No problem i123.

Lemaire has already won on Makahiki at Nakayama earlier this year as well. Great to see Lemaire back in France, he's been riding very well in Japan the last couple of years.

Good post Harry, Lemaire has always been very bullish about Satono Diamond but he did compare Makahiki favourably. He didn't think there would be much between them before the Satsuki Sho and there wasn't. It was very similar in the Japan Derby as well.

Makahiki is the only Japanese runner in the Arc this year.

i've only looked at chantilly for the french derby in regards draw eastlower gooner but when you look at the roll of honour the draw hasn't played out as the winners have come from high, low and middle, hope this helps with trying to find the edge

that is the french derby when it was run over 1m4f just to clarify

Makahiki

I had a look at the past Japanese trained runners in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe after the write-up by Sam Walker in the RP on 7th March 2016- Makahiki could be Japan's Arc hope.

El Condor Pasa won the Japan Cup (1998) as a 3yo for Yoshitaka Ninomiya and was then trained in France the following year specifically for the Arc. He came 2nd in Prix d'Ispahan and won the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud (Group 1) in July before winning the Prix Foy (Group 2) and then ran a great race to come 2nd to the 3yo Montjeu in the 1999 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. Over a decade later Yoshitaka Ninomiya trained Nakayama Festa who came 2nd in the Prix Foy and then was unlucky in running and still ran a blinding race to be beaten a head by Workforce in the 2010Arc. Nakayama Festa was specifically trained for the Arc the following year but was unplaced in both the Prix Foy and the Arc.

The Japanese superstar and Japan’s seventh Triple Crown winner Orfevre (2011) was trained by Yasutoshi Ikee, who had worked for Michael Stoute and was part of the team behind the likes of Pilsudski (2nd in both 1996 and 1997). Orfevre won the Prix Foy easily as a 4yo and was desperately unlucky to be beaten by Solemia in the Arc (2012) after going clear a fair way out.Yasuo Ikee, his father, was a fine jockey (‘front running Ikee’) and trained multiple Group 1 winners, and happened to be the trainer of the invincible Deep Impact who finished 3rd (later disqualified) in the 2006 Arc for Japan behind Rail Link and the 6yo mare Pride, beating Hurricane Run the previous year’s winner.

Harp Star (3yo, Hiroyoshi Matsuda), Just A Way (5yo, Naosuke Sugai ) and Gold Ship (5yo, Naosuke Sugai) all ran unplaced behind Treve in 2014.

Yasuo Tomomichi, the trainer of this year's Japanese Derby winner, Makahiki- named after the ancient Hawaiian New Year festival, in honour of the god Lono of the Hawaiian religion- is somewhat different to the past Japanese trainers by my reckoning. His NHK Mile Cup (Grade 1) winner Clarity Sky (2015) never won again. Unrivaled, his Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2,000 Guineas) (Grade 1) (2009) winner  regressed afterwards and was beaten 13 1/2l, 17 1/2l and 42l in three Group 1’s. The stables Verxina won the Victoria Mile (Grade 1) as a 4yo (2012) and again as a mare the following year at 27/1 but was overall inconsistent. Admire Jupiter, who won the Tenno Sho (Spring) (Grade 1) (2008) as a 5yo never won again. There are a few guys on here who know their Japanese racing much better than me and I’m not saying he is a Mr Stepto and a rag-and-bone trainer but that certainly put me off backing the horse at much bigger prices a while ago.

Moreover, as regards the quote by Christophe-Patrice Lemaire; he never won the Arc in all his time in France.

Have you been on Wikipedia again? What is that on about? MrDinos?

very interesting way of looking at a race/jockey/trainer madhu... lets hope the trainer/owner aren't daft enough to come half way round the world to finish tailed...i did read an article but can't find it that was saying how pleased they were with how the colt was training and others not so good in japan hence why he is there only entry

looking at some of his big race wins the trainer has won... some long shots down the years suggesting he can certainly ready one for the big day, it doesn't matter as long as they ready for the big day in my book...lets hope we aren't having to name you stepto madhu after this post...you will certainly be remembered as the man that knocked the arc winning trainer and came out with a flawed reason in which not to back the colt...i will certainly tip my hat if you are correct madhu...what do you think of robert cowell madhu can he get one ready for a big race iyo

interesting that the aga khan employed christophe lemaire as first jockey, not a bad judge imo

http://japanracing.jp/en/information/jockey-trainer-ranking/

I think you've covered everything Madhu regarding Tomomichi. He hasn't done anything wrong with Makahiki so far and hopefully he will have him spot on for the Arc. Next week might give us a better idea where he's at!

Not allowed to say **** for some reason ?

