Horse Antepost
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Okay, I know there is King George thread but how can I ignore this .... SC at 12/1 what value... you have to remember he was more or less the same price last year after running below expectations in the Charlie Hall Chase and went on to win the Betfair Chase and KG. What I like about SC he won the KG last year and be hailed a cert for Chelt Gold Cup and when he loses that race by 27l ... people say he is past it and then goes on to win the Denman Chase...
I think he is that type of horse... its all about his jumping, and off course the track...
His run can be forgiven last time... he ran against Brother Tedd, who did not do much next time out... and I don't think that would have put him right, I think he needed that 'put in place moment' that Cue Card provided in the Betfair Chase. That's the run that will put him right...
I think SC is the biggest danger and I would not have imagined the price so big..
Good Luck
I think he is that type of horse... its all about his jumping, and off course the track...
His run can be forgiven last time... he ran against Brother Tedd, who did not do much next time out... and I don't think that would have put him right, I think he needed that 'put in place moment' that Cue Card provided in the Betfair Chase. That's the run that will put him right...
I think SC is the biggest danger and I would not have imagined the price so big..
Good Luck
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Name me a decent horse Conti has beat when he has won a grade 1 chase,a career that consists of smashing up 2 and half milers in 3 mile chases apart from beating a past his best Long Run.
His best ever performance was in the Feltham 2011. |
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Not SC fault that he has beaten a poor bunch of 3 milers, but i slightly agree but SC price is a price that tells us, name 3 to beat him ?
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Good placing of a horse.I would rather back SC than CC myself.
Need Giggistown to send some horses over,otherwise on paper Coneygree if he runs. |
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I'll name 4 to beat him. Cue Card, obviously, plus Don Cossack, Vautor and Conygree if he runs.
If they all turn up, and SC runs the race of his life, I think he'll be fifth, the market is spot on for me, except that Cue Card should be favourite. Fantastic race this year. |
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Would certainly agree that Conti is at his best at Xmas,and he is probably over priced.
But if Coneygree runs he will not have his own way in front. Don Cossack I believe is a better horse,and I think Vautour is as well....but has to prove he stays. Cue card has failed in this race before,but it seems reasons where there for that,and he has shown he is in good form this season. All in all he could be value,but if Coneygree turns up I cannot see Conti winning. If he don't turn up he has DC,CC and Vautour to beat. Think he has a fair chance of a place,but either Coneygree or DC for the win imo. |
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Have to agree that 12/1 is great value. I'm on.
I hope though the Lexus attracts Coneygree. It would be most unlucky if SC doesn't turn up. Blinkers on, and in his prime, I can't see 3 to beat him. In any case an easy trade on the day, previous dual winner can't go off at more than 8/1 max I don't think??? |
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I advised him at 14/1 in the Betfair Chase thread for much the same reasons as the OP.
Still wouldn't be 100% sure that Vautour and/or Don Cossack will show up and Conygree can't be a certain starter either. If this wet weather continues through to Christmas then SC is going to be very hard to keep out of the frame. |
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I'd be surprised if Coneygree and DC turn up.
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Think DC is nailed on to turn up. Why wouldn't he?
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Time will tell but not sure theyll want to run against Vautour yet. Not a certainty that Vautour stays the GC distance at Cheltenham but almost certain to get 3 miles at Kempton - two very very different things.
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it's the race for Don Cossack. He won't run in the Lexus as others for the owners will be there.
Be amazed if he don't come over,and a tad bemused to be honest. |
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see blues around oddschecker for Silviniaco - I hope pricewise has not tipped it... might have my last dabble on it tomorrow morning before all the value is gone.
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Pricewise on KG tomorrow so Im guessing your worst fears are about to come true - its been "pricewised"!!!!
I on too btw but e/w as I think Don Coassack is the real deal. |
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Tom's on e/w
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not sure i like this bet tbh...first time blinkers will need to work the miracle however i'm not so keen, good luck iris
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Interesting Toms comments about Silvianaco CONTI - blinkers ?? Yeah maybe that will sharpen him up but for me his fitness was more in question...
He was quite laboured in the final few fences the horse wasn't fit or himself.... SC is a horse that is never forgiven for his poor runs... I think Kempton will light him up a real flat track will always bring the very best out of him. Biggest thing against the horse winning is pricewise. |
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That's silly talk! Cos someone else fancies him, that will alter the result?
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expectations increases - jockey nerves... it all resonates...
but yeah it is silly talk in principle. |
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Yes, I'm sure Fehily will be getting very nervous about riding the antepost Pricewise tip...
