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Horse Antepost
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These 362 comments are related to the topic:
Derby 2015
Derby 2015
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Replies: 362
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sandown i'm not really a trends man at all if i'm honest but do like a look and i find the 35 day trend useful and the horse starting at a grade 1 track also interests me especially in regards to a top trainer
i am with you on zawraq and think he could be the best of these bar GH who is at least a grade 1 horse admittedly a low one, my main problem with zawraq is he is a sharmadal and he hasn't prepped...this just isn't ideal more for the education of the horse than anything else. i have no doubt his trainer would have him spot on conditioning wise i know there are a lot of knockers of elm park on here and in fairness i agree to an extent but i think the key to him is needing to lead and use his stride, he was changing his legs in behind the leader at york as he did at newmarket and like he did at epsom the other day, the main problem is will he be able to dictate as i see 4 others who want to be up there success days, storm the stars, hans holbein and even epicuris want to be up there so pace is guaranteed, this won't help elm park but these horses wouldn't be as quick as the miler that took him on at york when he was enable to dictate, anyway it looks like it will be set up for the closers imo just need to know the ground now and whether zawraq makes it but it is very tight betting heat, with all the horses with questions to answer imo |
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I was really bullish about Zawaq until todays news , I Mite back him again at 7s NRNB cos he will only run if A1 as cant see them risking if not 100 %.
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Moore confirmed he will ride Caneletto. Racing post.
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Are punters backing potential, and inexperience?
Golden Horn (3.0) 3 runs Jack Hobbs (7.8) 3 runs Giovanni Canaletto (8.4) 3 runs Zawraq (9.6) 2 runs Elm Park (10.5) 6 runs |
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As I wrote earlier Hans Holbein will probably have the best jockey on board, which obviously is not Ryan Moore
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Aidan O described Kiliman as a " big cruiser " could some tell me waht does he mean by that ?
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Suspect HH will be used as a pacemaker by O Brien with Joseph on Kilmanjaro
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@G1_Jockey_4 -- Nick Mordin no longer writes for the Weekender but in any case abandoned dosage several years ago. Steve Miller normally has a dosage-based preview.
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i hate to be a stat buster , but not all Derby winner's had won over 7f at 2 in the last 15 year's ,i believe Ruler of the world did not run as a 2yr old . For what it's worth il have jack , and the nutter Epicuris ,and i hope he runs like that other mad fecker newapproach ,pulls like train ,throw's the toys of the pram .........and quick's up that hill like a good one .Mind you the sp stat doesn't help
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How much rain did Epsom get yesterday?
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not a lot sint
http://maps.turftrax.co.uk/latestgoingreport.asp?course=epsom |
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ah ok ramruna.
i usually bought the weekender the week the dosage was in the paper. always been away last few years and keep missing it...hence why i didnt even realise mordin wasnt there anymore. |
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There is a "Dosage analysis" by Steve Miller on page 14 of the Racing Post Weekender.
But I do miss Nick Mordin's articles.  |
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This is not a rhetorical question - I am looking for answers!
Here is a profile: Clear Derby favourite - say 2/1 ish Almost certainly not a miler, and not run over a mile at 3 Convincing winner of Dante or similar 10 furlong trial Did not win Derby but ran well - seemed to fail only due to lack of stamina His Derby was not won by top class 12f horse Later proved top class horse over 10f (strongly suggesting Derby defeat was not due to class) Name me some horses from yesteryear with this sort of profile please. |
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According to a report on atr 2day, Zawraq is 80% certain 2 run, seems only to be a minor nick.
