Yep, the_ace10, another reason why he's unlikely to go to the Derby, they're hardly the most able of substitutes.

In terms of dosage there is virtually nothing between Australia (0.67) and Churchill (0.76), and this year's 3yr old is significantly less able than 2014, I believe.

only 3 weeks to the derby after thurs,with the expected rain it may take a bit out of them to recover in time,backed cliffs of moher,sir john lavery,crystal music and mirage dancer anyway,hoping the winner is one of the 3 with lavery gone,as for churchill marco botti said today in the racing and football outlook he'd be surprised if he didnt run in the derby,remains to be seen..

They are taking a long time to decide and I cannot see what has changed. They clearly think this is possible and as yet they may not have seen anything from their side that is likely. Why take this amount of time if they doubt his stamina surely it only takes a moment?

Ask yourself why Coolmore throw every single dart they have at the Derby. They don't do that for the SJP do they?  It's not a vanity project, trust me.

The holy grail for decades now has been the stallion that imparts class and stamina into his progeny, especially as the breed (most mares) get faster and less stamina-laden.  Northern Dancer, Saddlers, now Galileo. The exception to the rule are those rare stallions that impart class (like Cape Cross and Pivotal) but defer to the dam on stamina grounds.  The SJP is a nothing race to Coolmore in the grand scheme of things.  Give them a Derby, Kentucky Derby or 2000 Guineas winner every time.  Other races (inc the Arc) are tailed off in stallion-making terms.

And why do you think the Derby is more commercial ??

It's not 'more' commercial in general breeding mid-low cheap speed terms (although neither is the SJP), because most breeders can't afford to tap in.  But it is when you're into stratospheric poa stallion fees...and the horse is backing up the stud fee.  These are the horses empires are built on.

In 2001 Galileo won the Derby.  The same year Black Minnaloushe, for the same outfit, won the SJP.  I'll give you the benefit of hindsight - which one would you have stood?

Do you have any experience of what you're talking about ??? Nobody wants at 1m4 stallion unless they are EXCEPTIONAL - i.e. also G1 over 1m, and they'll gladly take a 1m G1 horse w good looks over the 1m4

So, you can have Harzand for 15k EU, or The Gurkha - who was beaten in the St James Palace for a full 10k more ... I don't know it is a small sample, but I think 200 mares at 10k a go, that makes 2m EU, each year, seems worth it to me

Nobody wants at 1m4 stallion unless they are EXCEPTIONAL -

derby winners are exceptional by definition. Look at the stud record of Galileo and STS. Not every derby winner in that league of course but if you hit you hit big. And Derby is a famous race around the world- st james palace not in the same category. Of course the prevalence is towards speed now but if you say the horse is by a derby winner that still holds more weight in the sales ring than saying it's by a royal ascot winner.

Getting the feeling that this race is almost overanalysed on this forum now. A lot of people digging themselves deeper and deeper into positions. A bunker mentality is prevailing.

Don't see how you can be that confident about Churchill not turning up at the Derby. All you really have to go on is his pedigree. 2000 guineas is the best trial for the derby, traditionally. He might not run, (only coolmore know after all) but don't see why anyone can really be that bullish about it- it's almost as if you don't want him to run as it would ruin positions and you fear him.

I think Coolmore are doing just fine - they an amazing band of broodmares and if your problem is simply looking for an outcross, well that's what you call one of those good problems

To keep up their outstanding record they could use an heir to the throne - but getting Churchill to win the Derby won't do that - something will have to start producing an unreal amount of G1 talent.

Why wait until after the Dante? They will know now whether they think he will stay or not irrespective of the Dante. You have to think that he runs. It's a no-brainer surely? Stamina isn't based upon time or an extra week. Stamina is surely a fixed commodity, you either have it or you don't.
If Churchill runs I don't think it will be based on anything other than his well being. They wanted a week to test his well being, maybe give him a leg stretch the announce that he runs. Buying the extra week simply to check whether or not there is a top class opponent in their own stable or elsewhere is just housekeeping. They knew before the 2000 Guineas whether they thought he would run in the Derby.
When was the last horse who it took this long to make a decision about and then never ran? Was Frankel ever going to run in the Derby after winning the 2000 Gns?

