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Qipco Champion Stakes 18th October.
Qipco Champion Stakes 18th October.
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I find the current official 123 rating of CDA insulting too the horse, but that sort of mark is good enough to take this.
Figgis, if they decide not to take the lead on ROTW,they may be disapointed,his run in the ARC(a good one) was a prominant enough display,likewise when he beat flintshire,his hold up form looks murky? |
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I just hope this is a properly run race and that the dozy jocks don't allow Noble Mission into a 15 length lead, and leave it just too late to pick him off.
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Al Kazeem the value for me. Crying out for soft ground. At long last he will have his ground.
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Metro John, if they take the lead it's highly likely they'll be getting into an early battle with Noble Mission, which I wouldn't see as a good idea. For me, the Arc display was mediocre and a backward step. Dolniya and Prince Gibraltar finished ahead of him and I wouldn't fancy those two at all if they were in this race. Personally I didn't see that he would've run much better at the 10f point, he was asked for his effort just before then with little response. His only front running win was against Flintshire in the Foy, which some may see as his best form (I don't), but that race was run at a slow early pace and conducive to the tactics Dettori employed, this looks likely to be different. Either way I don't see him being good enough to win and his win price should be bigger.
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Presumably they will go the 'Bahri route' in Swinley Bottom and maybe even come middle to stands side up the straight (like Nathaniels King George)
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Al Kazeem's an interesting shout, not sure I understand why he's so much a bigger price than Ruler of the World - RotW's effort in last year's renewal in similar conditions entitles him to be a few points shorter but you can back Al Kazeem at about four times the price.
My concern would be his ability to put in an optimum performance just 13 days after the Arc but that applies to RotW too. |
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On this year's form I just don't see Al Kazeem as being the horse he was. I have him as a good 8lbs worse than his best form of last year. It could be argued he's more of a 10f horse so the Arc form didn't show him at his best but his display in the Irish Champion Stakes was very tame to say the least. That was far from the best Irish Champion I've seen yet he was absolutely hammered and showed nothing like his form in last year's race. I thought maybe the Windsor race could bring him on to at least something like his best but it seemed to have the opposite effect and bottomed him.
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Figgis, perhaps,just reflecting on Sea The Moon winning the German Derby,what a performance that was!
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Was AK's run in the Irish Champion really that bad? Beaten 7 lengths by TGG giving him 7lbs.His Arc perfromance was acceptable (no better than that) and he beat True Story in a course record time at Windsor (OK, it was Windsor).
He has to give the 3yos 5lbs here but are any of them in the class of TGG and Australia? We'll find out on Saturday I suppose. Having said all that, I won't be backing him because I think they've asked quite a lot of him since he returned to training but I can see why he might appeal to some at 25/1 (a bit bigger on here). |
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Actually I think the Windsor run was his best run this year. In the Irish Champion last year he gave Trading Leather 7lbs and beat him 2 lengths, in this year's race Trading Leather on level weights turned that around by four lengths, despite Trading Leather showing nothing to suggest he's an improved horse this year. Not that such things are always definitive proof but his time performances this year have also been well under what he achieved last year and Charlton has been noticeably far less confident when speaking about him compared to last year.
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I never thought I would ever back AK in a Group 1 but his proximity to ROTW in last years Arc was comparable to this years so he may be getting back to peak fitness. So that gives us CDA closely linked to ROTW who is closely linked to AK who is closely linked to Prince Gibraltar who is closely linked to Western Hymn.
In short I have no idea what will win I just cannot see the race being bad enough for Noble Mission to win and CDA is now too short for a horse who gets beaten a lot. |
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Hello brigust, It promises to be a tactical battle,I am really interested to see which tactics they employ with CDA,I would be tempted to hold it a little longer,but no more than 4 off the pace,which he could make?
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I find the current official 123 rating of CDA insulting too the horse, but that sort of mark is good enough to take this.
I agree, Metro John, that rating is an insult when compared to some others around him, although it's obvious that he's not quite the horse he was both from a time and form perspective. Along with that, I don't think there are many sensible seasoned racing fans out there who would try to argue that flat horses don't deteriorate somewhat in speed by the age of 8, if not 7. It matters not that most Gp1 horses are retired before that age, there is a ton of evidence out there at lower grades that proves the breed declines in speed by that age. Nevertheless, CDA's best form this year has still been very good, unless you take the view that every horse he beats has excuses, excuses that are rarely applied to him. It's a great pity that Flintshire isn't running here to provide some evidence to the level of the Arc form. |
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yes figgis,that is a good point or two you make,Flintshire would have needed that first run of season? and that makes this race most interesting,but going back to that first run by Treve,I saw no signs of sweating from Treve that day ,my gut feeling was that maybe it was a little too soon,but in hindsight,I feel Treve a true stayer. CDA could run a bad race at any time,but still amazes most of us with such a game attitude,a real battler with speed and stamina,I do question the trainers race planning a little(a Group2 with a penalty not everyones idea of a good race for a 8yrld?),and without any doubt in my mind,this horse could and should have won better races with more patience.
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That's possibly true, mj, but it's difficult to be too critical of his handling, as from early accounts about him it seems he would've been disregarded by most handlers, whereas he clearly thrived where he is.