I've taken a look at the official ground over the years at Chantilly for a meeting which is usually around the second week in October. Its most often been given as soft but ranges from heavy to good on a few occasions.Not seen anything faster than good given in the past 25 years but not gone any further back. Looking at the official site it says that the run-in is 600 metres and there is a 10m incline which means that it does have a steeper finish than I at first thought.Looks to me as though it will suit stamina over speed.

With regards to *** or **** I would think that anyone with half a brain should realise that J$p or J$ps is a way of insult when used to refer to the people of Japan or the Japanese and nowadays is only used by half eediats.

I don't think it's a racist term at all, unless used in a derogatory term. Just as i don't think calling a Scottish person a Scot is racist. I would say Madhu is a wanka though.

It has been a while since someone called me a $$$$$$, so it got me thinking that when one writes more than 140 characters about their betting strategy on a debate platform such as this forum one might come across as arrogant when they take a decision or position based on collecting, organising and interpreting data. In this instance I kind of looked at a made-up analogy of a say an English trainer who in say 20 years had trained a few Group 1 horses that never went on and then had the Derby winner in what appears a good year, who then took a decision to stop training the horse and prepare the colt for say the Breeders’ Cup Turf 10,000 miles away some 6 months later having never won a highly prestigious race in the US before or won one outside of Britain. In no way would I want to demean the trainer because he would obviously have handled the horse well up until ‘now’ but to me that imaginable horse is one to take on in those circumstances even with a course that is likely to suit and with a world class jockey who knows the horse well. He may well win the Prix Foy as impressively as A Shin Hikari did in the Prix d'Ispahan- yes it is a wise nodder after the event comparison but not knowing the draw, ground conditions and the opposition come Arc day, he is a horse I would be happy to take on at around 16/1 right now and I saw no value in even 50/1 a while back because I thought the vibes on the colt were in no way comparable to other Japanese horses in the past. I will probably die by the samurai sword for using such an inept description of ‘I’m not saying he is a Mr Stepto and a rag-and-bone trainer’ but I am a statistical probability punter, however, I stand by what I wrote concerning others use of the obvious ethnophaulism describing the horse through its connections.

I never used it as a ethnophaulism or any form of pre-conception. I clearly stated that i used it as a way of shortening the term 'J4panese', and used 'Scots' as an example. Back to horses. You're on ignore.

I've reviewed the video link provided by Any etc and been able to assess LC from a sectional time standpoint, especially the Diane which is the key piece of form and compared this to other runnings over the years and with French Derby over the same trip.

I hesitate to say anything which may seem to knock the chance of LC in the Arc but I offer these insights purely to assist. I always try to remember Mark Twain's aphorism in these moments , to the effect of " It ain't what you don't know that gets you killed. Its what you do know for certain but ain't true that does." Never more true than when talking about betting.

There are two key aspects to consider, a) the level of form and b) how the step up to 12f might affect performence.

As to the a), the level of form in the Diane is well below that of the greats such as Treve and Zarkava who went on to win the Arc who had the pedigree for 12f. It is also not as good as say that of Avenir Certain who went on to be placed in the Arc. What it does match is that of Latice in 2004, a filly who after winning the Diane was 4 from 4 so the profile is comparable. Latice ran in the Vermeille and went off 11/10 fav but could only finish 8yh. She beaten only just under 2 lengths where either lack of fitness or stamina came into play  as she looked the winner early in the straight but was cut down. Tnevertheless,the decision was made to let her run in the Arc where she went off at 28/1. She ran respectably to finish 7th beaten 4.25 lengths by bago. although she travelled well and stamina was not given as a reason for defeat, she never ran over that trip again.

Back to LC. Her last 2f at Chantilly were 10.89 and 12.77. Now, in my experience of reading sectional times for a long time, this is not a good indicator for a horse stepping up in trip.  Believe what you want, but I firmly now believe that LC , whilst being a good filly,will find it very tough to improve over further, against bigger stronger colts and older horses, to improve sufficiently to be win the Arc.

I will try to leave this horse alone having said enough. Each of us has to make our own judgements and no doubt the supporters of LC will come bakc and offer reasons why I am wrong, but all i can do is proive some evidence for you to make a more informed judgement. And just saying its only my opinion does not provide  a reasoned response, although of course it is true statement.

Makahiki down to 7-1 with B365 and other bookies have cut his price as well. It's got a Pricewise look about it!

Segal is like the Kiss Of Death.

Hopefully he might be right for a change... and me!

Just feel flattered,...maybe 'Priceunwise' has been observing this forum prior to coming to their 'recommendations'. After all, Makahiki and Order Of St George are not a total surprise, are they?

Flattered i123? As in a blacksmiths usage more like! Am getting out ASAP, will be green shortly.