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25 Nov 15 21:13
Date Joined: 17 Jul 04
| Topic/replies: 1,971 | Blogger: IrisDeBalme's blog
Okay, I know there is King George thread but how can I ignore this .... SC at 12/1 what value... you have to remember he was more or less the same price last year after running below expectations in the Charlie Hall Chase and went on to win the Betfair Chase and KG.  What I like about SC he won the KG last year and be hailed a cert for Chelt Gold Cup and when he loses that race by 27l ... people say he is past it and then goes on to win the Denman Chase...

I think he is that type of horse... its all about his jumping, and off course the track...

His run can be forgiven last time... he ran against Brother Tedd, who did not do much next time out... and I don't think that would have put him right, I think he needed that 'put in place moment' that Cue Card provided in the Betfair Chase.  That's the run that will put him right...

I think SC is the biggest danger and I would not have imagined the price so big..

Good Luck
Pause Switch to Standard View KING GEORGE - SILVINIACO CONTI 12/1
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Report Somerset Sam December 25, 2015 11:50 AM GMT
Showing my age here, but does anybody remember when the King George had to pass morning inspections for overnight frost? Whoops
Report ACStafford December 25, 2015 11:03 PM GMT
Only a few years ago when it was abandoned. Seems hard to remember what a cold winter was like!
Report Ibrahima Sonko December 25, 2015 11:20 PM GMT
I went to re-fixture in early Jan, remembered why i hadnt been back since 1998 all so soon, horrid place for the viewer/punter/traveller.

I still reckon the ground will be at least soft (rained all day in berkshire and my trip to hampshire)

If the ground was good i would be all over Vautour, my only bet so far is on smad place (10/1 ew) as i think the ground will suit him and maybe they have realised that he is so one paced their is only one way to ride him.

Admire Don Cossack but their is too much good ground in his formlines and his run in the ryanair still haunts me, i know he is better than that.

With Cue Card you are just guessing.

Whatever differentiating views on the race are it is going to be a cracker.
Report harry callaghan December 25, 2015 11:53 PM GMT
still a brutal race to fathom but don cossack is pretty solid and i think most things are actually in his favour here, he should be able to just stalk the speed with so many prominent runners and if good enough win... valseur lido is an interesting rag here imo and is still well a horse we don't know enough about just to pass over lightly at 30 on here...vautour i have no doubt is a very good horse and i do believe you are getting the right price but there just looks to many ifs and ands pots and pans against him, he must just bolt up but i have to just watch him win...cue card just isn't for me and i do believe you can pick a lot of holes in his rating from haddock...smad place can run well as can al ferof if backing up

small stakes for me and a cracker in prospect
Report The Dragon December 26, 2015 11:11 AM GMT
sc each way and DC to win for me
Report FELTFAIR December 26, 2015 12:04 PM GMT
Race to watch really as anyone of five or six has the form to win this on their day but had to back Vautour each way who has never let me down for a couple of years.
Report CVByrne December 26, 2015 1:50 PM GMT
I'd be very Surprised if Vautour or Don Cossack didn't win this. Both would need to disappoint for Cue Card or Sil Conti to win. Smad Place would need to improve considerably on his best form to win this.

I'm looking forward to the race.
Report CVByrne December 26, 2015 3:25 PM GMT
I'll never be able to come to terms with that. I feel physically sick
Report BornToWin December 26, 2015 3:25 PM GMT
A barnstormer, and to get the winner on the nod utterly delightful.
Report jasey December 26, 2015 3:31 PM GMT
I can't come to terms with it either.
Report unclepuncle December 26, 2015 3:31 PM GMT
Fantastic race.

SC ran deplorably but a saver win bet on CC at 5/1 a few weeks ago (I did say he should be favourite) and a big place lay of Don Cossack today (said I was worried about his jumipng) meant I won on the race.

DC made a really bad mistake at about the 7th or 8th fence and given he hardly travelled at all the fact he was closing at the time of his fall I have to think if he had stood up he would have outstayed the pair of them.
Report jasey December 26, 2015 3:35 PM GMT
Conti was up against his achilles heel grade 1 horses.
Report jasey December 26, 2015 3:37 PM GMT
I backed Vautour but convinced the Don would have won that.
Report Autocue December 26, 2015 3:43 PM GMT
Should be a few red faces on this thread Blush
Report shockster December 26, 2015 4:13 PM GMT
Great race and well done Cue Card & deserves to go for the £1 million bonus in the Gold Cup. Has looked totally revitalised this season. Vautour looks a nailed on certainty for the Ryanair.  He had the race sewn up here and now can't see them going Gold Cup over another 2 1/2f at Cheltenham especially as Djakadam in the same ownership.  Don Cossack, would he, wouldn't he, we'll never know.  What we do know now though is that he doesn't jump well enough in real TOP TOP races. Fell in the RSA, mistakes in the Ryanair last season and now another fall here. Tons of ability but can he put it all together with a clear round, not sure myself. Al Ferof and Smad Place ran OK but not good enough at this level. S.Conti has to be considered on the decline now. Will run his race at Aintree, but be surprised if something doesn't beat him.

