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~~ Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2016 ~~
~~ Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2016 ~~
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Sorry but I don't "fancy" horses. I work with probalities and prices. Any horse that runs has some sort of chance, some more than others.What I play and how much I stake depends on that relationship.LC has its chance and a price.For me LC is a saver in my book.
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thats good for handicaps, elite races no, 3/4 of the field in the Arc have zero chance.
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In the french 1000G Alice Springs was on the far side and level with La Cressonniere (nearside) about two lengths behind the pacesetter with Qemah tucked in behind about another two length behind these two horses in the centre; at the 2f marker when the race was in earnest, Qemah quicken and came within 3/4 of a length of La Cressonniere at the furlong marker where the latter powered on again to win by a cosy one length (at least).
I do not think there could be any excuse for Qemah in the french 1000G as she was beaten by La Cressonniere, another filly who could quicken and outstay her. |
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one etc
[i]thats good for handicaps, elite races no, You show your ignorance with that comment. Do you bet professionally, I wonder? If you do, I wouldn't fancy your chances of doing it for long 3/4 of the field in the Arc have zero chance. [/i] I doubt if that will be true this year. For the record, 7 of the past 25 winners have been fifth fav or greater. If your research is as good as you claim then you should be aware of the past history of the race where there have been any number of long price winners. |
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I'd be worried if the 'fav' or near 'fav'/fancied runners in the betting market were from either Britain or Ireland because come 'Arc' day these runners would have had a tough campaign already eg those from Coolmore, unlike the french horses. Hence, the connections of Harzand - the Aga Khan and not Godolphin - only had two proper races ie the derbies, are wised to it.
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In the past 33 years , 11 of the Arc winners have been priced in double figures. A generalisation that 3/4 runners have zero chance is both a theoretical nonsense as well as not being supported by the evidence.
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position in the market doesnt mean anything, theres been numerous horses in the top 5 in the betting over the last few years who I have considered to have no chance of winning
when I say 3/4 of the field have no chance, I mean 3/4 of the field are outclassed, I didnt say the market will be 100% correct, Treve went off 11/1 when she was the best horse in the race, a lot of factors determine the price but class always rises in the race, there is also a massive over emphasis on the draw in the race which means outclassed animals with low draws get considered while class horses drawn wide are overpriced, no horse has ever won the Arc because it had a good draw |
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Impossible
Form in races over 8f, against 3 yr old fillies especially, in the Spring will have little relevance to races over 12f in October so I wouldn't waste time building any case on such doubtful foundations. |
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Sandown
Accepted,...great shame connections of LC chose to take the La Nonette route rather than the Vermeille, but then again a bigger (winning) price for her backers. For what is worth, my 4 for this race are Harzand, La Cressonniere, Order Of St George and Postponed in that order (hopefully). |
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I love the enthusiam for LC and will have a decent saver on her at 8/1.
Still think Harzand on softish ground is the one to beat if he's 100%, and 7/1 seems way too big given his profile, though I hope they don't run in the Irish Champion. |
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La Cressonniere
French for “watercress” or watercress bed I believe. Her first two races were at French provincial racecourses over seven furlongs at Clairefontaine in July and Craon in September. 20/09/15 A cond. 27 000 Value (Euros) Craon Prix Lm Petits Pas 1 650m 25/07/15 A cond. 25 000 Clairefontaine - Prix Silver Frost 1 400m La Cressonniere: Dosages Dosage Profile Dosage Points Dosage Index COD 4-0-7-3-0 14 1.15 0.36 Perhaps an expert in dosages could enlighten us all on her chances using this method because I haven't got a clue. Also you have to go back nearly 30 years to Saumarez (Rainbow Quest (USA) (11.3f) — Fiesta Fun (Welsh Pageant (12.5f)) to find the last winner to have won the Prix de lArc de Triomphe on their first try at 12f but he was obviously bred for it. Incidentally, 1993 winner Urban Sea (Miswaki (USA) (8.3f) — Allegretta (Lombard (GER) (14.0f))(Note the dam sire index) , and the 2004 winner Bago (Nashwan (USA) (10.0f) — Moonlight´s Box (USA) (Nureyev (USA))(Nashwan had already produced a top-class Group 1 12f winner in Swain)had both raced over but had not won over the trip prior to their respective victories. La Cressonniere (Le Havre (IRE) (8.4f) — Absolute Lady (IRE) (Galileo (IRE) (11.3f))in my honest opinion has kin no hope of staying 12f well enough to win even in what appears an average year. Moreover, taking 8/1, 14/1 or kin 20/1 right now not knowing the going or her draw is a layers dream and nonsensical. |
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If it is soft in the Irish Champion Stakes Harzand must have a go at Minding; the prize money of 712keuro (500k more than the Matron) is a good enough reason to run - to run is better than not to as long as he is not given a hard race over 10f.
