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Qipco Champion Stakes 18th October.
Qipco Champion Stakes 18th October.
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Replies: 310
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fozwald
13 Oct 14 13:01 12 left in the race including The Grey Gatsby for some reason. I expect he will end up running - he will have ready made excuse if he gets beat and it's not as if he has a big stallion reputation to protect. Even if he finishes 4th he'll make a tidy sum for his owner. |
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Think it was just a timing issue with the declarations and they left it as long as possible before seeing what the ground was doing. Dont think he'll run now they've said he wont.
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Whats happened to the rain cover plans that were being considered after last years meeting??
Though it does not help when they over water the track for the 2day meeting just over a wk ago  idiots  This day was a great idea, but the date (weather wise) was a poor call. |
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The 4/1 on Cirrus now looking a big price although the forecast was definitely in his favor the last few days. Shame it wasn't possible to get more than a few beans on.
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anyone know if Al Kazeem is a definite?
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Lots of rain in Newmarket but I bet it doesn't end up worse than soft come Friday. Sorry, remind me, is racing the winner or the loser by the switch to Ascot from HQ? Looking at the forecast, there must be a chance it will be unraceable by Saturday?
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An insane decision to move it from HQ, Howellsy. Not only that but pushing it further back on the calendar, & then chopping and changing the races when the autumn schedule was perfect as it was. It's now a complete mess.
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Agreed Johnny. Had Future Champions Day been in its ideal slot, last Saturday, we'd've had perfect conditions. Now it'll be a slog through the soft.
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Yes it seems sure that we are in for yet another "Champions Day" (now 2days) that will be run on NH ground like conditions (soft/heavy)
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I can't stop backing CdA. From 3/1 all the way down. Still think 13/8 is value tbh. Can see him going off a shade of odds on. A shame for the race, as it seems to be cutting up badly.
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Johnny,
Its the same weekend as the Champion has always been. |
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I feel the same way as you Can't Catch Me. I've had my biggest bet of the year on CDA. Everything is in his favour. Soft ground and 10 furlongs being his optimum distance. He'll also have come on nicely from his last ride and the opposition doesnt look good enough.
Noble Mission was a good each way shout, but if anything having him in the race setting the pace just means it sets it up nicely for CDA. Also he has been well beaten by CDA in the soft last year in France. Ruler of the World wasn't far behind CDA last year in this race, but he won't be getting the weight allowance he did then and I don't think he's come on much as a 4 year old. Also CDA had a poor 7 year old career and was close to being retired last year. He's come back this year as good as ever. The only unknown is Free Eagle, having never ran on soft. Looking a likely non runner and even if he runs surely wont get the ground. This is turning into a penalty kick for CDA and on the day evens would still be value. The only reason I can think of to possibly oppose CDA borders on the ridiculous. CDA was second to 2 horses Frankel and Farhh at this meeting, so the only concern is a horse starting with F, which would be Free Eagle. Anyone think of a better reason to oppose CDA? |
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16/1 about Noble is now 5/1. I wouldn't take his form with CDA last year at face value. His improvement this year is obvious.
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I'd oppose CDA because of his cramped odds and the fact he was all out to beat a Group 3 horse last time out. He may have beat Treve earlier in the season but she was nowhere near cherry ripe that day.
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Basically, I don't think he is as good as he was. His form with Flintire in June is also unreliable.
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*Flintshire
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I'd agree Noble Mission has improved a lot since making the running in his races. But all that means is CDA has something to chase in the final few furlongs and being the beast he is I can see him grinding past Noble Mission and winning by half a length. I may play the forcast bet here.
He was all out last time front running after a 4 month break so he would have a decent run to bring him on for this meeting. I'd say that race went as planned (ignoring the demotion) Also prior to beating Treve he was 2nd to Gentildonna in Dubai on unfavorable good ground and later beat the arc 2nd Flintshire on good ground by 2 lengths despite running with a leg injury in the home straight. I'd say his form this year is pretty close to matching that of 2012. |
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The lack of a recent run is a huge negative for Noble Mission for me.
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Noble Mission ran 10 weeks ago in Germany, not really an issue. Probably were just waiting for some soft ground to run again
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You don't know at what point the injury happened though. If it happened anywhere before the 50 yard marker i'd be inclined to think he would not have finished the race.
Flintshire has lost more races than he has won and had a nice draw in the Arc. I just don't rate him thta highly to be honest. Noble Mission would have needed a break as he had a bust first half of the season. On ratings CDA should beat him comfortably but then you have one horse at a short price and the other 4 times bigger. |
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* busy
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Has Dermot Weld indicated whether or not Free Eagle would run on Soft ground?