Hope the weather forecast is right over the next few days & we get some gd/fast ground for Fri & Sat. All runners lining up on Sat, i would expect 3s the field on Sat morn & it should be imo. |
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Howellsy
Too many conditions. Here are a few who didn't win. Razeen (1987)____________9/2f, won Predominate Stakes, Goodwood, 10f Corrupt (1988)___________4/1j, won Lingfield Derby Trial 11.5f Tenby (1990)_____________4/5f, won Dante Stakes 10f by 3l Dushyantor (1993)________9/2f, 2nd in Dante Stakes btn 1/2l Dubai Millennium (1996)__5/1f, won Predominate Stakes, Goodwood, 10f by 3 1/2 lengths Beat Hollow (1997)_______7/2f, won Newmarket Stakes 10f Gypsy King (2002)________7/2f, won Dee Stakes 10.5f Visindar (2003)__________2/1f, won Prix Greffulhe 10f Casual Conquest (2005)___7/2f, won Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial 10f Fame And Glory (2006)____9/4f, won Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial 10f Jan Vermeer (2007)_______9/4f, won Gallinule Stakes 10f Carlton House (2008)_____5/2f, won Dante Stakes 10f Probably Dubai Millennium closes to all your many requirements, 9th in Epsom Derby btn 9l. Afterwards 2xGr1 (8 furlongs); 2 x Gr1, 1x Gr2, 1 x Gr 3 (10 furlongs). Beaten by Oath in the Derby who ran one more when 7th of 8 in King George & Queen Elizabeth II |
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year___Dante_________________________Derby Favourites
1958___Bald Eagle____________________1958_Wallaby_______________4/1_[was 19 of 20] 1959___Dickens_______________________1959_Shantung_______________11/2_[was 3 of 20] 1960___St Paddy______________________1960_Angers_______________2/1_[was fell of 17] 1961___Gallant Knight________________1961_Moutiers_______________5/1_[was 25 of 28] 1962___Lucky Brief___________________1962_Hethersett_____________9/2_[was fell of 26] 1963___Merchant Venturer_____________1963_Relko______________won 5/1_[was 1 of 26] 1964___Sweet Moss____________________1964_Santa Claus________won 15/8_[was 1 of 17] 1965___Ballymarais___________________1965_Sea-Bird___________won 7/4_[was 1 of 22] 1966___Hermes________________________1966_Right Noble____________9/2_[was 9 of 25] 1966_________________________________1966_Pretendre______________9/2_[was 2 of 25] 1967___Gay Garland___________________1967_Royal Palace_______won 7/4_[was 1 of 22] 1968___Lucky Finish__________________1968_Sir Ivor___________won 4/5_[was 1 of 13] 1969___Activator_____________________1969_Ribofilio______________7/2_[was 5 of 26] 1970___Approval______________________1970_Nijinsky___________won 11/8_[was 1 of 11] 1971___Fair World____________________1971_Mill Reef__________won 100/30_[was 1 of 21] 1972___Rheingold_____________________1972_Roberto____________won 3/1_[was 1 of 22] 1973___Owen Dudley___________________1973_Ksar_______________5/1_[was 4 of 25] 1974___Honoured Guest________________1974_Nonoalco_______________9/4_[was 7 of 18] 1975___Hobnob________________________1975_Green Dancer___________6/4_[was 6 of 18] 1976___Trasi'S Son___________________1976_Wollow_______________11/10_[was 5 of 23] 1977___Lucky Sovereign_______________1977_Blushing Groom_________9/4_[was 3 of 22] 1978___Shirley Heights_______________1978_Inkerman_______________4/1_[was 21 of 25] 1979___Lyphard'S Wish________________1979_Ela-Mana-Mou___________9/2_[was 4 of 23] 1980___Hello Gorgeous________________1980_Nikoli_______________4/1_[was 8 of 24] 1981___Beldale Flutter_______________1981_Shergar____________won 10/11_[was 1 of 18] 1982___Simply Great__________________1982_Golden Fleece______won 3/1_[was 1 of 18] 1983___Hot Touch_____________________1983_Teenoso____________won 9/2_[was 1 of 21] 1984___Claude Monet__________________1984_El Gran Senor__________8/11_[was 2 of 17] 1985___Damister______________________1985_Slip Anchor________won 9/4_[was 1 of 14] 1986___Shahrastani___________________1986_Dancing Brave__________2/1_[was 2 of 17] 1987___Reference Point_______________1987_Reference Point____won 6/4_[was 1 of 19] 1988___Red Glow______________________1988_Red Glow_______________5/2_[was 4 of 14] 1989___Torjoun_______________________1989_Nashwan____________won 5/4_[was 1 of 12] 1990___Sanglamore____________________1990_Razeen_______________9/2_[was 14 of 18] 1991___Environment Friend____________1991_Toulon_______________4/1_[was 9 of 13] 1991_________________________________1991_Corrupt_______________4/1_[was 6 of 13] 1992___Alnasr Alwasheek______________1992_Rodrigo de