Very informative race.
Report harry callaghan December 26, 2015 4:38 PM GMT
born to win - enjoy, plus other supporters

unlucky vautour supporters was a tricky race and i was with you, the petrol gauge did go red however, he would of won if winging the last just a tad unfortunate and the winner found plenty...i thought he stayed just not enough though

shame the don hit the deck as he was just starting to find, could of been a 3 way isn't the first time he has come up short

anyway on a day when we saw a future gold cup winner in another race, all in all it was a good race
Report unclepuncle December 26, 2015 4:41 PM GMT
harry callaghan
26 Dec 15 16:38

anyway on a day when we saw a future gold cup winner in another race, all in all it was a good race

Care to elaborate Harry?
Report buddeliea December 26, 2015 4:58 PM GMT
great race,and could have been even better had DC not fallen.

Conclusions for the festival..... Cue card big player in the Gold Cup,likewise Don Cossack. Vautour to the Ryanair.
Conti retirement? Not sure where he can go now.
Al ferof staying on and will probably be in the Gold cup as an outsider.
Smad Place to go for Gold Cup and try and. make all,but not really good enough in this class.
Report Saritamer December 26, 2015 5:02 PM GMT
presume you mean Douvan Harry?
Report harry callaghan December 26, 2015 5:04 PM GMT
ah punkle - i don't like to nail myself to the mast punkle and not doing any ante post at present, not sure he is good enough, i want a price about him for this years novice just not sure he'll go but i like him a lot for the future and he lost nothing in defeat today
Report harry callaghan December 26, 2015 5:10 PM GMT
just in regards smad place i thought the race came a tad to soon for him, it's a tough race the hennessy and i think we can forgive him, his next run will tell us whether he really isn't up to a decent standard
Report Saritamer December 26, 2015 5:18 PM GMT
See More Business and Looks like Trouble were pulled up in King George after winning previous race in the season they won the Gold Cup so reasonable point re Smad Place. Looks big ask though.
Report shockster December 26, 2015 5:27 PM GMT
See More Business and Looks Like Trouble were already proven G1 winners when they pulled up and had off days.  Smad Place is a good horse but not a G1 horse and this is in the form book for all to see if you want to see??  He is in a bad place now.  168 (laughable) is way too high for handicaps and now has to go weight for age route with little chance of winning IMO.  Hopefully handicapper will drop him to 162ish which is a fair increase on the 155 he ran off in the Hennessy.
Report CVByrne December 26, 2015 5:41 PM GMT
Conclusions. Vautour doesn't stay enough to win a Gold Cup. Cue Card is a player but his win today was a combination of Vautour tiring and Cue Card staying on. He might tire himself in a Gold Cup. Don Cossack would seem like he'd be better in a Gold Cup as he was a little run off his feet here but was staying on.

Al Ferof goes for Ryanair now. Smad Place will too as he was totally outclassed here as expected. Conti to go for the National I'd say. He will be dropped below Many Clouds rating I'd imagine.
Report Saritamer December 26, 2015 6:11 PM GMT
Looks Like Trouble had won the Sun Alliance the previous year but looked like coming off 2nd best there when Nick Dundee fell 3 out but that is being pedantic and the point is taken that both he and See More Business were proven G1 performers. Think Smad Place is probably short of winning a Gold Cup in what looks a vintage year.
Think Don Cossack would have been involved in finish today and going back to the way he surged after the last at Punchestown could still just about win the Gold Cup. Personally Djakadam looks the perfect Gold Cup horse to me, travels, jumps and stays with no flat spots, definitely could be excused being beaten by DC at Punchestown after a gut wrenching run in Gold Cup.
Report Autocue December 26, 2015 6:30 PM GMT
Smad Place failed in ten grade 1s before today's race. His handicap form never looked good enough and it was noticeable King ducked his best chance of winning, ie. taking it on early which was said to be a key reason for his rejuvenation this season, so even the trainer didn't think he was up to it against today's opposition. At Newbury he beat a 139 rated horse, a couple of has beens and another two who haven't boosted the form. I thought 4th place was a decent run for him but don't see where he goes from here as he'll likely face Cue Card in the Gold Cup and Vautour in the Ryanair.
Report Fashion Fever December 26, 2015 6:45 PM GMT
does anyone know what price don cossack was on here just before 2 out

just watched again he was neck up on cue card
Report shockster December 26, 2015 6:59 PM GMT
Anybody else on here think Don Cossack has jumping issues?  Wherever he goes at Cheltenham he's going to be under pressure.  Will his jumping stand the test?

It's got to be considered now as today is certainly not a 1 off.
Report betilyerded December 26, 2015 7:19 PM GMT
Well done to all Cue Card backers - shame Don Cossack fell as would have been there at the death.

