My main concern for Harzand at Chantilly would be his ability to negotiate the long and continuous right hand bend - he did not like it at Epsom until into the straight, but I like his constitution and is tough.

They all look exposed to me A_T. Idaho has won two out of seven races and he only beat some average colts at York. Not sure what happened to Wings Of Desire in the Juddmonte International but he was nearer last than first and then there is US Army Ranger getting stuffed by Success Days at the Curragh in a G3 race!!! IMO Harzand has beat some iffy colts and the form hardly looks solid. Apart from Harzand only Deauville has come out of the Derby and won a G1 race and that was a very weak G1 at Belmont Park.

I'm not saying Harzand is rubbish, I actually think he will be a danger, especially if he gets his ground. I'm just not that inspired by any of the colts he's beaten so far.

Horses beaten in the Derby rarely amount to much. Would not be bothered about WoD at York - inadequate trip and usual dodgy Knavesmire summer watering.

The Arc is usually won by a 3yo colt (15 of last 25?) and Harzand is undoubtedly the best of his generation over the trip.

But this year, of course, it's not really a proper Arc. So of what value are trends from previous years?

I don't think that Chantilly will be a problem for Harzand. There is no steep descent around the turn as there is at Epsom which is what upsets a lot of horses , neither is there a camber in the straight. From what I can remember it is rather like a right hand version of York- flat, 2400 metres round with a long turn. Should suit Harzand really. If it is a large field (20+) then the draw will play a part at least as much as it does at Longchamp. As A-T points out, some good 12f horses have won there.I think that with the good pace likely the winner will have to be a proper 12f horse. Although you can get some slowly run Arcs, in the main imo they are strongly run aas you would expect with a large field and heavy prize money and prestige.

Don't know where you get the idea impossible 123 that Minding is a 8f specialist having won a G1's at 12f, 10f (2)

This year there are a number of horses entered with G1 form over 12f eg Postponed,Harzand, Minding,Makahiki,Highland Reel,Jack Hobbs,as well as several G1 winners at 10f eg New Bay,Alamzor, LC,Fascinating Rock as well as G1 stayer in OOSG (14f, 20f) and possibly Idaho if he wins the St Leger so the race will have plenty of depth if they all show up. It should be a classy renewal.

Impossible123

It's a matter of terminology, really, as a "specialist" would define a horse that only runs a certain trip or course, or only wins at a certain trip or course, and Minding fits neither category, so she is not a "specialist.". Whether she is better at 8f, 10, or 12f or equally as good , is best evaluated through metrics such as collateral form or time rating, preferably with sectional included to aid interpretation.Visual evaluation is very subjective and not to be relied on.

Minding's highest RPR's are 122 (10f) 121 (8f) 119 (8f) and 118 (12f.). Her highest TS figs are 111 (12f) 108 (8f) 105 (8f.)  This to my eyes points to her being very versatile with equal ability over distances from 8f to 12f. She is quite clearly not a "specialist."

By way of comparison, as you refer to a match up with La Cressonniere, LC's top RPR's are 115 (10f) 113 (8f) and 112 (10.5f.)  In a race over 12f I would not be as confident as you seem to be that LC would beat Minding.

Sandown

I'll revise my opinion if Minding beats Harzand (soft ground) comprehensively in the Irish Champion Stakes - Almanzor is no back number either and definitely running on merit - and Qemah do not win the Matron Stakes. I'd love it if you were a bookie, and it would not be a surprise if LC was 'fav' on race day, being a french runner.

If Harland beats Minding over 10f, it will tell us more about him than it will about Minding.

The way I bet I am like a bookie!

Majority of the books have her about right in my view at 8/1.

i think that is a great post sandown but flawed in a few ways

this in regards how important it is in regards the weight for age 3 year old fillies/colt receive in this race and how hard it is for the older horse in regards giving this weight after a harder season... so you think the horse you use here is a great example, he had a tough campaign trained hard to win the prince of wales in which he had epic duel with the tough rewilding and another eyes out effort against the top class filly snow fairy before the big race surely done for him/chances come the big day

this showing just how important it is to come here fresh with a decent prep race, this plus the weight received suits the 3 year old who has less quirks at that stage of there career and obviously open to more improvement, this doesn't stop the argument that that colt/filly has to be good enough...the filly that won that day danedream getting the allowances improved markedly on all known form so that is why i can't discount la cress how you have certainly done here, i'm not sure the overround you are betting to but you had postponed at 7-10/1 the other day so would love to see your tissue

la cress the horse in question here i find hard to fathom myself and am look warm on her chances (is she good enough) the other thing is more to do with her prep race coming into this as i have to say fillies just annoy me in regards improvement from one run to another and i haven't got a solid rating for her anyway as she travels so well and idles in front...

she seems to possess plenty of pace and her run the other day in a slowly run race in which she didn't hit the line full of run in fact i thought the second was starting to close near the line was a tough race in which to evaluate as she quickened smartly then just seem to idle...she should be taking in the vermeille but like another poster posted rouget does like to give her time between races...she was plenty fresh enough the other day running keenly but did win easily with the second closing when the race was over...she is tough for me so will have to watch her win as there appears no sweets at the 8/1 we are getting now, what price should she be 12/1 would be fair

i find fillies tough like i say but feel you maybe should be getting a better price but strength in depth in this race is slim on the ground, lacking class, yes there are plenty of potential improvers but i don't see them hence why i am very keen on the japanese horse at the prices

he comes here a young lightly raced colt who has only just done enough in his races clocking 32.6 seconds in a mile 2f race for the final 3f showing his speed and he comes here trained for the race which i also like, he was also very green in that race...