Triano______13/2_[was 9 of 18] 1993___Tenby_________________________1993_Tenby_______________4/5_[was 10 of 16] 1994___Erhaab________________________1994_Erhaab_____________won 7/2_[was 1 of 25] 1995___Classic Cliche________________1995_Pennekamp______________11/8_[was 11 of 15] 1996___Glory Of Dancer_______________1996_Dushyantor_____________9/2_[was 2 of 20] 1997___Benny The Dip_________________1997_Entrepreneur___________4/6_[was 4 of 13] 1998___Saratoga Springs______________1998_Cape Verdi_____________11/4_[was 9 of 15] 1999___Salford Express_______________1999_Dubai Millennium_______5/1_[was 9 of 16] 2000___Sakhee________________________2000_Beat Hollow____________7/2_[was 3 of 15] 2001___Dilshaan______________________2001_Galileo____________won 11/4_[was 1 of 12] 2001_________________________________2001_Golan_______________11/4_[was 2 of 12] 2002___Moon Ballad___________________2002_Hawk Wing______________9/4_[was 2 of 12] 2003___Magistretti___________________2003_Refuse To Bend_________11/4_[was 13 of 20] 2004___North Light___________________2004_North Light________won 7/2_[was 1 of 14] 2004_________________________________2004_Snow Ridge_____________7/2_[was 7 of 14] 2005___Motivator_____________________2005_Motivator__________won 3/1_[was 1 of 13] 2006___Septimus______________________2006_Visindar_______________2/1_[was 5 of 18] 2007___Authorized____________________2007_Authorized_________won 5/4_[was 1 of 17] 2008___Tartan Bearer_________________2008_Casual Conquest________7/2_[was 3 of 16] 2009___Black Bear Island_____________2009_Fame And Glory_________9/4_[was 2 of 12] 2010___Cape Blanco___________________2010_Jan Vermeer____________9/4_[was 4 of 12] 2011___Carlton House_________________2011_Carlton House__________5/2_[was 3 of 13] 2012___Bonfire_______________________2012_Camelot____________won 8/13_[was 1 of 9] 2013___Libertarian___________________2013_Dawn Approach__________5/4_[was 12 of 12] 2014___The Grey Gatsby_______________2014_Australia__________won 11/8_[was 1 of 16] 2015___Golden Horn___________________ |
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In my pedigree database there are four horses sired by Sea The Stars out of a Sadler's Wells mare.
2011 Taghrooda won Epsom Oaks, King George IV & Queen Elizabeth II 2012 Storm The Stars, 2015 Epsom Derby 2013 Glamour Boy (John M Oxx), entries 2015 National Stakes; 2016 Epsom Derby 2013 00Unity (Hugo Palmer), entries 2016 Epsom Derby |
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Zawraq, Giovanni Canaletto and Epicuris for me. If Moheet touches 100/1 I will have a little on it as he appears to be improving. Unlikely to stay but one never knows until the day.
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Kingscem, thanks for your responses. Fascinating how few Dante winners went on to be favourite for the Derby. Of the three who didn't win, Carlton House won a palpably slowly run Dante and appeared to my eyes not to stay at Epsom but he never won again above group 3 level, so was not ultimately top class, rather like Tenby, who was also winless after Epsom. Red Glow I know nothing about. It's interesting there are few exact precedents though. Most of the famous non stayers were milers or horses who didn't prove all that good afterwards. If there's no top class stayer in the race, he'll surely win?
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Howellsy, but horses like Carlton House, Tenby and Red Glow were all thought to be top class before the event
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* potentially top class
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Granted Figgis. My point is that it's more likely to be a lack of class that beats GH, not the trip. I hope to be able to muster a horse by horse preview at some stage, but my basic argument is that only 3 horses can improve past Golden Horn: Zawraq (could just be a better horse), Jack Hobbs, and G Canaletto (both COULD be better at 12f than GH, but I doubt it on the ).
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Granted Figgis. My point is that it's more likely to be a lack of class that beats GH, not the trip. I hope to be able to muster a horse by horse preview at some stage, but my basic argument is that only 3 horses can improve past Golden Horn: Zawraq (could just be a better horse), Jack Hobbs, and G Canaletto (both COULD be better at 12f than GH, but I doubt it on the ).
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available evidence).
