We want to share an important update with our Betfair Community users.
Over the coming months, the Betfair Community platform will be winding down. The final active day for the platform will be December 21st. From December 22nd, users will no longer be able to access the platform.
Your discussions, insights, engagement, and, most importantly, feedback have helped shape the platform and guided innovation. Your feedback continues to be important to us, and we will continue to listen via our dedicated feedback channels, as well as through product testing and innovations.
To share your feedback and experience, visit: https://support.betfair.com/app/home
Horse Antepost
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 362 comments are related to the topic:
Derby 2015
Derby 2015
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 362
|
By:
Any word regarding who might ride Epicuris?
|
|
By:
Assume it will be Thulliez unless they want an Epsom experienced jockey but if you`re on the best horse it doesn`t really matter.
 |
|
By:
By a massive margin Epicuris is the value at the moment. Bigger price than Gleneagles and Kilimanjaro on here....broadly the same as Canaletto? Got a big green which I wouldn't mind flattening but not unloading at 26 on a 10 chance. More inclined to go in again.
|
|
By:
On breeding there is a strong chance he will improve on a sound surface as Rail Link's often do so and seems a guaranteed stayer.
|
|
By:
The problem is that he is more temperamental than Kim Jong Un.
Only hope is that Nicolas Blondeau is a greater wizard than Harry Potter and manages to get him through the preliminaries and loaded in good shape. If he does then it's game on. Big if though. |
|
By:
Can see the idea of trading him but as for an outright bet it's looks pretty risky because of that temperament.
|
|
By:
Trouble is, if you have the Derby on a Sunday, everyone will have a hangover on the Monday.
 |
|
By:
Headmaster, I am waiting to trade Epicuris. Hoping that Coolmore will not run Found and Gleneagles and prices will contract and I can trade shorter than at present.
Worst case scenario is he is not confirmed. Will definitely trade before Thursday when a "day of the race" market is introduced based on the fact that he may not enter the stalls. |
|
By:
Stupid having 2 Derby threads. Posted on the other that the weather will have an impact. temperatures will reach 29 degrees by the weeken. expect the ground to be fast. This will not be of help to elm park or jack Hobbs imo as both have rounded actions and are heavy topped horses. Could even be a doubt about them running.
|
|
By:
Looks like Gleneagles will run.Could ruin the horse
|
|
By:
why run gleneagles?
|
|
By:
cathy seldon • June 1, 2015 7:51 AM BST
why run gleneagles? Cos its THE DERBY and they dont have a prayer of winning it with anything else. Nothing to lose a no brainer IMO. |
|
By:
Success days supplemented.
|
|
By:
Seems Coolmore have no brains then, geoff...
 |
|
By:
coolmore are clearly clueless. thought it was strange yesterday obrien just putting people away and laying the free money. cant blame him really.
|
|
By:
there was a lot of free money on Gleneagles overnight and this morning it looked a sure starter on ere somebody knew
|
|
By:
Really don't think O'Brien is going to put people away so someone could make several grand on here. To win 100k on a maiden in Ireland on the other hand...
|
|
By:
Fascinating supplement of Success Days
|
|
By:
coolmore are a unique breeding and training operation ( best in the world), who usually clean up every year in the classics, this year they dont seem to have an outstanding contender for the derby, will be hoping that the dante form is not just a flash in the pan and have backed the fav in multiple bets. as for gleneagles running in the derby, irish 2000 guineas was not a performance that would inspire you to be backing that for the derby IMO. goodluck all
|
|
By:
Elm Park currently 7/1 is allegedly better on soft, like when he won the 2yo Racing Post at Doncaster.
At Breakfast with the Stars Derby breeze up a few days ago, did he repeatedly change his lead leg? What is the latest going at Epsom? |
|
By:
I have been a fan of Elm Park yet still not backed him. My concern goes back to the Dante and Balding's reaction after the race. I think Balding was more than disappointed with the run and that the form of the race is questionable especially were the current prices are. The 2 O'Brien horses ran too bad for it to be their form.
