You are basing all of your opinions on what you believe AOB and even Ryan Moore thinks

I have no real idea what O'Brien and Moore really think of the horse. As for what jockeys think in general I have close to zero interest. As to what O'Brien thinks, well it seems like they didn't think a huge deal of him last year, or he wouldn't have been easy to back against his stablemate. My opinion is based on his performance in his maiden, which is obvious to anyone who has read the posts. I thought they might go the Irish Guineas route with him, which didn't hold much interest for me but as soon as I knew the Derby was the plan I got involved.

I believe Churchill, Venice Beach, Eminent, Yucatan and Best Solution have all shown better form than CoM to name but a few.

Churchill's form is obviously better but he's a doubtful runner and even if he does run he's a doubtful stayer. The form of Eminent could be argued as better, not that I'd agree. The form of the others is only better if you rate horses on the class of race they've run in and if you don't believe a horse can put up a better performance by beating worse horses easily in a maiden.

Regardless of any of that, the point wasn't whether Cliffs of Moher will win the Derby, it was that he may be rerouted because he hasn't shown form good enough to win the Derby. This despite the fact none of the others (the likely stayers) have shown form good enough to win a Derby. We are expected to believe that Coolmore will change their plans because of this?

I know horses can improve Figgis and I know trainers and jockeys sway punters and the betting but I wouldn't mind betting if you looked at CoM completely oblivious of trainers and jockeys but simply on what he had achieved on the track CoM would not be in your first six. That is my point. A lot of what is going on is not based upon what the horse has achieved but what others believe he could achieve.

My point about the Irish Derby is that if they run Churchill they will run him because they think he will win. They will not then go for the Irish Derby because that is a completely different task. Given that CoM looked backward and was according to AOB having a rushed preparation then the logical conclusion, if they hold him in the regard you think they do, was to save him and give him more time for the Irish Derby.

if you looked at CoM completely oblivious of trainers and jockeys but simply on what he had achieved on the track CoM would not be in your first six

Purely on what he has achieved on the track I have him joint second after Churchill. If Churchill runs, stays and wins, so be it, I would always be against this type of runner at a short price, even if some of them pop up once in a while.

Frankie on The One Show now to talk about the Derby.

Sorry that is not possible. Even on the bare form

Brigust, I know you may find this impossible but not everyone reads form like you do

Don't say that unc . Shame about him later though.

I'm a stoute zombie meself

DANTE:
I'm sure Rekindling will run a very solid, reliable race. The only horse who doesn't need to improve to beat him, on my figures at least, is Benbatl. However, I have serious doubts about this horse's stamina. Pedigree is inconclusive for 10f (though 12 would have to be a worry). The real concern is that he didn't settle for 3 furlongs in the Craven despite Rivet going a decent gallop. They won't be going any faster than that here so you'd have to worry about his seeing out the trip under those circumstances especially on softer ground (though it's one of those paradoxical scenarios where he will enjoy the softer turf). Having said all that, his price at present is very generous, and he's had a month off. If he goes in the right direction on his third start, he must run a big race.
Cracksman has to improve significantly and Crystal Ocean massively to beat Rekindling in my book, but both are clearly open to such progress, Cracksman my preference due to his more meaningful test lto and what I believe was a well above average speed figure on debut, a galloping test which will be replicated here. Stoute's inmate could be anything but I'm prepared to oppose him under the circumstances - too big a leap in what seems to me a very good Dante.
Exemplar could improve plenty at 3, like his half sister Blue Bunting, and clearly he will stay, but I have him just short of the aforementioned.
Of the others, Wolf Country and Forest Ranger have a bit to find but I wouldn't be surprised if they ran well, especially if the ground goes really soft.
It's a fascinating renewal and if i can get Cracksman, Rekindling and Benbatl on side at evens, I'll have a bet.

Surprised you rate Rekindling up with Benbatl, Howellsy. Are you rating him on the Ballysax?

It is clear the 2nd horse, through the 3rd horse, ran nearly a stone below form.

It may be clear to you, you may be right, however that's not the way I read it. I believe on some days some horses happen to run far better than they usually do. Just like I've seen tennis players, football teams, etc, perform far above their average level at certain times. I don't buy into horses repeatedly running to their mark, whatever that is.

Figgis
16 May 17 19:34
Joined: 28 Sep 04 | Topic/replies: 6,569 | Blogger: Figgis's blog
LR, are you still keeping the faith with him? Had a pretty disappointing time of it the last few years, probably since Harbinger I'd say.

Yeah that's a good point. He doesn't seem to get the great horses anymore. I have the same view of Bin Suroor and in my opinion they send the duds to Saeed and the good horses to Appleby, that's just my view anyway. Which makes Wolf Country interesting for this. I'd much rather back him than Benbatl.

But for my money the forgotten horse of the Dante is Swiss Storm. Huge horse so could be anything as a three year old. I recall after he won at Newbury there was a lot of talk about him which has waned in recent months. Yet he hasn't raced since.

Huge galloping type so York should be ideal. The concern would be the trip, his half siblings were mainly sprinters. He did have a half brother Lugano who won over a mile and a half and he was by Galileo, so it's encouraging that Swiss Storm is bred along the same lines, my guess is based on his running style and the trainer he should stay beyond a mile no problem, I guess we'll learn a lot more on Thursday but he would be my choice out of the many Godolphin horses being thrown at the race.

the many Godolphin horses being thrown at the race

Yes they're targeting this race like it is the Derby. Although looking at how they've performed in recent times, for them it probably is

Howellsy, oh, just wondered if you'd clocked something I'd missed.

I know several on here go by speed figures ffs where I rely only on form. Quite a few wowed about Kingsman speed figures but he had the best form anyway. Also I don't bet in handicaps where I guess speed figures may be more relevant but I have never seen or heard of any evidence to support that. I still think with watering and the nuances of individual tracks plus the tactical way races are sometimes run mean speed figures are not for me. It's hard enough to spot the best part of the course to race on.

His form, Kingman's, was nearly good enough to win a Guineas but I was on a mission with Australia at the time so wasn't really interested.

Somehow, with your way of reading form, I can't see you saying that beating a 40/1 shot in a maiden was near Guineas winning form.

Let's say Churchill does go for the derby who does o Brien line up in these other races with to win them