30 years is a long time not to have another 1st time 12f runner/winner of the 'Arc', and I have a good feeling this could be the year! |
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connections don't think La C will stay - no run in the Vermeille tells us that
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If it is soft in the Irish Champion Stakes Harzand must have a go at Minding; the prize money of 712keuro (500k more than the Matron) is a good enough reason to run - to run is better than not to as long as he is not given a hard race over 10f
Not a good enough case imo 1. The Arc was set as THE objective for Harzand way back 2. The owner will rate an Arc win far higher than an Irish champion win and the right prep is what matters, not the prize money for a filthy rich man like the Aga. 3. The horse showed in the Derrinstown that he would improve for 12f and so it has proved so dropping back could get him beat and give him a hard race at the same time, hardly ideal.He is a strong galloping type and Minding no doubt has a better tunr of foot. 4. The Niel would be over 12f and provide experience of the course so given ok ground must be the preferred option. That said, firm ground at Chantilly would be a plan changer 5. Conclusion: Irish Champion is a back-up not the most likely route |
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i don't think the irish champion is a back up plan for harzand sandown i think it has been the plan all along for the horse as his prep for the arc, he just wouldn't want the ground to fast, he would only go the niel route if he didn't get good ground at leopardstown so will have to disagree on your thoughts in this regard... i do however agree on your thoughts on what you think he should be doing
interesting debate going on on the french filly i see |
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Harzand
Friday, Aug 26 2016 http://www.irishracing.com/news?prid=177762 "At the moment the one race is likely to be the Irish Champion Stakes but the distance is far from ideal, a mile and a quarter is possibly too sharp for him," said Weld's son, Mark. "But, he may need to run somewhere and the Irish Champion, being on our doorstep, is the obvious one. |
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You may be right Harry. It would mean not having to travel but that's the only edge I can see. I wouldn't make money if I had to second guess trainers plans, for sure.
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Personally, on acceptable ground conditions I'd rather Hazand run than not - the 'Arc' is still the number 1 target - with/out Minding in the race; this race at 10f could be the main reason why connections of Minding is running her here rather than against her own sex in the Matron Stakes (8f) in order to gauge the potential of Harzand prior to a possible tilt at the 'Arc', and for an extra 500keuro.
A good run from Harzand is adequate, and winning is a bonus given he is more effective over 12f and more. |
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Just a thought but there could be a couple of other reasons why La Cressonniere is not running in the Vermeille. Travelling from Pau all the way up to Chantilly twice in the space of 3 weeks wouldn't be ideal for the filly IMO. The second reason, it appears Rouget likes to give this filly a decent gap between races, the shortest space she has had this season is 35 days the longest 117 days with the other two races having gaps of 65 and 56 respectively. Keeping La Cressonniere as fresh as possible looks to be the main priority for Rouget... why change a winning formula? I think she will stay 12f, she's a relaxed, uncomplicated filly that races with a great attitude and there is also plenty of stamina on both sides of her pedigree. I'm more than hopeful.
