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Horse Antepost
Epsom Derby 2017
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You are right Sankara we are just treading water until Aiden consents to tell us who is running in this race. Hope it won't be too long.
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That only goes to confirm my point, which I have repeated several times, that one trainer being in control of so many possible contenders is bad for horse racing.
That is the point, you keep on repeating it but there's sweet FA anyone can do about it whether they like it or not, it's the market situation. Unless you want to put a syndicate together that compete. There are plenty of things to complain about in racing that can be changed. For instance trainers and jockeys should be contracted to give interviews as managers are in football. Thereby making them open to criticism instead of spitting their dummies, so enabling decent media coverage, instead of the bland offering we get. |
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That's got the makings of a good idea Figgis. I also think media representatives should not be afraid to point out when a jockey or/ and trainer gets it wrong, in their opinion, just as they do in football etc. I was surprised when they openly discussed the possibility of a Coolmore 'plan' in the 2000 Guineas on the Sunday forum which was vigorously protested against by the Irish representative.
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I also think media representatives should not be afraid to point out when a jockey or/ and trainer gets it wrong, in their opinion, just as they do in football etc
Exactly. A while ago Alex Steedman made a comment about Luke Morris' whip action and it was perfectly valid. How he gets away with that proves the rules don't matter. Morris retorted something along the lines that he wouldn't be doing any interviews for him. Pathetic, and it should not be allowed. If they were forced to interviews by the BHA, as I believe they should be, the presenters and pundits wouldn't need to walk on eggshells for fear of offending them. |
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Mirage Dancer has been backed just recently, decision made perhaps.
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Just how good was the Dante form?
On collateral ratings I would have to make Permian no better than 111 going down to 7th place. Adding something for the standard of the race (which worries me) then I couldn't give it more than another 5lb which means that it has to find another 8-10lb to win an average Derby. The time rating depends on whether I take the distance as given (10f 56 yds). On a day when there were more than a few withdrawn because of the state of the ground its rather odd to see that Permian's time was just 1.40 secs slow vs RP standard. And even more odd was that Here Comes When beat RP standard by 0.14 secs which just doesn't tally with good to soft let alone soft ground.The drainage and bend improvements were first implemented in 2010 so I can't see that an explanation is to be found there. Anyway, working with the times given (verified) and distances given (not verified) then its not possible to use a soft ground going allowance consistent with the jockeys description. That aside, I am putting a rating of 109 on final time plus 4 lbs for finishing pace. If I'm right, then I am not going overboard about Parmians chance which also means that Cracksman is also below what I am looking for at this stage. Put another way, both have to improve quite a bit. An open race this year imo. Room for a big late improver still. Feel free to disagree. |
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Suggests there might well be some contraction in the prices from current levels
I'm sure that'll happen Fallen Angel. People have been waiting for an Authorized type trial performance, something that appears obvious to everyone, in the absence of that the market has been lukewarm. While we're not going to get a very short priced fav, I can see those towards the head of the market tightening up. |
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S the trip for the Dante was 32 yards shorter than the Musidora. According to the clerk of the course.
I agree Cracksman has to improve on known form and JG seems to be saying he has. It is not inconceivable given the way the Epsom race was tun and the lak of confidence JG had about his chances at that time. |
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* run * lack
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Sandown, that is incorrect info. The 32yds is only the difference between the former description of the distance and the current one, as you're probably aware.
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brigust1
I backed Cracksman at Epsom and thought that I had done my money as Dettori did his best to get the horse beaten. Permian got first run but over further I would take Cracksman to beat him again. He was easily the paddock pick and looked fit enough. He has a somewhat strange action (near fore splayed?). It didn't feel like Derby form at the time. P.S. I've adjusted for actual claimed distances of all races |
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I have the Dante as a poor renewal, around 15lbs short of what I'd call an ordinary Derby winner, such as Harzand. Cracksman could be much better than the short head he beat Permian at Epsom, but I think he'd need to be about 8 lengths better to win an average Derby. Of course it could turn out to be a pretty poor Derby with a much less than average performance needed to win it. We usually get one or two running much better than expected though so I doubt it'll turn out to be quite as weak as it might look at the moment.
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Figgis.
Agree with it being sub-standard. I put it in the same bracket as Bonfire,Black Bear Island,Libertarian,Septimus, Dilshaan. I couldn't in all honesty back it to win the Derby. |
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I suppose there is a chance that Benbatl didn't stay quite as well as he got the mile but it looked like he did to me. In hindsight of his run and the performance of Eminent in the Guineas I'm more inclined to believe I overrated the Craven form by a few pounds.
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He has a high knee action S and dishes his near fore but I think Epsom will be well watered so hopefully no excuses in that regard. Eminent really should be more highly rated. He won the Craven going away and Rivet and Benbatl didn't do the form much harm. That's Gr1 form with Rivet and Gr1 form in the Guineas which was apparently not run to suit. Not many others offer Gr1 form this season.
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how do you know crystal ocean is out of the derby?
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Stoute said so!
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he did but the owner is keen to run and they have had a lot of money on it before the dante
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ok, that's for the reply, i have backed him, so i would like a run for my few euro's, but that's the beauty of antepost betting. I taught he was the one to take from the dante. Yes the owner is not short of a few euro that's for sure, so hopefully he'll run.
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Dubai Thunder, another one of Godolphin, thumped his nearest rival (a 35 rated beast) by 10l earlier and is as short as 12/1 (20/1 best), Sheikh Mo's money or bookies red herring (again)?
