Horse Antepost
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PaddyPower 2014
PaddyPower 2014
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Hoping Oscar shows his class today, and if he jumps well I really fancy him....10's could look very nice later.
Just wish I knew how fit he is,still the price is worth it imo. |
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Why isnt OW entered in the King George ?!?
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So after hours of studying i am none the wiser, it has to be one of worst thomas pinks ever.
Siding with oscar whiskey & present view at the moment, need to see what the ground is like first. Also Hobbs could have a good day. good luck all. |
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3 miles too far mate,horse is a classic in between distances.
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this really is a tough handicap to solve
the 2 market principals come here after a perfect prep...buywise who will like this ground is the pick of the 2 for me but his jumping really is an issue, he has to go well but the price is a tough one to stomach, especially considering he got hit 12lbs(what a feck up by the the connections) for beating the exposed astracad at the back end of last season, i just wonder whether that will be his undoing here in a more competitive race... i have a lot of time for present view but i just wonder how much more is to come, he won a competitive renewal of the jewson and the thing i like about him is his gameness he loves it and finds when asked for more...up 7 for that win at cheltenham he looks like he may of come on this season however, i just wonder whether he has the class and is vulnerable to such a runner...he has every chance though but once again the 7-1 on offer is scrape the barrel stuff for this admirable horse many others that have a squeak caid de berlais is an in and out sort but could be given a chance on his runs in big hurdle races, better ground would suit more but still has a very workable mark imo, a nice race is in him i just can't figure out where yet...indian castle is short in the betting and has been punted, struggling with this one myself but i suppose he is only up 5lbs for beating annacotty at the track, he may have a chance but that was a mixed bag race imo and i'd want a proper price in order considering him, just a tricky horse for me to get an angle on tbf and i haven't got a solid mark i think he is capable of, so am happy to watch him and reevaluate after this race other horses persian snow is a likeable horse who just has his limitations, he maybe able to run a place but seems to find a limited amount when let down but i don't dislike him, i just wonder if he can improve, i have my reservations but he at least looks like he will run his race even though he is quite exposed... easter meteor is a trainer change and might go well, he was running well off a mark of 140 in this last year 8lbs more this time makes it tough but if the trainer can find a bit more he may go well 13-1 on here is much less than we should be getting but the trainer change is clearly the reason, he still has a chequered profile and a mark of 148 doesn't look particularly workable to me but you never know johns spirit really is becoming a track specialist and although high in the weights he is clearly an early season type who loves the course...some people must love this creature and he once again bounced back with a career high first time back, he has 9lbs for the privilege but he continues to improve, respected and if he can win off 159 if will be a monumental effort from all concerned i have had oscar whisky down as a small field bully for a while but i just wonder whether i have got him wrong, it is just that small fields are what he has been put up against...i just have a feeling he is the play here against a majority of exposed handicappers...he will like the ground and he is only a second season chaser who appears well each year early season...the other one who i believe will run well is cantlow at a price he ran a sneaky good race last time a tough race and i have backed 8...the front 3 in the market will be a poor result for me best of luck in a mine field imo |
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Re Oscar Whisky, Barry did say yesterday that he's vulnerable on his first run. Said you wouldn't want him 100% at this stage of the season.
Surprised there's not a bit more love for Caid Du Berlais. Just a 5yo but he's run and placed in two Festival handicaps, placed at Aintree and ran a sound race in the Galway Plate. It's said you need 10lb to win the Paddy Power and this lad is 8lbs lower than his hurdle rating, with improvement to come. He placed in the Martin Pipe off this mark and Paul was giving it out as his bet of the meeting beforehand. Ground might be a question and he doesn't seem to have been campaigned with this race in mind but Paul will have him ready. |
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yeh,fitness would be my main concern re Oscar.
I don't have a major problem with his jumping as long as its a fair pace which I imagine it will be, and this small fields nonsense is exactly that...nonsense, hes ran well in plenty of hurdle races with fair sized fields. |
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re oscar whisky off the lay off
6 races - won 4...the other 2 times upsides at the last when he would of won and the other when beaten 3/4 length first time over fences last year in a farce of a race on chase debut...you could argue he has a very good record when fresh off the lay off |
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yeh,its just the vibes from connections harry.