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so really howellsy you knew the answer to your original rhetorical question?
so just to back up your opinion that you think goldern horn will win? funny |
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A stupid statistic against Golden Horn in this 15 runner Derby
Only one favourite out of eighteen "15 runner Derbys" has won, Lemberg in 1905. Runners__________Fav won / Derbys 4 runner Derby____0 favs won / 1 races 5 runner Derby____0 favs won / 0 races 6 runner Derby____1 favs won / 3 races 7 runner Derby____3 favs won / 5 races 8 runner Derby____0 favs won / 3 races 9 runner Derby____5 favs won / 8 races 10 runner Derby___2 favs won / 8 races 11 runner Derby___10 favs won / 17 races 12 runner Derby___7 favs won / 15 races 13 runner Derby___7 favs won / 19 races 14 runner Derby___4 favs won / 9 races 15 runner Derby___1 favs won / 18 races 16 runner Derby___3 favs won / 9 races 17 runner Derby___4 favs won / 15 races 18 runner Derby___4 favs won / 15 races 19 runner Derby___2 favs won / 8 races 20 runner Derby___0 favs won / 8 races 21 runner Derby___3 favs won / 7 races 22 runner Derby___7 favs won / 14 races 23 runner Derby___3 favs won / 15 races 24 runner Derby___1 favs won / 4 races 25 runner Derby___3 favs won / 9 races 26 runner Derby___4 favs won / 8 races 27 runner Derby___5 favs won / 10 races 28 runner Derby___1 favs won / 2 races 29 runner Derby___2 favs won / 3 races 30 runner Derby___1 favs won / 8 races 31 runner Derby___0 favs won / 2 races 32 runner Derby___0 favs won / 3 races 33 runner Derby___2 favs won / 3 races 34 runner Derby___0 favs won / 1 races |
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Harry, I am fairly well acquainted with the last decade or so of the Derby but was hoping someone like Kingscem, with a vast knowledge of the race's history, would be able to help. My initial post clearly implied that I fancied Golden Horn, but I certainly didn't know whether or not there was a reasonably close match over the last fifty years or so. Do you?
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@Howellsy -- fwiw I'd say it is not uncommon for the Derby to be won by a colt whose optimum trip is probably 10f: Australia, for instance. It might have been John Gosden who said the certain stayers are often too slow, though probably the sentiment is far older.
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The first 3 home in the Dante go on to run in the Derby. Also, the beaten 5/2 Fav and an unplaced Stoute horse both unplaced in the Dante also go on to the Derby. The sh hd second in the 2000 Gns ,and the beaten Gns fav (the 4th home)both go on to Derby.Surely one of these will win the Derby?
No, the winner was a maiden winner, only run twice, never further than 8f, who hadn't run that year.Price 12/1. The year was 1996. The horse? Shaamit. Sometimes the unexpected happens. This year has the same feel to it. |
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looks like zawrak as gone
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fwiw I'd say it is not uncommon for the Derby to be won by a colt whose optimum trip is probably 10f
Although its much more common imo that the winner is a 12f horse who has the speed to win at 10f |
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looks like zawrak as gone
The bulletin yesterday that it had an 80% chance was somewhat over optimistic and very misleading.  |
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the perils of ante post betting.....
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That's two markets this week where important scratchings have come just a few minutes before 10am. Surely trainers can wait until the deadline rather than allow the antepost markets to be corrupted? Naive of me, I know...
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was just completing my last bit of form work (bar a change from expected good going) when zawrak got scratched.
saved me a bit of time....  |
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Now I see that Gosden could take out JH if the ground gets too fast plus there must be doubts about others who would prefer a bit of cut such as EP,SD,HH,Epicuris. Could turn into a fiasco.
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dont think gf would ever be an intention ....could surely only happen if rain was forecast up to race time and didnt arrive....enough fo a forecast to avoid watering in fear of soft ground.
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@Sandown -- could be too fast but there could be a mudbath depending on whether Friday's forecast scattered thunderstorms and flash floods avoid Epsom.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743
Met Office Warnings Issued For Greater London Yellow early warning of rain From:0600 on Fri 5 June To:2350 on Fri 5 June Updated 3 June at 12:15 Scattered thunderstorms are likely to extend northwards across eastern and southeastern areas of England during Friday giving some localised intense downpours. The public should be aware of the risk of localised surface water flooding which may lead to disruption to transport and outdoor activities. Frequent lightning could prove to be an additional hazard. The thunderstorms should clear away eastwards on Friday night.As is typical of this type of situation there is considerable uncertainty as regards the extent and timing of any thunderstorms, with some places within the warning area probably escaping the downpours. Therefore this warning will be kept under review and updated as necessary. So you pays your money and takes your choice. |