Tactics on Smad Place were questionable at best and SC clearly didnt run his race so lets not get too excited but nonetheless some are a little better off and some a little poorer after today.

Certainly no red faces though as some may suggest.
Report IrisDeBalme December 26, 2015 7:20 PM GMT
Autocue  • December 26, 2015 3:43 PM GMT 

Should be a few red faces on this thread

Yes definitely - Not sure why Silviniaco Conti ran so badily - clearly horse is not the same - would have expected him to get a place considering Al Ferof did... so bit confused there.

As for arguments about New vs Old brigade - clearly not much between them on that running... and was not as informative as people might think

- Mullins did state that Vautour was not focused on KG but Gold Cup - so based on that, that run was pretty impressive, if he had him 90% fit... well, more to come.  He is a Gold Cop contender and 10/1 is an insult to his price.  I'm sure he is unbeaten at Cheltenham and would perform better on better ground. Connections should not be so disheartened - to lead from the front was impressive.

- Don Cossack - Cant discount him at all - seems to not bring his A game on the big day - but based on that run would have seriously gone close - that's a conundrum horse indeed... but clearly has potential.

- Finally, Cue Card - what a difference that operation made failed so many times at Kempton and so rejuvenated and fulfilling that early promise, Now going for the million - I was surprised he was 7s for GC snapped at that. If he hadn't hit that last so hard would have been not as close.

But well done to winners. Hopefully one of the KG will go on to win the Gold Cup.
Report IrisDeBalme December 26, 2015 7:21 PM GMT
but which one?
Report Fashion Fever December 26, 2015 7:29 PM GMT
diagree with vautor think the petrol was running out before the last,

cant see him getting up the hill gold cup trip

surley the ryanair
Report Eeternaloptimist December 26, 2015 8:01 PM GMT
Probably more questions than answers coming from that race. Wouldn't say any of the first two or Don Cossack if he sorts his jumping out are without a chance in the gold cup. Vautour is better left handed, unbeaten at Cheltenham and despite Ricci saying he was 20 kilos lighter for his first run I can't think they had him 100% for today. Cue Card also very much likes Cheltenham and he was the one staying on at the death. Don Cossack has made a series of mistakes throughout his career at the top level and hasn't seemed the same horse at Cheltenham but he did seem to be staying on today despite a poor ride and possibly the course not suiting.
Report Pleasegivemeanailedontip December 26, 2015 8:20 PM GMT
Glad mullins not ruling vautour out of the gold cup (i have not backed him for it)

Cant really understand (not saying anyones wrong) how he can finish a nose down in the KG and be labelled a ryanair horse. Different day, different start, one slightly better jump and hed be a KG winner who doggedly stays on, never gives up, even when conditions not in his favour etc
Report Saritamer December 26, 2015 8:42 PM GMT
Have to agree re Vautour, totally entitled to tire after taking it up early and jumping with real gusto. Silviniaco ran them into the ground last year and ground it out out the year before both times looking like a right stayer but has then run at Cheltenham like the complete opposite is the case, showing that everything can't be taken completely at face value. The theory re different day, course, going etc is spot on and the 10/1 for Vautour is massive, can't see how anyone can say that today proves he can't win a Gold Cup conclusively.
Report IrisDeBalme December 26, 2015 8:44 PM GMT
Totally agree Pleasegivemeanailedontip   

If he won - he would be considered a contender.  The truth is this race is not his primary target which was made clear by Mullins earlier in the week... in fact it was a bit unusual for him to state that. But March he will be at his peak.

If there is a negative, he might set up for Cue Card like in the KG.

But having said that - this is a seriously good horse... I think he is better than Djakadam... and at his first try at 3m he merits some respect... to get that close to Cue Card and only 6 years old merits more respect.  He will win the Gold Cup this year or next.

As for Don Cossack he definitely stayed on and has more of an engine - not sure jockey pressed the 'panic' or 'go' button but was unusual to fall like that. Wouldn't want to be that jockey heading back to trainer.
Report Can't Catch Me December 26, 2015 8:49 PM GMT
If they didn't own Djakadam I'd agree that wouldn't put you off going for the GC. But the fact they do, and Ruby and Mullins will want to win as many races as possible (as will RR anyway), means it will be pretty straight forward to talk him into the Ryanair imo.

