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Horse Antepost
Epsom Derby 2017
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1) Call To Mind: rated 36; the horse he beat was comprehensively beaten on his 1st start. (non-entity/discard).
2) Wolf Country: rated 90: last season finished behind Glencadam Glory (beaten by Best Solution in the worst Derby trial, The Anvil and Okool - (non-entity/discard, a miracle if Derby standard) 3) Valcartier: trained by Gosden (Cracksman); beat a horse rated 76; comprehensively beaten by Mirage Dancer last season (non-entity/discard). 4) Forest Ranger: rated 94; beat a horse rated 79; claimed to fame beating Syphax (average juvenile form) on artificial turf; dosage figures suggest unlikely to stay 12f. 5) Contrapposto: rated 92; comprehensively beaten by Rivet and Eminent when up in class. Even in this year's renewal I'd struggle to contemplate backing any of them come Derby day. |
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I heard from a man close to AO'b all number of things - not to be aired publicly - but when the issue of Cliffs of Moher came up he couldn't have been more enthusiastic ...
I know from experience the last person to take a tip from is the trainer, as to do what they do they have to believe in their horses ... but the vibes were very good - that he finished strongly (thought previously that 1m2 was he trip), that he'll come on leaps and bounds, he's going there as the probable no1 |
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*Ballydoyle No1* i.e. Ryan Moore - obv not the absolute No1, no one knows what that will be yet ...
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@ffs, that appears to have been bourne out by the betting the last couple of days. Cliffs was weak up until yesterday but came in for strong support throughout yesterday. At the same time Churchill has been noticeably easier to back.
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ffs, old news mate and well put out there by all accounts by Joseph O'Brien on his ****.com blog recently. Is this bloke close enough for you?
The Derby has a very open look to it this year, there isn’t a standout colt at present. My father saddled three nice colts to fill the placings in the Chester Vase, while Cliffs Of Moher impressed me in the Dee Stakes. Dad mentioned afterwards that he’s the colt that might improve the most from the trials. I noticed that **** made him Derby favourite afterwards and I think he’ll have a big say on June 3rd. |
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One reasonable question to ask of CoM backer: why did AOB choose to run CoM in the Dee Stakes instead of the Chester Vase ie the race that US Army Ranger ran in last year? It could not have been the date of race and the course unless AOB had reservation of his stamina, matureness and/or ability. Could he have the French Derby as an alternative given a shorter distance?
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Ballydoyle might run 3, they might run 4, (VB, Com, Yucatan, and one more, Capri / Douglas Macarthur / something from the Dante), but the French Derby is not on the cards after CoM finished out the extended 1m2 very well, and nothing came on in the Derrinstown.
Wonder if Mr Oppenheimer has his eyes on a Royal Ascot raid ??? |
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Thank-you.
If CoM was a certain runner and AOB's 1st string connections would have steamed into his price post the Dee Stakes. This stable is renowned for backing their horses prior to and on race day eg Winter and Churchill, so far. As such, despite my antepost cover bets at 10/1 and 8/1, I'm still unconvinced neither his participation nor stable status. But I hope he turns up or Churchill does, either way a sure winner for me. VB and Capri could be candidate for the French equivalent given their market behaviour here. |
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The concerns around the possible stamina limitations were a matter of public record before the dee stakes. As impossible notes he wasn't particularly strong in the day after the race, having initially shortened before hand. Over the weekend he could be backed at a bigger price than before the race, however on monday that begun to change and COM is back to ante-post favourite on here. That hasn't quite been born out by bookie prices yet as the picture is still clouded by Churchill. To be fair liquidity is fairly limited so its difficult to say with any certainty what the market moves actually mean.
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From this
1) CoM will be scratched from the Epsom Derby because of the participation of Churchill; inexperience; immaturity, and still a horse-in-progress. 2) should CoM run, either Cracksmans, Yucatan, Mirage Dancer and Churchill (runs/not soft ground) will finish infront of him To this my antepost cover bets at 10/1 and 8/1... a sure winner for me A prior ante post rabbit is suddenly pulled out of the hat a day later  |
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This only goes to cement my views on the damage Coolmore are doing to racing. Had the fancied contenders namely Churchill, Cliffs of Moher, Yucatan, Venice Beach, Exemplar, Douglas MacArthur, Capri, Orderofthegarter, Sir John Lavery and The Anvil to name but a few been shared out between the other top trainers we would have a much clearer picture about what was running and in the end who the best horse is. Deciding at Ballydoyle on the gallops and for certain breeding purposes is not good for racing and makes a mockery of the ante post market. It is something I have been against for many years. Many top trainers would be proud to train any of these horses and give them every chance to achieve their full potential.
