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Horse Antepost
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These 362 comments are related to the topic:
Derby 2015
Derby 2015
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Replies: 362
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What's the smallest field ever? Don't expect anything other than the fav to be added and must be serious doubts about at least 9 of the 16 left in turning up....
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you have to worry about kilimanjaro, hans holbein as aidan still talking about found for the race, GC looks out the picture now
agree with small field could only see 6 legit runners, golden horn looking on a different planet to me aslong as its good or better, id rather be with a 10f horse than a slow stayer, also couldnt have elm park with counterfit zafariq would quick ground be a worry ? seems to love a bit cut |
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AOB usually runs several when he has no No.1 so i'd doubt it being a small field.
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Zawraq...won his maiden and then a Listed race over a mile...goes into a group 1 over 12f..and is 5/1?
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hans holbein is more of a worry because the sts form look bang average.....sts didnt get the pitch he wanted at chester but did at goodwood....those in behind at goodwood can feel they would have beaten sts ina properly run race.
same goes for sts v hans H. its a dodgy looking race |
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^I agree with this view and am very surprised to see hans holbein so short, it maybe because moore maybe on him but like you say STS missed the kicked that day, as he was supposed to lead...
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I couldn't have any of the O'Brien quoted but I can see why HH is ahead of Kilimanjaro. Firstly, judging by the betting on all their starts it seems that since debut HH has been held in higher regard. Also, historically they've sent their better runners to the Chester trials rather than Lingfield. I agree that the Chester race has a more dodgy look, mainly due to the slow pace Moore was allowed to set, whereas the Lingfield trial was a better run race. That said, Kilimanjaro didn't look entirely at ease with the course and to my eyes didn't look obviously capable of improving on what he achieved that day. In contrast HH handled Chester perfectly well and even though it could be said he had his own way in front he travelled and quickened like a horse capable of better than the bare form.
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Who had been in a battle?
Golden Horn beating Storm The Stars a head in a maiden, pulling 7 lengths clear of the others. Golden Horn in the Dante, beating Jack Hobbs and Elm Park, these three 13 lengths clear of the others. Storm The Stars at Goodwood "hard pressed 1f out, wandered under pressure but stayed on well, in command near finish" Zawraq in his maiden beating Sir Isaac Newton 1/2 length, "ridden 1 1/2f out and soon joined, headed narrowly inside final furlong until rallied under pressure far side to regain advantage closing stages", and 7 lengths clear of the 3rd. Golden Horn/ Zawraq/ Storm The Stars |
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zawraqs win in a listed race over a mile was a pipe opener at an inadquate trip.look at his breeding it screams 1m4f
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Zawraq's pedigree suggests 10 furlongs will be his best trip, imo. He may well stay 12 furlongs but I don't think he is desperate for a 12 furlong trip.
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Agree, even as a Zawraq backer I think it's hard to be too bullish about 12f suiting. Should travel well through Tattenhan Corner and into the straight but how will he come home? In a weak year I think he's the best betting proposition at this point, but I'm a sucker for a Dermot Weld raider.
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shamardal out of a sadlers wells mare? not bad breeding for 12f to me?
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He should stay 12 furlongs but I wouldn't say he was crying out for it. The second dam Sarayir was a 10 furlong horse but has produced Mawatheeq a 12 furlong Group winner by Danzig, so Zawraq's dam Sundus should be capable of producing a 12 furlong horse as she is by Sadler's Wells who is a much greater influence for stamina than Danzig.
Shamardal was a miler/10 furlong horse. I would be quite confident that Zawraq will stay 12 furlongs, but the issue is that you have to truly stay to win the Derby. I would be concerned that something might just outstay him towards the finish but he might just have enough class to get home even if he would prefer a 10 furlong trip. |
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very imformative jack,thanks.i wonder how smullen will ride him?go for home early or a late run..?
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Kilmanjaro on the drift.Doubtful runner?
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i think its due to possably found or Gleneagles taking there chance they ave to run the trail winners surly
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Kilimanjaro price just correcting imo. Looks more likely to end up in the Albert Bartlett than be a champion 3-y-o and with talk of SUMBAL and/or KARPINO being supp'd plus SUCCESS DAYS and, now, Epicuris being given the nod there's no way Killi should be less then 30 and probably a good bit bigger.
Speaking of which, if anyone can make Betfair add SUMBAL, KARPINO and SUCCESS DAYS to the list I'd be grateful....they're just not listening to me. |
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both sumbal and success days were there originally I ring them up and c wat we can do but don't hold your breathe
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I know, sinfin, I know. They add these horses in, to which I'm sure we're all grateful, but then take the effing things out for no logical reason whatsoever at the scratching stage and refuse to put them back in again. I'm tearing my hair out sitting on chunks of Sumbal green and wanting to eliminate a Karpino red but they're steadfastly refusing to allow us to trade these horses......largely cos they've painted themselves in to a corner with this @rse about face policy and will now roger the market adding them back in. I think. Maybe. Lord knows what's going on tbh...
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A race full of ifs and buts this year.