But agree the prices seem wrong. As low as 5/4 for the Rayanir ffs!
Report Saritamer December 26, 2015 8:55 PM GMT
Yeah Djakadam is a big problem as he seems totally ideal for the Gold Cup and unlike Gigginstown RR doesn't seem keen at all on running them against each other.
Report IrisDeBalme December 26, 2015 9:05 PM GMT
I think Djakadam best chance was last year - this year is much tougher... last years Gold Cup proved how poor current bunch were.. likes of Lord Windermere... Bobs Worth and Giant Bolster... Silviniaco Conti - out with the old in with the new

Top 4 were

Road To Riches

How many would have said that after last years King George?
Report Saritamer December 26, 2015 9:17 PM GMT
still to see no bit of form that says last years Gold Cup form wasn't top class
Report Eeternaloptimist December 26, 2015 9:39 PM GMT
The Gold Cup is the Gold Cup. If Coneygree never runs another race he is a legend. Why? Because he won the Gold Cup. Ricci has two outstanding chances in the race this year. I find it inconceivable that Mullins or Ricci wouldn't want to give themselves the best chance of winning the blue riband event of the whole National Hunt season. Would they accept a Ryanair and a place in the Gold Cup? Probably given the exceptionally tough and potential high quality of the big one. If they did though I guarantee they will always wonder what if?

The fly in the ointment is Ruby. Of course he will try to steer Ricci towards the Ryanair for Vautour for two reasons. He personally then has a shot at picking up both races and if he chose wrongly he would hate to give up the mount on the winner should that come to pass.

Ricci has to be strong here. Vautour is very inexperienced and ran a wonderful race in defeat today. He has every chance in the big one.
Report Can't Catch Me December 26, 2015 9:42 PM GMT
EO. Did you not see RR's interview today? You might find it inconceivable, but I really do think it's the case.
Report Can't Catch Me December 26, 2015 9:43 PM GMT
And as for RR being strong, he's been quoted enough times saying he leaves the decisions to Ruby and WPM. That won't be changing.
Report Saritamer December 26, 2015 9:50 PM GMT
Remember similar thing after Best Mate finished 2nd to Florida Pearl as 6-y-o. No Grade 1 Ryanair in those days but sure same debate would have ensued had there been. Think it was Jenny Pitman who was enthusing afterwards saying it was a fab=ntastic run from a young horse and she fully expected him to go on and win GC.

Vautour and Djakadam could easily fight out GC finish, surely RR and WM would take that now.
Report Pleasegivemeanailedontip December 26, 2015 9:56 PM GMT
Fair enough if people say vautour will go ryanair because of the mullins yard history of spreading themselves thin. That makes more sense than saying hes going ryanair cos he doesnt get 3 miles.
But what more could he have possibly done in a king george to get ahead of djakadam in the gold cup pecking order? Does he have to hose up by 20 on the snaff to nullify any crap about kempton not being a proper gold cup trial?
Report stevo1 December 26, 2015 9:59 PM GMT
If Vautour won by a head what price for Gold Cup not 12/1?
Report Saritamer December 26, 2015 10:00 PM GMT
Really like Djakadam for GC but if it's goodish ground I could easily see Vautour being clear into the straight and although it's a long way home from there I would take that now if I was on at a juicy price
Report Arklearkle December 26, 2015 10:03 PM GMT
Todays race proved a couple of things but provided far more questions than answers. Not alone are we not any wiser re who wins the GC we dont even know who runs in it. Apart from the questions re Vautour what about DC as Giggi has Don Poli so perhaps they may go Ryanair with DC.
Report unclepuncle December 26, 2015 10:03 PM GMT
CH4 mentioned something about the final time being much faster than the Feltham, but the last 2 furlongs being much slower so they must have really gone fast for the first 2 miles. If it's decent ground at Cheltenham Vautour is still a big player in the Gold Cup. 8/1 nrnb with Skybet looks a decent shout.
Report Can't Catch Me December 26, 2015 10:08 PM GMT
And they have Road to Riches. Would agree that one of those three may go Ryanair, but based on DC today, I think he needs a trip now and the GC would suit him better than the Ryanair.
Report Arklearkle December 26, 2015 10:17 PM GMT
Ruby no doubt would like to win both the GC and the Ryanair - lets face it we all would - but if he genuinely believed that Vautour had a better chance of winning the GC than Djakadam then he would ride Vautour in the GC irrespective of what happens wrt the Ryanair. In fact RR and WM would want their best horse/horses in the GC. Thats the one most would want to win and they might run the two in the GC anyway even if Ruby picked Dj. There are very few certainties in this game especially in a race like the GC and if one has worthy bullets you use them. Whats the Ryanair race anyway its only just been upgraded to gr 1 and isnt even the main race on the Thursday.
Report CVByrne December 26, 2015 10:43 PM GMT
Controversial as this may be. I think Mullins is the reason Vautour lost. He is a big fan of winning while his chasers are Novice Hurdlers. The best way to do that is to make the running but this in turn will ultimately hamper their long term chances in staying chases. His best chances of Gold Cup winners are with horses who are lazy and save themselves. Making all to win the Supreme Novices is never going to yield him a Gold Cup winner. Vautours career so far and the rides he get don't give him the chance to win.

As I said in this thread. Ruby was going to give Vautour a Kauto 5th King George ride. Go for it download the back and hope he's timed it right so he's not caught in the straight before the line. It worked that time because Kauto Star is a considerably better jumper than Vautour around Kempton. Vautour was keen and novicey and jumped left.

