Horse Antepost
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I'm keeping the 3yos on side this year. Of the older brigade Duramente is the only one I'd want at this stage but is fast ground reliant. Flummoxed how Found and New Bay are so short.
I thought the Japs would have a string hand this year but note that Leontes now looks unlikely to target it, leaving just Makahiki, Satono Diamond and Dee Majesty. The Japanese Derby should tell us more.
Ultra appears to be injured - struggling to find much news on him. You'd have to give Cloth of Stars a shout. Don't know much about the French fillies or any of the Germans at this stage.
I thought the Japs would have a string hand this year but note that Leontes now looks unlikely to target it, leaving just Makahiki, Satono Diamond and Dee Majesty. The Japanese Derby should tell us more.
Ultra appears to be injured - struggling to find much news on him. You'd have to give Cloth of Stars a shout. Don't know much about the French fillies or any of the Germans at this stage.
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Sorry I say "leaving just 3" I think the Japs have 11 in the mix at the moment. Just 3 of those I'd consider noteworthy 3yos,
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Chantilly in 2016.
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According to the Ceo Of Godolphin Mr Ferguson Ultra will miss the 1st part of the season after suffering a setback. Ultra has developed a splint and, as a result, missed training at a crucial time.
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I haven't seen a 3yo (bar Minding) who's excited me in any fashion - I'll keep my mind open on US Army Ranger, and a few other good types from O'Brien but then again he doesn't seem to be very interested in the race, unless it's with a Found - who is confirmed to be targeting it
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Have to like the look of Minding with the record of 3yo fillies in this.
What differences will Chantilly make to the race? I'm not well-versed in the pecliarities of French courses. |
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And Almanzor is (presumably?) a C + D winner now.
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the Arc will still be 12f won't it?
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Must be. I just don't know if Chantilly has more than one 12f course.
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Is postponed going to run this year?
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Pete, the French Derby is 10.5f.
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Zarak makes some appeal at 25/1. He didn't have the best of runs today but came a good second. He just won't be 25/1 come October given his profile/connections etc. And looks like he's improving for the trip.
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To the French it's the Prix de Jockey Club, not the Derby. In 2005 They shook up their race calendar when they reduced the race distance from 12f to 10.5f and raised the Grand Prix de Paris from 10.5f to 12f which makes a lot more sense as the pattern is now: Poule d'Essai de Poulains (May, 8f); Prix du Jockey Club (June, 10.5f); Grand Prix de Paris (July, 12f) - a natural progression of distances.
The Grand Prix de Paris is now the "French Derby". |
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Obv have to throw in Harzand and Fascinating Rock now, former on his connections' preferences and latter on the plan that's been laid out for him.
Minding would seem to have raced v hard at this stage and I doubt she'll let down with so many prizes still at stake, Found has been v disappointing, don't know about Highland Reel but he signed off last year in top fashion and if he's campaigned for the Autumn could be a goer. |
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You mean form boost? You could look at it like that on paper but their were reasons why he was beaten so far behind The Gurkha, though he would not have won anyway, and he's improved for the step up in trip so personally I don't see it as a form boost.
Zarak & Harzand same ownership but it's never been a problem in the past in the Arc. |
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Be wary of the French guineas form. The Gurkha was the last to be loaded into the stalls ims, most had been in a few minutes when one horse needed re plating
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Cheers Hippie
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I'm not a fan of Postponed despite his 'stroll' of a win, and his owner is arrogant and loathsome. But I do like Harzand given the probable going at Chantilly, and Minding even though her stamina in a true run 12f race has still to convince me. As A Shin Hikari is unlikely to run, according to trainer, Ultra is my other selection against the field.
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All over Harzand for this...Still think value in price at 6s ,bit higher at times on here.Postponed currently having problems.Still has it to prove for me in true G1 race,Cannot have Minding at all,would be running for about tenth time this season,all G1s if turning up,No chance...No french 3yo as yet has impressed me.La cressonerie some may say but looked likely non stayer same as Avenir Certain for connections.Flintshire mopping up in US,wont run.USAR going for 10f races..
new bay the other of interest if Little General can get him back.ran a stormer in top drawer race last year.This years renewal not as good. Harzand all the way. |
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The form of the Epsom Derby has held up well, and should Idaho run and win either the Great Voltigeur and/or the St Leger this can only increase the confidence behind Harzand; this has always been Harzand's target especially so after winning the Epsom Derby, and campaigned accordingly; Harzand is tough, gutsy and stays 12f really well in this year's mediocre renewal without Golden Horn and Treve - an excellent chance for Harzand, I think.
On the other hand, Minding has been on the go for a long while now, and unless connections give her a proper break eg no Irish Champion Stakes on 10th Sept (hopefully USAR runs well in the Juddmonte and gies there instead) she'd be found out at the business end of the race after such a hard racing programme. However, her ability to relax, stay and quicken off a strong pace in races should see her in good stead, I think. |
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Harzand looks great value at 6/1 - can see him being 2/1 or shorter on the day, Max bet material imo.
