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KING GEORGE - SILVINIACO CONTI 12/1
KING GEORGE - SILVINIACO CONTI 12/1
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Cue Card is clearly a very different horse this year to last and I think he should be favourite. Think Don Cossack may make too many mistakes and Vautour still not guaranteed to start or stay.
With regard to SC Noel Fehily was on Talksport the morning of the Betfair and he was very concerned that the prep run over hurdles may not have been taxing enough to get SC fully fit. Hae still ran an excellent race until between the last two and we know Kempton plays to his strengths (jumping at speed and staying 3m well) so the original e/w shout at double figure odds was a great call. |
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I'd rather consider this season's form than last season's form betilyered and expect you to be red faced on Boxing Day with that match bet.
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Also I think anyone who takes Cue Card's form in the Betfair Chase in 2014 as representative of his ability has lost the plot. It bears no comparison to his runs in 2013 or 2015 so rather than cherry picking or conveniently overlooking it I made what I think was a reasonable decision to ignore his form from last season.
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You cant have it both ways Autocue saying you you would rather consider this years form than last years but then comparing 2013 years running to this years in terms of the "widening gap".
Which is it to be? That was my point. Did last year not happen? Uncle above makes a very valid point regarding Fehilys comments.If you saw Nichols speaking on the morning line you could tell he was trying to convince himself that SC would be fighting fit but a picture paints a thousand words and he didnt convince me. One things for sure, neither will have an excuse come King george day but its 2-0 Conti at Kempton and regardless who wins the race Id rather side with the horse who has the "been there, done that" t-shirt than the one wearing the "tried it but couldnt hack it" one. Come on Conti!! |
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I'm not having it both ways. My King George opinion that Cue Card will prove better than SC relies on no other form than this year's Betfair Chase. I also happen to think the gap between the horses is wider now than it was in 2013 giving Cue Card the opportunity to reverse previous Kempton form. I am drawing a line through Cue Card's form last season in the belief that he had breathing problems and following an operation he has emerged as good as ever to my eyes. I believe both horses need excuses. Cue Card has question marks over his Kempton form and SC has question marks over his fitness at Haydock. I hope that spells my opinion out for you as I can't be bothered repeating it again and will let the horses do the talking.
We'll no doubt revisit this thread after Boxing Day. Let's hope both get to the race and get round safely with no hard luck stories. Then one of us can wipe the egg off our face. |
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I think it will be proved to be the case that the betfair chs rather fell apart in time and CC won as he liked cos he beat horses not up to the task on the day and/or who were reasonably unfit/ground dependant. SC better on good ground around Kempton at Xmas is he not
 After all, SC beat the same bunch of horses CC beat this time around when arguably CC wasn't right and CC beat the same horse when by all intense and purposes SC looked to not be fit, he certainly did blow up badly between the last two fences before running on at the same pace. All the hallmarks of a horse that wasn't fit enough for the task at hand.It's going to be a cracker thats for sure. What ever side you side with and put your hard earned on. For myself i just trade them all and happy with that but above is my opinion fwiw GL  |
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SC is better on good ground? Can't have that, but I wouldn't be surprised if your assessment of the Betfair turns out to be correct.
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The main argument against SC winning this is surely that Cue Card is back to his best and SC cannot beat him when he's fit. We all saw Cue Card stop in 2013 KG. That wasn't him not staying, it was an issue, be it the first signs of his pelvis going or his breathing issues. Up until the penultimate fence Cue Card made SC look like a handicapper, as he did in the Betfair Chase earlier that season. And as he did in the Betfair Chase again this year. With a fit again Cue Card in the race it does not matter how good Vautour and Don Cossack are or whether they turn up. SC simply cannot win. The only way SC can win is if Cue Card genuinely does not stay +3m, but personally I find that argument very hard to follow. To me he looks like he stays.
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Mary CC has had 3 tries at winning the King Geo and failed. Does that not say something
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barneys predicting good to soft for boxing day
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If the G/S forecast proves to be accurate then that's perfect ground for all and no excuses after the race imo
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really hope coneygree runs, will anyone be bold enough to take it on up front, if so they would be cutting there own throats. then again if they don't there jumping will be put under extreme pressure when trying to reel him in, interesting !
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I'm on Conti EW, but if Coneygree turns up then the value has gone IMO.
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I really can't see Coneygree running over Christmas. I have a feeling he's still not at his best. We'll see.
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Can't see Vautour coming over if Coneygree is a runner.
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Unless it gets very soft would expect Vautour to run regardless of opposition.
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Coneygree is the last horse his connections want to see in the line up.
The soft ground may well be the excuse. |
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I will be surprised if Vautour is not at Kempton. If Conygree's connections are so sure of their horse why dont they pay their 10K - the prize money for the King Geo is about 1.8 times that for the Lexus. Jasey I reckon you have it ass-about-face.
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What did I tell you yesterday lunchtime? I'm better at detecting bullsh!t than winners, more's the pity.
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Does this open the door for Smad Place to run?