He will go for the Ryanair and will then be campaigned again for the Gold Cup next season. I think he has the class to win a Gold Cup despite the fact he doesn't truly stay the trip. He's like a poor man's Kauto Star and I mean that as high praise.

I think both he and Cue Card ran 177 today. Which is the best performance in the race since Kauto himself.
Report Ibrahima Sonko December 26, 2015 11:01 PM GMT
The time was good, still think ruby should had shot clear, Ruby rode a race like a jockey who had top class competitive riding in his book.

Looked like an Irish cruiser.

Im ruby's biggest fan.
Report CVByrne December 26, 2015 11:11 PM GMT
I have Vautour Antepost for the Gold Cup and I believe that bet is and should be dust now. He clearly tired in the straight. He can only win a Gold Cup if switched off in midfield and it's good ground. He cannot win it this season so they will likely  accept that and go for the Ryanair.

There is a chance though they may just go for it this year. The horse of both Mullins and Riccis lifetime will win the RSA by half the track and will be unstoppable in next seasons Gold Cup.

But as for the King George. I said I'd never get over it. But it is actually very easy to get over a loss like that when you have had not a bit of bad luck in running. Vautour ran his race and got tired. Cue Card is in top form and was the better horse today and he deserves the win
Report Autocue December 26, 2015 11:27 PM GMT
You've got egg on your face, no doubt about that betilyered. I think less of you now as you chose to take me on head to head and you were well and truly stuffed but haven't owned up.
Report CVByrne December 26, 2015 11:28 PM GMT
Seriously who are you? Did I have a discussion in this thread with you on Vautour vs Cue Card?
Report Autocue December 26, 2015 11:30 PM GMT
Your synopsis conveniently overlooks the 2014 running of both races when SC destroyed CC by 12l in the Betfair and by further in the King George or did that year not count?

Its amazing how many people on this forum cherry-pick stats to make them fit their argument. Ive made the point earlier in this thread that you are not trying to tell me its taken this long to discover he had a breathing problem that affected his performance to such such an extent.

Trapped epiglotis or not I would back SC around Kempton any day in a match with CC and believe the change of headgear will be the difference. We will see!!"
Report Fashion Fever December 26, 2015 11:31 PM GMT
vautour would be like one man up the hill

not going to happen
Report Autocue December 26, 2015 11:35 PM GMT
Nothing to do with you CVByrne. Betilyeredfaced decided to take issue with my selection of Cue Card and slated my logic then came back on here today pretending it didn't happen.
Report CVByrne December 26, 2015 11:39 PM GMT
I went back 6 pages and found nothing.

I remember now reading that. I hold my hands up. Genuinely thought Cue Card couldn't improve at the age he is now and having lost 3 times in the race previously. Completely opposed him today and I got chinned on the line for my troubles.

From the past 6 pages you've staunchly been in Cue Cards camp and made the case for him here. To get up and win in the line and the enjoyment that brings is what makes this sport so amazing.

Congrats on the win. I've no complaints my horse has no excuses. Cue Card deserves it
Report CVByrne December 26, 2015 11:44 PM GMT
I'd honestly not been on this thread for ages as mired in repetitive discussion leads nowhere and I'm on holiday at the moment. I'd completely forgot I'd had the discussion with yourself Autocue.

Cue Card is such a likeable horse. I also like people who put their staunch opinions out in support of a horse. So genuinely well done.
Report sageform December 27, 2015 9:11 AM GMT
Still think that Djakadam and Don Poli are the Mullins GC horses. Willie gave Vautour a try at 3 miles and very nearly won but he looks the Ryanair horse for this year.
Report IrisDeBalme December 27, 2015 9:49 AM GMT
Well interesting fact about race times...

Yesterdays race was the same time posted by Silviniaco Conti last years renewal... so although SC had beaten horses like Dynaste etc that are not considered as high class opposition by some, the time is the same as yesterday.

So clearly something not right with SC, he also ran a respectable time in the Aintree Bowl, so really his performance this season shows something is seriously amiss...
Report jasey December 27, 2015 10:36 AM GMT
Surely time can only be the same if conditions are identical.
Report IrisDeBalme December 27, 2015 10:56 AM GMT
Both were good to soft - don't have reading but id assume it would be close ... but clearly not his best running on a track he has excelled in.
Report Autocue December 27, 2015 11:20 AM GMT
You're on the wrong track CVByrne. The argument I had was with a poster called betilyered on this forum on 11th and 12th December. So absolutely no need for you to apologise. I respect a man who hold staunch opinions, writes from the heart then owns up when he got it wrong without making excuses. For what it's worth I thought Vautour ran a fantastic race. Cue Card came into the King George with better form this season, Vautour was inconvenienced by the right handed track (though connections would never put that up as an excuse) and he was untried at the trip. He forced the pace from a long way out and very nearly pulled it off. I think he's better off in the Ryanair this season but wouldn't write him off as a stayer in future years.
Report Autocue December 27, 2015 11:27 AM GMT
And we shouldn't forget Paddy has been banned 11 days for overuse of the whip (cf Ruby 2 days) and said his horse was all out. Prior to Christmas I'd backed Djakadam for the Gold Cup and Vautour in the Ryanair in singles and multiples and unless something goes amiss I'll likely add to those bets on the day.
Report Fashion Fever December 27, 2015 12:00 PM GMT
if UDS doesnt deliver vautour will go for the CC
Report IrisDeBalme December 27, 2015 1:37 PM GMT
Cue Card wont run now until the Gold Cup

