Even though the clerk of the course is saying there is no chance of the meeting being abandoned he is surely just putting a brave face on it, imo. Going is now Heavy and more rain through the week. I know the track drains well but at this time of yea it doesn't have the temperatures to dry aswell like summertime. Anyway, something that revels in the mud is a must.

Sint, as you know I rarely take the view that horses keep running to the same form during a whole season and I reckon Noble Mission's Chester and Curragh form would give him an excellent chance here. I have no doubts that his latest two efforts were below his very best. He had a busy early season campaign and this will be his seventh outing. If the ground is soft we know he excels under those conditions but for me the big question is will his break since July be enough to freshen him up or is he past his best for the season?

In fact when you look at the form of the older horses they are a pretty average bunch. With ROTW beateb by five three year olds in the Arc and at least two were badly draw/wrong ground that ifthe comments from D Weld are to be believed this could be a one horse race. He is talking about campaigning him at the highest level next year so he clearly thinks he is Group 1 class and he has been lightly campaigned and he gets the allowance.
I cannot find any suggestion about not going on the ground and snyway I think it will dry out some and the home straight drains quickly.

actually on closer inspection, Weld also has Vote Often in the Fillies and Mares race and Mustajeeb in the QEII both of whom have form with plenty of cut, so maybe he figures Free Eagle will go on soft but won't risk him if it's desperate.

I'm still guessing though!!!!!

The argument that ROTW  performs better over ten furlongs that twelve is proven  as far as i can seen , his run in this last year was fantastic , his Arc run  was a bit flat,  but the  defeat of Flintshire on his penultimate start may be the reason  for that , that was no cakewalk . Cirrrus is the one he has to beat imo and that is no easy task,  but he ran that Horse to just half a length in this last year, age three,  was some achievement .

Mac, but he doesn't get the 5lbs this year. Before the Arc I argued there wasn't enough evidence to conclusively say he hadn't improved this year, after the Arc I'd be clutching at straws for the same argument.

Always possible the early season races will leave their mark Figgis but I think a long break is exactly what he needed,particularly after that gut busting run in France over 12f. He was awarded the race subsequently but with a furlong to run he had them all at it. With the tactics they now use, the trip just stretched him. His close second in Germany, to a 3yo btw, came after that big effort so not surprised he got beat. Of course he is no world beater but he is certainly improved this season and Timeform only have 4lb between him and CDA.

CDA is very  good at coming back from injury,Treve was not good enough over 10f against CDA first time up(ignore excuses),TGG will benfit from soft ground and looks the danger to me,ROTW is inconsistent but good enough to challenge for places,Free eagle just has not got the pace for 10f,Western hymm is interesting,?. Whatever serves it up to CDA will have a big battle.

yes figgis best form when leading,CDA always goes 3f out and finds more.

Metro John, not sure how you come to the best form when front running conclusion? I'd say his best two performances last year were in the Derby and Champion Stakes, I imagine most people would have the latter as a career best, in neither race did he front run, just the opposite.

Look the best middle distance(12f) in the World could not pass CDA over 10f,which one of these is capable????(unless CDA age caught up?)

I think most agree this is a poor race for the name and money. RoTW has won a single Group 1 and his three pieces of form are the Derby where the next six home have won nothing, the Champion Stakes beaten by Farrh who had also only won a single Group 1 and recently beating Flintshire who also has only won a single Group 1. Pretty poor stuff but the dangers include Free Eagle with no Group 1's, Western Hymn no Group 1's and Noble Mission with a single Group 1 and one in the dope box.  So his form revolves around very beatable horses who from loads of runs only actualy won around four Group 1 races. I certainly don't have Noble Mission down as a Group 1 horse. His Curragh win was against a horse who AOB only ran to preserve it's Group 1 status and the proximity of the third horse tells it's own tale.
So although I have had a couple of bets I hope the 3 year olds do the business because if they are worse than this lot next season is going to be pretty demanding for races over a mile.

very tricky race imo and the prices are tight on many runners...Noble mission is a much improved performer this year dropping back in trip and finally getting a run of things on soft ground, he is a solid horse on soft and personally I had him down as a group 1 winner on soft earlier in the campaign...however he was trained hard to win those races and his german and even french run showed him coming to the end of his tether...I just couldn't take this under price although really, everything is in his favour conditions wise but really he is thoroughly exposed colt imo... just how good do you think he is? personally i think he is talented colt but has always had his limitations class wise and at 9-2 and 4-1 he is to be respected but backed is to tough for me, i'd want near double the price

everything is in cirrus des aigles favour but he really did run in a race full of non hopers on his return...it has to be taken on trust he desperately needed the run and it is fair to say the ground was plenty fast enough for him, really though you are purely backing him at the price on back form, however he has proved himself much better for having the run before and has run poorly off the lay off in the past...the race hasn't really got anything in his class on his day (he isn't getting any better though) at 6-4 i want everything in my favour and would have to see him back up after injury, however he is such a reliable horse you have to give him maximum respect under his optimum mud he looks like getting

i know a few aren't interested but i can't help but feel this smaller field and ground ought not to be a problem for ROTW and at 7-1 he is at least a tad of value...i did write on the arc about him and still believe he doesn't like the hussle and bussle of a big field and has blobbed 3 times in such circumstances...i just think he needs a tad of room and needs to do things his own way...he isn't a quickener as such but has a sustained speed which showed him in a good light in this race last year...maybe kingsbarns will go on but really he isn't a front runner but could see ruler of the world loose on the lead here and if allowed to sustain the 3/4 furlong speed he has in the locker and collect... if taken on by noble mission i can see him track the speed before being wound up...he is still a young horse and personally i think he is better than last year and am prepared to forgive him his arc run in a big field

it will be interesting to see whether weld allows his horse to take his chance and he comes here fresh after a light campaign...he really is a dangerous horse and if the ground were to dry to good/soft i think he will run...though the likely glue pot ground, will mean this inexperienced colt will be forced to find plenty under pressure and i for one am looking forward to see if he can find against cirrus and ROTW who are both proven group 1 horses...he has a chance though and fingers crossed he runs the race certainly needs him

good luck in a tough heat but just ROTW for me at this stage until i know the ground for the weld colt who will be a danger to all if backing up against these better types

With the ground, you'd be crazy to look elsewhere than CDA ... this is the easiest assignment he's ever faced, and Prix Dollar run was just about spot on for this.

I know you have to 'back on past form' but his formbook is the most telling and reliable ! .. he comes on spades for a first run back, and never runs below 125+ on soft / heavy

Noble Mission beat Telescope a lot more convincingly than Taghrooda did, twice.

Nathaniel who won the Eclipse as a four year old  and ran Dane Dream to a nose in the KG  could never get  involved in this race as a three year old , don't know if ROW  will beat  CDA  on Saturday  who is the obvious favourite , but ROW did challenge from wide last year
, the Race this time may come down to luck in running , someone has mentioned ROW  preference for space around him , the decision  to go a bit wide last year may have part of the plan .

Once again Brig brings horses of yesteryear into the debate. Cannot blame Figgis this time!! They have no relevance WHATSOEVER!

I doubt any luck in running this year Mac. Last year Hunters Light set the right pace for Farhh and he was always there whereas I'm not convinced CS gave CDA the greatest of rides with Farhh getting first run. ROTW was always trapped wide and was just unable to raise the pace to get the leaders. The ground up the home straight is faster than the rest of the course and SDS gave the winner a great ride. Whether a stronger even pace will be enough for ROTW to get past CDA I don't know but I think he has a great chance of doing so. There shouldn't be any excuses about false run race etc.

(Foy / Arc ... )