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I believe CoM's price contraction is influenced by the non-upbeat soundbite from connections of Cracksman, and not the yah/nay participation of Churchill who is presently still shorter than prior to the Dee Stakes. Without meaning to be a party pooper I do not envisage an enlightening Dante from the race and/or where the betting market is concerned.
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There is very little liquidity on here I believe we will hear from the bookies first this time.
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Low liquidity helps if one is a buyer here, I find.
CoM at about 7 here may turn out to be a good lay especially if Cracksman excels on thursday; if the reverse is true CoM will be shorter (further lay perhaps) as he could be rerouted. I'd like to see some stable interest on Eminent. |
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The chances of CoM being rerouted must be about 20/1 unless he has a setback, which could happen to any of them. If he remains well he runs, regardless of whether the Guineas winner runs or not. No doubt imp will reveal if he has laid him or not after the event.
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I'm not so sure. I think Com will benefit from give and if Churchill runs could be saved for the Irish Derby. I don't think his form is good enough to win an average Derby plus he may need more time.
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Any info on THUNDER SNOW - a very interesting possible - I see he's back home and Sin nominated the Irish 2000 as a possible ??
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I don't think his form is good enough to win an average Derby
So which horses is he up against who you think have shown form good enough to win an average Derby? |
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I think Com will benefit from give
In most years in this era the ground is well watered at Epsom. Nevertheless, on what basis will he benefit from give? |
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doubt COM will still be fav after Thursday
derby crying out for an impressive trial winner- given the strength of the dante this year I doubt it'll disappoint |
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It's hardly going to be rattling fast anyway, plus a good surface will help see him home. I don't think he has any chinks, if there's one good enough to beat him so be it, but atm he's a worthy fav
No info on Thunder Snow ??? Interesting Q - all-things-equal re Dante, what price CoM if Churchill withdrawn due to CoM being the No1 ??? |
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Beating Bay if Poets, Max Zorin and Mirage Dancer is not Derby form. You may think that he has bags of improvement in him but there is no evidence that is true it is just your opinion.
The way he ran at Chester showed quite clearly he wasn't a quick horse so the slower the ground and the stronger the pace would inconvenience others but suit him. |
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You may think that he has bags of improvement in him but there is no evidence that is true it is just your opinion
I have already stated it is just my opinion, that's all it can be at this stage, I've said I could be wrong. I ask you again, so which horses is he up against who you think have shown form good enough to win an average Derby? |
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You are basing all of your opinions on what you believe AOB and even Ryan Moore thinks. None of it is based in fact.
I believe Churchill, Venice Beach, Eminent, Yucatan and Best Solution have all shown better form than CoM to name but a few. |
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until they run at the highest level we've little idea of just how good a horse's best is. apart from those that ran in the Guineas none of the runners have shown form good enough to win a Derby - but they may well be good enough when it comes to the day.
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On the COM subject, most of O'Brien's derby winners in recent years were considered quick enough to run in the 2000 guineas beforehand (Ruler of the world being an exception)
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If anyone tells you - this thing is a Sure Thing - run a mile. They are not machines, but a lot can be predicted by studying the patterns and reading the history - not enough that you never back a loser, but more than enough to make money
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CoM was most certainly not an outstanding 2yo - unless wining a maiden is how you define outstanding
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and all evidence points to him going up a lot.
Surely it's conjecture that points to him going up a lot, rather than evidence. There's no overwhelming evidence that COM is going to come on in leaps and bounds. Actually Venice Beach has just as good credentials but has been largely overlooked |
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ffs did you ever post on another forum as Zarkava?
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most of O'Brien's derby winners in recent years were considered quick enough to run in the 2000 guineas beforehand
2 from 3 is hardly a big sample - go back further Galileo and High Chapparal weren't guineas runners |
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It's not just opinion, the belief about Cliffs of Moher is based on Supposition, Inference, Logical Reasoning.
you forgot to mention guessing |
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If the ground comes up soft which could be likely CoM's stamina will be put to the utmost test. If so, I hope to get better value elsewhere but mainly from the Irish trials.
I certainly would not call CoM an outstanding 2 yr old: he beat Orderofthegarter on an off day (no world beater or The Gurkha) who beat a "pig" called Taj Mahal. That form is even inferior to US Army Ranger! |