I am very disappointed that Zawraq and Best Of Times are not running.
My major bet is on Storm The Stars so I should be pleased but I am pi55ed off.
I obviously don't understand 80%.
And now John Gosden is talking himself into taking out Jack Hobbs.

Serves Zawraq's connections right for missing two Guineas with him to wait for this. Very bad luck for his backers though.

Howellsy, I agree that the stamina issue has been overstated regarding Golden Horn. Since his debut I've always thought he'd get 12f. From my standards I'd say the 1m75y at Nottingham takes some getting for a 2yo even that late in the season, particularly on good to soft going. Even though the early pace was slow that day the race provided enough of a test and he came home very well. The owners may have been saying he's more of a 10f horse but Gosden appeared to have no qualms about debuting him over that trip in those conditions.

As you say, the big question is will he be good enough? I agree with Sandown that the Dante time was decent but really no more than about average for the race, despite reading elsewhere that it was supposed to be a great time. I know that horses can show improved form on the big day but I don't subscribe to the theory that most do, I believe that in most cases it is due to their previous races not being run at a great pace. That can't be said about Golden Horn, the pace of the Dante was a true one and every horse had the chance to show what it can do. Maybe some might think he had more in the tank but that's not how I saw it.

In my view the Dante form is good enough for him to be thereabouts but wouldn't be good enough to win in an average year. Of course, this could be a below average year, however at current odds I won't be backing him in the hope that it is.

How much Rain has track seen and how much is expected ? what is ground just now ?

agree with Figgis and what he is written about the Dante. It certainly wasn't a great time and Golden Horn is no superstar in the Sea The Stars / Australia / Galileo mode.

Hence willing to overlook the Dante 1-2-3 and look elsewhere with that trio taking a massive percentage of the book.

In an ordinary Derby at best, willing to take a punt on Kilimanjaro at 20/1. Could be improving fast, I thought he handled the Lingfield hill perfectly fine despite what written elsewhere and pretty much hands and heels to win, still a green horse to me. His timefigure compared well to what the rest of this field have shown so far.

Also assuming that Joseph would have the choice over Heffernan, so presumably this rates a better chance than Hans Holbein at least? Given that one is fifth in the market, got to be thinking Kilimanjaro way overpriced as a guaranteed stayer which the favourite definitely is not

GH may not have recorded a good time in Dante but beat the field with authority (Elm Park was supposed to be trained to win guineas without a prep race - after Dante said would come on for the run?). Gosden has always expressed doubts about JH's maturity/ability to act on track. O'Brien never been bullish about his. Connections said before guineas that Moheet wasn't ready, prob won't be good enough but you can say that about nearly every runner.

I did see it, slow ground half speed stuff (against a slow horse) unless their is a gd bit of ease in the ground i cant have him myself.

This rain wont do Golden Horn any favours either imo.
Think his price will be better 2moro morn, esp after this morns rain, now gd/g/s in places
Hopefully no more rain 2day or 2moro, Epsom does dry out well.

Of this field the fastest horse I've clocked and most visually impressive was Jack Hobbs in the Sandown handicap. For me, he didn't quite run his race in the Dante, maybe the race came too soon after Sandown. At the price I'm willing to give him another chance and he's my only bet.

the lovely gina bryce and emma ramsden have gone for jack hobbs figgis as there charity bet, was that in your thinking when coming up with your selection?

i'm with jack hobbs here but also praying for an elm park miracle, lots of pace guaranteed which should set it up for the closers, the track remains the problem for jack hobbs as he does tend to hang but hopefully he should get a perfect trip today unlike at york where he was caught out wide...

elm park has had more knockers on his door than a jehovah's witness working over time but i'm still hopeful he has just been trained for this day imo (is he good enough is another matter?) and although the other two horses are open to more improvement having raced a lot less than him, he hadn't had a prep run, if he did come forward like i think he will he has a chance at least, after all he ran a very poor figure as a 2 year old first time out and is a big horse... i still think he will race them, i just hope he stays, anyway no one can have him on there mind, so all we can do now is pray as we are still getting a juicy price to find out... find!!!!

Can't remember a Derby where there were so many ifs and buts as this race especially regarding horses at the front end of the market.

For once I do not have a very firm opinion on the race. GH is the most likely winner but the evidence against it (pedigree) not staying is pretty strong.At the price I just can't back it even as a saver. The ground will be fast as I predicted and to my mind a lot of these will not improve for fast ground including EP,SD,JH,Epicuris,. There a few real no-hopers in CD,Moheet which leaves me with the AOB contingent. I'm going to go against Ryan Moores judgement and plump for HH each way at around 18.0. He stays 12f easily (bred for the St Leger) and importantly I judge him to be a horse with an action suited to fast ground despite his form on soft. He will probably attempt to make all so hopefully will keep out of trouble.