Surely one of their concerns would have been the fear of getting into a battle up front with Coneygree. Now thats out of the equation Im tempted to have a bit on him at 14's to follow home SC! |
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Leeds have more chance of getting into the premiership than that forecast coming up
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Steady Autocue. You can slag off my racehorse selections but leave my team alone.
Dont mock the afflicted  |
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I wouldn't want to mock any genuine supporter and given you stuck with Leeds you definitely fall into that category! Good luck with your selections and make the most of Christmas day.
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i wonder if they will leave djackadam in on monday
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People trying to crab Vautour based on his half fit prep run lto is bad idea imo. I've no doubt 3 miles around Kempton will be right up his street and the sheer level of praise Mullins and Walsh have heaped on this horse combined with his bonkers JLT win show he's a top notcher imv.
People will want to say he doesn't stay but he's by Robin Des Champs and he's sired Sir Des Champs, Tour Des Champs and Quinz who've all won at 3m+ When I look at Vautours rivals I see Don Cossack and I can't pin down any bit of form of his which I'd want to hang my hat on. His 2 wins this season were at odds on against joke opposition. His win in the Melling was against what exactly? Cue Card who couldn't breath, Champagne Fever blundered away his chance. Then in the Punchestown Gold Cup he beat two horses who had a brutal Gold Cup and that form isn't one to rate highly. After all Boston Bob won both races the season before. Cue Card is back to his best but I've never fully thought he's as good right handed as left. Plus his wins have come in England where tbh I don't rate the staying chase division. Conti may just need further than 3 miles these days and hos drift on betfair chase day may have pointed to something in his wellness. I've a feeling Vautour is just a cut above these and will go show it. |
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I'm with you CVB. Hope he jump out and makes it.
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Do we think he'll make the running throughout or just sit in behind Fehily for a circuit? I've got no doubt he will prove to be a superstar, but I'm somewhat concerned that the form of his runs right-handed or in the winter don't seem to come close to his left-handed spring runs.
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Well my view is that clearly something was the cause of his poor run at xmas last year and last season we know he was trained to only peak at Cheltenham. The idea that he won't be fit and ready for the King George is silly imv. The only way is if they have already 100% set on Gold Cup otherwise how can they learn about him over the trip if he's not at peak fitness. They can then go straight to Cheltenham. He's 2 years younger than Don Cossack and 3 younger than Conti & Cue Card so he's open to improvement and I think the step up in trip will bring out improvement from him.
As for tactics the reason they made the running in Supreme and JLT is because they knew they were on the best horses and he'd stay futher than the trip he was running. It proved right both times as he stormed up the hill. I think Conti will set a fast gallop and Ruby will be happy to sit in behind it, he'll have no worries taking it up if he feels his horse wants to go on. Rewatch his last win on Kauto Star it's probably the best ride he's ever given him. He knows Kauto is quick and presses on down the back which catches rival out, especially Long Run. Ruby and Mullins will love that they're not going in here as red hot favourites with all eyes on them. Though in my view Vautour is the best horse in the race and none of his rivals are the real threats to him in the Gold Cup. I think Don Cossack will come 3rd probably and then go back for the Ryanair at Cheltenham. 14/1 to win both races and 3/1 for King George will look like gems in a weeks time. Mullins said Vautour is "on another level" to Faugheen. Something I think he was proved right about at Cheltenham and will be proved right about again. |
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14/1 £3.60 max bet.Any other bookies offering prices on the double
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Paddy and Betfair
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McLeans in Northern Ireland 14/1 too.
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Lots of blue appearing about Smad Place last 10 mins suggesting he is going to Kempton. Have had a dabble at 14-1.
Shaping up to be a cracker. |
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Confirmed on RP website. I've taken the 12/1 that remains. He will surely be shorter than that on the day.
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Going to be a hugely competitive race and will surely be run a real clip now. Plenty more wet stuff due this week so I can't see it being anything other than very testing.
Vautour and Cue Card will definitely have to stay every yard and for various reasons I just don't fancy Don Cossack at all (if my past record is anything to go by he will hose up now). Might back SC e/w again if he drifts out to double figures on the day. |
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Smad Place the likely winner if he remains in the Hennessy form. Compton form as well. He looks a vastly improved horse this term and although you may have expected the likes of CC and perhaps Vatour to do the same as he did in the hennessy it was still an eye popping performance. Another Grey day looms on boxing day at kempton
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*Kempton
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Although he was very impressive in the Hennessy, I can't see how beating a 139 rated horse, a couple of has beens and a couple of others who haven't boosted the form subsequently entitles him to win a strong looking King George. Glad he's running though as he will definitely add to the spectacle.
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I'd be far more interested in Smad Place if he had been targeted at the race. Maybe he always was, but was trained to concert pitch for his main aim imo
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i think the reality is he beat fresh air at Newbury. The manner in which he went about it is the key factor and the fact that he finished the race out so well marks him down as a massive player in this.
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As we have seen in so many years - winning a Hennessey entitles you to be a strong contender in these types of races, also worth remembering he was a neck second in the RSA chase few years back ... so for me fits that "class" mould.
I actually think Kempton is more suitable for Smad place than Chelt being a flat track, and it would be ridiculous to discount him... must have solid each way prices. Also means prices will be a lot more competitive on the day. |