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"connections don't think La C will stay - no run in the Vermeille tells us that"
Not really, I think connections do not wish to give her a harder race than necessary in the Vermielle; I also think they are not certain she will stay but the way she had travelled in all her races especially in the Prix de Diane where she came from virtually last place to win despite receiving a hefty bump in the straight no doubt give them enormous hope she will, and I am in that camp too. Harzand and La Cressonniere to fight out the finish (hopefully). |
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you either stay or you dont, whether you have ran at 1m4 or not, she won at 8.5f as a 2yo, has won at 10.5f over the course, her pedigree gives her a solid chance, as does her temperament and demeanor
you had quite a lot of people saying Golden Horn wouldnt stay in the Debry last year so there is always going to be different opinions The Vermeille is not always ideal, id argue that Treve left her Arc run in it last year |
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I don't want to be a Jeremiah on LC because I think she has the profile of a really progressive horse and being unbeaten we just don't know how good she might be. MY concern is that she not only has to stay to w12f but with horses really provewn over the trip and with Harzand 's running style beinbg that of a determined galloper, she is going to have to immprove for the step up. That is the concern Her breeding gives mixed signals over her stamina and there is no way of finding out before the race. Her running style is not that of a stayer, she has so much speed and wins with a strong burst. I agree with Mr Dinos about the freshness angle. The connections would not be running if they were certain that she didn't stay so what have they got lose by trying? I just adds to the uncertainty in the race this year. The going on the day will playits part as far as stamina issues are concerned. Harzand connections will be praying for rain to make it a real test. If it comes up soft he could be well backjed and could displace Postponed.The realreal influences on Arc day are the British and Irish players and don't forget the Japanese.
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Actually I disagree about the points being made about La Cressonniere's exceptional turn of speed. I'm not saying she hasn't finished her races well against the opposition she's faced but if we take her two best races, French 1000 and the Diane, both of those races were well run. In the Diane she was given a patient ride which far from being a hindrance was in fact a help and she stayed on better than the rest. In the French 1000 you only need to watch the video to see they got racing properly from quite some way out, she used her speed quite early and again stayed on the best. As I said before, we can't say for certain what her limit is until she's beaten but what in what were strongly run races I'd expect a future Arc winner to beat those runners more comprehensively than she did.
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* but in what were strongly run races
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La Cressonniere (LC) could not have beaten Qemah who had every chance in the French 1000G (in my book) cosily - Qemah is the 2nd/3rd best filly after Minding and LC in Europe I believe; in the Diane, despite given a lot to do by her jockey, she still won after being in a near hopeless position. And only a very good filly can do that, very similar to Minding in the Epsom Oaks.
It is not her fault the opposition were inferior to her - she can only win; Harzand did not win any of his races comprehensively, and neither did Minding after in a near hopeless position. I hope the jockey of LC rides her as if she will stay the 'Arc' 12f (and if beaten, sobeit) rather than experiencing a nightmare passage and failing to catch the leader/eventual winner after finishing strongly. Not long to wait, it is only a month away now. |
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La Cressonniere (LC) could not have beaten Qemah who had every chance in the French 1000G (in my book) cosily - Qemah is the 2nd/3rd best filly after Minding and LC in Europe
This isn't really consistent as it is taking the French 1000 form at face value but if Qemah is the third best filly in Europe she shouldn't have been beaten by Nathra, who is some way down the pecking order. The obvious conclusion is Qemah didn't give her true running at Deauville/ she's improved since. in the Diane, despite given a lot to do by her jockey, she still won after being in a near hopeless position. And only a very good filly can do that It's certainly not a hopeless position if the runners in front go fast enough early enough, as they did in the Diane. |
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Watching the Diane again La C did not win it like a horse who needed further - she was just holding at the end and not going away. Didn't beat much either - that form is not good enough to win an Arc.
