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Sorry, I did not have the info you had.
Regards Idaho, I cannot see Idaho winning any prestigious 10f/12f races given the presence of Postponed, Harzand, La Cressonniere, Seventh Heaven, Minding or even USAR because Idaho just does not possess the necessary ability to travel well, quicken and pull away in a 12f - he reminds me of Kingston Hill or Romsdal, a good horse but without the class to be special, I'm afraid. |
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Trying to work out the Coolmore plans is a harder task than trying to find the race winner imo which is why I think the race is full of uncertainties this year. I couldn't be confident of predicting the winner at this stage. There is every chance that we will see something put up an outstanding performance to shake things up but which one? The winner of the Arc is most often the horse which improves significantly especially as this year I don't think that Postponed has the kind of grip on the race which makes me say he has only to run to form to win the race.
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i've been quite keen to play this race for quite a while with a lot of uncertainties in regards many runners, postponed appears solid in regards this race, he isn't for me at the short price, however, i still respect him with very little class in opposition, he actually isn't a poor price at 4/1 imo with so many uncertainties...
i agree with figgis in regards minding not really moving forward after the guineas and i get the impression they are looking after her with next year in mind as o'brien has mentioned as much and they haven't really got a decent colt although, she is proving popular in the irish champion market so we will see anyway i have had a wager but haven't got on what i want yet and the exchange is just empty in regards to wagering the race |
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AOB's record in the Arc is shocking. He, put simply, never targets the race. He is more interested in winning the rest of the European Group 1. Most of his run in the race ''Just because''.
Why anyone would think OOSG would run in this is beyond me. Clearly new to the game and not familiar with **** who was trumpeted as a 12f horse after his GC wins but never ran over it. The only one with a smidgen of value I can see is the other Aga Khan horse which is Zarak. He finished behind Almanzor the last twice, the first time being slightly unlucky in-running, and is being aimed at the Prix Niel next. ADRDP said he needed the run last time and if Almanzor runs well in the Irish Champion his form will get a nice boost. 22/1 seems too big. |
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* Y E A T S
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Part of the Coolmore stallion hype is to discuss races that their colts "might" run in, to suggest abilities that don't need to be proved on the racecourse. Remember Galileo who had the speed to win a July Cup, Australia was going to run in the QEII but was retired instead...
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sintonian
AOB's record in the Arc is shocking. He, put simply, never targets the race. He is more interested in winning the rest of the European Group 1. Most of his run in the race ''Just because''. The first part of this statement is factually correct in that AOB has only won the race once (Dylan Thomas) despite any number of runners in it, although describing it as "shocking" is only your opinion. Certainly, it is not as good as Fabre's record (6 wins) who undoubtedly does target the race but whether AOB's relative lack of success compared to Fabre is down to him not targeting the race should be taken in the context of AOB's and Fabres relationships with their principal owners. AOB trains principally for Coolmore i.e Magnier, who along with Tabor, Smith, and others, decide on the races that their horses go for,not AOB. Magnier has stated many times that the Eosom Derby and the Arc are always the main "targets" for his middle distance horses. Magnier/Coolmore have won the Arc 3 times with Dylan Thomas (AOB) Hurricane Run (Fabre) and Montjeu (Hammond) but before that, when he was the junior partner in the Sangster/VOB Ballydoyle set-up he was associated with wins with Detroit and Alleged (twice.) On the other hand, Fabre has seemingly a more equal relationship with owners and a very large say in targets. For the French, the Arc is THE race to win so that argues more for Fabre rather than against AOB. I certainly do not agree that the evidence points to AOB being "more interested in winning other European G1 races" given the number of attempts he has had. As for the "just because" point, I have no idea what that means. The Arc favours 3 year olds especially and 4 year olds somewhat, and as Coolmore have their 3 year olds ready to win the Classics in England and Ireland followed by the mid summer top races Eclipse,KG, then perhaps it is not surprising that AOB's best horses are beyond their best in October,m whilst Fabre and other French trainers like to give their Arc horses a mid-summer break and are not subjected to such a hard early season programme as the English and Irish horses are. Interstingly, Dermot Weld is not very successful with his French runners generally and he has yet to win an Arc. But Harzand, wehose owner the Aga Khan does wish for nothing more than to win the Arc, and Harzand is being given a "French" style prep this year. |
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sintonian
Why anyone would think OOSG would run in this is beyond me. Clearly new to the game and not familiar with **** who was trumpeted as a 12f horse after his GC wins but never ran over it. You may have missed AOB's recent interview with Gary O'Brien in which when asked by GOB about the possibility of the Arc for OOSG, AOB clearly was of the opinion that it was more than a possibility as they believed that the horse has the requisite speed for 12f but it require the ground to come up soft for him to run.They would assess after the Irish St Leger, but of course the MC remains on the agenda as well, so any view at present remains speculative. |
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**** did win the Derrinstown over 10f, was favouriite for the Derby that year before going wrong, did win the Coronation Cup as a 4 yr over 12f, so clearly had a case for running in the Arc. I can't see that the fact that he never tried has any relevance to the argument for Order of St George to run in the Arc
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I see that the RP today confirms Madhu's view (30/8 post) that Order of St George , having been given joint top weight in the MC, is an unlikely runner there, according to his owner.Which increases the chance that we may see the horse in the Arc. The same might be true for Highland Reel, who has also been given top weight.