This is mainly a value bet for me, as I would put his chance in single digits.

I have Giovanni Canaletto, Epicuris and Moheet on my side.

Question is, will they improve for fast ground? Just as with the 12f ,they probably won't win.

Another question is does he need to improve. Form ratings after the race will tell us the winner improved because they're compiled with an inbuilt mechanism to inflate them after such races, just like every handicap winner is supposed to have improved to win and every horse is supposed to improve with age at the same rate. By my reckoning, and I know everyone won't agree, his Sandown effort was a better time performance than at York, he would barely need to improve on that in a moderate year. To me he never looked quite right at York. Obviously I'm using limited data and I may be wrong, maybe he did run his race at York and GH is simply the better horse. Of course there may be another potential big improver lurking but if there is it's too difficult for me to find. I think the price on JH allows for such occurrences.

Ground now in Golden Horns favour & if he stays the 12f he will win this comfy imo.
Not my kind of price for a bet, but would not want to bet against him 2day, hope he wins.
Had a small place interest on here a while ago on Giovanni Canaletto 5.6, but he needs to take a big step forward from his prep run, 1st time CPs are interesting, they did the trick for his Brother Ruler of the World, if so, he could go well & grab a place.
Dont fancy the Dante 2nd & 3rd myself, ground & track would be a big concern for me with those 2.
Gd luck with your plays lads

112 Golden Horn
108 Jack Hobbs
108 Success Days
105 Elm Park
104 Giovanni Canaletto
103 Epicuris
103 Storm The Stars

Can't see Success Days or Epicuris featuring on this track on this ground; STorm The Stars could pick up a piece of it if others disappoint but makes no appeal as a winner to me.
Giovanni is the only one I could see improving significantly for the trip but it's only 13 days since he ran and clearly that trial was not as competitive as the Dante. However, not ruled out - the best pedigree for this by far.
I dismissed Elm Park rudely on another thread but watching the Dante again I did note that he travelled better than Hobbs for a very long way in the straight and looked speedier. I still can't see him winning and I don't think his 2yo form amounts to anything much, but I respect him a lot more after reviewing the Dante.
Jack Hobbs should stay, being by Halling who is clearly a strong influence for stamina, although the dam side isn't screaming 12f to me. He surely learnt a lot from the Dante, given a strangely mediocre ride, three wide in such a small field. Showed a great attitude in the straight and kept finding. Can see why people have doubts about him handling the track but will know a lot more now. What would Golden Horn have learnt from the race?
Nevertheless, Golden Horn did look impressive, although I can see the argument that he simply watched it all fall apart in front of him before picking up the pieces. However, for me he did settle and travel supremely well which is a huge advantage. Around Epsom all it takes is  bump early for that amenability to be threatened, but the smaller field reduces the chances of a rough race to an extent. I am quite confident he will stay. Cape Cross is a big influence for stamina and two of his top ten horses, Crystal Cappella and Corsica, had no particular business staying a trip on the dam side but did so in their 3yo careers. It's hardly certain on pedigree but it's not an 8-10f pedigree as some have suggested. 10-12 imo.
I think we'll see a replica of the Dante finish.

Look for some soft ground horses, or some that have a slight preference for cut, and see how they perform during the other races today...

think the ground is also likely to help Hans Holbein if it does go g/f.....now he will stay.

wont place a bet till near the off but ....

good ...kilimanjairo ew
gf...hans holbein ew.

small ew on moheet

laying the fav

Figgis, fwiw I had Australia running to 85 in last year's Derby, and J Hobbs running to 80 at Sandown, and as you say it was a card that locked together very nicely. I didn't find it easy to rate the Dante but in the end I felt it was feasible that Hobbs ran to his Sandown figure which would mean Elm Park 3 lbs below his 2yo best and Golden Horn running to 85, a 9 point improvement from Newmarket. That's how I've made sense of it. The Dante was 1.8 seconds quicker than the Middleton - surely every reason to give it a big figure?

Harry C

Do you not think jack hobbs will improve for the trip sandown?


His pedigree suggests he will and at York he looked to be running on. My greater concern is that he is a heavy topped horse almost certainly more suited to a flatter track like the Curragh or Ascot so I can see Gosden not running him tbh now the going has changed to gf. He has the fav so there is more chance of pulling him out than there would otherwise be. As I've said, the ground is against several horses today.