just reading between the lines the japanese 3 year olds are a very decent bunch this season and this horse has looked a very backward type idling in his races and just not looking the finished article, he is open to big improvement and is a very decent price at 14/1...also his full sister handled cut well and he himself doesn't look a complete one trick poney judging by how strides out and deep impacts progeny seem to handle all sorts, i'd be hopeful in this regard, lets hope his prep goes well in the niel and he runs a big race come the big day

postponed a horse who has learnt to settle in his races this year imo... i am happy where i have him, which is a decent group 1 horse for me, the juddmonte gave me exactly what i wanted as i have been happy where i have highland reel which in my book is a solid 122 horse who for me was over the top/peek in this race but still ran well, the one i loved in the judd was the third who ran his best race but ran to where i have him before this run around dead 120 and he is a cracking horse in which i like to use... highland reel ran well but judging by the betting that day they knew the king george was his big day and he ran just ok, he was game to be second considering he looked well beaten at the 2 pole maybe he just wasn't quick enough but maybe the edge was taken off him in the george

harzand for me is a slow horse, i like him obviously after he done us a favour in the derby but like a lot of races i do like to handicap a race before they run and after obviously, however for me the reason he was a good bet in the derby was because of the average horses running in it and he got his ground, he just grinded it out and the second was hardly up for the challenge when challenging him, neither was the third imo the third is pretty solid although even money for the leger is horrible about a horse who loves to hang...anyway i feel the track here where you need to travel may not suit him and the other thing is i don't feel he is that good, i maybe wrong as he has at least been trained for the race but i'd want a better price about him as he as always looked a slow horse

i can't see minding running here

new bay a horse i haven't really ever liked had a nice confidence booster in a poor race the other day, the problems that have bothered him this season gives you little confidence

i quite almanzor and he continues to progress nicely, i would say he is being trained hard for the irish champion so this maybe an after thought, we will see with him but the irish champion will tell us more i'd take him in a match with harzand in that race

the horse he beat zarak is not a bad price considering connections but i just don't like his attitude, i backed him in the french derby and he travelled up before finding nothing when asked as is his want...he performed his same party trick against almanzor the other day, his keeness earlier in his races continues to stop his progression, he may make a better 4 year old as he is far from the finished article but at this stage he is to complicated for me

anyway i can see a few pacemakers here with harzand running and lets hope so as i can't find pace in the race

Regards Harzand in the Epsom Derby no one took into consideration the 'leg-in-the-ice-bucket' (treatment) to reduce swelling arising from a shoe incident for several hours till just prior to race yet he won with authority. Also, the front 3 pulled 5 lengths clear of the 4th horse, Wings Of Desire, the runner-up in the King George.

In my opinion US Army Ranger was running over an inadequate trip of 10f in the Royal Whip after a break; he was going as well as any in the race but just could not quicken maybe still a bit rusty after the break and/or did not possess the pace for a 10f Group horse, and despite being odds-on, rightfully got his comeuppance. But his next assignment is the Enterprise Stakes over 12f at Leopardstown next weekend.

"If you cannot see how a horse rated at adjusted weights 8 lbs below top like LC is, with the task I've outlined, can easily be a 20/1 chance, then you have much to learn"

thats your opinion, nothing else

can I ask how much you have layed LC for? not everyday you can lay 8/1 about a 20/1 shot

i haven't missed your point sandown, you were pointing out about distance for SYT and using L/C i just didn't think it was appropriate in that horses case against LC because of the races he took in compromised his chances...i have the same reservations as yourself in regards distance and ability for the filly but because of all the allowances and lack of strength in depth in regards class in this race i still have to respect her, i find fillies hard to assess and she is no exception

the rating is your opinion, thus everything else you state is based on your opinion

on what planet are there 15 better horses than La Cressonniere in the Arc this season, of the 3yo's only Harzand and Minding are in the same debate, and of the older horses only Postponed

for me the Arc can be won by 3 horses this year, LC, Harzand or Makahiki, at least one of these are going to be too good for Postponed to give the weight to, thats my opinion on the race

shes a 6/1 shot in my book

I've not seen any LC fans say the price they think she should be?

I backed La Cressonniere after Almanzor won at Deauville, B365 pushed her out to 14-1 for some reason and I thought that was a fair price!

Harzand's price is pretty daft as well, 4-1 - 6-1... considering what he's beaten so far IMO.

I still think Makahiki is a great price at 14-1, the vibes have been strong since last year (2yr olds) regarding the quality of the Japanese colts. I cannot wait to see how he gets on next week... it's been a long wait.

J A P

I think the current price of 7/1 for LC is about right given her potential but still longer than Harzand (soft form according to one or two here) and Minding (an uncertain runner) which I find difficult to comprehend. The price of Postponed eg 1/15 of Highland Reel (74/1) is also difficult to fathom despite beating mediocre opponents.

However, I do agree it is difficult to be sure about the improvement a filly could show come 'Arc' day eg Treve, who won her Vermeille in 2013 from a long way back, yet was allowed to go off at 6/1 in the 'Arc', and won impressively in a supposedly strong field. As such, I can envisage the price for LC will be shorter come 'Arc' day being French trained, and with the memories of Treve still fresh with the French people.

Who'd be onboard Makahiki? I hope not one of the Japanese pilots because I have no faith in any of them, I must admit.

Christophe Lemaire was aboard Satono Diamond – who is also entered in the Arc – and believes the current Classic crop in Japan are capable of ending the country’s long wait for a first Arc success.

“Right from the start they have looked a very high-quality group and I think they can put it up to the European three-year-olds in the autumn,” said Lemaire. “We saw two very nice races in the Epsom Derby and Jockey Club, but it remains to be seen who is the real leader of the generation in Europe."

Anyone know the max field size at Chamtilly? Or the likely number of runners?

I know GH made light work of his high draw last year but from what I've seen of the French Derby a high draw here is an extreme disadvantage.