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Interesting comments by a few knowledgeable posters, and this is why a forum like this exists ie a sharing of knowledge and opinions (logical/plausible).
The end game is always picking more winners than losers, and hopefully showing a profit in the end; I think this could be achieved (difficult, I admit) using a tried and tested methodology eg acquiring and utilizing latest info from connections hopefully ahead of the bookies given every bookie operates differently eg some not as involved with horse racing, to 'nick' a few points eg Even Song in the Ribblesdale Stakes/Irish Oaks, Idaho in the St Leger, Seventh Heaven in the Yorkshire Oaks, to name three. The 'Arc' at Chantilly this year is difficult to decipher. As such, there is tremendous value to be had if one does not fancy the market leaders especially the British and Irish ones. The discrepancy in the prices of Order Of St George (23/1 here and 14/1 with others) is solely the uncertainty surrounding his participation eg Melbourne Cup and Arc's 12f, but he won the Gold Cup running the last 2f quicker than the winner of a 12f race earlier on soft going (a must); there is little value now in La Cressonniere if one does not rate her recent victories especially not running in the Vermeille but that will change if she wins the 'Arc', and next year she'll be priced accordingly eg Treve. I'm, without doubt, that if the 'Arc' was in August rather than Oct there will be more participants from British and Irish trainers as it is the most coveted and prestigious race for a horse and its connections to win much more than the Epsom Derby, Ascot's Champions Stakes, etc. |
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I'm always prepared to change my view about a runner after a result but even after his International win I still believe that Postponed is overrated. I backed Highland Reel as I thought he was a value bet against the fav but Postponed beat him decisively. However, Highland Reel is below the usual standard of King George winner and the International form is a bit substandard for a Gp1 in my opinion. Postponed would get marks from me for attitude and consistency but that's not how races are rated and I don't see how he can be rated 132 by Timeform, which is equal to Dylan Thomas, for instance. That's what comes from employing race standardisation methods I guess.
It could be argued that Postponed always looked the winner and was value for more at York. I'd agree with the former but not the latter, as the race was well run and Postponed had every opportunity to show how good he is. For me he ran right up to his previous best and that's probably as good as he is. Depending on what turns up for the Arc it may not matter that Postponed is overrated, his form could be good enough anyway. Nevertheless I think there are reasons why Postponed may not even run to his best. I don't hold with the belief that 5yos have a lesser chance in the Arc just because of the age statistics. I do, however, think that a reason should be looked for that might explain the stats. It's quite rare for a top class 5yo to be given an ideal Arc preparation and they generally have a tough early campaign. Postponed is no exception here as he started out this year as early as March. Despite how he travelled last time I reckon ultimately it was a fairly hard race where he equalled his peak form. He may turn out to have the robustness of Dylan Thomas and even though he's been commendably consistent so far I think there's an odds on chance he won't be at his best next time. |
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Figgis
The thing about postponed is that at 5, he is unlikely to show much if any improvement on his PB. Possible yes, but unlikely. And at his best, on RPR's and adjusted for WFA, he would rank equal 24th amongst the last 25 years of Arc winners ranking alongside Sagamix.So, to win even an average Arc he has to improve. If you are correct in your opinion that he might not be at his best then his prospects of improving are well less than evens at best. His chance will depend on what improves past him and at present there are enough possible improvers for his price to be imo far too short at this stage. I can't say with any confidence which one to be with, other than Harzand who has the profile, but my strategy currently is to be a layer of Postponed and to be on-side with the potential improvers, irrespective of their RPR's. |
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Sandown, yes I'd want to be against him even if I thought he was ready to run to his best. Predicting a below par run from a horse is not something you can ever be sure of, or even estimate by how much it will regress, but I believe you can predict it often enough to factor it into the odds. Back to Dylan Thomas, I thought he was more likely to run below par than Authorized after his hard season, although I still didn't back Authorized because of the short odds. In the event it was Authorized that ran way below form, although I still believe DT ran a few pounds below his best too but was still good enough to win.