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10 weeks is a long time though IMO. And he has generally run better after a run... I think he might just need this. Just my own view.
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It is always nice to have a prep race for a big event like this but i'd be gobsmacked if he needs the run tbh. It's worth a fortune and i'm sure from a breeding point of view it would be £££ if Frankel's half-brother won the race he won a couple of years ago.
He had 6 runs by the end of the July so would have needed a break. He was also entered in the Juddmonte and Irish Champion but they decided to wait for this, probably due to the more favourable ground. |
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There has to be some kind of chance Free Eagle is a non-runner on Soft? He would not have drifted to 5/1 before the 6-day decs otherwise. A shame if he is but they have next season to look forward to. We'll see anyway!
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Will actually be more like 12 weeks come Saturday since Noble Mission last ran.
With regards to Free Eagle, the only comments I can remember where along the lines of the horse still being unsure of its self in the final furlong and it still finding its feet in races. Does suggest it could still open to more improvement, but also suggests he'll be uneasy if ran having never raced on soft ground. |
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The weather forecast on the Beeb yesterday said were are in line for a mini heat wave at the weekend. There are showers around so the ground will remain holding but I doubt it will heavy or even soft. It is important to know the new drainage in the homestraight will provide much better ground in the home straight. That may be detrimental to Noble Mission who I really cannot see winning anyway.
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"Racing Post @RacingPost 8m8 minutes ago
After 42mm of rain in the past 48 hours the going at Ascot is now heavy. Forecast remains unsettled with rain possible most days this week." There were some worries of the meeting being abandoned. Personally I don't think it will be worse then soft ground on Saturday. |
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Looks a simple race to analyse : Noble Mission gallops away from the front in horrid holding sticky old ground and CDA is the only one who can possibly hope to get anywhere near him. So a big ew bet on NM and trade out the win part at 2s on IR. Play the RF with CDA as the race probably only concerns these two. GL.
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It may well be the same w/e brandy but that doesn't get away from the fact the switch to Ascot was a diabolical decision, and it has ruined what was a proper end of season showpiece at HQ.
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its a shame that there have been so many defections. I am really looking forward to the day in any case and will be bringing the umbrella to Ascot. It hasn't always been dreadful weather, when Frankel won in 2011 the ground was excellent.
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Cirrus needs to improve on his run in the Dollar, but is just as likely to regress imo after such a hard race post-layoff.
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ROTW beat Flintshire as far as CDA in the Coronation Cup and he finished just behind CDA in the Champion last year after going all around the outside and on soft ground. In my opinion he is the main danger to CDA in fact I think he will beat him. I have backed ROTW at big prices and also backed A Kazeem at big prices as well. Both were only beaten less than 6 lengths in the Arc where I think ROTW would have prefered softer and shorter and Al Kazeem would have prefered it softer. A lot has been made of Flintshire finishing 2nd to CDA in the Coronation Cup and I hade been waiting to back the horse that day but Fabre said on the day that he was only 80% and his trip was a prep for the King George. He was well backed for the King George but had a temperature on the day and didn't run.
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that's funny Brig as before the Foy/Arc you were saying ROTW needed Good ground. Personally I think all ground comes alike to him. He should have won the Prix Niel last season when it was soft. He handles all types of ground and he'll be a saving bet for me. Tactically he could have the race set up for him.
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I think it is asking a lot for CDA to come back and win the Champion Stakes having been off this summer with an injury and at the age of 8. If he does then amazing credit to him and trainer but I couldn't consider backing him at 13/8, or even 5/2.
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Sint, I had a speculative little punt on ROTW in the Arc in the hope that he could still show improvement. I thought in the event it was a pretty poor performance with no excuses. Dettori gave him a perfect ride in a race with little early pace, yet he was still run down by the likes of Dolniya and Prince Gibraltar. I don't read this year's Arc form as particularly strong in behind the winner, take away the name of the race and the form behind is nothing special, but that's just my opinion. Rather than showing any progression I see ROTW's Arc run as a regressive run. He would need to improve in line with wfa from last year to go close in this race but I see no evidence of it. I would never say he can't win but personally I wouldn't back him at three times his current price on this year's form.
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Will wait and see what's in the paddock on the day,tempted by a few but no value in a non .
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I tend to agree Figgis which is why i'll only have a saving stake. Coming into the race last season at least he had excuses for being beaten well. He got knocked about and had no luck in running. This time around as you say he got a good ride and had a plum draw. Personally I think folk are dismissing NA too lightly but that's up to them.
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rained all morning still raining, rain tomorrow afternoon and through the evening
could be barely raceable Thursday morning james franshawe only man smiling |