Horse Antepost
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PaddyPower 2014
PaddyPower 2014
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Replies: 247
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I think we can assume, on the basis of all that data, that it is going to be soft ground at best with the emphasis on stamina and fitness. Good luck to all horses that haven't had a run this season imvhavho.
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A lot of rain about, i reckon it will be soft and testing.
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going stick reading for last year's renewal was 7.5 with description of Good (G/S in places)
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Any news on which JP horses are running yet ?
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NOT Uxizandre...
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Colour Squadron not declared either
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Very content with my 25/1 Persian Snow now that it seems as if he will run. Just watched his runs in the Novice at Cheltenham in March and his October run again and would make the following comments.
1. In March he was still a bit novicey jumping partly because he seemed to be just struggling with the early pace and probably quicker ground than he likes. He was still sixth despite being squeezed on the final bend and losing several lengths and a big mistake at the last which finished him. 2. In October his jumping was significantly better with the only error at the second last first time round. He made good progress down the hill and looked the winner until you look back at John's Spirit who tracked him most of the way and beat him a comfortable length with the rest well beaten. 3. He is better off with John's Spirit (5 lb), Buywise (11 lb) Present View (4 lb) and Attaglance (3 lb) from those 2 runs. If you take the novice race, he still has quite a bit to find with Present View and Attaglance but I think he has the most scope for improvement of any of the above and he is the longest price. |
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Why do you think he has the most scope for improvement Sage?
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Because he is a big backward type that took a long time to get his jumping sorted while most of the opposition are seasoned handicappers. I realise that I may be using rose coloured spectacles but don't we all when we fancy one.
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watching the October race back, Ericht got slightly squeezed out on the home turn and Geraghty was n't at all hard on him in the straight.
NJH stated in his stable tour that Ericht loves decent ground but both his form and his pedigree both suggest soft should suit. I thought John's Spirit beat Persian Snow a bit cosily but ground and weight swing might help Persian Snow turn it around,price disparity between the two seems big certainly... |
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The "clock race" is Present View`s at Cheltenham March 11th 2014 and includes the aforementioned,Buywise,Attaglance,Persian Snow and Ericht.
Will back them all each-way except Buywise who appears poorly handicapped.Hope I don`t regret this decision. |
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Buywise looks poorly handicapped to me too, not sure why he's as short as he is
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I thought Persian Snow was potentially top class in his bumpers days but for whatever reason things have not gone entirely in that direction. He is actually more exposed and older than several of his rivals in the race, hence why I asked about having more scope because I couldn't really see it. But I guess you could argue he is now the finished article and in his pomp whereas some others still have many years ahead of them, e.g Present View is 6 with 3 wins from 5 chase starts, PS is 8 with 2 wins from 9 starts. It wouldn't be a surprise if Hobbsy won the race, master trainer that he is!
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only on the balance of probability, the winner should have most of these characteristics:-
a 6 or 7 year old won a chase at Cheltenham won at 2 and a half miles won at class 2 at least had less than 10 chases rated 140 to 149 Present View Buywise Indian Castle the only 3 that fit all of those |
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Buywise will be staying on but his form is littered with him making mistakes and I just don't see him being able to hold a position and he may end up with too much ground to make up.
Still happy with Present View at 10/1 - might put up,an in running lay at around 2/1 just in case.  |
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Judorick. Don't see the relevance of 'had less than 10 chases'
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Buywise needs to improve his jumping, he may well win but I cannot back him hoping he doesnt make too many mistakes.
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Facts
Judorick. Don't see the relevance of 'had less than 10 chases' Basically an unexposed horse Facts. In the last 10yrs 81 such horses ran. No wins and just 6 places. None made the places in the last four years. |
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(stats relate to horses with 10+ chase runs)
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Sint, I take the point about his age but Persian Snow has taken a long time to mature. He reminds me of another big favourite of mine, Parsnip Pete, who was frustrating for a couple of years because he kept missing fences but is now blossoming into a top class horse.
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PJay, don't bother, if they can't 'see' it themselves on here then it must be totally irrelevant info
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Edgardo Sol the value call for me. Very open this.
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Spent many hours over past week looking for value and have opted for a slightly safe play in what looks a very open race. Cant avoid the race so have gone for Present View @ 6/1 EW 5 places with the sponsor. Just cannot see him out of first 5 and think he has a great win chance. Nothing earth shattering but feels a balanced bet in a tough handicap.
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ive had a small play on OW I just think that quality will prevail on the day
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Cheltenham / Fri 14 Nov
Updated @ Fri 14 Nov Going/Track Chase and Hurdle Soft, good to soft in places. Cross Country Good, good to soft in places. (GoingStick: Chase and hurdle 6.5 on Wednesday at 15:00) Rails: Rail moved out two yards since the October meeting adding twelve yards per circuit. Weather 7mm overnight,(Still raining), rain clearing by mid morning, dry afternoon with sunny spells. |
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Dry afternoon with sunny spells.
Shame you cannot back against this. Soft going, what a surprise  |
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Persian Snow will love the rain, Sage.
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too hard a race for me ,cant have a play
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buywise has a huge chance imo
i reckon that his jumping is the only possible negative he came to win the race at Chelt behind present view but a bad blunder cost him about 8 lengths still managed to stay on well into 5th........now if the sun shines brightly he wont have to jump those last 2 fences |
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Stable form not too shabby either Sint. Plenty in PS's favour but no doubt something will go wrong. My record with ante post bets is dreadful.
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Ataglance non runner, ground officially Soft (G/S places) - described by Richard Johnson after winning on Champagne West as soft,heavy in places...
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Attaglance a non runner so the "clock race" is down to x4 so I will back Buywise e-w as well.
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so with a third of the fences omitted doesnt buywise possible jumping issues become less of a problem and ericht at 20/1 is interesting you could find the sun is a more significant factor than the ground...
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I not happy with way they have handled the low sun issue, im betting on a race over a certain distance with a certain amount of fences, if they do omit some fences tomorrow i will demand my money back.
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GL with that
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It's very difficult. Very, very difficult. Especially as at this stage we don't know how many fences they will be jumping. The market is following the trends.
But my bet is Cantlow, e/w @ 20/1, 5 places. (betfair sportsbook and powers doing refunds for fallers). With a good round of jumping this one will be right there, and can be expected to fly up the hill. I'd ignore his last run. |
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refund for fallers LOL
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Really like Indian Castle. Dont understand why it has been moved from Mccain?
Mccain's comments pre festival was that 140 was a very fair mark which it still runs off tomorrow |
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The move is a strange one. Didn't see any explanation. Would be shorter in the market if he was with a bigger name NH trainer.
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I Williams is a good trainer,lots of big race wins on flat and jumps
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