From a stats perspective, that has been the undoing of a lot of horses not having a run after Xmas. Personally, would have preferred another run... to make sure fitness is at the right peak.

From a pricing perspective not bad really as whatever horses do bookies will factor the Cue Card in their book, so cant see anything shorter than 5/1 at any stage before the GC.
Report IrisDeBalme December 27, 2015 1:41 PM GMT
Fashion Fever, cant see that at all - Vautour going for CC, UDS will be main target for that regardless of him faling in the remaining races up to March.
Report betilyerded December 27, 2015 2:19 PM GMT
Dry yer eyes mate.

What do you want me to do? Get into a slanging match?

Well done for backing the winner and hope 2016 is as fruitful as it was for you yesterday.
Report Fashion Fever December 27, 2015 3:44 PM GMT
iris I meant if UDS cant run whatever reason, vautor will take his place

UDS surley has a few question marks now
Report buddeliea December 27, 2015 5:01 PM GMT
well he fell,but that can happen,I can't imagine that making a difference as regards him running in the Ch chase.
He has proved himself to be a good jumper normally.
Question is what race should Vautour run in for his connections. Past history tells us they like to split them up.
So all fit it's pretty clear UDS champion chase,Vautour Ryanair,Djakadam Gold cup.
Still,you never know,they may decide to put 2 in the same race,but I doubt it myself.
Report roobuck December 27, 2015 5:07 PM GMT
But surely owner is main part of connections and I'm sure Ricci would love runner in CC. On ATR talking of Douvan getting an entry
Report buddeliea December 27, 2015 5:26 PM GMT
yep,it's a fair point,but last Cheltenham,UDS went Arkle,Vautour JLT.
Probably be the same again I expect
Report BornToWin December 27, 2015 7:51 PM GMT
A horse of the class of Vautour really shouldn't be in the black hole between the top championship races.

I think he could go very close in the champion.
Report Ibrahima Sonko December 27, 2015 10:09 PM GMT
Vautour has been badly campaigned, not often you can say that about a mullins horse. But with Ruby/Mullins its all about the most winning opportunities rather than them winning the race that suits them best.

Best 2mile chaser since Master Minded and Sprinter Sacre in his prime.

I really want Annie Power to run in the world hurdle, so i can lay the arse out of her again.
Report buddeliea December 27, 2015 10:32 PM GMT
Best 2 m chaser since MM and SS? He's only won one chase at 2m!!
Report Ibrahima Sonko December 27, 2015 10:47 PM GMT
So you think differently, which is good.

It was over 2m1f, but that is not important.

As i said before hs has been campaigned because of stablemates.

The problem i have is that a true 2 miler with speed and stamina is being aimed at races to help out other horses in a the stable.

I would love Vautour to put UDS in his box, which is in the 2nd division of chasing.
Report BornToWin December 27, 2015 10:53 PM GMT
Mullins and Ricci will be hell bent on getting a Gold Cup, probably more likely to be crazily aimed at it than dropping down to 2m and jumping them silly in the champion.
Report ACStafford December 27, 2015 10:56 PM GMT
It makes sense to go for the Ryanair this season. He may well win a Champion Chase, but surely the long term goal would be the 2017 Gold Cup, and dropping him back to 2 miles would not help that. I thought at the start of the season that he was a lay for the Ryanair as he was just too good to be running in it, but now it seems like the most sensible option.
Report Fashion Fever December 27, 2015 11:48 PM GMT
mullins running plans depend on so many otehrs in the barn, the ryanair is the right race, and you might aswell give him the trophy now..boring !

still feel they left the KG winner in the barn yesterday, I think will ruby will wanna ride him in the GC
Report penzance December 28, 2015 1:14 AM GMT
Vautour and Cue Card both remind me of
Florida Pearl cracking 3 milers but not
GC horses,think they will be found wanting
up that hill.Only my view.
Report buddeliea December 28, 2015 7:00 AM GMT
Winning one novice chase at that distance is not sufficient to make claims he is that good.
Yes he may be that good,but it's pretty pointless saying it without any evidence.
You have a feeling,that's fine of course,but nothing to back it far hew won a supreme,and a JLT,struggled a tad to beat Ptit Zig,and got beat in a KG. nothing there to be mentioned with Sprinter and Master.