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The dark horse of the race is Makahiki, the Japanese 3yr old's look a very strong bunch this year and he is probably the best of the lot. Given way too much to do in the Satsuki Sho he finished with a great burst of speed to come 2nd. His Jock Kawada didn't make the same mistake in the Japanese Derby and he won that a shade cosy IMO beating another very good and highly regarded horse Satono Diamond. Makahiki has been in France for well over week now and connections have reported he travelled great from Japan and didn't lose much weight which is always a good sign. From the pictures I've seen he looks to have settled in nicely at Chantilly and he has already had a good look around the racecourse. Christophe Lemaire is coming back to France to ride him in the Prix Neil/Arc which is a bonus and he knows Makahiki well, winning on him earlier this year at Nakayama. I've had couple of EW bets at 16-1 and 14-1 over the last couple of months, the main concern I have is very soft/heavy ground which he's never experienced but he's by Deep Impact so anything is possible... I hope!
The one I fear and have also backed this month is La Cressonniere, there have been some very good posts about this filly on here and I have to agree with them that she is the one that could be something special. She ticks all the boxes for me, her Prix De Diane win was what really made me sit up and take notice. She came from a long way back but to make it even more difficult for her she nearly got knocked off her feet getting a hefty bump in the side. Totally unfazed by all of that she still managed to win easily with a great turn of foot. Her prep run last week proved she's in fantastic form and I don't think the trip will be a problem, her attitude is spot on and she has won on all types of ground. |
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minding went for a walk on here
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His chance will depend on what improves past him and at present there are enough possible improvers for his price to be imo far too short at this stage
out of interest sandown what price should he be in your book, i'm not keen but feel his price at 4/1 is about right mr dinos is where i am at in regards the winner, really like this japanese horse, track will suit and has been prepared well for the race, just feel 14/1 is an insult and the crop of japanese 3 year olds are a good bunch imo anyway fingers crossed this raw horse will progress |
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Harry C
out of interest sandown what price should he be in your book I have him priced at 10.9 currently Harry. That assumes he can improve 1 lb on his RP PB, but as I've said, being a 5 yr old I'm not really expecting much if any improvement on his PB, and as Figgis points out there is a case for him regressing. Much of his price is due to the large number of expected non-shows whilst he is scheduled to run all being well. It's all very well expecting non-shows but in my experience that applies to him also given there is still over 4 weeks to run. Anyway, I feel that he is bound to drift as he has had his prep and he will not be making headlines for the right reasons before the race. Plenty of others may well do so. As I've said, his best RPR only puts him on the joint 24th Arc winner unless he improves. For my money, he's worth opposing at his current price. |
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joint 24th Arc winner of the past 25 years that is.
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For my own beenfit, I decided overnight to upgrade my calculations of prices by incorporating into the A/P spreadsheet an estimate of the chance of each horse running in the race. Its pure judgement of course, and is the fuzziest of all inputs but it is more realistic to do for A/P markets.
Following this upgrade, I have revised my current estimate of Postponed's price to 7.4 fwiw. |
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What is missing so far from this thread is a discussion about the French chances.Since 1991, French trained horses have won 16 of the 25 races run, a mighty 64% of the total. It is for French trainers the most important prize in the calendar, so they cannot be left out at all.