Your initial tip was right though imo; 12/1 is far too big. I'd still say 9/1 is slightly overpriced too, depending on who runs. If Don Cossack, Vautour, Coneygree, Cue Card and Smad Place all run, he will probably be that price on the day. |
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I don't think Coneygree is turning up now is he, lexus bound am sure. As for Vautour, I just wonder if mullin's horses just aren't right as a principle rule at the moment and king has already said no kg for sp
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I suspect you may be right regarding Coneygree and the Lexus, but I wouldn't be too surprised to see connections change their minds. £10000 to supplement I believe, but surely he will place and win them more than that back.
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King said today that Smad Place could yet run in the King George. The Cotswold still seems to be the plan, but he's not ruling out Kempton any more. I think they should go for it personally; Cheltenham never seems to have brought out the best in him.
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Very odd logic by Segal. Didn't select Don Cossack or Vautour because their price will lengthen if Coneygree or Smad Place turn up, but fails to see that so, too, will Silviniaco's odds. Seemed a very half-hearted tip, with no conviction to me. He certainly made no attempt to argue how the top three in the market will be beaten by his selection.
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Price is right for conti now, wont lengthen now even if coneygree, smad and only shortens again if they don't turn up. Look on oddschecker, you can work out easily now where the bookies overrounds will likely come from.
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Smad will turn up I think
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to bigger pull isnt it
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wonder if they run djackadam and not vatour, dont see it with vautour
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Fashion I dont in any way see Djakadam going to Kempton. Vautour if well/fit goes there.
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Nichols form shocking as well so if they are coming back over the next few weeks you gotta think Conti for those that got 12s was a shrewd bit of punting.
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Without seeing this season's Betfair chase I would say he had a very good chance but I did see that race and Cue Card made him look second rate. I can't see that form being overturned.
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If I were making a case for SC to reverse the Haydock form,I would say his best race in the last 2 seasons has been at kempton.
I do happen to think though that on his day Cue Card is a better horse,just depends if Boxing Day is one of those days. |
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Well Cue Card has failed at Kempton before but I'm prepared to believe there were valid excuses. In 2013 SC reversed the Betfair Chase form when Cue Card stopped as though he was shot. He looked to me like he didn't stay the trip at that pace, but with hindsight it was probably the trapped epiglottis.
If you compare this year's Haydock run with the one two years ago the gap between the two horses has widened. Cue Card has gone forward or SC has gone back or both. Maybe again SC wasn't fully fit for the race and I'll be interested to see if Nicholls admits he got his pre-race assessment wrong, the way Skelton was honest about Three Musketeers after he blew up first time out. Lack of fitness was SCs excuse in 2013 and it proved valid but is a harder sell this time. |
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Nicholls said prior to the Betfair Chase that he wasn't entirely happy with Conti and that he could have done with a couple of weeks more to get him ready.
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Maybe he gave you a different message if you spoke to him. I can only go by his betfair blog released the morning of the race and which can still be read on here.
"He has come on no end for his run over hurdles at Kempton and goes to Haydock with all guns blazing." As with Moore on Saturday, if you know the trainer you stand a better chance of receiving the truth but if you rely on media reporting you're stuck with mixed messages. |
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just cant have vatour at all for this, his 2 best perfomance have been in march at chelters, if he jumps left the penalty points will add up and never helps stamina
cue card gaurented to go well, but has a horse won this one the fourth attempt ? conti looked woeful in the betfair, surley be backing him on past performaces thou I see can a little juice if you got 12s. don cossack only horse capable of running to high 170s and think he will love round here, stays strong, just hope its not to soft dont see coneygree turning up if he does will be totally different race expect 4/1 the field boxing day morning good luck all as always |
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I didn't see his Betfair blog on Betfair Chase day, but on the Morning Line he was very keen to play down Conti's chances, and the horse did drift quite badly on the run up to the race. I suspect he probably won't be good enough to be the likes of Don Cossack nowadays anyway.
I don't think I want to be getting too much more involved in this race until all of the Christmas running plans are confirmed. As the above poster says, probably better to wait to the day. |
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you can say he drifted stafford but a right good punt took place on cue card, so he had to drift did he not?
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Fair enough AC but rather confirms my point that you get mixed messages from the racing media. The Morning Line in particular is run as a bookies benefit these days.
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Autocue
Your synopsis conveniently overlooks the 2014 running of both races when SC destroyed CC by 12l in the Betfair and by further in the King George or did that year not count? Its amazing how many people on this forum cherry-pick stats to make them fit their argument. Ive made the point earlier in this thread that you are not trying to tell me its taken this long to discover he had a breathing problem that affected his performance to such such an extent. Trapped epiglotis or not I would back SC around Kempton any day in a match with CC and believe the change of headgear will be the difference. We will see!! |