I cannot have a horse that has won a handicap winning the Derby so I'm ignoring Jack Hobbs. I wouldn't mind having a 25-1 A/P voucher for Golden Horn which was his price when I noticed him in Timeform 50 to follow my A/P hope was Gosden's other Decorated Knight. I don't think Coolmore send their better horses for The Lingfield Trial. I should know as I backed Nevis for the Derby a few years ago before winning the Lingfield race, he never ran in The Derby. Of the first few in the betting I think Hans Holbein is the value and will be Pricewise on Saturday. I don't want him to win because the Coolmore domination is not good for the race. HH will most probably have the best jockey on board and will stay and has won a good recognised trial that Coolmore have used before. Come the day he will be 7-1 he is currently 12-1. I will look more in depth at the outsiders later. |
|
By:
I wouldn't rule out Ballydoyle winning again this year. Think there will be a strong pace on and you would think on breeding and previous runs their entries are guaranteed to stay unlike some of the others. This looks a terrible Derby and I'm not convinced about the Gosden pair and wouldn't back Elm Park with counterfeit. French jockeys on the whole not my cup of tea around here and the Weld horse's preparation cannot have been the best.
|
|
By:
After today, the picture for both Derby & Oaks has really cleared, imo.
We can all see the form for ourselves, look at the ratings and have an opinion on relative ability and chances.The key missing ingredient is the potential for improvement which nearly all Derby/Oaks winners usually find on the day. Ground and distance are key to finding the answer. The ground will imo play a huge part this year. After today, the forecast is for a dry week with temperatures rising to middle late 20's by Saturday. Epsom as we all know is a fast drying track and it as it is currently good it wouldn't surprise me to hear the word "watering" crop up. Whatever the clerk does, it will ride fast and handling the downhill and the camber will play to well balanced horses this year. Given that, why has Success Days been supplemented. He's a big rangy horse with a pronounced knee action. Similarly, I'll be very surprised if JH and EP relish the conditions. Nor HH. I doubt if any of these will improve for the conditions. The 2 horses at the head of the market, GH and Zawraq stand out. Both are well balanced horses with top of the ground actions. As the latter has raced only on soft surface I expect him to make the most improvement for the surface. As for stamina, both will be entering the unknown. Imo the stronger case can be made for Zawraq on breeding grounds. For me, the Oaks is also a 2 horse race with the front two taking all the beating. I will be nailing my colours to the masts of the favs in both races. |
|
By:
To be clear, both 1st and 2nd favs in both races.
|
|
By:
This is a nice time in the Derby market. As Sandown said, the picture is now clear. We know the runners.
I lost one of my antepost horses, but my main bet is still in. Owners, trainers, breeders, stable staff, jockeys must now worry about the horses remaining sound. Magpies, black cats, the Amato pub, itchy palms, become more important this week. I will give you the winner later in the week when I place my last bets (antepost speak: when I get my weekly pocketmoney  ) |
|
By:
I post as Diomed on boards.ie
My Derby guesswork is here, post #68 http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=95722465#post95722465 |
|
By:
Zawraq
|
|
By:
im away so didnt get to pick up last weeks weekender.
what were mordins dosage selections? suspect this years could throw up an outsider with most of the front fo the market looking like doubtful stayers. |
|
By:
injury scare for zawraq,apparently took a lame step after working this morning.
|
|
By:
Canaletto price coming in all the time.Moore to ride?
|
|
By:
Injury scare, flood of money for horse ...
... next is "man walks into Chelmsford bookies and places £50,000 cash on Elm Park" story. |
|
By:
Injury scare after a 'good workout'. Maybe he never worked well enough. Not looking great, is it ?
|
|
By:
We have seen it all before Kincsem, have we not? All grist to the mill.
|
|
By:
The injury scare for Zawraq is of concern but with luck he will run given that the cut appears to be superficial. Anyhow, the next 36 hours will tell.