And I don't get this ante UDS opinion you seem to have,he's multiple Grade One Winner at 2m,and a horse his trainer runs in the top 2m races,the same trainer as Vautour.

Forgive me if I am wrong,and I apologise if I am.....but you sound like a rather bitter pocket talker to me.
Report buddeliea December 28, 2015 7:28 AM GMT
Maybe on reflection I should take that last comment back Sonko,I don't want to start some sort of fight on here.!,!

I just get a bit wound up sometimes when people have a pop at UDS cos of the Vautour thing.
It's hardly his fault that connections have campaigned Vautour the way they have!!
And to be fair to UDS,he has delivered the Grade Ones.

Just think it would be nice if people appreciated an exciting front running 2miler for what he is.
Not right to use the frustration some have re Vautors campaigning as a stick to beat UDS with.
Report BornToWin December 28, 2015 10:06 AM GMT
UDS does seem to be a bit of a freak, perhaps untouchable if he stands up.

But he now has a record of 2 falls in 6 chases, and something wasn't right before the fall yesterday as the trainer highlighted.
Report buddeliea December 28, 2015 10:09 AM GMT
fair points
Will be watching his next race with interest !!
Report Somerset Sam December 28, 2015 6:06 PM GMT
UDS falls over fences have both come when he's been re-appearing after a break. He needs to run more often to take the fizz out of him and to get some more experience.
Report harry callaghan December 29, 2015 11:05 AM GMT
that yester year horse ran well off of levels in the lexus cvGrin

of course you'll hit me with it was a below par renewal yesterday to which my reply will be i agreeHappy
Report Arklearkle December 29, 2015 12:29 PM GMT
My opinion also would be that the Lexus was a poor race.
Report shockster December 29, 2015 5:00 PM GMT
If you use FL as a yardstick, then Don Poli has about 40L to make up on Cue Card. If only it were so simple.
Report harry callaghan December 29, 2015 5:02 PM GMT
who is using yardsticks shockster?
Report Arklearkle December 29, 2015 7:26 PM GMT
Theyre all metresticks nowadays Harry!
Report ReaseHeath December 29, 2015 9:48 PM GMT
reflecting on King George, I thought it was interesting that Paddy Brennan said on ATR that he did n't really think Kempton was Cue Card's track - judgments about him before the race were predicated around the fact that he'd failed in three previous King George attempts vs the impact of the breathing operation - he needed every yard of the three miles to prevail though that might be as much to do with the petrol guage running on empty for Vautour as anything else.

Now there seems to be a school of thought that he might not stay the Gold Cup trip - the only possible evidence to think that is the way he stopped suddenly in KG13 - surely that was put to bed on Saturday and most people would now accept that it was down to his difficulty in breathing.

The Kings Theatre progeny have a very decent strike rate at 26f and beyond and include fantastic stayers like Balthazar King and the ill fated Brindisi Breeze. Currently King's Theatre has the likes of Cogry and The Druids Nephew prominent in the betting for the Welsh National and Grand National respectively.

On a separate point Cue Card's previous four G1 chase wins were achieved by a cumulative distance of 26.5 lengths whereas on Boxing Day he showed he is game and hardy also - I'd see that as a plus also. (similar to a slightly lesser extentwith Sprinter Sacre on Sunday).

Massive respect for Djakadam but I think Cue Card should now be second favourite for the Gold Cup and I would n't be that surprised if he comes up the hill well clear. I don't see any evidence that he won't stay - the doubt is purely because he's not tried the trip before, most recent Gold Cup winners have been running in the race for the first time.
Report CVByrne December 30, 2015 11:01 PM GMT
Cue Card was a horse in the form of his life and he just got up to win. We've no idea how ready Vautour was for the race nor how much going right handed hindered him. So it's really a tough one to weight up.

Cue Card may struggle to match that form in March. I noted how Brennan said. Look I'm not going to lie to you we had nothing left either. So it was too very tired horses with two tired jumps and and struggle to the line.

It's more likely that Vautour will improve for the run and not as likely Cue Card will. But as I said it's tough to figure out as we've got strands of form like Djakdam, Road to Riches and Don Poli that don't cross with this race.
Report CVByrne December 30, 2015 11:09 PM GMT
Harry I think people might be over rating Don Poli. His last 3 wins were OK but not beating top class grade 1 horses tbf. I accept his style of racing would really only show his depth of talent in a Gold Cup. He's unexposed and Mullins patchy Christmas record always has to be kept in mind.

As for Smad Place. I just thought it was a crazy idea the horse could run into the 170s and improve astronomical amounts based off a wind op. Cue Card has run a few lbs above his career best to win the King George.

I've made some absolutely ridiculous calls before that with the benefit of hindsight were easy to see as folly. It's a tough game to call right after all.