LA CRESSIONNAIRE (8/1) is unbeaten ( 5 from 5)and has a great turn of foot. She could be anything but as yet she hasn't actually put up either an Arc winning RPR or TS. She is around 7-10 lbs below winning an average Arc. She hasn't as yet either proved herself at 12f although she is out of a Galileo mare by Le Havre and so could stay. What she is not yet is a Zarkova or a Treve, but she might be. Her price is a reflection of her potential so she really needs to justify that price with another run before the Arc. But where? She is not quoted in the Vermeille market which would be the traditional stepping stone for a filly., or the Foy. NEW BAY (16/1) is somewhat under the radar this year. Third last year on ground possibly too fast for him, he is trained by a genius in Fabre. Just the 2 runs this year, the first was a non-event but he showed that he was coming back to form at Deauville. He is entered in the Prix Foy and is evens fav to beat Highland Reel at 9/2. A good win there and he will be a single figure price for the Arc. ALMANZOR (16/1) was a very good winner of the French Derby at Chantilly and showed further improvement to win at Deauville. Like LA CRESSIONNAIRE he is trained by J-C Rouget and also has a great turn of foot. He is joint second fav for the Irish Champion behind Minding. May have stamina doubts for 12f. ZARAK (20/1) is out of Zarkava and is the Aga's other main contender besides Harzand. Zarak was beaten behind Almanzor last time but may have more stamina than that one.He is not rated far behind the other French horses and if finding improvement over 12f is not without a shout. Of these 4, New Bay is the most interesting at the prices. La Cressionnaire has the potential to be a big improver. I don't see much in the other French possibles at this stage. |
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Le C goes straight to the Arc without a 12f prep - which to me says connections have big doubts about her getting the trip
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I like La Cressonniere a lot: her ability to travel and quicken at the end of her races regardless of pace impress me no end. She also reminds me of Treve when Treve was a 3yr old despite not running in the Vermeille next weekend - would be 'fav' if she was; she is going straight to the 'Arc' after the La Nonette.
I'm more than hopeful she'll stay 12f, if so, she'll win the 'Arc' next month too. And the french will make her 'fav' on race day. |
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I lean towards La Cressionnaire being a likely stayer as stamina didn't appear lacking as a 2yo when winning over a mile in soft ground and she showed she's amenable to restraint in the Diane. I have big doubts however that she's going to be good enough. Until she's beaten you can't really put a ceiling on her ability but I'm not that impressed with the form on show as I think those fillies races in France didn't take a great deal of winning this year and she didn't exactly bolt in. Maybe if we get a slowly run race and she's given a good tactical ride she could win but not for me at the price.
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Ive seen a lot of different numbers now for how many times La Cressonniere has run, she is unbeaten 8 from 8.
They think she will stay and her pedigree gives her a good chance. Its also clear they rate her above the French Derby winner Almanzor. Her form is comparable with the best 3yos in Europe this year, numerous lines tie her in closely with Minding. I have not seen anything that can match her turn of foot, we will find out if she stays when she kicks clear. |
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I certainly wouldn't want to knock LC on potential but the fact remains that her performances on the clock and on collateral form do not match those of Treve (as a 3yr) nor of Zarkava. So although she is unbeaten (6 from 6 on RP database, I mistakenly wrote 5 from 5, don't know where 8 from 8 comes from) she would have to go some to beat Minding, if she runs, let alone anything else. Not to say that she can't but I certainly couldn't be as bullish as the last 2 posters and at the prices now on offer and with the stamina uncertainty and the fact that she is avoiding the Vermeille, then I'm quite happy to wait for the day with her.
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I meant to say 2 of the last 3 posters, excuding Figgis, who I would agree with.In this game, most horses are only "possibles" to win i.e less than 50% chance if we define a "probable" as one with more than a 50% chance, and can never be thought to be certainties. So, prophecies such as "kicking clear" and "if she stays, will win" or even "will be favorite on the day" can make people look foolish. Nevertheless, I admire the confidence fellas.
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8 from 8 comes from reality, 6 from 6 which has been widely reported over here comes from shoddy journalism/research I can only assume.
I agree her form does not match Zarkava and Treve, two of the best fillies of all time, Minding doesnt come close to those two either. The question is does it need to be to beat Postponed and Harzand? She has not had many chances to produce great times, slowly run races and soft ground, but her 1:36 in the French 1000 is solid, and was a second faster than The Ghurka in the 2000 who has proven himself to be up there with the top 3yo milers. As a 2yo she beat Jet Setting easily on heavy ground, who went on to beat Minding in the Irish Guineas. In the Prix Isonomy she won 3 1/2L easily from a horse who ran 3rd in G1 Criterium De Saint Cloud next start, finishing in front of Idaho. In the French 1000 she beat Qemah who has since won the Coronation and Prix Rothschild, Alice Springs who went on to win the Falmouth and Spectre who has since run 3rd in the Prix Jean Prat and 4th in the Jaques La Marois, suggesting the form stands with the best milers in Europe this season. In her recent trial she absolutely outclassed a Group 1 winner in Jemayel who had just finished 3rd to Minding in the Nassau despite reportedly not handling the track. Not sure where you have got the opinion she "would have to go some to beat Minding" from, I think you just havent done your homework thoroughly with this horse considering you didnt even know how many times it had run. This is a shallow Arc, La Cressonniere would have to be rated 120+ at this stage and appears to be still improving, and you shouldnt underestimate how important her superior preparation has been for the race in comparison to Minding. 8/1 is a very, very fair price still, im happy with 14/1 but will be going in again before the 8s goes because id be surprised if she started much bigger than 6/1, and will be close to favourite in France. |
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I'm with Sandown on this one. The fillies mentioned that were beaten in the French 1000 obviously didn't give of their best that day, as can be seen by the subsequent form of runners that finished ahead of them, such as Nathra and Besharah.