Mind you I don't usually take a lot of notice of their comments, and I have backed him today,so I guess I aint taking much notice this time  although I do tend to respect what BG has to say. |
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we will see budd...he isn't getting any younger, that is my main concern but also think they aren't a great bunch and he has a good record fresh...really it's just how much ability is left, if it is still there, he has to go well...tight race tbf from a handicapping point of view, should be a good race
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I agree about the degree of difficulty. I have three running for me. Cantlow,Persian Snow and Oscar Whisky.
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harry callaghan
Date Joined: 10 Nov 07 Add contact | Send message 15 Nov 14 11:00 Joined: 10 Nov 07 | Topic/replies: 3,204 | Blogger: harry callaghan's blog a tough race and i have backed 8... For once someone has backed more runners than me I completely agree re Oscar and think he could be thrown in here, trip ideal, ground ideal, price spot on imo whats not to like  Also done Buywise (AP 8/1) Indian Castle, Easter Meteor, Caid Du Berlais, Persian Snow, Kapga De Cerisy with persian being my jackpot horsey |
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yep, I've come down on the side of the Henderson pair ew with a saver on Present View whose chance is obvious.
The points about OW form first time out are well made, he'll love the ground, won't mind if they have to jump less fences (though that looks less likely now)and I read he's had a breathing op in the summer - I think all BJG was saying yesterday was that they just won't know if he needs it until the race, slightly disconcerting that they only made their minds up on Wed but c'est la vie. Good luck! |
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Oscar Whiskey – Top weight, big field, fto and he might not be fully fit. Is he going to run a 165 here? No.
Johns Spirit – Surely too high in handicap now, he is a very good horse when he gets a good run at them from off the pace up the hill. But weight stops them all and it’ll stop him too in this ground. Edgardo Sol – He would prefer better ground and I think he’s handicapped up to his ability at 150, could run a few times to lower that mark between now and the Plate at the festival Champion Court – Dropped a little bit in the ratings but still 149 is a mark higher than he can win off on soft ground. He’s just not very good tbh. Kapga De Cerisy – Hasn’t been seen for a year since spanking up off 10lbs lower mark at Sandown. Danger as he did that fto last season and will like the ground here. Easter Meteor – I have no idea if the plan is to lose and lower his mark or of he’s fully going for it here, then in Dec, then in Plate at festival. He’ll win a big one for Pipe, I think it’ll not be today though. Shanpallas – Hmm really think this is a throw him in and see how he does scenario. Trip should be too short but can’t be dismissed. Cantlow – I think he has every chance here 1lb lower than when 2nd in Dec last year, he’s been dropped 4lbs for his total non effort under Geraghty lto which seems to be a good earner for Barry. Making sure horses don’t win races for JP. Eastlake – 2m4f soft ground has always meant to be his conditions. Obvious prep lto and now wears a tongue tie. He stayed the 2m5f in the Topham but he’s 6lbs higher than his best winning mark. Will run a solid race as always so fine e/w punt for some. Buywise – Look he’s been talked up, he’s too short would it surprise me if he won. No, but there’s no value in his price. Present View – At the festival Pendra would have beaten him if he’d not blundered the last, Attaglance would have beaten him had he not had to switch outside. Also a horse who has no value in his price. Caid Du Berlais – A horse I like and a horse I wanted to back for this if it was good ground. But I don’t know what or why he was entered in a graduation the other week and pulled because of the ground. If this had always been the target I’d be confident. I’m backig him but am slightly worried this is an afterthought. a why not run. Persian Snow – I like him, he ran very well over course and distance last month, only up a few lbs for that. Stable in flying form. Got a low weight, all his wins are over this trip in this or worse ground and no wins were fto so he improves for his runs. He’s the pick of these. Indian Castle – Young and possibly improving he won on heavy ground at Cheltenham in Jan. Blundered badly when beaten at the festival. Not to be underestimated Cedre Bleu – Could run decent like he did in Jan when 2nd in heavy over 21f at the track. Nicholls deemed him not good enough to stay in the yard so I’d think he’ll need to be dropped some in h/c and upped in trip before he gets a win Ericht – Off his current mark he’ll win a big pot, but he’d prefer better ground. Henderson thought he was one of his best chances of a winner at the festival but ran no race. He’s on such a low weight and I know this has been his aim so he’ll be carrying my money here. Shortlist – Kapga De Cerisy, Cantlow, Eastlake, Caid Du Berlais, Persian Snow, Ericht Selections - Persian Snow, Ericht, Cantlow e/w |
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Oh forgot to say, worst renewal of the race I've ever bet on.