The Derby is a profile race par excellance. First stop is usually to find a 12f horse with enough speed to show up well in good class at 8f or 10f. Can't find one this year unfortunately. I don't see GH as a 12f horse myself which is not to say that he can't win.But 2/1 is a poor price for one where there are major stamina doubts.Interesting that Gosden will be sending JH as well. He's much more likely to stay 12f imo , he wasn't far behind GH in the Dante and he has a chance of reversing the places if GH doesn't stay. Liked the way he handled the track at Epsom today as that was one of my concerns. Got to be of some interest at the price. The fact that Coolmore are considering running Found in this race speaks volumes for their colts being sub-standard and/or they think a great deal of Found. I thought that she ran very well on Sunday and the winner could be special. Found looks like a 12f filly to me and if she runs in the Oaks she has a great chance. The Derby is a different kettle of fish. Elm Park should stay OK but he doesn't exactly exciting. Should run close for a place. Zawraq is intriguing.Connections seem very bullish. You have to look beyond his bare form although the second last time franked the form in on Sunday in the Irish 2000 Gns.One thing I do think, this is a top of the ground horse and the fact that he has managed to win on very soft ground suggests that he could improve a lot for better ground.Is he a 12f horse? Maybe more so than GH imo but I couldn't be uber confident about that. a So far I have JH and Zawraq in the book as winners but with the possibility of more coming in at the supplementary stage, I'll be keeping most of my powder dry for the time being. |
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From what i have seen of the Derby trial winners & runners along with some of the Ire form, the two standouts on performance (not including our 2000gns winner, as he wont run imo) Golden Horn & Zawraq look the class acts of the field & are priced up already as so. None of the 2 are certain to stay the Derby trip on breading, but of the 2 i think Golden Horn will prob get it just the better (Dante winner over an extended 10f readily) granted gd/fast ground he will take all the beating imo. If both the above mentioned get the trip well enough, i would expect them to be way to gd for the rest.
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i see a journalist coming out with the old "settles so well in his races should see out the trip" cliche. An alarm bell went off when I read that.
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The Dante might be an extended 10f, but compare the 154.5 seconds Derby standard time with the 127.2 Dante standard time.
12f 10y for the Derby with those times makes the Dante look like 9.9f. The 140 foot hill at Epsom makes it a long 12f, or makes the Dante look like a short 10f by comparison. |
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quite funny the comments with jack hobbs by connections - i like him but he was still hanging with the rider off just a steady breeze, he is going to be a tricky ride even if he gets his ground
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The greatest Derby jockey ever (L.K. Piggott) once said that in a normal year, due to the nature of course, if you can stay 10f it is usually enough to win the race.
That augurs well for Golden Horn, Zarwaq and dare I say it Gleneagles. C'mon Coolmore, what have you got to lose? If he doesn't stay then back to a mile. There's only one Derby.... |
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The Derby is littered with favourites who failed because they didn't stay. Usually Gns winners, their supporters used the same arguments as you BBC. The fact is the Derby is a stiff test both because of the pace and the first 4 furlongs of uphill climb which sorts out any with stamina limitations. The only horse that Piggott won on who might have been better at 10f was Sir Ivor, but make no mistake, Sir Ivor did stay 12f.
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Je adore cette femme
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Lester being loosely quoted on here
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Sandown you are spot on about the first four furlongs+ uphill acting as a filter.
Years ago i was lucky to get to the course on Oaks day at about 11am so with few people around went for a walk on the track from the 1m4f start. It looks flat on the telly but it isn't. People say The Curragh is a stiff mile with over 20 feet of a rise. Epsom rises 140 feet on the Derby course. |
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New Approach pulled his head off for the first four furlongs and still won.
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Dawn Approach pulled his head off for the first four and didn't.
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Last throw of the dice for Sandro Botti tomorrow night?
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No Karpino supp btw....
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Of course a horse has to be able stay 12f to win the Derby but staying is relative and it's plausible that some who stay enough to win might be better at 10f. All 3yos receive 2lbs more from their elders over 12f than 10f in early June so by definition of the wfa scale the average 3yo is 2lbs better over the shorter distance (I'd say nearer 3lbs). It can be argued any 3yo that's more than 2lbs better over 10f than 12f is more of a 10f performer. The trainers of Australia and Authorized both said after their Derby wins that both horses were better over 10f. Not that I necessarily agree with their views but that was their opinion.
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Has anyone asked Betfair to add Karpino to the market?
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Have just seen he's not a runner
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HM - I also asked them to put Sumbal back in, but they said they'd be waiting till he was supp'ed.
Crazy, crazy way to do things. There's no logic to it whatsoever. When I tweeted to ask for Sumbal, they tweeted back, "Is that for the English Greyhound Derby?" I actually felt quite sorry for him/her after that. |
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Sumbal in Prix Du Jockey Club, more likely?
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How can they justify any of this, Pete? I've got a fat green next to this horse and they're preventing me trade it for no good reason. There is a reason they're carrying on like this and I can only assume it's pretty murky. The horse was originally put in the market because he might get supp'd. He still might get supp'd but we've been denied the chance to balance our books for nearly a week now.....just at the point when there was interest in the horse and the supplementary question was being raised. If he goes to Chantilly I'll be fuming mate, and that unworkable mess of a department will have cost me plenty (again).
Meanwhile, Found...who is in pretty much the same boat as Sumbal....is quite happily sitting at the foot of market. |