Back to the Gold Cup. I think the two to beat are Djakdam and Road to Riches. Cue Card Vautour form comes next with Poli in 3rd.
Report harry callaghan December 31, 2015 9:32 AM GMT
i have to say cv i have never over rated don poli, i've always had him down as a slow boat but he was very fortunate to come across such a weak rsa field as i found to my cost on the day when backing others to get him beat, however he hosed up...he is an annoying horse for me to get a true angle on as he is a lazy racer, his form doesn't actually amount to a whole lot so once again by default, like in the rsa i have to respect him because of the horses he will face in the gold cup...

although it looks competitive this is just an ok running of the gold cup imo i have a lot of horses rated very close with djakadam the best, however he is beatable but by who i'm not sure at this stage...i have a feeling don poli is probably better than the bare form and mullins has left plenty to do with him, they probably regard that win as job done and we got away with it i have just never got a true angle on the horse just because he hasn't really met to many good horse, he will continue to annoy me no doubt!!

just in regards cue card i have that as a career best from him in the george and when looking at the race again it could be called a hold up ride really, whereas his previous form has always been a choke out prominent ride, the pace of the race and a cracking ride from brennan lead to more improvement from the horse and with such tactics likely in the gold cup he shouldn't be dismissed lightly at this stage, i would like to see walsh drop vautour in at some stage of his career as his also choke out style of running is not helping him settle and long term they aren't going to win a gold cup with him until they at least teach him to settle...because of willies depth of horses we might of been talking of him as a champion chaser if he won in the arkle but now we are stuck with him, he is still a cracking horse but a cracking horse with a price tag on his head now

i'd probably have cue card, don cossack and djakadam clear at this stage but as with a lot of gold cups they really don't appeal to me in a major way betting wise i see us getting good value on the day so no reason to stick your neck out at this stage, i'd probably see djakadam hosing up next time and potentially going off a short price on the day...don cossack and cue card will be 9 by race time so that needs to be considered and is a concern for me...

much to ponder in the coming months but at this stage the race doesn't interest me in regards betting
Report trigger3 December 31, 2015 2:55 PM GMT

Dec 30, 2015 -- 5:09PM, CVByrne wrote:

Harry I think people might be over rating Don Poli. His last 3 wins were OK but not beating top class grade 1 horses tbf. I accept his style of racing would really only show his depth of talent in a Gold Cup. He's unexposed and Mullins patchy Christmas record always has to be kept in mind. As for Smad Place. I just thought it was a crazy idea the horse could run into the 170s and improve astronomical amounts based off a wind op. Cue Card has run a few lbs above his career best to win the King George. I've made some absolutely ridiculous calls before that with the benefit of hindsight were easy to see as folly. It's a tough game to call right after all. Back to the Gold Cup. I think the two to beat are Djakdam and Road to Riches. Cue Card Vautour form comes next with Poli in 3rd.

You seem to have airbrushed Don Cossack handing out sound beatings to both Djakadam and RTR at Punchestown on spring ground last year. For me that is the single best piece of form yet you have mentioned 5 other principals and discarded Don Cossack. It's oopen for debate but I also believe that Don Cosack was coming to win the King George if he had stood up and that would have put a slightly different complexion on the GC picture. The caveat with this horse is his Cheltenham record but personally I can't have either Don Poli (too slow) or Cue Card as potential GC winners. Road to Riches I believe is always likely to find one to good but I think he will be in the frame. Vautour is still full of possibilities if he actually lines up imo and Djakadam is probably a worthy favourite at this stage although he still has it to prove at the very top. It's an intriguing race at this stage but I see Djakadam shortening if he wins comfortably NTO and Vautour is re-directed to the Ryanair. The rest don't appeal from a betting perspective as they are all short enough considering we are still 11 weeks from GC day.

Report CVByrne December 31, 2015 3:15 PM GMT
I absolutely don't consider any form of horses who run in the Gold Cup beyond that race. Time and time again they flop at Aintree and Punchestown after the Gold Cup. Denman and Kauto have been stinking bad in the past. The list is so long.

Given how brutal last years Gold Cup was I'm even more certain we saw nothing like top form from Djakdam or Road to Riches. Never take post Cheltenham form at face value.
Report impossible123 December 31, 2015 4:25 PM GMT
Given time I can see Don Poli running in the Grand National, not next year probably in 2018; regards Don Cossack, having looked at his Cheltenham races again, in my opinion had been a touch unlucky at the crucial moments of the race, some of which were his own making eg running lazily/lacking concentration, but should he be within a length or two down after jumping the last fence at Cheltenham my money will be on him being the victor even if the leading horse is Djakadam - the run-in is just up his street!

I truly cannot see Vautour running in the CGC, if so, I'd be laying him big time just to prove a point: its owner ought to be seriously considering the Champion Chase over the Ryanair despite Mullins having UDS running in the former.
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