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I would say Nathra and Besharah have went backwards, rather than a host of top fillies not running their best on the day.
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La Cressonniere is not a miler but had too many gears for the best 3yo mile fillies on the day, as I expected her to.
She beat Volta in the French Oaks who ran a good 2nd to Qemah in the Rothschild to further confirm the level of La Cressonniere shouldnt be doubted. |
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If Minding beats Harzand id become even more confident about La Cressonniere, I just dont believe that Postponed can give her 11 pounds, its impossible.
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Minding is rated 120 along with Jet Setting with Alice Springs on 115 who finished almost 2l behind Qemah at Ascot over 8f or 4lbs behind Qemah giving Qemah a rating of 118/9. If Qemah is on 118/9, La Cressonniere would be at least 120 given the beating she gave to Qemah and Alice Springs in the french 1000G. Or have I been too simplistic in my assumption?
I think one would not be wrong to suggest La Cressonneire could be at least, if not better, than Minding using Jemayel as a yardstick, all things being equal. |
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LC last run was just a training gallop in which she beat her own stable companions so the form and rating mean nothing. Her Diane is the form that matters for which she was given a RPR of 112. All my comparisons are on the same scale.To win an Arc she needs to improve at least 10 lb which she might well do but you can't assume that from the selective form comparisons which you have used.
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Not a host of fillies running below form, just Alice Springs. Qemah had valid excuses, being held up in rear in a race that ended up a fairly bunched finish and stumbling in the process.
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La Cressonneire came from a near impossible position - 2nd last and 10l behind the leader (Coolmore) - to win the french Oaks despite receiving a hefty bump after the final turn. I think she is up to winning if she stays another 1.5f further.
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La Cressonniere doesnt know anything about excuses Figgis, as impossible says, she would have been forgiven for not winning the Diane considering the task she had in the straight, only a top filly wins that race from there, the winning margin doesnt do justice to her superiority over that field.
Interested to see who Sandown fancies, considering he has rated La Cressonniere as Group 2 level, must be a wonder horse. I fail to see why Jemayel being from the same stable means the form is irrelevant.... are you suggesting that the Al Shaqab Group 1 winning filly was a non trier? jockey seemed to be exerting a fair bit more effort than Demuro on La Cressonniere, and she was beaten further in the French Oaks in any case, is that irrelevant as well because they are from the same stable? |
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La Cressonniere doesnt know anything about excuses Figgis
What the horse does or doesn't know is irrelevant. only a top filly wins that race from there I agree if the opponents in the race are top class, in my view in this case they weren't. |
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My point is, you are saying Qemah had excuses when beaten by La Cressonniere, La Cressonniere has never needed an excuse in here career, she has never looked like losing a race. Qemah has been beaten 3 times, shes a good miler but I dont think there is any doubt in France, or in Rougets stable, that La Cressonniere is their top horse this season.
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It was Rouget's second Group 1 winner in three days after his Qemah landed the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot.
The trainer said: "She can do it all. It is an absolute dream because she is just so good." A tearful Demuro echoed Rouget's comments, saying: "She is incredible. I said to myself at one stage we were too far back but I know her by heart and I knew she could do it." La Cressonnière is unbeaten in seven races. She won on Sunday, his second classic of the year. Having triumphed in the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches, she illustrates in the Prix de Diane Jean-Claude Rouget spoke on the set of Equidia Turf Club. "This is an extraordinary filly who pushes its limits at each of its outputs. It was not a certainty that it takes the distance but it did not cause him to worry. I'll take Rougets assessment over Sandowns. |