On Golden Horn, I've gone back over my data for Dante winners to see how GH compares. Although he looked impressive at York, on comparison he is no more than an average winner of the Dante imo.Sure, he showed a turn of foot but his fractions were below that of quite a few previous winners who went on to win at Epsom such as Authorized, Motivator, Erhaab. better figures were also shown by hwinners who failed at epsom such as Tartan Bearer, Black bear island,Carlton house, Bonfire. GH's final time performance was nothing exceptiional either,being below all those mentioned. his time and pace splits compare close to that of Workforce. That horse was much more certain to be suited by 12f however. On balance, I do not believe that GH should be as short as he is although it would be foolish to say that won't win unlike Dawn Approach who i was confident would not stay and was a definite lay. |
|
By:
sandown hope your doing alright
what do you think to the fact of golden horn sitting right out of the speed duel up front at york and getting a perfect trip? or did you not think the fractions set up front were anything special iyo? really tight derby this imo and am not keen to take the short odds on this favorite myself, jack hobbs really appeals but his awkward head carriage worries me...read a trends piece from a guy who clearly done his homework and none of the horses at the top fit the bill, will dig it up and post for those that like a trends read it isn't a particularly strong derby class wise is it but neither have been the last few derbys imo don't get this gamble today on the canaletto horse he stuck his head in the air when the jockey really went for him last time and it looked a poor race on paper as well |
|
By:
The Epsom Derby is widely known as one of the most difficult races to win for a three year old thoroughbred. The undulations of the Epsom racecourse have undone many potential stars in their quest to win the most valuable race to be run in Britain.
For a start the stamina required for such a young horse comes under serious scrutiny and no matter what the breeding says many horses go into this race uncertain on whether or not he will be able last the distance. One trend that helps in this department is that all of the last 15 winners had won a race over 7f as a two year old. The next thing which is important is current form, it’s pretty crucial that any horse wanting to lift this classic race needs to be on top of his game leading up to the race and again its no coincidence that the last twelve winners had been either first or second on their previous two starts before arriving at Epsom and none of them had been out of the frame in their careers which suggests you need a vey consistent type of horse to win this contest and in fact eight of the last ten winners had been successful last time out. Also the last dozen winners had run within 35 days of the Derby and were spot on come race day fitness wise. Looking further at current form we will find that the last ten winners have been placed in one of the main Derby trials either in this country or abroad. Only top class horses can win this Group 1 race and a trend that stands up year after year is that every winner in the last 20 years at least made their debuts at a Grade 1 racecourse. You wouldn’t think that this was so important but the stats don’t lie and obviously the trainers know what they may have at home and aim them straight for the top and contest some of the best two year olds races as juveniles, which just happen to be at the best tracks. The betting is always a good guide to any race and when we look back at the starting prices for Derby winners we find that since 2000 no horse has started at over 7/1 suggesting that the race often goes to form and the outsiders have little chance in causing an upset here although only four favourites have been successful in that period, the last one being Camelot in 2012. Main Trends In The Last Ten Years All ten winners had run and been placed over 7f as a 2yo. All ten winners had been placed in their last two races. Every winner had made their debuts at a Grade 1 track. The biggest priced winner since 1998 is 7/1. Only three clear favourites have won since 2002. |
|
By:
Australia was favourite last year
|
|
By:
i believe this maybe a year out of date steamship
|
|
By:
Harry C
As the Derby is the top prize for 3 y colts over middle distances it would be very surprising if the winners didn't conform to the stats posted.The better the horse the more likely it is to have won all/most of its races,been thought of highly early on, introduced at top tracks and tested over at least 7f at 2 yrs.As its not a handicap, you would expect the market to get right so that winners fit into say first 3/4 in betting. Not sure how any of that helps us though. There have been turn ups as you know and with question marks on stamina and ground against a few this year it wouldn't surprise if there was another one. No outstanding horse means anything might win. Nevertheless, the percentage call is with the front end. GH's dante run was pretty good but not exceptional. For me, he has to improve again to be an average Derby winner and the extra distance puts a question mark against him especially as the owner/breeder nows the family inside out and has always seen him as a 10f horse because of that. It was a no-brainer to supplement him because what do they have to lose if he doen't stay? Just confirmation of what they thought whereas should in win in a year with no outstanding horse in the race, his bloodstock value would soar. A bet to nothing. The problem is there is no outstanding bit of form that gives a clear lead which is why I'm keen on the potential of Zawraq to be mch better than he has shown. Weld has always rated this horse very highly and the connections now seem to be very bullish on his chances. The cut won't be a problem if he runs. On my figures, admittedly on heavy ground, he showed a decent turn of foot last time and projecting from that I would say he is definatel a G1 horse. What I like is thaat he will imo be much better on good/faster ground. So he could be anything. |
|
By:
Harmonica almost certainly right about Ryan Moore`s intended mount.
|