not a seller; the St James's Palace is almost a cert to run given the gap. I'm nearly convinced Churchill will beat the other colts that took him on in the 2000G again as he did not look 100% there and was idling infront after taking it up 2f out.
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ffs your list of Galileo Stud Fees is was it is, well done for looking it up in such a short time to debate your side but High Chaparral was traveling to Windsor Park Stud, New Zealand and Montjeu was stopped in his tracks as a shuttle sire during this period.
Now you are a mate of Jim’s, give it a rest. Complete tripe merchant. |
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Complete tripe merchant - totally uncalled for, and you haven't the slightest idea what you're talking about. This is what makes internet forums such a waste - people like you who want to call names and have nothing of interest to add.
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fair enough, I think it's a reasonable hedge for anyone worried about Churchill ruining their Derby though
You're wasting your time ffs, he thinks Churchill is more likely to run at Epsom than not, it's virtually all he's talked about, yet still thinks he's a good bet for the Irish 2000 Guineas. What can you say? Must be pissed  |
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I don't even know what point you're trying to make !? except pick a fight and call names !?!? ... AO'B tried to recommend HC to JB, It's true - why don't you believe that, or what does it matter to you if you don't .. ? What difference does it make ... except it gives you, the keyboard warrior, something to shout about.
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ffs all this could only be construed as tripe.
As for Derby winners - as opposed to 2000 / StJ winners - you have the rare exception, the Galileo, the Sea the Stars (both out of an Arc winner, mind, and with huge depth in pedigree) - but Sir Percy, Fame and Glory, Ruler of the World, Pour Moi, Motivator, Authorized - they haven't done much at all. Sir Percy - covered 98 mares .. compare that to something like Mahler at 237 Yes - when you look for Breed-Shaping Sires - it's important, but it's not commercial, not like the G1 Mile races I know full well about Tesio, and Vincent, and so on ... you can argue the bigger picture of where the breed is going - but you can't argue that a lot of Derby winners throw up a lot of unwanted yearlings You can also argue that it's The Race - but Royal Ascot is the centerpiece and that's where more money is made by flying home winners, in front of the v wealthy, looking for a piece of that Apart from the fact that one horse is not representative, there was once a time that breeders wouldn't touch Galileo, even AO'B thought High Chaparral was the better Sire when Jim Bolger came looking - it wasn't Galileo's Derby win that made him the Sire he is, it's what he produced. As for HC, he has a good horse in Altior Madhu - do yourself a favour and treat the forum with more respect. You're an embarrassment, masquerading as someone with knowledge. Galileo Stud Fees, 2002 IRP 50,000 Ireland Coolmore Stud 2003 EUR 60,000 Ireland Coolmore Stud 2004 EUR 40,000 Ireland Coolmore Stud 2005 EUR 37,500 Ireland Coolmore Stud 2006 EUR 37,500 Ireland Coolmore Stud Go ask Jim Bolger - which Sire did AO'B recommend to him - I know because I heard him tell the whole story |
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I've ignored those posters who are quick to deliver personal insults and name calling; they are nothing but old fashioned, incapable of accepting alternative views and wholly insecure. Life is too short,...best to ignore and move on, that's my motto!
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ffs now you are putting tripe into my mouth because you have the inability to debate properly.
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