"You mean exclude good sires such as Canford Cliffs, Mastercraftsman, Henrythenavigator, ... I mean I could go on forever"

Is this supposed to be funny?  I don't think Big John is laughing

Anyone who wants a quick bet on Churchill - there's money to be had laying him in the Irish 2000 and St James

They know now what they think and that is a fact

Agreed.

They clearly think he has every chance of staying

no matter who won any race would change that belief

But that argument can be used the other way. If they really think he'll stay and intend to run, why wait?

They clearly think he has every chance of staying

There's no evidence that they do.

It's not like they don't have form for this. Only this year they were going to run Caravaggio in the French Guineas, right up to the week he was due to run. Now he's gonna be kept to sprints.

Ffs you are positing tripe mate.

Do you have any experience of what you're talking about ??? Nobody wants at 1m4 stallion unless they are EXCEPTIONAL - i.e. also G1 over 1m, and they'll gladly take a 1m G1 horse w good looks over the 1m4


Aidan O’Brien 

‘The whole thoroughbred breed hinges on the Derby. It’s what racing is about for everyone working in stables and on studs.’

"Epsom is the complete test of a horse. They need balance, speed and stamina. It's uphill, downhill, sideways. It's a very intense atmosphere," says the trainer.

"All these horses are bred and reared to turn up in the Derby," he said. "The Derby is the race that distinguishes the breed, so it's very hard, if they're well, not to let them take their chance. But that won't be my decision. They're all on that Derby road at the moment and, closer to the time, the boys [the partners in the Coolmore bloodstock operation] will decide that."

It’s everything about the Derby; it’s the ultimate test of the thoroughbred. It’s what everybody that breeds a horse dreams that it could turn up in the Derby. It’s the ultimate test – you have to have speed, stamina, agility and temperament – it takes it all to win the Investec Derby.

John Magnier

“Somebody alluded only this week to Tesio’s quote about the relevance of the Derby, saying that it has been that piece of wood, the winning post of the Epsom Derby, that has influenced the selection process that has led to the breeding of the thoroughbred. He was right, Vincent [O’Brien] was right.”

O’Brien trained the winners of six Derbies at Epsom, astutely recruiting the horses (and their wealthy owners) to run there. “In Vincent’s time the Derby was the centre of the year, it was the race,” Magnier said

“Maybe, it has lost some of its gloss, but it is the race where all the qualities of a colt are tested. We continue to support it, and run as many as we can, because of this. We run those we feel are entitled to run. It’s a chance for them to prove themselves,”

“I know there are some people, who would like to see it run over a mile and a quarter, but they did that in France, and I don’t think it has improved the French Derby. I’m sure that was a mistake.

“In the United States, they permit geldings to run in their [Kentucky] Derby, but that’s giving the geldings an unfair advantage. They have usually been gelded because there is a mental frailty there. After gelding they are easier to train. Theirs is not a pure Classic like Epsom. The Derby at Epsom has got history and tradition – all people have to do is leave it alone,” he argued.

I think to take Tabor at his word when asked if the horse would run at Epsom "Let's see, something could stick its neck out tomorrow (Derrinstown)"

So, even if they are not obliged to comment any way - ofc we'd like some clarity, but it's not in their interest, necessarily.

Personally, I just think he skips it and I don't have any doubt, especially since CoM gave them a real contender - even without that they don't need to win every Derby - and you still have the Derrinstown trio, the Vase trio .. plenty.

Plus, I think the best thing for the horse is to let him win the races he's most likely to win - thereby maximising G1 winners and his Stud Value,


BUT - they could be assesing CoM et al to get an idea if they are toying with the idea. Again though, in a perverse way they've captivated the imagination by saying nothing, even if it is a definitive NO.

they did that in France, and I don’t think it has improved the French Derby. I’m sure that was a mistake

He's dead right there.