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How else do you prep a horse if not in a lower Grade with a pen MJ? I think he's been handled superbly tbh especially with the few injury setbacks he's had over the years.
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Hi MJ. I don't think it will be tactical at all with a guaranteed pace ensured and not a big field so the draw shouldn't make a massive difference. I see no reason at all why the best horse shouldn't win.
One thing I did notice was that CDA has met very few 3 year olds since his 2nd to Frankel. The few he has beaten have not won a race since and the 3 year olds that have beaten him are Trading Leather, Hillstar and Penglai Pavilion. In his last race the two 3 year olds were not great and finished right behind him. Surely if Western Hymn and Free Eagle are classic horses they should beat him. |
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7 yearold CDA was generally a horse well below his best and close to being retired, it was only his performance in this race last year that reprieved him. He has been much better this year compared to last. Also brig the 3 year olds you mention who finished ahead of him were generally carrying 10lbs less then him (he beat Hillstar later). The 3 year olds are only 4lbs better here.
I don't see Free Eagle running. Weather forecast is for rain till Friday night and sunny Saturday. Won't dry up enough, and the straight shouldn't be a bog which will play right into CDAs hand more then Noble Missions. Western Hymn could go well and if he was trained by anyone else other then John Gosden I wouldn't consider him being a factor. Will definitely be listening out for any comments he makes regarding the horse. |
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ROTW is quite weak on here fwiw, 10/1.
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brigust, Yes I can see your point,I could easily convince myself on ratings and some formlines that Free Eagle should win this,but he is not yet proven battle proof,he may have 2 lenghts in hand,but never had this kind of company matching him in the final 2 furlong
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Ground was far too quick for AK in Ireland.
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A lot of pace in this race,which one or two or three will commit? It is tactical,and Western hymm is interesting from this viewpoint because he could pick up the pieces,the softer the better for him.(but generally lacking pace himself and may get too far behind?)
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I thought Western Hymn showed a good turn of foot in the Eugene Adam, albeit beating Army Bulletin and Master Carpenter would n't be anything to write home about.
The next time, at Deauville in August, I think connections suggested the ground was just too heavy but my impression was that Buick and Soumi both thought each other were the one to beat and gave the front two too much rope. |
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Add to that point Rease was the fact that Prince Gibraltar then beat most of these in the Arc. PG may have benefited from first time blinkers but there are no clues to go on. He may have just prefered the better ground.
More importantly it doesn't seem to have stopped raining yet so the new drainage will have to do it's job. When Frankel ran it was soft/heavy in places on the Friday then with a dry night it was soft and Jason Weaver at the track said the straight course was nearer good to soft so a couple of dry days wouldn't go amiss. |
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^^^^^In the Deauville race PrinceGibraltar nosed Western Hymn out of the places. They had both sat at the back and gave the leaders too much rope.
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I've never seen one bit of evidence that AK wants soft ground - he ran a trio of top races on Good and G/F - he may have been feeling the ground but he acted best on it. When he got a cut, in the Irish Champion, he dropped off.
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Times proved the ground wasn't anywhere near the description the day of the Irish Champion, ffs.
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Could Free Eagle be the best placed horse of the season?. A massive performance just 35 days ago which would see him 2nd rated just a few pounds below CDA over this distance,the ideal preperation and a fresh horse,running against horses who have had some tough races this year,and posistioned in a race where if impressive in victory, he could come out with the best rating of the year,and possibly retire the supreme champion
 ,Mr Weld must be excited.I do not take the above view,I would consider decreasing achived rating by 4-6 lb for the rise in class against better horses,but that said,he could do it and what an outcome to a strange year that would be?,do you think he can? |
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Is this the way foward for trainers,let the others race all year and meet them fresh to steal a rating
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You know sometimes you look at your ratings and think is this correct,Free Eagle rated 128 for racing on his own after an injury and lay off,and Treve rated 129 for winning the best race in Europe? I will leave you to ponder on this.
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Free Eagle's time proved it. Clock never lies, and he was only just pushed out in the final 200m, put the race to bed in a matter of strides .. will take a good cut (will race on soft) ... hasn't been 'tucked away' ... had a stress fracture is all.
No doubt he can win this, it's a very weak field. |
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The best horse all year was Australia - closely followed by TGG - (or Treve if you prefer that route) ... there's a direct, unambiguous line thru Aus and TGG to Free Eagle - that says it all.
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But he did that without any challengers to test him,that will not be the case on Saturday(or will it?)
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I do feel we handicappers treat the 12f form inferior,a top quality field in the Arc only rated 1 lb higher than a solo trial in paddy land!
 , and I am unsure.? |
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lol - he was just far too good ... ?? is he supposed to be downgraded for being exceptional
 he's a perfectly fine racehorse, from a terrific Moyglare family -- nothing amiss there. |
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It's that frankel senario again,the 10f - 8f horses getting better rated than the 12f sorts.
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Ascot should be sending me a check for this piece of easy sell,what a race,out of the blue we have the best race of the season
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yeah it was top quality in the Arc ... where was the Derby winner ... ?
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The English and French Derby winners chickened out of the ARC and again here,they obviously don't like the thought of taking on the better older horses? Concerning Taghrooda and the 12f form,it was deserving even if I thought a weak KG,the fact is that the 8-10f sorts have far more options to achieve better or exagerated ratings because of our rating scales.
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