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I am not saying Eminent was unlucky ffs, but conceived wisdom is that the wide horses, and he raced widest, were inconvenienced by that. The fact that the AOB team, and we know they plan things properly, kept to the stands side, protected their favourite and then when he dashed for the rail kept them all in the middle of the course will only add to that. I believe they knew that was the place to be and it therefore goes that where Eminent raced was not the place to be. He certainly would not have won or even been placed but, until we know otherwise, this was arguably the best trial so his backers can at least be hopeful.
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@Figgis, yes the front two in the market need to shorten up by at least a point on here for it to not be hugely under-round. The issue of 100s of non-runners blows out the book to percentage to make it look healthier than it actually. Obviously this creates an opportunity if inclined to take it up. While on paper it says 126% i had it at around 88% even now. I've been on COM for ages now but just on the figures both him and possibly Cracksman should be more like 4/1 mirroring the books rather than the 5/1 on here. I included Dubai Thunder in my most recent derby final group and he's not a certain runner.
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On Eminent, regards the Derby trip, Frankel / Kingmambo - nothing wrong with that,
And, 150,000gns Y; second foal; half-brother to 6f winner As Good As Gold (RPR 86); dam 7f 2yo winner/Fillies'Mile third (104), half-sister to 1m2f Gr 1 winner Diamondsandrubies out of 7f Moyglare Stud winner/Irish 1,000, Oaks and Irish Oaks second Amazing he didn't cost more ... |
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ffs...I'll accept the challenge. I do like Eminent - the class horse - but 'll go with Cracksman solely on his missing the Dante and upbeat soundbite from Gosden.
Just to recap: My Cracksman against your Cliffs Of Moher, and nrnb. |
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I don't know if this makes sense to everyone, but to me Eminent was just caught for toe in the 2000, and while a stronger run race would have suited him to win that race, he may have more than enough finishing speed for the Derby. The races are chalk and cheese.
Consider aswell that at least one of the trial winners for the 2000 was going to be left flat, and it may have been him. Interesting runner, no doubt. |
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It could be said that Eminent would've benefited from a stronger pace in the Guineas but he wasn't finishing particularly fast compared to those in front of him. The idea that he could've been better off a stronger pace comes from what he did in the Craven, but there has to be a suspicion now that the performance isn't as good as it looked at the time. Rivet has been a consistent horse but definitely a substandard RPT winner. Benbatl ran well in the Dante but that is also substandard form for the race. The third and fourth in the Craven have done little since to endorse the form.
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Sorry, should've said fourth and fifth in the Craven.
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That said, whether the Craven was overrated or not his form still puts him ahead of the Dante runners, providing he stays further. It depends on if you think form slightly above the Dante standard will prove good enough to win this year's Derby.
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Obviously I don't know for sure if Eminent will stay but just on how he won over a mile as a 2yo I would have him as a likely stayer. I wouldn't say he'll be better over longer, but might be seen to better effect as races become less competitive as they step up in trip. At first I had him on a lower rating on his Guineas run compared to his Craven win. I thought that was due either to him not being suited by the early pace or more likely because he ran a bit flat after his Craven effort. Since then I've reconsidered the Craven form and rightly or wrongly decided to downgrade it. I have now rated his Guineas run a 3lbs improvement. Strictly on what he's achieved so far I'd have him as second in the betting. Although it has to be taken into account that he's already had a couple of hard races in a short space of time so that probably isn't an ideal prep.
I've seen a few poor Derbys in the past but I'd still be really disappointed if running 6th in a Guineas (a Guineas that in my opinion was competitive but below par) proved good enough this year. Usually one or two up their game on the big day and sometimes it's not the ones you expect. |
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A short aside, I hope you made hay with Hawkbill today Figgis. I remember we had a disagreement about his ability to win, I think it was the King George, and you were all over him. He didn't run that day but this was a much easier task today and I think he was a similar price. Happy days.
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No, I didn't have a bet in the race, brigust, prefer to see how they go on from 3 to 4 first. He did it well though.
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for me with so many unknowns surely the safest play is venice beach each way.
surely it can't be far away from the places and if it's anything like as good as it's halfsister, it might well hack up. |
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would not back a frankel they don't seem to show much improvement
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At the moment it looks like we're probably going to get a big field. I was hoping it would cut up a bit as even though I'm a fan of Moore in general I've not been a fan of how he rides this race, and sometimes the Oaks. Usually seems intent on taking a pull and dropping his horse out at the back whatever the pace. Found trouble in running on USAR and Carlton House, not that they would've won anyway, also found trouble with Minding and Snow Fairy but they were good enough to win despite that. It's rare that most of the runners set off at too fast a pace so I don't see the need to be out at the very back. You might get some crazy tearaway tactics on a Coolmore pacemaker but they are usually ignored anyway. When dropping a horse out at the back there is always more chance you'll get a troubled passage, then the horse has to be frantically ridden late on to make up for lost time. Ruler of the World and Workforce ran below par next time after making up a lot of ground late, arguably USAR was never the same again.
Sure, he's never been beat on one that should've won and it hasn't put me off backing his mount. I just think it makes things unnecessarily difficult. I prefer the Piggott method of getting a good break then dropping in reasonably handily. |
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I hope there is a good pace and they can separate the wheat from the chaff. If Frankie stays handy and allows him to use his stride there shouldn't be any excuses. I don't think the Irish horses are up to much and expect it to be fought out by the English horses.
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