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Qipco Champion Stakes 18th October.
Qipco Champion Stakes 18th October.
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Heavy overnight rain again at Ascot.. Stick reading on round course is now only 5 !!!
I would suspect there is absolutely no chance of Free Eagle running. |
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A sad loss for the race and bookmakers if that's the case.
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ffs, maybe I have not explained my view properly on the 8f-10f, They race over 8f at 2yrlds with high quality events at that distance,this builds exagerated ratings,the 12f classic contender will wait nearly a year on and the very best will never be seen in true light?racing at distances under their prefered(a learning process)
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This explains the MJ - Prescott habit of improving horses stepping up in trip,Treve would have walked a Leger in my opinion.
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I very often rate a 12f event in terms of lbs per length the same as a 10f race,just for a rough guide,(just a seperate potencial figure) this can prove indifferent and fool hardy but interesting.
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JOB rides ROTW, not Dettori.
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As there is only one Coolmore horse in the race this is hardly surprising. Would be pretty damning if AOB didn't let Joseph ride.
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I did think JOB might ride ROTW and he should be good enough if the horse is good enough but if the horse needs that little bit of maic to win then Frankie is your man.
CDA drawn widest and that didn't suit ROTW last year but if the ground churns up by the earlier races the rail may not be the best place. The law of s o d. |
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*magic
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There are only two races on the round course before the Champion and they have moved the rail so it really shouldn't be that inconvenient along the rail.
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Is the mile handicap on the round or straight course, does
anyone know? Thanks in advance. |
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I have been back over three years and cannot find a stick reading any lower than 5 on either flat or jumps. It must be really deep in places
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Yep, more rain too and I dubious of the improved going report yesterday before the rain, they will clearly be desperate for the meeting to go ahead. It is going to be a right slog in the mud.
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but how can it be so bad if not heavy all round -- and from what I see the outlook is much improved -- I actually think it will be soft. Be v interesting to see the latest update.
and bazzar the Balmoral is on the straight. |
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I agree with John.W.Henry, 5 is a very low reading for the course, hard to see how it can be anything but heavy at the moment and I'd normally expect it to take longer to shift from heavy to soft than, say, soft to good to soft.
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Reports of a 'monster' storm coming in off the Atlantic in the next couple of days don't auger well for lovers of good ground!
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what chance that Free Eagle actually runs? I thought Dermot had said he was almost a certain non-runner on heavy ground? Wonder if anyone will refund stakes on the AP market if he is pulled.
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Thanks for the info, ffs.
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huge amount of rain homing in on Ascot atm - it won't escape another 10-15mm it looks like.
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Let's hope the meeting is on because I'm going!!
About to have a monster bet on CDA, so pls try to convince me otherwise if I'm insane. My view of this years form - CDA beats Arc winner in a war - CDA beats arc second on its best ground/trip - easily - CDA from on heavy is astonishing - CDA runs best when run recently, it has. Pls let free eagle run! |
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No going update from Stickels yet today - obviously wants to keep quiet after the course took at least another 10-15mm last night.
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Draw Horse OR (Mj best of last 4 runs)
1 (8) Al Kazeem 117 (120) 2 (9) Cirrus Des Aigles 123 (127) 3 (5) Noble Mission 117 (121) 4 (7) Pether's Moon 114 (118) 5 (1) Ruler Of The World 122 (126) 6 (3) Sheikhzayedroad 113 (116) 7 (4) Ayrad 105 (111) 8 (2) Free Eagle 105 (121) 9 (6) Western Hymn 112 (115) |
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Well it's been nice talking about it,a shame the bloody thing will probably be cancelled!
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they are claiming 5mm last night. still heavy soft in places according to the RP
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sorry my mistake 2.5mm
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can't believe 2.5mm having monitored rain radar.
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Remember, this is the one(run at all costs)
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if they get the 5 hrs of rain forecast tonight and rain thru tmrw morning. surely barely raceable
if misses heavy side of soft gluey ground |
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How fast does Ascot dry out?
if it doesn't rain again then it's going to be like a glue pot....the old boy CDA might be the one to just keep on rolling in those sort of attritional conditions. Reckon we need a nice shower tomorrow to open the ground back up... |
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I like the accu weather hourly forecast which gives a good indication of chances of rain.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/ascot/sl5-7/hourly-weather-forecast/331506 At best the ground will be soft. Most likely it will be heavy, soft in places with slightly better ground in the straight. |
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Stickels conceded it will have Heavy in description in the paper this morning, so Soft (Heavy in places) is probably best case scenario.
John W. Henry's observation about the going stick ratings above is the most pertinent piece of information I've read about the going, one of the reasons why these threads are always worth reading, thanks to him for sharing. |
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I am really hoping the meeting is on as well as we have hospitality arranged and also on CDA at the 4/1 prices, dissapointed I am not going to be seeing Australia or Kingman though.
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Expect 2.3 mm of precipitation over the next 3 hours.
Expect 2.8 mm precipitation over the next 6 hours. Expect 3.8 mm precipitation over the next 12 hours. about another 10 mil to come |
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all the helicopters coming in will dry the straight a bit imo
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final thoughts
1:45 - FLYING OFFICER e/w like the route taken into race,ground no problem. 2:20 - LUCKY KRISTALE very small e/w,Thought the younger lot could take this,not been on this sort of ground,but could do ok? 2:55 - CHICQUITA ran a listless race in the Arc,but draw would have dulled hope?,hope for a revival.HADAATHA, excellent effort latest(have bet both) 3:30 - INTEGRAL,continues too impress,comes into the race the unfashionable way,e/w 4:05 - CIRRUS DES AIGLES, have bet,the old fella knows the game,but will need to find more than last start. 4:45 - CHATEZ, pin job. |
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Hi MJ. Looks like the rain ust kept coming. I'm working the weekend but hope to see a couple of races. I've taken on CDA and Noble Mission in the Champion so they will be bigish losers for me. The other races don't look like betting races really so I will looking at Gregorian and Gordon Lord Byron in the sprint. Chiquita in the F&M and the 3 year olds in the QE11. I'll make GLB my winner in the sprint I have alrady backed NOT antepost so I will have a few quid on Toormore with CS as my saver.If KF jumps Toormore out from his wide draw and leads he may just find his stride and show the form he showed in the Craven when he beat TGG etc. He hasn't been over raced and his Guineas run shows both RH's thought he should have beaten the other two Hannon horses.Could be a nice priced upset.Have a good one.
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*biggish.
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brigust, Have a good un
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Have laid off my e/w stake on Cirrus (backed @ 9/2) so I hope Free Eagle is a non runner to reduce my lay odds even further.
Have also put up an in running lay of Noble Mission @ 2/1 (backed at 14/1) I have also backed Western Hymn @ 20/1 - been tipping him for big races all year that he hasn't ended up running in so had to have something on.  |