The normal prep route for the French is Arc trials day. They have skipped this because I believe they do not think she will stay 12f but would rather not find out for sure before the Arc. |
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the Diane was not a particularly strongly run race, the leaders were still in front 200 out, the 3 best horses in the race finished top 3, the runner up had a perfect trip from an ideal position and was flattered, Volta was probably the second best in the race, done well from her position but couldnt go with La Cressonniere who came from behind her, the 1st and 3rd should be marked up imo
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the Diane was not a particularly strongly run race, the leaders were still in front 200 out
I don't really see how the prominent runners being in front till 200 yards out means it wasn't a well run race? The class of runner behind has to be taken into account and as there were prices of 100/1, 100/1, 100/1, 66/1, 50/1 it's fair to say there was a lot of rubbish in that race that wouldn't have got involved whatever the pace. In my view those fillies would have been absolutely slaughtered in this year's Derby and it wasn't an especially strong renewal of the Derby. |
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Figgis
You and I are never going to agree (fully) on whether La Cressonniere (LC) is a very good filly or she has just beaten soft oppositions or a principal opposition like Qemah who did not run up to her true form in the French 1000G - I can accept that - but LC did not break sweat in doing so as her jockey was celebrating before the line. As for the Diane, the pace did not suit her either and if the run was to be rerun her jockey would not be so far back, that I'm near certain. I'd back LC against Minding over 10f any day, and possibly over 14f too, but not at 8f, why? Minding is an 8f specialist, I firmly believe, given her ground, and she's been carefully campaigned; Minding bypassed Ascot eg Coronation Stakes, where she'd have encountered Qemah but instead took in a weak Pretty Poly just prior beating much inferior opposition hence her sp of 1/5. And now, given the additional 500keuro and 10f in the Irish Champion Stakes - not an optimum distance for Harzand - connections have decided it is a good time to run against the colts. Apart from Harzand especially if the ground is soft - I was impressed with him given the predicament before the race - I'd not have swap LC for any other runner as I've been impressed with everything she's done so far; I'm more concerned if she'll get a trouble free run in the 'Arc' than the 12f she's encountering for the 1st time; I would not swap her for any other filly in the race eg Found and/or Minding, or the colts like Postponed or Order Of St George (OoSG) unless OoSG is sitting behind her at the 1f marker on soft going. I must admit I know nothing about the Japanese runners, so if my selections get done by any of them, sobeit - that is racing! |
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LC did not break sweat in doing so as her jockey was celebrating before the line
He celebrated as he was a length clear with barely yards to the line and couldn't be caught, which has nothing to do with the winner having an easy race, she was ridden out well before the line. |
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Some of the Diane form looks decent
2nd Left Hand won G3 on next start 3rd Volta 2nd to Qemah in G1 on next start 5th Coolmore 3rd in G1 on next start 8th Highaland Queens won G2 easily on next start 9th Jemayel 3rd in G1 to Minding on next start could be worse, the Derby form hasnt exactly worked out that strongly, not sure Harzand has beaten a Group 1 horse yet |
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Anyway, I'll leave it there otherwise it could develop into an anti LC angle with it looking like I'm saying LC can't win, which isn't what I'm saying. The race on the day could look different than now but as it stands I see her as no value and actually underpriced. Right now I'd make her real chance about 12/1.
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Figgis
Come back...it is only banter...it is only horse racing....not Brexit! Come this time next month all will be revealed - who is right, and who is less right! |
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impossible123, I just meant that it pretty much covers what I think of her chances at this stage so nothing left to say.
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figgis, what prices and who do you have ahead of her at 12/1
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I'd have everything currently priced up by the books at 12 and under either ahead of her or level, barring Found who I'd have bigger.
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Can I have some LC at 12/1 then? Or maybe a bet for charity nominated by whoever is correct: I'll have Harzand, LC and Order Of St George against your chosen 3 or you can have the rest of the field - the prize is £10 to a charity of the winner.
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Funny, I didn't realise Highland Queen won a G2 after the Prix De Diane! She was the one that caused all the barging problems in the race, not Willy Buick's finest moment and rightfully got a ban for his shambolic riding. I would say La Cressonniere ran a bit further than 10.5f that day, it was a rough race early on and she was pushed wide and stayed wide for the majority of the race. I think oneyall is spot on with his 4:40 post.
The Derby form has more holes than my local Crazy Golf Course... but I do like Harzand, lovely colt and another with a good, uncomplicated attitude. I think Dermot Weld will need to do some serious Rain Dancing before the Arc though and I'm really hoping he's useless at it... if he does that kind of thing!!!  |
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12/1 is the price I believe she should be, so it obviously follows I would have no interest in laying a runner at its correct price.
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