I have also been throwing a few quid away week by week on One Foot In Heaven at 200/1+ - out of the brilliant mare Pride he has been brought along very quietly and never got a run in his first big test in the Grand Peix Saint Cloud last time. |
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Uncle, personally think Harzand slightly flattered by achievements and would much prefer US Army Ranger at 12/1 if he runs, although he might take the St Leger route?
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almost no chance of USAR running in the leger
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For a horse on the morning of the Derby with an affected foot in a bucket of ice for 4hrs arising from a dislodged shoe and yet won the race was nothing but exception and a miracle - the rest is history.
If USAR was to run in the Leger then at least he must be aimed at the Great Voltigeur instead of the Juddmonte. Also, any horse running in the Leger is very unlikely to run in the 'Arc' 3 weeks later. I'd like to see Minding run in this race - she deserves it - and is good for the game; she'd have very chance if given a proper break prior. Apparently, there was money for Minding here yesterday. Let's hope she runs her. |
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Quite keen on New Bay at 14/1. I'll see how he gets on in his gp3. AF said there was a bug in the yard in spring, so they probably want to ease him back in. I wonder what the thinking behind usar is. If he's progressive, and nothing has upset him, then why would a derby 2nd miss big targets and go for a gp3. Light arc campaign or injury set back ?
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If New Bay is in similar form as last year he could run a very big race without Treve and Golden Horn present. Another forgotten horse is Ultra whose return run even though did not win was respectable having been off the track for such a long time.
On breeding USAR ought to be running here but the opposition is much greater than the Juddmonte; the Juddmonte is a much easier race to win, and despite USAR's high cruising speed he had not shown the ability to quicken and sustain it over 12f as evidenced in the Epsom Derby and Chester Vase. Hence, I believe (probably connections too) 12f could be stretching his stamina to the limit, and I can understand the thinking behind running him in the Juddmonte instead. As for the 'Arc' Coolmore have Minding, Order Of St George and Found to call upon, a formidable team to do battle with Harzand, Postponed and the others. |
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USAR is definitely still very interesting given how lightly raced he is and there could certainly be plenty of mileage in his odds of 12/1 but I'd still rather take the 6/1 on Harzand given he is a definite runner (bar injury) and he is unlikely to run before hand so there isn't the chance he will get beat and his odds drift.
New Bay is with the right connections and has very decent form but I just feel a truly run 12f is going to stretch him. |
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La Cressonniere 14/1 for me, I think she will stay.
Her dam by Galileo was a maiden but ran 6 times, 4 times at 12f, once at 11f and once at 13f, shes a half sister to a 12f winner and another who stayed 12f, full sister to 10f G2 Blandford Stakes placed Paris Winds. Le Havre can produce stayers with the right mares as shown by 1m7 Group 2 winner Auvray. I didnt fancy Avenir Certain to stay but there is a much stronger case for La Cressonniere. I said before the French Guineas I have not seen a filly this season with the gears to match her, she done incredibly well to win a slowly run French Oaks from a poor position, taking a bump in the straight as well. She can sit anywhere in a race, has proven herself on the track and should be going in with a perfect preparation touch wood. I like Harzand and I think the Derby is the best 3yo form but im not convinced Chantilly will play to his strengths and he is probably draw dependent. Minding has the class but I dont think she has been campaigned to win an Arc. Postponed has looked top class this season but with the weight allowance, it will take something special to go with the filly in the straight. To me, gears win Arcs, not stamina.  |
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La Cressonniere is an astute choice - she could easily be another Minding. Maybe these two fillies will fight out the finish should Minding take this route.
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Thanks for the insight lads. I'm no expert on horse racing, as it probably shows! Glad the consensus is no Leger for The Ranger
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if Almanzor gets the trip,should run
a big race if he turns up. 40s+ on here,too big. Class horse this. GL ALL |
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it looks like postponed has a favourites chance , i prefer 3yos in this myself . harzand is entered in ireland (champion) on the weekend of the prix niel i think ,also at ascot for champions day . my feeling is hes being primed to win in ireland then they hope he can hold his form for ascot . as he wouldnt be suited to america it feels like theyre erring towards these two races rather than the arc as surely hed run in the niel if that was his target .ive backed zarak , with his breeding i think its all about the arc , almanzour as a saver as he seems to have zaraks number at present though like i say i think it might be different on arc day
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i wouldnt put anyone of la cressionerre but its the first time she will face the colts . at this stage i see no formlines against colts so hard to predict if shes that good or just beating a poor bunch of fillies
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hmm the more i think of it the more i think la cress may well be correct . zarak prolly beat too much i wont reverse my position on him if i could but i think la cress is a very good shout
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hmm the more i think of it the more i think la cress may well be correct . zarak prolly beat too much i wont reverse my position on him if i could but i think la cress is a very good shout
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Harzand may well run in Ireland - but as a prep for the Arc. Entries aren't in yet for the Prix Niel so he may prep there. The Aga Khan will have no ultimate target for Harzand other than the Arc.
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I agree, the 'Arc' is the number 1 target for Harzand, but he may go for a 'prep' race in the Irish Champion Stakes even though the distance is a bit short; I also prefer the 3yr olds eg Harzand, La Cressioniere and Minding to the their elders; I'm still not convinced by Postponed despite caning Found and Found ran a sound race against Seventh Heaven in the Darley Oaks yesterday.
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