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going for Oscar whiskey each way, class act has top weight but has earned it , and decent form over fences beat tarquin de seual over a similar trip will do for me !
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Nice write up CVByrne. Wouldn't disagree with any of that.
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If I'm any good at reading body language at all I'd say David Pipe thinks he has improved Easter Meteor quite a bit.
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went for Present View...nice win at the festival and a solid prep run last time.
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Not sure Persian Snow improves for a run tbh. Two of his second runs of the season (last 2 recent seasons) he's been beaten 29 & 30 lengths. Think he would have been pretty fit last time out as it was an easier race to win. What he does have in his favour is the ground with a low racing weight, and stable form.
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He won his bumper fto as well.
Sticking with Present View ante-post anyway, not confident about anything in this one! |
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Sam T-D calling the ground horrendous. -
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Done Cantlow 25/1 and Cedre Bleue 50/1 Ew. Both have sniffs on old form and fair prices.
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Added Caid Du Berlias
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adding Eastlake !
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Slighty gutted! Well done winners.
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wd winners
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Chuffed with that. Would have been gutted had I let him go unbacked and he'd won having backed him so much last season and having fancied him for this race for ages. The ground and the entering him in that graduation chase the other week threw me.
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Bugger !
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Surprised there's not a bit more love for Caid Du Berlais. Just a 5yo but he's run and placed in two Festival handicaps, placed at Aintree and ran a sound race in the Galway Plate. It's said you need 10lb to win the Paddy Power and this lad is 8lbs lower than his hurdle rating, with improvement to come. He placed in the Martin Pipe off this mark and Paul was giving it out as his bet of the meeting beforehand. Ground might be a question and he doesn't seem to have been campaigned with this race in mind but Paul will have him ready.
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Geraghty would have won if he got at his horse earlier.
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The form looks solid with the winner being highly touted by PFN since he came over from France. Johns Spirit & Present view both very liable over the c&d. I wonder if backers of JS think McClernon coming wide cost him? Dunno tbh.
Persian Snow was outclassed. Quite surprised to see Ericht finish 10th, he was bang there two out and his finishing position does not do his effort justice. Thought he ran really well on unsuitable ground. |
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*reliable
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Ericht made bad mistake Sint and looked to wind him. Already my mind is on good ground in Spring for him like Triolo D'Alene a couple of seasons ago.
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yep, deffo a better run than it looks on paper.
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Johns Spirit could have done with a faster pace. Came full of running to take the lead, too soon really, as he doesn't do a lot in front. Had the others beat. Very unlucky imo.
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Yep it was a smashin effort conceding 13lb, could be Ryanair class.
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Yeah has to be Ryanair now. He needs the fast pace so slower smaller field graded races wouldn't suit.
I think Caid Du Berlias as a 5yo has buckets of improvement to cone. Have long been a fan of the hose and think he'll improve for for 3 miles next season |
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Present View needs to be ridden more aggressively to make the most of his jumping - I guess on that ground they felt they had to take it a bit easy. On better ground he could jump the opposition into the ground.
The Topham looks tailor made for him. |
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Well done CV. I seem to remember you liked him a lot last season and put him up a few times for various races, faith rewarded.
He's turning into a bit of a course specialist, 2nd in the Fred Winter, 3rd in the Martin Pipe and won today. |